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Every system can work

  • #21
  • Dec 21, 2014 3:39am Dec 21, 2014 3:39am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Big A, When you say "system", are you referring to entries and exits, or merely entries? And does "system" include MM (position sizing and account risk management)? Also, when you say you can "make any system profitable", does this mean applying some discretion regarding the entries (e.g. if a trend following system, pick pairs that are most volatile or trending strongly; avoid consolidations, 'slow' sessions, trading into strong S/R 'headwind', etc), or are you saying that the edge lies in in exits (e.g. cutting losses quickly, and letting...

Good day to you, David,

when I say system I have in mind some set of rules based on which traders open and close positions aiming to have some profit. Of course, every aspect you have mentioned are important (when, what size position to open and close). However, what I have learned that discretion is the most important of them all. It also makes the difference between bots and human traders. This is also the the main reason why mechanical trading will never make such a profit as emotional one... And this is exactly the reason why human traders fail when apply mechanical trading as they have emotions after all and mechanical systems have a very slight edge - all the time they apply the same set of rules. This slight edge is ruined by human traders. One of the investments company where I live uses only bots for FX trading (people just make sure the bots are running). They have over 300 bots running at the same time and making 2 - 3 % per month. Now human traders can make hundreds and thousands % per year and also burn all their accounts as well So what I am trying to say that if we minimize the risk of the loss (MM) and concentrate on the most probable entries (discretion) we can make any system (set of rules) work for us.

A.
For my fallen angels.
  • #22
  • Dec 21, 2014 4:09am Dec 21, 2014 4:09am
Quoting Big_A
However, what I have learned that discretion is the most important of them all. It also makes the difference between bots and human traders. This is also the the main reason why mechanical trading will never make such a profit as emotional one...
Thanks for your very interesting reply.

I've reached exactly the same conclusion that discretion is the vital difference, and I posted my thoughts and experiences here.

Great minds think alike? LOL.
  • #23
  • Dec 21, 2014 4:26am Dec 21, 2014 4:26am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Dear Sir Big_A, I am a poor fisherman from Cyprus, started trading in 2007, lost everything. People think I am a big trader and a rich person, but swear I am neither a big trader nor rich. Here is my losing system: 1. I wait for the price to hit a Weekly Open, Close, High or Low. 2. When pa hits this level, I go against the move, expecting a bounce. 3. My stop Loss is few pips away from the next such level (Weekly Open, Close, High or Low) and to be on safe side, my Take Profit is several pips nearer than the next such historical level in...
Thank you. I reckon this is the mechanical system and should be working as it is. Several things that I would change:

1. Use only weekly high and low and only previous week (not the current) as that is already set in stone and could not be changed. Many bots work on these levels.
2. Use very tight SL, say 10 pips. MM: close 1/2 position at 50 pips, trail the rest with 1/3 daily (10 periods) ATR.
3. Now slight discretion : open position only if price moved to weekly level at least 2/3 daily (10 periods) ATR.

However as I am not the big fan of such a mechanical type trading I would slightly change your entry rule (if you still want trade weekly levels). I would fade the move looking at the 1H chart: wait for a price to hit weekly level and enter only if the price goes below / above 1 H candle with a stop below / above 1 H candle like in the pic below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 111.jpg Size: 57 KB


A.
For my fallen angels.
  • #24
  • Dec 21, 2014 4:48am Dec 21, 2014 4:48am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Hi Big A Interesting thread. The system I submit is the Trading Chaos system from Bill Williams. It has been around for many years and it is a complete system. For some odd reason, most people cannot make it work for them. Give it a shot.
Goodol' Billy, huh? I've started my trading using his system...

Perfect method to make some buck and I am sure the method works as it is if applied correctly. Slight changes would be: discard fractals, AO and AC, Aligator (any MA actually) will do.

Trade the pair that is busy with fundamentals (look at the calendar with most important news), or EURUSD (European session), USDJPY (American) or AUDJPY (Asian session), use 1 h chart. Enter at the end of 1 H candle if Aligator aligned and price touches the jaw. SL 1 pip below entry candle. Trail TP or use rigid 1/2 position 30 pips and the rest daily (10 periods) atr pips. Or use any other TP method (I prefer moving SL and not seting TP at all)

Look at the chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled - 1.jpg Size: 123 KB



Cheers!
For my fallen angels.
  • #25
  • Dec 21, 2014 5:01am Dec 21, 2014 5:01am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Thanks for your very interesting reply. I've reached exactly the same conclusion that discretion is the vital difference, and I posted my thoughts and experiences here. Great minds think alike? LOL.
Excellent post.
For my fallen angels.
  • #26
  • Dec 21, 2014 5:04am Dec 21, 2014 5:04am
Quoting Big_A
{quote} Goodol' Billy, huh? I've started my trading using his system... Perfect method to make some buck and I am sure the method works as it is if applied correctly. Slight changes would be: discard fractals, AO and AC, Aligator (any MA actually) will do. Trade the pair that is busy with fundamentals (look at the calendar with most important news), or EURUSD (European session), USDJPY (American) or AUDJPY (Asian session), use 1 h chart. Enter at the end of 1 H candle if Aligator aligned and price touches the jaw. SL 1 pip below entry candle....
Ha! That's funny because I cut my trading teeth with him too!

I just wondered how long you have been trading.....obviously it has been for a long time

And you are quite right, any system will work with proper asset allocation.

Cheers!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #27
  • Dec 21, 2014 9:29am Dec 21, 2014 9:29am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Thanks for your very interesting reply. I've reached exactly the same conclusion that discretion is the vital difference, and I posted my thoughts and experiences here. Great minds think alike? LOL.
I'm a big fan of "discretion" and intuition.

Am hoping this thread will prove that to the noobs out there still looking for one-size-fits-all black boxes and holy grails...

Tracking this thread with great interest!
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #28
  • Dec 21, 2014 10:12am Dec 21, 2014 10:12am


New sucker born in trading
  • #29
  • Dec 21, 2014 10:26am Dec 21, 2014 10:26am
Quoting Big_A
{quote} Thank you. I reckon this is the mechanical system and should be working as it is. Several things that I would change: 1. Use only weekly high and low and only previous week (not the current) as that is already set in stone and could not be changed. Many bots work on these levels. 2. Use very tight SL, say 10 pips. MM: close 1/2 position at 50 pips, trail the rest with 1/3 daily (10 periods) ATR. 3. Now slight discretion : open position only if price moved to weekly level at least 2/3 daily (10 periods) ATR. However as I am not the big...
chicky!!!!!!!!!!!
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #30
  • Dec 21, 2014 10:31am Dec 21, 2014 10:31am
no system work in forex!!!!!! when you say system you stuck with some fixed point's. don't you.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #31
  • Dec 21, 2014 10:37am Dec 21, 2014 10:37am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Dear Sir Big_A, I am a poor fisherman from Cyprus, started trading in 2007, lost everything. People think I am a big trader and a rich person, but swear I am neither a big trader nor rich. Here is my losing system: 1. I wait for the price to hit a Weekly Open, Close, High or Low. 2. When pa hits this level, I go against the move, expecting a bounce. 3. My stop Loss is few pips away from the next such level (Weekly Open, Close, High or Low) and to be on safe side, my Take Profit is several pips nearer than the next such historical level in...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #32
  • Dec 21, 2014 9:13pm Dec 21, 2014 9:13pm
Quoting Big_A
{quote} Thank you. I reckon this is the mechanical system and should be working as it is. Several things that I would change: 1. Use only weekly high and low and only previous week (not the current) as that is already set in stone and could not be changed. Many bots work on these levels. 2. Use very tight SL, say 10 pips. MM: close 1/2 position at 50 pips, trail the rest with 1/3 daily (10 periods) ATR. 3. Now slight discretion : open position only if price moved to weekly level at least 2/3 daily (10 periods) ATR. However as I am not the big...
Thank you Sir Big_A, I will try follow these advises.

http://www.tcm.com/mediaroom/video/2...m-No-Spy-.html
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #33
  • Dec 21, 2014 9:42pm Dec 21, 2014 9:42pm
Who are you?
  • #34
  • Dec 22, 2014 1:09am Dec 22, 2014 1:09am
Quoting Pharm0r
Who are you?
I am your shadow
The strangle of darkness
Untold despair
of an inner decay
I am the ruler
of unknown pleasures
The closing time
of an eternal joy
I am the omen
I am the beast master
The fallen angel
From the heavenly sky

A.
For my fallen angels.
  • #35
  • Dec 22, 2014 1:54am Dec 22, 2014 1:54am
Hello big A,
I have a system and I would like you take a look and tell me if it can be improved and how but I don't want to post it publicly at this moment. How can I reach you?

Thanks
  • #36
  • Dec 22, 2014 2:41am Dec 22, 2014 2:41am
Quoting tradenirvana
Hello big A, I have a system and I would like you take a look and tell me if it can be improved and how but I don't want to post it publicly at this moment. How can I reach you? Thanks
Send me PM.
For my fallen angels.
  • #37
  • Dec 22, 2014 3:16am Dec 22, 2014 3:16am
Hi Big_A,
Nice, interesting thread, thank you for it.
What could you do with this simple system:
Enter in the direction of visible trend. Wait for a pullback, when a counter trend is forming. Enter when a candle closes above / below the counter trendline. The RR must be at least 1.5. Stop loss is at the end of the counter trend, take profit is at the local endpoint of the trend.
Image attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 11 KB
  • #38
  • Dec 22, 2014 3:34am Dec 22, 2014 3:34am
Quoting Briian
Hi Big_A, Nice, interesting thread, thank you for it. What could you do with this simple system: Enter in the direction of visible trend. Wait for a pullback, when a counter trend is forming. Enter when a candle closes above / below the counter trendline. The RR must be at least 1.5. Stop loss is at the end of the counter trend, take profit is at the local endpoint of the trend. Image attached. {image}
Thank you.

I think you have well defined rules that should make you a profit already.

Two things I would suggest to consider:

1. To set a stop loss just above / below the candle that crossed and closed beyond the trend line. Try to keep SL as small as possible.
2. Instead of rigid TP look for a counter trend line cross / or price stall or other PA signaling possible major trend is over. Close 2/3 or 3/4 of position and set SL to BE. Leave the rest - some time you will be pleasantly surprised to see counter-trend to end just at the false breakout

Really nice way of trading.

A.
For my fallen angels.
  • #39
  • Dec 22, 2014 4:20am Dec 22, 2014 4:20am
Thank you for you suggestions.
  • #40
  • Dec 25, 2014 5:02am Dec 25, 2014 5:02am
I use the ichimoku system. Mainly looking for retests of break out be they kumo break outs or kijun bounces..

Kijun is the SL and also the TP
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