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Trading is supply and demand

  • #201
  • Dec 19, 2014 8:13am Dec 19, 2014 8:13am
Quoting investing101
Bam, under 1.24 as predicted.

Hi investing101;

I like the idea behind what you are doing here.

But if there's one thing that really annoys me it's when people start to make predictions about Market movement and then think, naively, they have the power to predict the Market.

The Markets don't give a s@$t about us and what we think.

The USD was Bullish across the board on Wednesday 17th caused by the news events highlighted in the image below.

If the news release had gone the other way your prediction of a EUR drop, back, below 1.24 would have been totally wrong.

I was more interested in last weeks Bullish Engulfing close because that has happened, fact, and it's there for all to see.

I was waiting for Momentum to Break above, and then test, 1.25 RN before looking for Bullish PA to go long, which never happened.

The reason for this plan of action was based on what the Market was telling me and not what I thought it should do.

This is just a personal thing of mine I hope you don't take it too personally.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 19th Dec 14 News related Move.png Size: 260 KB
  • #202
  • Dec 19, 2014 9:15am Dec 19, 2014 9:15am
Quoting investing101
Yeah as an example, Your 15 minute chart, 240 min chart, and daily are open in your screen. "I prefer to have multiple time frames up to see things live" 1. So say the the 15 minute is oversold, and the 240min/daily are still going down and not in oversold territory 2. Wait for the 15 minute chart's oscillator to reach overbought territory "pullback" and you will notice if there is any demand for the currency based on how price moves along with the oscillator. You will notice that if larger timeframes are still going down, and the oscillator in...
lol i've got to laugh at this because this is so simple but it makes so much sense. thanks for sharing this i'm printing this and putting it next to my trading screens. i've got my own trading methods that seem to work but i can also use this as a extra precaution.

Thanks for posting
  • #203
  • Dec 19, 2014 9:52am Dec 19, 2014 9:52am
[quote=investing101;7941810]"... So if your monthly is bullish look for discrepancies in your lower time frames. If your daily if bullish look for discrepancies within your smaller time frames. Discrepancies within the small time frames equals quick opportunities while discrepancies within larger time frames like the 4 hour and above equal big moves in the direction of the larger time frames (daily, weekly, or monthly). This is how I determine the direction prices will take....."
Invest 101, thank you very much for sharing. Could you be more specific please? Let's say my daily is bullish and there are discrepancies between daily and 4HR TFs. So, what are my opportunities? Thank you!
  • #204
  • Dec 19, 2014 10:34am Dec 19, 2014 10:34am
Quoting scardi
Quoting investing101
"... So if your monthly is bullish look for discrepancies in your lower time frames. If your daily if bullish look for discrepancies within your smaller time frames. Discrepancies within the small time frames equals quick opportunities while discrepancies within larger time frames like the 4 hour and above equal big moves in the direction of the larger time frames (daily, weekly, or monthly). This is how I determine the direction prices will take....." Invest 101, thank you very much for sharing. Could you be more specific
...
Scardi

You didn't ask me but I'll answer it, 101 is saying if the Daily Stoch has recently come out of Over Sold for example and is going up then you might think that we are Bullish, so you could drop down to a lower time frame, like say H4 and as the Daily Stoch continues to rise you are waiting for the 4 Hour to become over sold and look for long trades
  • #205
  • Dec 19, 2014 11:09am Dec 19, 2014 11:09am
Quoting Candlestick
{quote}{quote} Scardi You didn't ask me but I'll answer it, 101 is saying if the Daily Stoch has recently come out of Over Sold for example and is going up then you might think that we are Bullish, so you could drop down to a lower time frame, like say H4 and as the Daily Stoch continues to rise you are waiting for the 4 Hour to become over sold and look for long trades
Candlestick, thank you for the reply, I thought like you. However in his first post Invest 101 says “If your daily if bullish look for discrepancies within your smaller time frames. Discrepancies within the small time frames equals quick opportunities…..” and I wonder what are these “quick opportunities”.
  • #206
  • Dec 19, 2014 11:22am Dec 19, 2014 11:22am
Quoting scardi
{quote} Candlestick, thank you for the reply, I thought like you. However in his first post Invest 101 says “If your daily if bullish look for discrepancies within your smaller time frames. Discrepancies within the small time frames equals quick opportunities…..” and I wonder what are these “quick opportunities”.

Hi scardi;

If the D1 Stochastic is Bullish drop down to the M15 Chart and wait for it to go "Oversold", it's going to go "Oversold" on M15 quicker than the H4 TF, this equals a quicker opportunity to get into a Trade.

Might be wrong but that would be my understanding of it.
  • #207
  • Dec 19, 2014 11:34am Dec 19, 2014 11:34am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi scardi; If the D1 Stochastic is Bullish drop down to the M15 Chart and wait for it to go "Oversold", it's going to go "Oversold" on M15 quicker than the H4 TF, this equals a quicker opportunity to get into a Trade. Might be wrong but that would be my understanding of it.
Its simple and works all the time.. I see it in my head like this: the daily is like a giant powerfull tsunami wave. the other lower timeframes are little waves that can try and go against it for short periods of time but eventually they get sucked in and have to go with the flow. I think its important to create images in our mind of how things work sometimes, it helps understand MUCH easier.

I have a small issue regarding the daily though, alot of times it will reach overbought/sold but it will continue and not reverse. when should we wait to get in on the new direction? or is this the time we look at the weekly and monthly? thanks guys.
YOUR MOTHERS ASS
  • #208
  • Dec 19, 2014 12:25pm Dec 19, 2014 12:25pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi scardi; If the D1 Stochastic is Bullish drop down to the M15 Chart and wait for it to go "Oversold", it's going to go "Oversold" on M15 quicker than the H4 TF, this equals a quicker opportunity to get into a Trade. Might be wrong but that would be my understanding of it.
Stevepatt, thank you very much! I think you are right. Thank you buddy!
  • #209
  • Dec 19, 2014 1:29pm Dec 19, 2014 1:29pm
Weekly and monthly charts are my trend. Quick opportunities for me means holding for a few minutes to a few hours. If I found discrepancies in the 4hr charts and above that would equal a swing trade for me which could last a few days.
  • #210
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:20pm Dec 19, 2014 3:20pm
A few days ago I warned traders to be careful about going long on Eur as the short trend on the daily chart was still intact. As we can see over the past few days price moved down sharply. Looking at the daily chart we see a new low and the MACD looking divergent.

Price may start to stall to the downside and correct within the next week. Again keep in mind we have Xmas this week so prices may not move in a typical fashion due to lower liquidity.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily 20.12.14.png Size: 80 KB
  • #211
  • Dec 19, 2014 7:09pm Dec 19, 2014 7:09pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Extract from investing101's first post The name of the game is to recognize supply and demand. My method for doing this requires multi-time frames. I prefer to use 15 min, 240 min, and daily. Apply any oscillator of your choice (mine: stochastics RSI) to each of your windows. (Never trade against the direction of an oscillator in a monthly chart, this is your trend). Longer time frames give you the market's trend. So if your monthly is bullish look for discrepancies in your lower time frames. If your daily if bullish look for discrepancies...

That's a great post on how to use stochastic with supply and demand zones to gauge price momentum at a level, interesting
  • #212
  • Dec 19, 2014 9:43pm Dec 19, 2014 9:43pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi cuchuflito; I don't care what any Indicator is saying I see the Monthly is in a Bearish Trend. {image}

Right on Steve...........the monthly is very bearish!
  • #213
  • Dec 20, 2014 7:18am Dec 20, 2014 7:18am
This question does not belong here as such but I want to do the same, please don´t take it the wrong way. But since its better to have more money when trading can I ask you what you did to save $30000 just after High School?

Now you just graduated College and saved up $70000 again. I assume while in College?´What did you do? Working in the oil fields? please tell.
  • #214
  • Dec 20, 2014 11:58am Dec 20, 2014 11:58am
Can I place an order when candle colors in all TF turn same??
Success - It's not always what you see
  • #215
  • Dec 20, 2014 12:52pm Dec 20, 2014 12:52pm
Quoting investing101
{quote} Is isn't hard to understand, if your big time frames are bullish (weekly, monthly) look for bearish situations in your small time frames (oversold oscillator).
Hi investing101,
Thanks for your reply.

I want to confirm, IF Bigger TF (monthly, Weekly bullish), find smaller TF (Hourly) oversold IN order to BUY at this TF (hourly)?

Thanks,
anton
  • #216
  • Dec 20, 2014 1:17pm Dec 20, 2014 1:17pm
Inserted Video




Inserted Video
  • #217
  • Dec 20, 2014 2:31pm Dec 20, 2014 2:31pm
Thanks for the videos..very informative and applicable. More would be appreciated. Will incorporate into my trading.
  • #218
  • Dec 20, 2014 5:00pm Dec 20, 2014 5:00pm
Quoting podberry
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIf28eUY4MY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZrXPJKuk-s
Sir, I have gone through your two videos above where exactly you trade n I would Like to FOLLOW your trades next week to learn.
  • #219
  • Dec 20, 2014 5:31pm Dec 20, 2014 5:31pm
Quoting podberry
Hi behman This is the way I trade personally, I am not the "video maker" but would encourage you to do the same, in essence it is trading off support and resistance. I have done bloody well using this technique though. Thanks for your interest, hope it helps many. Tip: If you have a day job, used the 4H and D1's. Indicators are lagging, always trade what you see as per the videos, best way the trade my friend
Thank you Podberry for your words of encouragement! I will trade from Ms 15 only from next week onwards while looking at hr 4 n hr 1 trend. But I request you to put your trade here when you take so that i can also copy that n study for myself the idea behind that particular trade why you did that!
  • #220
  • Dec 20, 2014 5:35pm Dec 20, 2014 5:35pm
Quoting podberry
Hi behman This is the way I trade personally, I am not the "video maker" but would encourage you to do the same, in essence it is trading off support and resistance. I have done bloody well using this technique though. Thanks for your interest, hope it helps many. Tip: If you have a day job, used the 4H and D1's. Indicators are lagging, always trade what you see as per the videos, best way the trade my friend
Currently I am in hole of some $425. I had taken positions in all Jpy pairs shorting them looking at the bloody weekly bearengulfing bar last week. So from 12/16/2014 onwards I am in sell positions. n all of a sudden it turned on me! Us, Aud, Nzd gbp all !! When do you think they would turn down again? I have sold from usd/jpy 115.74 usd/jpy 182.55.
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