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Every system can work

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 18, 2014 1:14am Dec 18, 2014 1:14am
I am certain that every system if used discretely and wisely can be profitable. From 1 tick charts to weekly line graph, from simple MA to complex Elliot or mystic Gann calculations - everything actually brings profit.

If you have system / approach in question share it here and I show you how it could be adjusted / leave it as it is and to be profitable.

Cheers!
For my fallen angels.
  • #2
  • Dec 18, 2014 8:04am Dec 18, 2014 8:04am
Big A, sounds like a fun exercise. I am new here but let's give this a go.

2 min chart - coin flip: head is buy, tail is sell. How about that?
  • #3
  • Dec 18, 2014 9:44am Dec 18, 2014 9:44am
Quoting stevenwgm83
Big A, sounds like a fun exercise. I am new here but let's give this a go. 2 min chart - coin flip: head is buy, tail is sell. How about that?
That's simple - any kind of a martingale will go. Keep your final martingale multiplier at the 25 % - 30 % of all account risk and then start over if you fail.

Of course, this is just a joke poke.

Seriously, coin flip has nothing to do with price itself and so it can not be applied to trading.
For my fallen angels.
  • #4
  • Dec 18, 2014 11:31am Dec 18, 2014 11:31am
Big A - so you are using trade maintenance to make the system profitable?

Try again. 2 min chart. 20EMA.
  • #5
  • Dec 18, 2014 12:13pm Dec 18, 2014 12:13pm
Ain't a system.
For my fallen angels.
  • #6
  • Dec 18, 2014 2:37pm Dec 18, 2014 2:37pm
[quote=stevenwgm83;7953166]Big A, sounds like a fun exercise. I am new here but let's give this a go. 2 min chart - coin flip: head is buy, tail is sell. How about that?[/quote]


Yes, even a coin flip entry system can be made profitable :-)

http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-is...anagement.html
  • #7
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:04pm Dec 18, 2014 6:04pm
Hi Big_A!

What about a simple MA or S/R strategy.
For the S/R System we trade on pullbacks and for the MA we just trade the crossover.
No idea about the SL or TP, thats the thing, like how would you optimize that?
  • #8
  • Dec 18, 2014 8:21pm Dec 18, 2014 8:21pm
If you have a big account or cent account you can win always by martiangle stratgies no need to any analysis because market goes from zero to one then back to zero it isba cycle if you could survive through it you are abwinner
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #9
  • Dec 18, 2014 8:26pm Dec 18, 2014 8:26pm
Quoting stevenwgm83
Big A - so you are using trade maintenance to make the system profitable? Try again. 2 min chart. 20EMA.
Quoting Big_A
Ain't a system.
Good day to you, Big_A.

I understand your rationale how you would reject a coin flip as a system, but why can't a M2 chart and a 20EMA be a system or at least part of a system?

Is it because stevenwgm83 did not outline his system in more detail i.e. entry/exit/MM rules?

Anyway, I agree with your basic premise that (regardless of how unlikely it may be) every system can be made to be profitable. Whether time should be spent to make a seemingly unlikely "edge" work is dependent on the individual trader's personal circumstances, I suppose.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #10
  • Edited Dec 19, 2014 12:02am Dec 18, 2014 11:42pm | Edited Dec 19, 2014 12:02am
Dear Big_A,

I have a system but always fail. I tested it from 2011~present with XAUUSD H1.
It reaches 180k USD in the middle of 2k12 from the begining 10k, then fall down quickly to be below 1k at the begining of 2k14.
Here is the system:

Longs:
Buy: main of Bollinger Bands goes up && Price>that main && Fracture(low)==true
Add: main of Bollinger Bands goes up && Fracture(low)==true && interval==true
Close: main of Bollinger Bands goes down && Price<that main && Fracture(high)==true

vice versa for Shorts.

Not sure if anyone can help me make it profitable? Thanks a lot in advance.

Best regards
  • #11
  • Dec 19, 2014 12:13am Dec 19, 2014 12:13am
Quoting skenobi
{quote} {quote} Is it because stevenwgm83 did not outline his system in more detail i.e. entry/exit/MM rules?
Good day Skenobi,

that was the reason, yes. I don't want to make / build a system or respond to trolls If one has a system and still can't make it work I would gladly try my best to make it work

Surely, any line on the chart (MA, trendline... name it) could be made to make profit and I bet you know that and even better than me
For my fallen angels.
  • #12
  • Dec 19, 2014 12:16am Dec 19, 2014 12:16am
Quoting Rodlex
Hi Big_A! What about a simple MA or S/R strategy. For the S/R System we trade on pullbacks and for the MA we just trade the crossover. No idea about the SL or TP, thats the thing, like how would you optimize that?
That's more than enough to make out a system. If you could elaborate more on your entries I could try and make with you to find a way to trade it successfully. Do not care now about MM (TP and SL). We can talk that later.
For my fallen angels.
  • #13
  • Dec 19, 2014 12:20am Dec 19, 2014 12:20am
Quoting srt
Big A, sounds like a fun exercise. I am new here but let's give this a go. 2 min chart - coin flip: head is buy, tail is sell. How about that? Yes, even a coin flip entry system can be made profitable :-) http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-is...anagement.html
I don't want to repeat myself as I have already answered that. To add to this, you can try trading according Moon phases, Sun radioactivity or J&M chain psalm letters number in words. However, it has nothing to do with price even it will come to be more profitable than just simple coin flip.

Cheers.
For my fallen angels.
  • #14
  • Dec 19, 2014 12:22am Dec 19, 2014 12:22am
Quoting orabi
If you have a big account or cent account you can win always by martiangle stratgies no need to any analysis because market goes from zero to one then back to zero it isba cycle if you could survive through it you are abwinner
Any martingale has nothing to do with trading if applied blindly (without looking to PA and fundamentals).
For my fallen angels.
  • #15
  • Edited 1:23am Dec 19, 2014 12:55am | Edited 1:23am
Quoting jollydragon
Dear Big_A, I have a system but always fail. I tested it from 2011~present with XAUUSD H1. It reaches 180k USD in the middle of 2k12 from the begining 10k, then fall down quickly to be below 1k at the begining of 2k14. Here is the system: Longs: Buy: main of Bollinger Bands goes up && Price>that main && Fracture(low)==true Add: main of Bollinger Bands goes up && Fracture(low)==true && interval==true Close: main of Bollinger Bands goes down && Price<that main && Fracture(high)==true vice versa...
From my own experience I can tell you that mechanical systems work at the specific period of time. If you want really just a pure mechanical system then I would recommend you to work with statistics a lot. Find specific statistics about periods during a day and week (hourly, daily) and trade with your bot only when statistics say it has the biggest probability to move. Limit trades / position opening to most profitable hours according to stats to 1 or 2 per week. Additionally, look at the fundamentals - is there favorable conditions overall for the gold to move. You can simplify this by technical analysis, say if price D1 is under 20 (or /50/200) MA then short only. Also I can guess that you SL is too wide. Hope it helps a bit.
For my fallen angels.
  • #16
  • Dec 19, 2014 1:22am Dec 19, 2014 1:22am
Quoting Big_A
{quote} Firsty from my own experience I can tell you that mechanical systems work at the specific period of time. If you want really pure mechanical system then I would recommend you to work with statistics a lot. Find specific statistics about periods during a day and week and trade with your bot only when statistics say it has the biggest probability to move. Limit trades / position openning to most profitable hours according to stats to 1 or 2 per week. Additionally, look at the fundamentals - is there favourable conditions overall fkr the gold...
Dear Big_A,

thanks for your guide. Will try again later based on your advice.
To be honest, so far I haven't worked out any EA can make money for a period over 2 years.
It approves I still need learn more from others.
Really hope someone can help me and guide me so that I don't waste time on a wrong way!
However, don't know who can be my noble teacher.
  • #17
  • Dec 20, 2014 4:52am Dec 20, 2014 4:52am
Quoting Big_A
{quote} From my own experience I can tell you that mechanical systems work at the specific period of time...
I agree with you Big A, mechanical systems (not all) work for a limited period of time or just for specific market conditions (high volatility, ranging markets, etc).Also, the title of this thread intrigued me so I just stepped in to see what is this all about. I don't really think that EVERY system can work, just by tweaking the money management. If you change a lot within a system, you already create another one.Do you have a simple example of a system that could be changed from a loser to even a +0.5 % per month without modifying it too much?
  • #18
  • Edited 11:31pm Dec 20, 2014 11:12pm | Edited 11:31pm
Quoting Big_A
I am certain that every system if used discretely and wisely can be profitable.
Big A,

When you say "system", are you referring to entries and exits, or merely entries?
And does "system" include MM (position sizing and account risk management)?

Also, when you say you can "make any system profitable", does this mean applying some discretion regarding the entries (e.g. if a trend following system, pick pairs that are most volatile or trending strongly; avoid consolidations, 'slow' sessions, trading into strong S/R 'headwind', etc), or are you saying that the edge lies in in exits (e.g. cutting losses quickly, and letting profitable trades run — as described in the link in srt's post #6), or in the MM (e.g. add to losses, use martingale, etc)?

Just trying to get a handle on where you're coming from.

Many thanks, and compliments of the season to you,
David
  • #19
  • Dec 20, 2014 11:59pm Dec 20, 2014 11:59pm
Quoting Big_A
I am certain that every system if used discretely and wisely can be profitable. From 1 tick charts to weekly line graph, from simple MA to complex Elliot or mystic Gann calculations - everything actually brings profit. If you have system / approach in question share it here and I show you how it could be adjusted / leave it as it is and to be profitable. Cheers!
Dear Sir Big_A, I am a poor fisherman from Cyprus, started trading in 2007, lost everything. People think I am a big trader and a rich person, but swear I am neither a big trader nor rich. Here is my losing system:

1. I wait for the price to hit a Weekly Open, Close, High or Low.
2. When pa hits this level, I go against the move, expecting a bounce.
3. My stop Loss is few pips away from the next such level (Weekly Open, Close, High or Low) and to be on safe side, my Take Profit is several pips nearer than the next such historical level in the opposite direction (that is, the direction in which I have entered).
4. I trade with 20:1 leverage
5. My risk per trade is always 0.25% (1/4th of a percent) of my account equity
6. I never keep more than one position open. If I see a better opportunity. I close my running trade and take that other opportunity. I do this switching only if my currently running trade is in profit.
7. I trade only Eur/Usd.

I will appreciate your help and will be obliged if you could run back test of this method from 1984 to 2014 and let me know the results. Thanks.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #20
  • Dec 21, 2014 2:24am Dec 21, 2014 2:24am
Quoting Big_A
I am certain that every system if used discretely and wisely can be profitable. From 1 tick charts to weekly line graph, from simple MA to complex Elliot or mystic Gann calculations - everything actually brings profit. If you have system / approach in question share it here and I show you how it could be adjusted / leave it as it is and to be profitable. Cheers!
Hi Big A

Interesting thread. The system I submit is the Trading Chaos system from Bill Williams. It has been around for many years and it is a complete system. For some odd reason, most people cannot make it work for them.

Give it a shot.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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