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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #16,701
  • Dec 17, 2014 1:14pm Dec 17, 2014 1:14pm
Hmmm, will we see a touch and go?
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  • #16,702
  • Dec 17, 2014 1:16pm Dec 17, 2014 1:16pm
GU 12h TF

nice bottom building so far
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  • #16,703
  • Dec 17, 2014 2:58pm Dec 17, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} Hi Inf.. where you think it ends B ! or already in 2370 is B? I preferred B ( 2300/50) to go long...because better R/R like stop 2240 TG.. 2610.

Long 2325... risk 2240 .. TG 2610.
my last trade of the year
  • #16,704
  • Dec 17, 2014 3:37pm Dec 17, 2014 3:37pm
Quoting infinitus
Hmmm, will we see a touch and go? {image}
Might be. I also have this on an older diagonal trendline of my own, I call this "retouch from the outer side". Happens quite often and the tricky part is this retouch is mostly deeper than before so that everybody thinks it goes down. The surprise comes soon.

But personally I think going deeper has some arguments too, strong arguments. Maybe it will be a gliding down again until the desired value is reached.
Quite often it is this simple graphic s*** that works.

We will c in the next days.
  • #16,705
  • Dec 17, 2014 4:13pm Dec 17, 2014 4:13pm
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} Might be. I also have this on an older diagonal trendline of my own, I call this "retouch from the outer side". Happens quite often and the tricky part is this retouch is mostly deeper than before so that everybody thinks it goes down. The surprise comes soon. But personally I think going deeper has some arguments too, strong arguments. Maybe it will be a gliding down again until the desired value is reached. Quite often it is this simple graphic s*** that works. We will c in the next days.



From an EW point of view we have now both up and down very overlapping structure.

The whole move down since Oct from the 2887 high is now open to too much interpretations. Even one of my alternative counts calls for a new low maybe in the 2230 area, maybe deeper

On my main count, as shown above, we are in the C-wave impulse down of an ABC-flat. If true, Tokyo may make a new marginal low and then up and away.

I fear we have to wait and see.
  • #16,706
  • Dec 17, 2014 5:16pm Dec 17, 2014 5:16pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} From an EW point of view we have now both up and down very overlapping structure. The whole move down since Oct from the 2887 high is now open to too much interpretations. Even one of my alternative counts calls for a new low maybe in the 2230 ...
Interesting stuff, Fini and C-star. If this gets realized, we may see an old support level of 1.2170-1.2180 which is part of the ol' wave 5 ending diagonal wedge.
1) The daily CCIs are still trending down from overbought levels while all the other TFs are over-sold
2) It just posted a solid daily down-bar which is still bearish
3) On the weekly chart, we still haven't met the major support level from May 2010 - July 2012 - present of 1.2207 which also happens to be a major MM support line

Quite trick so I am also hedge short on all positions at 1.2333, eyeing the 1.2180 - 1.2207 level.
Lost....
  • #16,707
  • Dec 17, 2014 5:18pm Dec 17, 2014 5:18pm
  •  wng
  • | Joined Dec 2014 | Status: Merry Xmas and Happy New Year all! | 44 Posts
I dont use EW but 2400 area gonna be there today. infinitus that formula on stat, are you applying it?
  • #16,708
  • Dec 17, 2014 11:21pm Dec 17, 2014 11:21pm
Quoting wng
I dont use EW but 2400 area gonna be there today. infinitus that formula on stat, are you applying it?

Do you mean the : S = k log W ?


This is the formula for entropy. It means in other words:


entropy is the sum of all micro-states in a macro-state


when entropy gets too high, it may look for a new macro-state


can that be applied to price movements?
  • #16,709
  • Dec 17, 2014 11:50pm Dec 17, 2014 11:50pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Do you mean the : S = k log W ? This is the formula for entropy. It means in other words: entropy is the sum of all micro-states in a macro-state when entropy gets too high, it may look for a new macro-state can that be applied to price movements?

interesting readings about Boltzmann, Boltzmann Brains etc.:


http://www.preposterousuniverse.com/blog/?s=boltzman


http://thewiseoneoncesaid.com/2012/0...er-and-coping/

(not necessarily trading-related)
  • #16,710
  • Dec 17, 2014 11:58pm Dec 17, 2014 11:58pm
  •  wng
  • | Joined Dec 2014 | Status: Merry Xmas and Happy New Year all! | 44 Posts
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Do you mean the : S = k log W ? This is the formula for entropy. It means in other words: entropy is the sum of all micro-states in a macro-state when entropy gets too high, it may look for a new macro-state can that be applied to price movements?
Yes that, i know its meaning...thanks for the readings

Will take a look at it
  • #16,711
  • Dec 18, 2014 2:56am Dec 18, 2014 2:56am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} ....hedge short on all positions at 1.2333, eyeing the 1.2180 - 1.2207 level.
Closed short hedge at 1.2220
Lost....
  • #16,712
  • Dec 18, 2014 5:31am Dec 18, 2014 5:31am
Quoting janpec1000
8 hours till fireworks. If rocket goes down, some great trading day tomorrow and next few weeks. Expected return by end of year +15-30% if we go down.
Well i said 15-30% acc increase and so it was. All EU shorts TPed, +28%. Still shorting.

Meanwhile SNB cut rates, exaclty as i said it will happen ahead of ECB QE. This is signal i was waiting, for which i explained before already, SNB rate cut in December to me means ECB will do QE not in February or March or not do it, but it will be done in January. EURCHF rallied 80 pips and no longs placed on it dammit.
  • #16,713
  • Dec 18, 2014 5:54am Dec 18, 2014 5:54am
EURCHF long 2040, target 2060.
  • #16,714
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:10am Dec 18, 2014 6:10am
Quoting wng
{quote} Yes that, i know its meaning...thanks for the readings Will take a look at it

Hi WNG,

ups, forgot to answer your initial question (if I would apply the formula for trading):

no, I do not. Have no clue, when entropy would be too high to force price in a new macro-state
  • #16,715
  • Dec 18, 2014 7:05am Dec 18, 2014 7:05am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Well i said 15-30% acc increase and so it was. All EU shorts TPed, +28%. Still shorting. Meanwhile SNB cut rates, exaclty as i said it will happen ahead of ECB QE. This is signal i was waiting, for which i explained before already, SNB rate cut in December to me means ECB will do QE not in February or March or not do it, but it will be done in January. EURCHF rallied 80 pips and no longs placed on it dammit.
I do not see the relationship with SNB rate cut and more pressure for Draghi to execute the QE. Would you explain it???
  • #16,716
  • Dec 18, 2014 7:34am Dec 18, 2014 7:34am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} I do not see the relationship with SNB rate cut and more pressure for Draghi to execute the QE. Would you explain it???
SNB rate cut was executed to devalue CHF and push EURCHF up from floor which SNB has to defened. When QE will be announced, EUR will drop hard, which would put emidiate strong pressure on 1.2000 floor which SNB would have to defend for day, weeks even months, it would be very costly. Much easier way is to cut CHF rate, let EURCHF rally and have space few hundred pips for ECHF to drop once QE is announced so that there is no severe pressure in floor.

Also mind why rate cut is pointing towards QE is becouse if SNB would have no info for any QE plans, they wouldnt use such drastic measure as rate cut, which is quite significant for Swiss banking, so the way you can explain their action is that they know something big is coming from ECB soon, and they have to have room.
  • #16,717
  • Dec 18, 2014 8:14am Dec 18, 2014 8:14am
[quote=janpec1000;7953076]{quote} SNB rate cut was executed to devalue CHF and push EURCHF up from floor which SNB has to defened.

I had thought about the first part, totally agree.SNB action. Not about the second part. But today the consequences are that the European bonds quote higher as there are less demand from CHF and Euro bonds are more interesting, so less work for Draghi.

About the NOK, yes I can trade it, but the spread is awfull.

I'm long at 1,2269, as I think we are just touching the triangle wedge from last low. Small leverage, tight S/L
  • #16,718
  • Edited 8:45am Dec 18, 2014 8:25am | Edited 8:45am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi WNG, ups, forgot to answer your initial question (if I would apply the formula for trading): no, I do not. Have no clue, when entropy would be too high to force price in a new macro-state
What do you think about one long at 22.69? ¿are we not in the ascending triangle coming from last low? S/L at Be. It's a dangerous place.

Edit, stopedd out
  • #16,719
  • Dec 18, 2014 8:44am Dec 18, 2014 8:44am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} What do you think about one long at 22.69? ¿are we not in the ascending triangle coming from last low? S/L at Be. It's a dangerous place.

maybe this

EU 12h TF
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  • #16,720
  • Dec 18, 2014 9:26am Dec 18, 2014 9:26am
I have aclose look for some longs @ 2255 and extended @ 2218
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