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  • #6,341
  • Dec 17, 2014 12:59pm Dec 17, 2014 12:59pm
Showtime!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,342
  • Dec 17, 2014 1:09pm Dec 17, 2014 1:09pm
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Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,343
  • Dec 17, 2014 1:19pm Dec 17, 2014 1:19pm
yup, I shoulda held that Erkel. But Dec SPY call verticals will do OK - I'd guess SnP will get bid thru tomorrow? holding out, looking for SPY > $203...Santa rally intact, could see SnP back to highs by next week? Wild card oil, Grinch Saudis
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,344
  • Dec 17, 2014 1:23pm Dec 17, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting The Fool
yup, I shoulda held that Erkel. But Dec SPY call verticals will do OK - I'd guess SnP will get bid thru tomorrow? holding out, looking for SPY > $203...Santa rally intact, could see SnP back to highs by next week? Wild card oil, Grinch Saudis
I had $0.17 early on open, for my put spreads (which you suggested to close, but I didn't), which would just be pretty much a break-even, since I paid them $0.14... and when you include comms... you need about $0.17.

Thinking of closing them for $0.07 or whatever, and let go the bull spread.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,345
  • Edited 2:17pm Dec 17, 2014 1:41pm | Edited 2:17pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I had $0.17 early on open, for my put spreads (which you suggested to close, but I didn't), which would just be pretty much a break-even, since I paid them $0.14... and when you include comms... you need about $0.17. Thinking of closing them for $0.07 or whatever, and let go the bull spread.
I closed out the put spreads for $03-.04 loss, even though they were Jan's, also letting Dec call spreads run, we'll see what tomorrow brings - need a solid SnP run above 2,015 - not looking too strong right now, but worth a wait til tomorrow. Bull market may be more played out than we know, weighed down by oil.

I'm looking for some SPY strength into the close...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,346
  • Dec 17, 2014 2:36pm Dec 17, 2014 2:36pm
Quoting The Fool
..... Bull market may be more played out than we know, weighed down by oil. I'm looking for some SPY strength into the close...
Yes I agree with that. I am not a raging bull... It can creep for months, and basically going nowhere... (Iron Condors? while vol is still high...)

And there it comes, SPY strength into the close.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,347
  • Edited 3:17pm Dec 17, 2014 2:41pm | Edited 3:17pm
Quoting The Fool
$6 risked can make $55 if gold will drop back down to 2014 lows...(GLD $109.xx) - that's a Jan/Jan4 bear put diag, $109/$108.5 for $0.06 debit
gold showing weakness, I am hanging in my double diagonal, also did a $110/$109.5 GLD bear put Jan/Jan4 diagonal for $0.07. Just fearing a heavy breakdown, not what I need....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,348
  • Dec 17, 2014 2:44pm Dec 17, 2014 2:44pm
These big events are rife with HFT megabets, always worth letting that blow over for a bit. I'm hopeful for SPY bull call plays...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,349
  • Dec 17, 2014 3:04pm Dec 17, 2014 3:04pm
If we get a bit of index rally here to close the week and a drop-off in vol, I will be cool with that. I have been wanting to get in some durational calendars, some ER setup calendars for the late Jan ER's, and a vol drop will help me there. I still have a VXX Dec 28/27.5 put spread that I left open just in case we got the dovish Fed - if VXX can do another $3 drop by Friday I will recoup much of my loss there.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,350
  • Dec 17, 2014 7:28pm Dec 17, 2014 7:28pm
PBR, I just can't stay away from that sweet Brazilian Poison. Feb bull call $10/$11 vertical risks $0.04 to make $0.95...
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-12-17_pbr.png Size: 35 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,351
  • Dec 17, 2014 8:03pm Dec 17, 2014 8:03pm
Quoting The Fool
GLD DD currently worth about $165; even if GLD sp feezes, it will be worth >$250 by Wed morning. You have to hold these DD's (calendars, etc) until near expiry to get the profit balloon. I will close Wed morning, in fear of the Fed... GLD DD cost nothing to put on, but has tied up $100/contract margin...
Gold not doin shit overnight so far, thought I might get a little movement under the downside diagonal peak, still might, need sp to move off the middle dip, but whatever, tired of looking at it, need the margin back, will likely cash it in tomorrow. Looks like $325 might be the best I can do, saw that today anyway. Ideal is I could wait til Friday and see sp get right in the sweet spot and maybe net >$500, that'd be epic, $500 for a trade that cost $0 to put on. But with my luck, I'd wait an extra day and gold would make a monster move and I might actually lose money.
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-12-17_glddd.png Size: 41 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,352
  • Dec 18, 2014 12:18am Dec 18, 2014 12:18am
looking out to Jan ER's, starting Jan4 week, names of interest: 1/20: FCX, HAL, NFLX, SNDK 1/21: EBAY 1/22: LUV, SBUX 1/26: AAPL, MSFT, YHOO 1/27: FB 1/28: AMZN, BA, GOOGL 1/29: F 2/3: YELP 2/4: EXPE, DIS,YUM; 2/10: Z; 2/11: CSCO
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,353
  • Dec 18, 2014 1:33am Dec 18, 2014 1:33am
Where is the bottom for solar stawks?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-12-17_SPWRD.png Size: 58 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,354
  • Edited 8:43am Dec 18, 2014 8:25am | Edited 8:43am
Quoting The Fool
These big events are rife with HFT megabets, always worth letting that blow over for a bit. I'm hopeful for SPY bull call plays...
What a crazy rally... SPY $204.72.......
It is going to be the same, just 3x bigger to the downside when any derivative language used instead of "considerable time" finally goes away... but NOT at least 2 FOMC meetings, JY said, if I understand that correctly. Feeling the punch....

Add-on
Tomorrow is div date for SPY.
I closed position - the bull spreads at $0.47 .... for fun. The ones that we bought for $0.15.
Good job TF! I hope you managed to average price, i.e. to buy more of them. I didn't. Experiment - a big success.


Quoting The Fool
PBR, I just can't stay away from that sweet Brazilian Poison. Feb bull call $10/$11 vertical risks $0.04 to make $0.95... {image}
Since it is a government backed company, I doubt they will allow PBR to go bankrupt, so maybe it is a good idea for some cheap gamble.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,355
  • Dec 18, 2014 8:57am Dec 18, 2014 8:57am
Hey TF!
As you would say "mmbitchz"... ... they are trying, and why not.

Wanna buy for $0.53 something that couldn't possibly be worth more than $0.50?
Well, here you go then.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPY_bullspread_ask.png Size: 10 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,356
  • Dec 18, 2014 10:29am Dec 18, 2014 10:29am
Quoting StrayDog
I closed position - the bull spreads at $0.47 .... for fun. The ones that we bought for $0.15. Good job TF! I hope you managed to average price, i.e. to buy more of them.
Been trying to get filled at $0.48, not happening. Closed most of the downside put spreads for $0.03-.04 loss early, couple blocks of those still running. Trying to get gold to move one way or the other (down better) that's not happening, either.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,357
  • Dec 18, 2014 11:02am Dec 18, 2014 11:02am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Been trying to get filled at $0.48, not happening.
Filled on last little breakout. That was a good example of the best result for those otm debit spreads - if you get a big move to the fat end of the P/L.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,358
  • Dec 18, 2014 11:20am Dec 18, 2014 11:20am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Filled on last little breakout. That was a good example of the best result for those otm debit spreads - if you get a big move to the fat end of the P/L.
Good job.

WTF, I see $0.51 as last price...


Anyways, I just watched another tt video >> Earnings and the Market <<...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ER_move_on_SPX_large_move.png Size: 72 KB


I always thought that this would be logical and tastytrade just confirmed it. IF market moves big time in one direction, chances are that it will drag stocks with ER's in the same direction. They did 3 studies on 18 stocks... this is one of them.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,359
  • Dec 18, 2014 11:27am Dec 18, 2014 11:27am
just a few things left for Dec expiry, GLD dd doing exactly the wrong thing, settling into the midrange dip and I have lost 30% of profit since yesterday, best to wait til tomorrow now & maybe I can get lucky & gold will move up/down $20...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-12-18_glddddd.png Size: 53 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,360
  • Dec 18, 2014 4:50pm Dec 18, 2014 4:50pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Good job. WTF, I see $0.51 as last price... .
well, shoulda coulda waited, not sure how much the max was on that spread, more though, prolly pay the max Fri morning. but we were not far off the max, I bet. SPY was looking a little shaky when I decided to close + I knew I was going to be screentime limited.

Dammit.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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