Oil and Natural Gas

Hi GM, thanks for the chart..... scary stuff. I find it incredible that OPEC members are willing to take suck a big hit for such a long time. These prices must be hurting them too. $40??? Wow!

It looks like we are headed for $50

Selling the bounces work so well for this because the fundamental backdrop is so bearish, there is almost no reason to go long crude oil in the short term, unless its short covering or something.

Who is brave enough to long this right now for 80-100 pips?

In its weekly release, Houston-based oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. (
BHI
) reported a plunge in the U.S. rig count (number of rigs searching for oil and gas in the country).
This can be attributed to steep cutbacks in the tally of oil-directed rigs. In particular, oil rig count dropped to the lowest level since June, as crude prices remained below $60 per barrel on plentiful supplies and lackluster demand expectations.
Analysis of the Data
Weekly Summary: Rigs engaged in exploration and production in the U.S. totaled 1,893 for the week ended Dec 12, 2014. This was down by 27 from the previous week's rig count and indicates the second decrease in 3 weeks.
Despite this, the current nationwide rig count is more than double the lowest level reached in recent years (876 in the week ended Jun 12, 2009) and is well above the prior-year level of 1,782. It rose to a 22-year high in 2008, peaking at 2,031 in the weeks ending Aug 29 and Sep 12.
Rigs engaged in land operations fell by 28 to 1,820, offshore drilling was up by 2 to 60 rigs, while inland waters activity decreased by 1 to 13 units.
Natural Gas Rig Count: The natural gas rig count - which in November reached a ten-month high - increased for the first time in 3 weeks to 346 (a gain of 2 rigs from the previous week). Despite the weekly growth, the number of natural gas-directed rigs is down 57% from its recent peak of 811, achieved in 2012.
In fact, the current natural gas rig count remains 78% below its all-time high of 1,606 reached in late summer 2008. In the year-ago period, there were 369 active natural gas rigs.
Oil Rig Count: The oil rig count that rocketed to 1,609 in Oct, the highest since Baker Hughes started breaking up oil and natural gas rig counts in 1987, crashed by 29 to 1,546. Nevertheless, the current tally is way above the previous year's rig count of 1,411 and has recovered strongly from a low of 179 in June 2009, rising almost 9-fold.
Miscellaneous Rig Count: The miscellaneous rig count (primarily drilling for geothermal energy) at 1 remained unchanged from the previous week.
Rig Count by Type: The number of vertical drilling rigs decreased by 24 to 330, while the horizontal/directional rig count (encompassing new drilling technology that has the ability to drill and extract gas from dense rock formations, also known as shale formations) was down 3 to 1,563. In particular, horizontal rig units decreased by 1 from last week's level to 1,367.
Gulf of Mexico (GoM): The GoM rig count was up by 2 to 58. Both oil and gas drilling went up by a unit each to 42 and 16 rigs, respectively.
Conclusion
Key Barometer of Drilling Activity: The Baker Hughes data, issued since 1944, acts as an important yardstick for energy service providers in gauging the overall business environment of the oil and gas industry.
An increase or decrease in the Baker Hughes rotary rig count heavily weighs on the demand for energy services - drilling, completion, production, etc. - provided by companies that include large-cap names like Halliburton Co. (
HAL
) and Schlumberger Ltd. (
SLB
).
However, our preferred pick in this group is Transocean Partners LLC (
RIGP
). The UK-based firm - carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) - has a solid secular growth story with potential to rise from the current level.

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-oil...#ixzz3M0ckn6jD

Just what I've been saying all year.
Drop the price and people will have more spare cash to drive or buy things which in terms adds more to the growth of the economy.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...84#post7945875

Some Economic Perspective On Oil-Market Turbulence
From realclearmarkets.com
The sharp decline in world oil prices during the last half of this year has become the defining economic event of 2014. It has been hailed as a timely stimulus to global demand because it adds to the purchasing power of consumers. Lower gas prices have already strengthened the U.S. expansion and supported the still-fragile recoveries in much of Europe, Japan and the emerging economies. These demand side effects are still growing, but they are only the most immediate impacts. Depending on how the tumultuous events in the oil market play out, they will have important effects through many other channels, and not all these will be so ... (full story)

Hi guys why so few comments ? here ? ..anybody short oil ?

should we broke that zone ? ... i think yea because of strong fundamentals ... low request for oil in 2015

I see some space to 45 dollars per barel

ok guys i am going short that H1 ENGULF if close like that ... TP 52.80 ... feel free to criticsm thx

great observation on dec prices for bottoms.....very interesting

Does anyone know of what the break even point is for the oil producing countries? How will this affect them...?

Also, I wonder how low can the price of oil drop before the Russian economy starts to be impacted.

expectations - 2.6 M .... we will see what gonna happen .. i think expectation is now at price ... only a lot of barels will push price down right ?

looks like someone is doing some winter cleaning. no idea what is pushing this move up. 200 pip up in under 15 minutes

I'm staying well clear until at least Monday.

Needs to break the $53 for it to see $50
otherwise we range from $53-$60
i also see as high a Retracement as $65.xx

This steep fall off started back on June 16 2014. These erratic bounces up are quite strong on the onset but fade into the move during the U.S. sessions yet shallow and sequential stair step moves outside of the New York Session. This is a commodity and it needs to have value. were getting to the price point of a tantrum effect. I would expect to see a hard fast 10 dollar move upward in any near timespan session, Probably the New York slot.

Watching USOil breaking a few minor channel lines and holding up on support in the 15min TF, technically it's reacting just above (3) = 261%x (1).
Also, with such rapid decline from June 2014 high, it is poised for a time consuming complex correction (4) in the larger time frame.

whats the consensus/opinion on oil this week? things looking extremely heavy

G y NG is smashing down although its winter started . is it fundamental move or technical , want to learn about this move