"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #6,301
- Dec 16, 2014 2:45am Dec 16, 2014 2:45am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,323 Posts
- #6,302
- Dec 16, 2014 3:21am Dec 16, 2014 3:21am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,323 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #6,303
- Edited 10:28am Dec 16, 2014 9:10am | Edited 10:28am
- | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Learning how to be patient | 1,784 Posts
FOMC or no FOMC, seems that market have enough reasons to fall, with or without them...
I am not very comfortable with holding entire AAPL position (short strangle + naked call), so I have closed short strangle with the $0.64 loss and will leave the extra short call for a little longer, to make the loss smaller. (Just poor timing for about every trade I took in Dec, poor entries AND exits on short strangles, poor exits on put spreads, poor timing on weeklies...
I knew that nice winning streak must be over once, so there it is, option gods...)
FDX has ER's tomorrow BMO, not the best options in the world, maybe with VIX this high - over $25 - there could be enough juice for a wide short strangle? I suppose that the credit is slim otherwise, since the stock doesn't move much. Also, could VIX be even higher tomorrow - sure it can. I will look at it later, IV differential between Dec and Dec26 not so large... OR maybe stick a credit spread close to price and play directionally? I would do that for the stocks that I am more familiar with.
I am not very comfortable with holding entire AAPL position (short strangle + naked call), so I have closed short strangle with the $0.64 loss and will leave the extra short call for a little longer, to make the loss smaller. (Just poor timing for about every trade I took in Dec, poor entries AND exits on short strangles, poor exits on put spreads, poor timing on weeklies...
I knew that nice winning streak must be over once, so there it is, option gods...)FDX has ER's tomorrow BMO, not the best options in the world, maybe with VIX this high - over $25 - there could be enough juice for a wide short strangle? I suppose that the credit is slim otherwise, since the stock doesn't move much. Also, could VIX be even higher tomorrow - sure it can. I will look at it later, IV differential between Dec and Dec26 not so large... OR maybe stick a credit spread close to price and play directionally? I would do that for the stocks that I am more familiar with.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
- #6,304
- Dec 16, 2014 10:22am Dec 16, 2014 10:22am
- | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Learning how to be patient | 1,784 Posts
Retail platform FXCM ceases ruble trade
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That was expected... bid/ask in street Russian exchanges is 20% wide
...
(Yeah, I remember trading was impossible during the Flash crash in May 2010... I was looking at GBP/JPY which was one crazy mofo back then, and all of a sudden, a massive falling knife, no - a falling sword, katana, machete, whatever... just going down, down, down, and you can't place an order...)
This story is developing. Please check back for further updates.
That was expected... bid/ask in street Russian exchanges is 20% wide
...(Yeah, I remember trading was impossible during the Flash crash in May 2010... I was looking at GBP/JPY which was one crazy mofo back then, and all of a sudden, a massive falling knife, no - a falling sword, katana, machete, whatever... just going down, down, down, and you can't place an order...)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
- #6,305
- Dec 16, 2014 11:35am Dec 16, 2014 11:35am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,323 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #6,306
- Dec 16, 2014 12:08pm Dec 16, 2014 12:08pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,323 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #6,307
- Dec 16, 2014 12:25pm Dec 16, 2014 12:25pm
- | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Learning how to be patient | 1,784 Posts
did this Mar/Apr $27/$28 bull diag on USO for just comms {image}
.So, looking at your picture, you can lose practically only if USO rallies over $28.59?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
- #6,308
- Dec 16, 2014 12:34pm Dec 16, 2014 12:34pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,323 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #6,309
- Dec 16, 2014 12:41pm Dec 16, 2014 12:41pm
- | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Learning how to be patient | 1,784 Posts
Hope is dangerous in this game.
- #6,310
- Dec 16, 2014 12:48pm Dec 16, 2014 12:48pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,323 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #6,311
- Dec 16, 2014 12:52pm Dec 16, 2014 12:52pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,323 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #6,312
- Dec 16, 2014 12:58pm Dec 16, 2014 12:58pm
- | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Learning how to be patient | 1,784 Posts
{quote} yep, dynamic b/e is the tricky part of the trade. If oil stages a rally in Jan we could be underwater and having to think about whether or not to close or adjust...the trade bets that a rally will come later, we'll see. Lotsa time to be wrong there but time is your friend when you are wrong...
Anyways
Hope is dangerous in this game.
- #6,313
- Dec 16, 2014 1:13pm Dec 16, 2014 1:13pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,323 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #6,314
- Dec 16, 2014 1:37pm Dec 16, 2014 1:37pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,323 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #6,315
- Dec 16, 2014 1:38pm Dec 16, 2014 1:38pm
- | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Learning how to be patient | 1,784 Posts
Not the most efficient trade, looking at credit / margin req.... But, if you want to play something for ER's, here it is.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
- #6,316
- Dec 16, 2014 1:46pm Dec 16, 2014 1:46pm
- | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Learning how to be patient | 1,784 Posts
{quote} something for the bulls, did a Dec $202/$202.5 vertical, for $0.15 debit. Trade small, trade often.
I am deep fishing
Dec 197/196.50 Bear Put Spread... But fishes ain't seeing my bait, 'cos it is, you know, deep... at $0.10... Hm...I will move that up for a penny or two.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
- #6,317
- Dec 16, 2014 1:48pm Dec 16, 2014 1:48pm
- | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Learning how to be patient | 1,784 Posts
{quote} something for the bulls, did a Dec $202/$202.5 vertical, for $0.15 debit. Trade small, trade often.
{quote}
I covered both sides, lets see what will happen with this short term experiment.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
- #6,318
- Dec 16, 2014 2:11pm Dec 16, 2014 2:11pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,323 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #6,319
- Dec 16, 2014 2:14pm Dec 16, 2014 2:14pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,323 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #6,320
- Dec 16, 2014 2:26pm Dec 16, 2014 2:26pm
- | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Learning how to be patient | 1,784 Posts
{quote} well, Buena suerte, amigo. I gotta believe we are in store for some volatile action either way. My gut is JY brings the hawk, but that is so improbable on Xmas eve and all. What about all the dear tots on Wall Street? Santa gonna hold out the bonus check then pull it back right when greedy little hands reach for it? Aw naw, it can't happen.....
Greedy bastards.
Hope is dangerous in this game.