Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

Good concept, started at the beginning of the thread, alot of info to take .
Thanks

Take your time to go through the thread and videos, it can take you some time. There is in my humble opinion a lot of information that can help you in your trading and how supply and demand works.

Have a great day and week!
Best wishes,
Alfonso

I'm out of AUD/USD WK short and my 2 x D1 shorts. I was moving my SL aggressively above previous D1 potential SZ CP and my SL was hit. Nice profit on these 3 aussie short trades I had running, 2 on the Daily and 1 on the WK supply zone (attachment corresponds to my WK short entry). Similar trades were taken on AUD/CAD, AUD/SGD, AUD/CHF, AUD/NZD, etc.

There is a potential D1 CP where the second yellow arrow is pointing. WK SZ higher good to try more shorts.

A new supply and demand webinar will be held next Monday 15th December 2014, it will be the last one of this year. Christmas time is close and holidays even closer

1. TITLE: Supply and demand trading analysis
2. DATE: Monday 15th December 2014
3. TIME: 09:00 AM to 10:30 AM CEST | right at London open
4. LINK TO JOIN: if you have joined a previous webinar, you will have already received the link to join. Else if you are new, you must fill up the form here http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars

What topics will be covered:

1. We'll be going through a bunch of pairs, we'll do our top down analysis based on the rules and plan potential trades or make an even more important decision: do nothing
2. Analysis done can be used for intraday or lower timeframe entries if you are an intraday trader, but intraday trades won't be covered for the simple reason that I'm not doing any intraday, but it's advisable to trade intraday in the direction of the bigger picture, so these analysis will definetely help to intraday traders to prevent them from taken a trade against a bigger timemframe imbalance
3. Suggestions on which pairs to look at will be acccepted

Hope to see you there!
Have a great week!

Cheers,
Alfonso

hey Alfonso,
great trades. Congrats..and thanks for sharing. I am taking off whole month, so no trades from me to share. Till next year

Merry XMas and a happy new year! Enjoy it!

Alfonso

Took profit of my latest AUD/NZD shorts at opposing D1 DZ nested at Weekly demand zone. Now it's just too low to keep on buying with high odds.

I did buck in more profits on multiple Aussie shorts I was in, AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, AUD/SGD and AUD/CHF

Hello Alfonso ,

First i want thank u for this massive efforts .
I have problem in this indicator all time this numbers equal zero ( MN , WK , D1 )
http://prntscr.com/5fklne

What i do to solve it ?

You have to read post #1 and post #2 and watch the video on how the indicator works. It needs you to draw the rectangles manually in order to have those % to display the correct altitude. It won't do it automatically, it needs the manual zones/rectangles drawn with MT rectangle tool at the toobal.

Alfonso

Thanks for your reply .

but all videos private

Well, you haven't read the thread then because there are many posts where that is mentioned and the fixed links are posted. You haven't look at the supply and demand YouTube channel where there are other videos. Please do it and you will find them. Take your time to go through the post to get the answers.

One of the video links is posted lower for you to watch.

Cheers,
Alfonso

GBP/NOK is very bullish in a clear uptrend. Taking longs at valid demand levels is the way to go for swing/position and intraday traders.
Forex trading is not only about trading the majors, there are many other pairs and instruments you can trade. GBP/NOK is one of them, that is the pound versus Norwegian Krone.

Let's make a top down analysis to make a decision on which direction we should be trading to trade swing/position and also intraday. Intraday as well? Yes, always try to trade in the direction of the bigger picture's trend, it's MUCH higher odds. This analysis will help you make that decision and stick to it.

GBP/NOK TOP DOWN ANALYSIS

1. Monthly is clearly up. Room to reach opposing non-fresh Monthly supply zone
2. Long taken in lower timeframes, trying to hold it till opposing Monthly supply zone
3. Weekly timeframe is clearly up. Potential Weekly demand zone being formed at 11.10 if it consolidates away with one full OHCL candle
4. There are lower WK DZ nested at previous Monthly deamnd zone
5. Daily is UP. Potential D1 demand zone nested at the previous Weekly demand zone proximal line.
6. Long from lower holding it

Which is the direction you should be looking to trade? Longs, bias is long. Shorts? Why thinking of shorts? Even for intraday traders, why would you bother to take a short against such a strong and clear uptrend? Funny because most traders will.

1. You can try to go long on lower timeframes like H4, H1 or M30 if those are your entry timeframes as an intraday trader. Just remember that the lower the TF the more levels and noise you will have to filter out, and the more experienced trader you will have to be

By using supply and demand imbalances you will learn how expensive or cheap a current or any instrument is, helping you to take the highest probability trade in the bigger picture's direction.

Have a great day!
Cheers,
Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Thanks Alfonso very clear explanation
Be well, Dan

GBPNOK could potential become a good runner. A friend trader of mine contacted me and told me this about fundamentals on norwegian NOK.

1. Technicals: strong uptrend version a weak Montly Supply Zone (huge top wick) and WK SZ weak also
2. Fundamentals: NOK interest rate decreased yesterday by .25% (due to massive sell off in Crude Oil and Norway is a major producer or Crude Oil).

He added a comment to that statement.... "who needs fundamentals when price is screaming at us to get long on a confluence of technicals"

Hope this helps you to make the right decision. Other NOK pairs are being affected like NOK/JPY where I took some shorts, NOK/SEK dropping like a rock and EUR/NOK rallying like GBP/NOK.

Conclusion, bias for supply and demand trading on these pairs

1. GBP/NOK bias: longs
2. EUR/NOK bias: longs
3. NOK/JPY bias: shorts
4. NOK/SEK bias: shorts

Hope this helps!
Cheers,
Alfonso

This is one of the best thread i ever seen. Everything is explained, why that and this happens, why not to take that trade. Havent read whole first post yet, but i have time in Xmas holidays. And in next year i will start backtesting for a 3 currency pair, and will test them for 3 months.

After that i will see if im ready to bring this strategy to my live trades. Sadly Set And Forget subscribion cost for me too much, but hopefully someday im able to join that site and be one of the "chosen" ones...

Thanks for your time Alfonso, and i hope you merry xmas, and Green Pips for year 2015!

Thanks for your kind words my friend. Take your time to go through the lessons, videos and thread, it will take you some time, but in my humble opinion worth every minute! Have a great week!

Alfonso

On today's webinar we went through some of supply and demand's basic rules. Don't underestimate the word "basic", it means what it means.

There is a rules set that will allow us to locate and draw supply and demand levels, as well as drawing trendlines. They are VERY specific, but you need to learn them by heart and apply them in the same way every single time you look at a chart, or you will allow your emotions and/or previous trading experiences to take control.

We had time to analyze these instruments:

1. EUR/CAD
2. NZD/USD
3. AUD/JPY
4. GOLD
5. DOW JONES Index

Things we always need to have in mind and take into account, we covered this in today's webinar

1. Defining the trend is crucial, it will determine which is your bias. We have to pay very close attention to it!
2. Always ask the same questions if you want to get the same consistent answers? The secret is in doing the same thing always, asking the same questions over and over, else it will be chaos
3. What defines an uptrend, downtrend and consolidation at any given chart? An uptrend requires supply levels taken out and demand levels respected. At least 2 opposing supply levels removed, or only 1 level if we have an ascending trendline connection two valleys. Opposite for downtrend. Else, it's consolidation, as simple as that
4. The problem arises because we want to do things differently and we start to "think". Thinking goes against any kind of rules set. We have to stick to our rules and our trading plan
5. A bigger timeframe normally wins over a lower timeframe, that is, a Weekly supply zone normally wins over a Daily, a Daily over a H4, etc
6. If an imbalance is invalid, has bad structure at the base, or it's lower odds at a given timeframe like Daily, lower timeframes levels nested within that zone will ALSO be lower odds. Price is fractal, lower timeframe levels inherit the property from the higher timeframe within which it's sometimes contained
7. Closing above/below previous zone versus just a trade through a zone (overshooting it). You have to have that in your trading plan. If you see that a Monthly or Weekly demand zone was overshot but there is no close on the Weekly for several weeks, or even on the Monthly chart, that's a sign that it's not good to try a short. Wait for a close or trade short higher far from that low
8. How to use the 20 EMA. We use the 20 EMA as a confluence, it will NOT negate or confirm a trade, it will score the level higher or lower, nothing else. We covered some examples in this webinar, AUD/JPY, Dow Jones index

In yesterday's webinar we could not go through the US Index but I mentioned what it looked like. I wanted to update it in this post.

US Index is very bullish. Non fresh MN SZ is in control, 3rd retest. WK and D1 are up, weak MN SZ that could be absorbed and rally higher into next supply zones.

1. It's high in the curve, going long is aggressive but possible because MN SZ is very weak, US cross pairs are very strong and euro is very weak.
2. There is no room for thinking of shorts, it's lower odds with a weak MN SZ

I am long in a bunch of US pairs because of that like USD/ZAR, USD/NOK, USD/SEK, etc. All those trades are working very well for now. No reason to short

Cheers,
Alfonso

Just a quick update on Aussie pairs.

I am doing nothing with the aussie pairs, they are very low in the WK/MN curve, I had all the shorts I could possibly get in aud/usd, sgd, cad, nzd and chf. I just don't want to continue selling because it's over-extended and HTF demand zone is in control. The only one is aud/jpy which is correlated to the Nikkei, which is a different monster.

I am concentrating on other pairs that have better odds like GBP and US cross pairs, nok pairs and some yen pairs.

Saying NO to a trade is also a decision, the same way silence is in a conversation. I just want the highest odds ones and it's funny but there are LOTS of them throughout the month. We just have to be patient.

Hope that makes sense
Cheers,
Alfonso

Looks like D1 short taken at nested D1 CP at WK SZ has dropped nicely and now within that D1 DZ but WK and MN in a downtrend. Hopefully it will break lower.

We covered this short in the latest webinar. Some traders at the community took it, hopefully it will keep on dropping lower. I am not on this short because I don't trade gold, but was a good short as explained on the webinar.