just would like to bring little clarification about the winning rate: my one entry may generate several (on average 4) loser exits, because may close a position in small portions
As Above, So Below
- #181
- Dec 4, 2014 9:30am Dec 4, 2014 9:30am
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
As Above, So Below
- #182
- Dec 9, 2014 8:33pm Dec 9, 2014 8:33pm
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
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- #186
- Dec 10, 2014 11:24am Dec 10, 2014 11:24am
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
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- #187
- Dec 10, 2014 12:10pm Dec 10, 2014 12:10pm
{quote} that is great my friend, keep up the good work. large DD is a result of of poor money management. there is no reason why a trade must be heavily underwater. trading is more art than science. and do not forget everything you come up with has to be common sense. price movement is unpredictable most of the time, predictable some of the time. nobody can predict the price all the time trading is about the probabilities. losses are inevitable. these must be the pillars of your strategy
I think I need to improve on quick-in and quick-out (win or lose), to avoid getting stuck with bad trades that kill me on DD.
When in doubt, HEDGE 
- #189
- Dec 10, 2014 10:36pm Dec 10, 2014 10:36pm
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
{quote} Doh...Didn't correctly apply 'Reversal Anti-Trend' entry criteria.Don't like how EURCAD is moving for now even though I believe it will eventually go south.
As Above, So Below
{quote} how do you identify reversal
My current thinking is look for signs of exhaustion after price reaching a 'key' level, especially where stops are hunted.
It seems key level always breaks. Reversal may happen shortly after breaking of that key level.
Enter with tight SL, in case unlucky.
I shorted EURCAD without looking for signs of exhaustion. When price advanced strongly for tens of pips afterwards, I panicked and that caused me to make more bad decisions. Instead of one intended position, I second-guessing the market and ended up opening seven positions in both directions and closed one in loss. Hope not to make the same silly mistake again.
Panic partly because I use live account.
When in doubt, HEDGE
{quote} that is great my friend, keep up the good work. large DD is a result of of poor money management. there is no reason why a trade must be heavily underwater. trading is more art than science. and do not forget everything you come up with has to be common sense. price movement is unpredictable most of the time, predictable some of the time. nobody can predict the price all the time trading is about the probabilities. losses are inevitable. these must be the pillars of your strategy
Intention is now to reduce remaining 3 EURCAD shorts down to just 2 positions, then there shouldn't be panic even if reversal does not happen short term.
Hopefully EURCAD reversal will play out, tonight !!!
When in doubt, HEDGE
- #192
- Edited 6:06am Dec 12, 2014 5:52am | Edited 6:06am
{quote} To mitigate unpredictability and improve money management, I have closed 2 longs & one short, all with no loss.
Seems to me Euro strength is very strange. I suspect Euro is being pushed up and that has something to do with preventing EURCHF from breaking below SNB floor of 1.2000.
EURCHF is now only 1.2009 !!
My hunch is EURUSD will break recent high of 1.2495 tonight!!
When in doubt, HEDGE
- #193
- Dec 12, 2014 6:01am Dec 12, 2014 6:01am
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
As Above, So Below
- #194
- Dec 12, 2014 3:04pm Dec 12, 2014 3:04pm
many things happening around... very careful with leveraging...
Hiya my friend, how have you been? Just thought I would drop by to see how you are doing
Playing the bounces on NZD and AUD have proved fruitful.
Jpy pairs had a nasty pullback and unfortunately some of my longs are deep under water, gonna see how this election thing goes this weekend. Just knew it was too good to be true... uptrend all the way
should have been more patient and not just jumped in after 200 pips RT lol
- #195
- Dec 13, 2014 5:45am Dec 13, 2014 5:45am
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
{quote} Hiya my friend, how have you been? Just thought I would drop by to see how you are doing
i see that nzd pairs moved nicely recently but i never had a chance trade them...
i hope you soon will recover your usdjpy trades and wish you a great weekend!
As Above, So Below
- #196
- Dec 13, 2014 11:11am Dec 13, 2014 11:11am
{quote} this week i dealt mostly with usdjpy, some good and some bad trades as usual, many of us got caught by this deep retracement, few expected that in such strong uptrend... so yes i was buying all this week and yesterday added a few more (but i am not sure if this retracement is done yet)
or the play range for a certain day (into the future). As long its 80% accurate, I dont mind 
USDJPY is the beast and tbh I am too tired playing with it. Gonna just sit back and see how it goes for now... lol RT hopefully finds support at 118 else the next S is around 117... 114 - 115 seems solid S though I hope we wont come to that. maybe we should just master 1 volatile pair (GBPJPY) and make a living trading out of it... what do u think?
Plenty of 2 way traffic everydayAnd yes, NZD surprised me by going so high to my sell limits (when I thought it couldnt). Same for AUD... lol still waiting for NZD to drop as it should though. Stubborn one, really
ps: if u see it .7975 thereabouts, prime time to short. playing pretty much many pairs now, but out of UC (long hit TP). wish to see more chance for reload later think this crap gonna go to Pedro's 117 (my fibo was 116.8 actually), and possibly even 1.2...
- #197
- Dec 13, 2014 9:14pm Dec 13, 2014 9:14pm
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
{quote} I am trying something very different now my friend. very bored, so playing around with more fibos. I swear my chart looks like a graphic designer so many lines, arc, etc hahaha xD v tiring setting it all up though, so I decided to just do it for EURUSD pair and see how effective it goes. I am trying to see the possibility of projecting time periods where price x is to be achieved or something
i have heard about mastering and trading only one pair. this is absolutely up to the trader. personally i think the difference between the pairs are not that significant although similarities are too many.
As Above, So Below
- #198
- Dec 13, 2014 9:25pm Dec 13, 2014 9:25pm
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
{quote} Shitting myself on this EURCAD, rocketed to 1.4433.
a few weeks ago i was long biased on longer term for EURCAD. euro gaining some against $ and dropping oil prices affecting CAD, we may see some more movements upwards. check out the weekly chart
As Above, So Below
- #200
- Dec 15, 2014 1:03pm Dec 15, 2014 1:03pm
{quote} to be honest i try to refrain myself from talking about the levels, because do not trade them even if i have a bias. considering ANYTHING can happen in markets, i prefer to trade the setups along as they unfold in front of my eyes. also considering i am in scalping mode most of the time, targets like a few hundred pips does not make much sense. talking about uj, yes, there is a retracement in action and i have no clue when or where it ends. but i know that overall trend is up... i have heard about mastering and trading only one pair. this...
thanks for the advice again my friend
you see this is one thing I like about you. honesty and open mindedness. yea, i am more of a swing/position trader which is pretty different from intraday trading though I am considering opening an account just for intraday trades next year so we will pretty much have a lot to talk about lol. I tend to hold positions for maybe 2-3 days to cash in maybe 100+ pips per trade.less stress for me though scalping is pretty fun. just I lack the time to do it always...ah, the difference in pips for GJ and UJ is a lot lol... lets see UJ was from RT 105++ to 121.85 while GJ was RT 168 to almost 190 and ATR is also different. thinking of going for volatile ones, more to be made from huge swings (but of course risk is more too, especially if come in wrong entry). for EURCAD I think better to wait until market absorbs all the QE news incoming if you intend to go long. Not too sure how long this oil slide will continue... 1.16725 to 1.17 UC may see some oil bounce am surprised we are headed there so fast already.
UJ is a mess. If this support doesnt hold, gonna look for 116.8 for a fair chance to hold. if it falls, then 115.5 (better chance since there is more convergence), else 113.8 again this is based on bigger TF.
Again I am testing a new system, so we see how it goes.