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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #16,641
  • Dec 12, 2014 5:44am Dec 12, 2014 5:44am
Quoting janpec1000
Ok here is tomorrows plan: Build ahead of Japanese elections long UJ position(s). Target is to use pullbacks in current up trend as entry, if possible secure trades with BE SL and aim for 15-20 pips per trades tomorrow. If trades TP, then open one last position before market close with TP above 120, if they dont TP by market close, dont open additional order, move TP to 120+ SL 200 pips (1 trade). Expected gap open after elections 80 pips+.
Long GJ 185.866, holding trough week.
  • #16,642
  • Dec 12, 2014 6:42am Dec 12, 2014 6:42am
EU

daily TF

long term view


notice the perfect hit and reverse (so far) from the lower red trendline (which marks the boundaries of a triangle)

Theoretically, 5 waves down from the 399x top may be finished here. The blue wave 5 is prone to multiple interpretations
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  • #16,643
  • Dec 12, 2014 6:55am Dec 12, 2014 6:55am
EU

12h TF

in this count, the above shown blue 1,2,3,4,5 is the alternative count


In this count you can see nicely the wedging shape of the ending diagonal of alt 5 (blue) or red 5.

Note: in this ending diagonal we do not have a wave 1/wave 4 overlap. But that is OK, since EWP only states, that the overlap "usually" happens. So seems to be no "need"

The red 3 in this count is open to multiple interpretations, but the way I have labeled it does fit the most with fib-relationships as well as momentum considerations.

The red 5 also is open to multiple interpretations: maybe the green 3 of red 5 is already the green 5 of red 5. So the red 5 would have been an ending diagonal with wave 1/wave 4 overlap. In this case, the green 4 may be in reality the blue 4, and the green 5 would have been the blue 5, which unfolded again as ending diagonal.

In the chart we can see nicely the point of recognition, which presented itself in the area of 3150 to 2920. Often this area gets re-challenged.
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  • #16,644
  • Dec 12, 2014 7:01am Dec 12, 2014 7:01am
Quoting infinitus
EU 12h TF in this count, the above shown blue 1,2,3,4,5 is the alternative count In this count you can see nicely the wedging shape of the ending diagonal of alt 5 (blue) or red 5. Note: in this ending diagonal we do not have a wave 1/wave 4 overlap. But that is OK, since EWP only states, that the overlap "usually" happens. So seems to be no "need" The red 3 in this count is open to multiple interpretations, but the way I have labeled it does fit the most with fib-relationships as well as momentum considerations. The red 5 also is open to multiple...
Nice i agree with that view, both mid term and long term 5 wave count.
  • #16,645
  • Dec 12, 2014 7:24am Dec 12, 2014 7:24am
EU

near term considerations

15min TF


from the very bottom we have now seen a 5 waves up, which is labelled as black A

the black B retraced exactly 50% of this move


the ongoing wave (up) now from the wave B bottom so far has retraced 76,4% of wave B, and looks so far like 5 waves up

as Inoted this morning already, maybe the black B is not finished yet, but unfolds as complex ABC-flat pattern
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  • #16,646
  • Dec 12, 2014 4:46pm Dec 12, 2014 4:46pm
Quoting infinitus
EU 12h TF in this count, the above shown blue 1,2,3,4,5 is the alternative count In this count you can see nicely the wedging shape of the ending diagonal of alt 5 (blue) or red 5. Note: in this ending diagonal we do not have a wave 1/wave 4 overlap. But that is OK, since EWP only states, that the overlap "usually" happens. So seems to be no "need" The red 3 in this count is open to multiple interpretations, but the way I have labeled it does fit the most with fib-relationships as well as momentum considerations. The red 5 also is open to multiple...
Hi Inf..
where you think it ends B ! or already in 2370 is B?


I preferred B ( 2300/50) to go long...because better R/R like stop 2240
TG.. 2610.
  • #16,647
  • Dec 13, 2014 3:03am Dec 13, 2014 3:03am
USOil

by Daneric

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q1uNVLoaB.../s1600/oil.png



since now, I had counted the sideways movement as big triangle

But after seeing this count, I have re-analyzed the last wave blue 1 on Danerics chart. I think he is right: it looks simply impulsive. And so to label it as wave 1 makes most sense. Will adjust my own count accordingly

see picture:


keep in mind: maybe the now ongoing wave C-down does not unfold as impulse, but unfolds as ABC (thus making the whole structure an WXY). In this case, the 261.8% fib target @ 51,34 may be the low for the next years to come.

When it unfolds as impulse, the 70-80 region would be nice for a wave 4 target. The following wave 5 may then reach the roughly 35-45 area
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  • #16,648
  • Dec 13, 2014 3:09am Dec 13, 2014 3:09am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Paying Down The Debt Is Now Almost Mathematically Impossible
  • #16,649
  • Dec 13, 2014 5:25am Dec 13, 2014 5:25am
Quoting infinitus
USOil by Daneric https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q1uNVLoaB.../s1600/oil.png since now, I had counted the sideways movement as big triangle But after seeing this count, I have re-analyzed the last wave blue 1 on Danerics chart. I think he is right: it looks simply impulsive. And so to label it as wave 1 makes most sense. Will adjust my own count accordingly see picture: keep in mind: maybe the now ongoing wave C-down does not unfold as impulse, but unfolds as ABC (thus making the whole structure an WXY). In...
Infinitus i wouldnt be bothering with up movements on oil too much. Not yet for another several months, 70 yes it is possible , but 80 i think not at all. I think they will keep it in range where it is now or even lower till end of 2015, where it will shape out destiny for Russia and Venezuela. If they dont default by some miracle, then Oil rebound could happen to 80 or higher as west and OPEC will have to give up by then otherwise casulties of oil companies would be too severe. I know you are making EW analysis on it, but probably its best if you scale it down on wave expectations, which basically means wave 3 will still go onwards.
  • #16,650
  • Dec 13, 2014 9:48am Dec 13, 2014 9:48am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Infinitus i wouldnt be bothering with up movements on oil too much. Not yet for another several months, 70 yes it is possible , but 80 i think not at all. I think they will keep it in range where it is now or even lower till end of 2015, where it will shape out destiny for Russia and Venezuela. If they dont default by some miracle, then Oil rebound could happen to 80 or higher as west and OPEC will have to give up by then otherwise casulties of oil companies would be too severe. I know you are making EW analysis on it, but probably its best...

Hi Jan,

thank you very much for your thoughts.


From a fib point of view, the 51.34 is a very nice target for this wave 3 or C

Besides of that:

let us look at the big picture (technically):

between 32.50 and 39.50 we should see a very strong support shelf. That is roughly between the 300% and the 361.8% expansion of wave 1 (or A)

the 461.8 expansion would be @ 7.90. Last time we saw prices this deep was in Nov. 1998. Shockingly enough, this is only a mere 16 years ago


The very steep drop from the very top to the 30 region years ago is open to multiple interpretations (wave A), also the following year long up (wave B):

a) it is an impulse; implication is: it was the wave A of a zigzag. We would be now in impulsive wave C down. Wave C down would never reach the length of wave A, because it would drive the price below of zero. So next target would be the 61.8% expansion, which would be between 43.80 and 36.60 (dependent of which wave B peak I would measure.

Here comes the big BUT: wave C in a zigzag almost always reaches minimum the length of the wave A. So this would be a very rare case



b) wave A from the very top down is a zigzag. The years long move up is a running triangle. Now we would be in the impulsive wave C down

The big BUT:

a running triangle typically retraces between 10 and 40% of wave A. Here we have retraced around 70% roughly. So this option has also low probability



c) my main count:

the wave A from the very top is a zigzag. The years long move up and now down is all part of an ABC-flat up. This would put us in the situation, that we are now in a bigger wave B down, which should retrace at least 90% of wave A, ideally 100 to 138%. 100% would lead to the 32.40 low, 138% would lead to 1.15
90% would lead to around 40.7

I think we can scratch the 138% expansion.

see picture

So it seems, that highest probability trades can be taken between 40,7 and 32.40 to the long side.

But question still remains: will we see a significant move up into the 70-80 region as a wave 4 of C beforehand? I am definitively interested in longs around 47.8

From a S/R point of view, the 55.7 area is also interesting.

From a fib perspective the 61.58 is also interesting

US Oil monthly TF
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  • #16,651
  • Dec 13, 2014 10:52am Dec 13, 2014 10:52am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Jan, thank you very much for your thoughts. From a fib point of view, the 51.34 is a very nice target for this wave 3 or C Besides of that: let us look at the big picture (technically): between 32.50 and 39.50 we should see a very strong support shelf. That is roughly between the 300% and the 361.8% expansion of wave 1 (or A) the 461.8 expansion would be @ 7.90. Last time we saw prices this deep was in Nov. 1998. Shockingly enough, this is only a mere 16 years ago The very steep drop from the very top to the 30 region years ago is open...


sorry, take this chart

on the previous one the current month is not up to date
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  • #16,652
  • Dec 13, 2014 11:15am Dec 13, 2014 11:15am
Infinitus whats your view on GU, wondering what EW tells you on this messy GU action. I see up but its not very confident view.
  • #16,653
  • Dec 13, 2014 12:17pm Dec 13, 2014 12:17pm
Quoting janpec1000
Infinitus whats your view on GU, wondering what EW tells you on this messy GU action. I see up but its not very confident view.
GU

long term view
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  • #16,654
  • Dec 13, 2014 12:22pm Dec 13, 2014 12:22pm
Quoting janpec1000
Infinitus whats your view on GU, wondering what EW tells you on this messy GU action. I see up but its not very confident view.

GU

intermediate term view


12 h TF


very overlapping structure

do not know what to make out of it, honestly said

I fear one has to wait to see more clear
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  • #16,655
  • Dec 13, 2014 1:07pm Dec 13, 2014 1:07pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} GU intermediate term view 12 h TF very overlapping structure do not know what to make out of it, honestly said I fear one has to wait to see more clear {image}
Interested in this one only. And you confirm my view, -confused
Thanks for stating it. Structure is bear, but could also give bull run, so therefore i stay out of GU trading as much as possible.
FOMC on Wednesday could make it all clear (USD bullish 100+pips), but if it doesnt, all previous technical factors prevail - mixed.
  • #16,656
  • Dec 13, 2014 1:20pm Dec 13, 2014 1:20pm
the trend is strong on Gbp/usd
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  • #16,657
  • Dec 13, 2014 2:56pm Dec 13, 2014 2:56pm
The Media Is Focusing On the WRONG Senate Torture Report



seems they (USA) have arrived back in the black ages

snipset, but read whole article


Former senior U.S. intelligence official familiar with the interrogation issue said that Cheney and former Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld demanded that the interrogators find evidence of al Qaida-Iraq collaboration…

For most of 2002 and into 2003, Cheney and Rumsfeld, especially, were also demanding proof of the links between al Qaida and Iraq that (former Iraqi exile leader Ahmed) Chalabi and others had told them were there.”

It was during this period that CIA interrogators waterboarded two alleged top al Qaida detainees repeatedly — Abu Zubaydah at least 83 times in August 2002 and Khalid Sheik Muhammed 183 times in March 2003 — according to a newly released Justice Department document…

When people kept coming up empty, they were told by Cheney’s and Rumsfeld’s people to push harder,” he continued.”


  • #16,658
  • Dec 13, 2014 5:43pm Dec 13, 2014 5:43pm
Elliott Wave Trader

Inserted Video
  • #16,659
  • Dec 13, 2014 6:02pm Dec 13, 2014 6:02pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Interested in this one only. And you confirm my view, -confused Thanks for stating it. Structure is bear, but could also give bull run, so therefore i stay out of GU trading as much as possible. FOMC on Wednesday could make it all clear (USD bullish 100+pips), but if it doesnt, all previous technical factors prevail - mixed.

maybe this

GU daily TF

it may be a leading diagonal down. Keep in mind: Leading diagonals are thought to be very rare. In EWP we can find, that a wave 2 after a leading diagonal usually retraces very deep (>80%)

From a pure supply / demand view, the 6525 to 6408 area seems to be interesting
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  • #16,660
  • Dec 13, 2014 6:03pm Dec 13, 2014 6:03pm
EU COT data


time to go long?!
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