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Oktoberfest Nightclub

  • #10,641
  • Dec 11, 2014 4:24am Dec 11, 2014 4:24am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Hi Jan, Hope allz well with you. 75 pip on ECHF would be quite a move, why not try GCHF, are you long on GCHF as well ? Do you expect a rate cut from SNB tomorrow ? Edit: Scrolled up and saw you are long on GCHF
Hey workingforex, that GCHF long already hit profits yesterday. I did try GCHF long if by chance would make strong up move and i could secure it with BE SL,but move wasnt strong so i just took profits. Reason why i focused on ECHF is becouse simply risk on downside is very little, on GCHF risk on downside is big, as big as it can be, on ECHF there is floor, and 75 pips while yes it is a lot for ECHF on rate cut would be defenetly achieved.

Sadly rates were not cut, i still stand by my forecast and carry longs into January on EURCHF entry 1.2017.

On other hand i was right on either Danish or Norvegian rate cut which i said it should move ahead or post ECB QE, and Norvegians did cut rates for 0.25%, which caused ENOK rally of 130 pips. I am looking for longs there as we speak.
  • #10,642
  • Dec 11, 2014 5:09am Dec 11, 2014 5:09am
GU
http://prntscr.com/5fkfzx
  • #10,643
  • Dec 11, 2014 5:22am Dec 11, 2014 5:22am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Hey workingforex, that GCHF long already hit profits yesterday. I did try GCHF long if by chance would make strong up move and i could secure it with BE SL,but move wasnt strong so i just took profits. Reason why i focused on ECHF is becouse simply risk on downside is very little, on GCHF risk on downside is big, as big as it can be, on ECHF there is floor, and 75 pips while yes it is a lot for ECHF on rate cut would be defenetly achieved. Sadly rates were not cut, i still stand by my forecast and carry longs into January on EURCHF entry...
Yes even I was expecting some kind of rate cut which did not happen, still holding my longs on ECHF, will hold them probably for a while.

Regarding ENOK, not taken any trades in that, just watching for now. Took a few shorts on ESEK though yesterday, will be holding them for a while as well. ECB TLTROs were not taken up that great, so expect something from ECB soon with Euro weakening, lets see how it pans out. As always your analysis spot-on, well done for that.
  • #10,644
  • Dec 11, 2014 5:33am Dec 11, 2014 5:33am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Yes even I was expecting some kind of rate cut which did not happen, still holding my longs on ECHF, will hold them probably for a while. Regarding ENOK, not taken any trades in that, just watching for now. Took a few shorts on ESEK though yesterday, will be holding them for a while as well. ECB TLTROs were not taken up that great, so expect something from ECB soon with Euro weakening, lets see how it pans out. As always your analysis spot-on, well done for that.
The only question is: How to trade a ten pip range without overleveraging?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #10,645
  • Dec 11, 2014 5:45am Dec 11, 2014 5:45am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} The only question is: How to trade a ten pip range without overleveraging?
Well regarding over-leveraging, a strict no, no! I took the trades in ECHF with an entry, stop and TP in mind and will leave them alone for a while. Its hard to get anything out of this pair unless you have large position if you are an intra-day kind of person. It more like 'Fill it, shut-it, forget-it,' just my 2 cents.

Hope is all going well for you and you are finding sometime to trade with work.
  • #10,646
  • Dec 11, 2014 5:52am Dec 11, 2014 5:52am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Well regarding over-leveraging, a strict no, no! I took the trades in ECHF with an entry, stop and TP in mind and will leave them alone for a while. Its hard to get anything out of this pair unless you have large position if you are an intra-day kind of person. It more like 'Fill it, shut-it, forget-it,' just my 2 cents. Hope is all going well for you and you are finding sometime to trade with work.
Well, I was not adressing you personally. Just tought to trade these tight ranges. I am good with taking a break from trading this week now, lots of work left on my table before Christmas anyway. I think it will work out for you if you just got a long down and wait for it until next year or so.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #10,647
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:18am Dec 11, 2014 6:18am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} The only question is: How to trade a ten pip range without overleveraging?
Probably better term would be over-sizing. Risk on EURCHF is pretty much fixed, there is no leverage floating that determines your loss on trade, your loss on EURCHF is calculated straight when you enter and depending on what size of position you want to use. Why i think risk is "fixed" is becouse i do not think that SNB would let ECHF drop bellow floor 30-70 pips just to see what market thinks of peg test, simply becouse FX speculations from major hedge funds help proping up floor, and drop bellow floor would take their stops, therefore it would only cause trouble to SNB as it would had to intervene more than it could simply if they keep ECHF guaraded above peg floor. With that said the way i use positioning on ECHF is to use SL 50 pips bellow floor and my there i calculate my risk. I dont see much point using 5 pip SLs and just get taken out of nothing if you can use power of SNB to back your SL a bit deeper.

As for what positons to use it all depends what is your account size obviously and how much % per month is good for you. But generally even with low positions its good enough to make nice % monthly just trading ECHF. The closer it is to floor the better, becouse if you have position stalling many days without hiting TP you will be paying for negative swap (0.25 pip daily on ICM), which is problem on all peged pairs.
  • #10,648
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:21am Dec 11, 2014 6:21am
AU short 8280.
  • #10,649
  • Dec 11, 2014 7:15am Dec 11, 2014 7:15am
Quoting janpec1000
AU short 8280.
TP hit +20.
  • #10,650
  • Dec 12, 2014 2:54am Dec 12, 2014 2:54am
Good morning.

Some 'happy' reading from AEP. Again I ask myself if this guy has ever had an opitimistic thought in his life...

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf France drifts into deflation as ECB 'pea-shooter' falls short - Telegraph.pdf   238 KB | 336 downloads

Nevertheless: interesting. I remain sceptical if 'full-blown' QE will be possible for the ECB, I see the dilemma for Draghi and the pressure he must be under. I think he has passed the moment when only verbal action was sufficient....
I'm short-biased in the EU, but technically more up is possible.
Fail better.
  • #10,651
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:08am Dec 12, 2014 3:08am
2444 adding eu short
looking for investors . pm me
  • #10,652
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:14am Dec 12, 2014 3:14am
118.12 long uj
looking for investors . pm me
  • #10,653
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:29am Dec 12, 2014 3:29am
Quoting kbmoonshinex
118.12 long uj
nice catch
  • #10,654
  • Dec 12, 2014 4:43am Dec 12, 2014 4:43am
i am holding eu shorts and gu. swing trades

next week back to my scalping
looking for investors . pm me
  • #10,655
  • Dec 12, 2014 4:46am Dec 12, 2014 4:46am
UJ M15 ... hmmmm ...
Attached Image
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #10,656
  • Dec 12, 2014 5:33am Dec 12, 2014 5:33am
Quoting kbmoonshinex
i am holding eu shorts and gu. swing trades next week back to my scalping
  • #10,657
  • Edited 6:09am Dec 12, 2014 5:40am | Edited 6:09am
I wonder why noone is looking at this nice pair, ENOK. We had rate cut yesterday and that thing moves in nice up trend, and will countiniue. Really easy pips.
http://prntscr.com/5fxtkw

Long 1568.

Gold above line is bull view.
http://prntscr.com/5fxxg9

Careful on shorting EU or GU at moment, i see more down on dollar, i think 2500 is defenetly in sight of EU:
http://prntscr.com/5fy100
  • #10,658
  • Edited 6:28am Dec 12, 2014 6:12am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting janpec1000
I wonder why noone is looking at this nice pair, ENOK. We had rate cut yesterday and that thing moves in nice up trend, and will countiniue. Really easy pips. http://prntscr.com/5fxtkw Long 1568. Gold above line is bull view. http://prntscr.com/5fxxg9 Careful on shorting EU or GU at moment, i see more down on dollar, i think 2500 is defenetly in sight of EU: http://prntscr.com/5fy100
I haven't that pair with my broker, ADMIRAL, in the account I have. I think the vast majority of people either.
I'm Short EU at 24.58. SL at BE.
  • #10,659
  • Dec 12, 2014 8:34am Dec 12, 2014 8:34am
148.00 short EY.
looking for investors . pm me
  • #10,660
  • Dec 12, 2014 8:40am Dec 12, 2014 8:40am
Only noticed now my EA long was not filled argh.
http://prntscr.com/5fzeu0

Waiting for EU to go to 2463 to buy (scalp).
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