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Simple, Powerful and Effective Price Action Trading Strategies

  • #381
  • Oct 30, 2014 8:38pm Oct 30, 2014 8:38pm
Quote
If this 4 hour candle closes as a bullish rejection candle, it would suggest the bearish pressure isn't there to move this market lower and in fact may end up pushing higher coming into london. I call this the asia breakout trap.

Just following up on the AUDJPY Asian breakout trap that produced a bullish rejection candle on the 4 hour charts. This breakout trap produced good follow through...

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The Asia breakout trap, and breakout trap & reverse setup is something we teach in our Forex Course. But the general gist of it is - some breakouts that occur during the asia session fail and cause the market to 'slingshot' the other way when the market moves into the proceeding London and New York trading hours. This AUDJPY trade is a good example of this - but can be very tough to spot as the AUD and the JPY are both active Asia economies and can produce legitimate breakouts in the asian trading hours.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #382
  • Nov 4, 2014 5:54am Nov 4, 2014 5:54am
Check out some of the Price Action Signals that formed ahead of the big moves on the Yen last week - I exited the USDJPY breakout trade too early

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READ ARTICLE: HIGHLY PROFITABLE FOREX TRADE SIGNALS BEFORE BOJ INTERVENTION


Also there may be a nice end of day signal forming off a strong weekly support level for traders who have the risk appetite to go long on the AUDUSD...

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The AUDUSD daily chart has been an absolute mess as price grinds and churns above a very stubborn support level. Some traders would call this type of pattern ‘accumulation’ as lots of money exchanges hands and the market prepares to make a major reversal.

We can see an obvious containment line here stopping prices from moving any lower, everytime price has tested this level the market has reacted with bullish aggressiveness.

This session we’ve seen the market ‘test and bounce’ off this level as prices push higher off this level ones again. The daily candle could close as a counter trend bullish rejection candle and present a nice buy opportunity for those risk savvy traders looking to take the chance of catching a major reversal.

Just remember the market looks like a mess at the moment, so there is a good element of risk here – but when risk tips the scale down on one end, reward potential is lifted on the other. Let’s see how this market plays out this week.

The Forex Guy
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #383
  • Nov 4, 2014 8:11am Nov 4, 2014 8:11am
Hello I am happy to see you are still very active in the war room with the forex guy. I have been doing some soul searching in my forex trading lately and I have come to the conclusion that I just dont trust indicators any longer. I have also been on the fence for a while now with starting over with my trading and starting to learn PA.

So I did my research and the forex guy and nial fuller where at the top of the list. However despite the one bad review I found on the forex guy, I am leaning towards joining the war room very soon. On the topic of trading I have been watching the EUR/USD for a while now and trying to catch a trade at the very bottom of the down trend it has been in for weeks.

The dollar has been pretty strong lately , However with the primary elections being held today I am really at the point of not knowing what to do. When in doubt stay out, I guess. Can you give some market analysis for the EUR/USD and see what you get from the candles? The pair seems to be holding at some very strong levels I believe 1.2500??
  • #384
  • Nov 5, 2014 8:23am Nov 5, 2014 8:23am
Quote
However despite the one bad review I found on the forex guy, I am leaning towards joining the war room very soon

Thank you for your confidence in me... I know of this one bad review you are referring to - it's someone I got to do work on the site for me and fired and now he is on a revenge campaign to brand me as a scammer. I am trying my best to ignore him, but he has nothing better to do - and I have many testimonials from traders in the War Room.

However I just wanted to check in to give an update on my previous post...

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The market has broken through this stubborn support level and will probably close below there at the end of day - which will really cement in the breakout. Will be looking for sell signals to form off the bottom of this level on retests to confirm it is now holding as resistance.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #385
  • Nov 6, 2014 12:43am Nov 6, 2014 12:43am
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The steep downtrend that was in play on the GBPUSD came to a grinding halt when the market bottomed out on a weekly support level – drifting sideways in range bound conditions for the last month. The Overall pressure still seems to be down with the USD being very strong at the moment, but a bullish rejection candle formed at the range bottom last session as prices rejected moves lower into the range bottom.

If this setup plays out, we could see another test of the range resistance markets on the chart above, where we could look to enter via sell signals, or if the support is attacked again, and breached by price – then we can wait for ‘breakout and re-test’ type trades off the weekly level and short via price action sell signals.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #386
  • Nov 13, 2014 10:48pm Nov 13, 2014 10:48pm
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It has been a slow trading week for many of the currency pairs, we've seen momentum basically 'flatline' and a lot of consolidations and price churning going on - not good when you're trying to make money.

The EURUSD chart above shows this week's price action forming a wedge pattern as price squeezes into the tip of a funnel. As a result - we've got a double Inside day setup, which is a very powerful framework, or catalyst for a nice breakout - like this one.

Because the market has been weak with a dominant downtrend in place - we favor breakouts to the down side. A breakout into higher prices is possible, but the risk of trading breakouts against the trend is not a good idea because the chances of a 'breakout trap' occurring are too high.

Hopefully the market breaks free of it's consolidation and we get a nice clean move inline with the trend.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #387
  • Nov 18, 2014 9:08pm Nov 18, 2014 9:08pm
The EURUSD wedge breakout to the downside ended up manifesting into a breakout trap, now the EURUSD has conflicting bullish and bearish price action on the daily chart so staying clear...


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The GBPJPY market is still considered to be in a bullish trend on the daily chart as price remains lifted above the mean value. The recent momentum has taken pause after a strong power move - which most yen pairs experienced.

We can see price hovering above a clear support level on the daily chart, where any moves lower have been somewhat rejected by the bulls. This week the daily chart printed a bullish rejection candle plus an inside day combo as another move lower into support was heavily rejected.

With the mean value in close proximity, this creates a nice bullish 'hot spot' for buying opportunities - so this market could definitely push up higher off this setup.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #388
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:01pm Nov 20, 2014 8:01pm
The GBPJPY price action combo setup spoken about above has started to launch upwards...

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Also a nice range setup has formed on the EURAUD...

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EURAUD looks like it is still going to be held in range-bound conditions as the market rejected a move into resistance last session.

The failure to move beyond the range top is a bearish signal in itself, coupled with the bearish rejection candle containing a lower close price than the open for the session we can come to the conclusion that the range top wants to hold and we could potentially see the market move down lower from here, and re-test the range support.

The Forex Guy
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #389
  • Nov 21, 2014 2:37pm Nov 21, 2014 2:37pm
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The EURAUD range setup pointed out above produced very nice follow through.

I've just posted an article about the price action signals that formed on EUR pairs this week. If you're interested in checking it out, I've dropped the link below.

New Article: The Euro Tanks - Driving Price Action Signals Into Profit
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #390
  • Nov 21, 2014 3:02pm Nov 21, 2014 3:02pm
Quoting DnBPriceAct
{image} The EURAUD range setup pointed out above produced very nice follow through. I've just posted an article about the price action signals that formed on EUR pairs this week. If you're interested in checking it out, I've dropped the link below. New Article: The Euro Tanks - Driving Price Action Signals Into Profit

Hi DnBPriceAct;

There where strong, Bearish, moves across the board on the EUR, I think, mainly due to ECB President Draghi speaking.
  • #391
  • Nov 21, 2014 3:06pm Nov 21, 2014 3:06pm
Absolutely Steve,

I did skim over a fundamental article that suggested the move was caused by the ECB planning to offer more stimulus - which definitely would explain the last minute weakness this week.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #392
  • Nov 21, 2014 5:15pm Nov 21, 2014 5:15pm
1 minute ago I received a letter from the Forex Guy
and saw a very similar position which closed with success this week
for example it was on EURGBP
There will come a day when I become a member of the club in their Forex Guy Var room
good trades friends
  • #393
  • Nov 26, 2014 6:43pm Nov 26, 2014 6:43pm
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AUDNZD has been a good mover lately and seems have fallen back into a nice stable bearish trend.

The bearish moment just recently pushed price through the floor of a range it has been stuck in. I've labeled the old range support in the chart above and you can see the market has clearly broken though and closed aggressively lower.

Not ready to take action yet though, hopefully there will be a better opportunity to get into this breakout. It's what I call the 'breakout and re-test' pattern - where the market breaks a containment line, comes back to retest it from the other side and respects it as new support or resistance ( see how I mark support and resistance ).

If AUDNZD produces and bearish signal off this level we can look to set up a short position.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #394
  • Dec 1, 2014 8:41pm Dec 1, 2014 8:41pm
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EURAUD is back at the range top once again after a volatile range rotation – where the market sold off aggressively to the range bottom and rotated just as aggressively back to the range top.

Last session price overshot the range upper boundary and attempted to break higher. The breakout failed and collapsed back in on itself, forcing price to close below the open price for the day – creating a bearish rejection candle pattern.

If the bullish momentum has been exhausted and price breaks the low of the rejection candle, we could see the next swing down back to the range bottom take place. Be cautious though, this cross-pair has seen some crazy power moves on the daily chart. The momentum is still consider up at the momentum, but if this signal plays out, it could turn out to be quite lucrative.

www.theforexguy.com
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #395
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:19pm Dec 2, 2014 9:19pm
Quote
EURAUD is back at the range top once again after a volatile range rotation – where the market sold off aggressively to the range bottom and rotated just as aggressively back to the range top.

Last session price overshot the range upper boundary and attempted to break higher. The breakout failed and collapsed back in on itself, forcing price to close below the open price for the day – creating a bearish rejection candle pattern.

If the bullish momentum has been exhausted and price breaks the low of the rejection candle, we could see the next swing down back to the range bottom take place. Be cautious though, this cross-pair has seen some crazy power moves on the daily chart. The momentum is still consider up at the momentum, but if this signal plays out, it could turn out to be quite lucrative.

This setup hasn't produced much bearish follow through, in-fact this market looks like it is going to break the range top. This is mostly due to the AUD we've been seeing.

These range trades can be very tricky. THe markets I am watching now are the power trenders; USDJPY, AUDNZD, S&P


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This is an interesting chart setup that will get War Room Traders excited. The AUDNZD daily chart clearly demonstrates an asian session rejection. Usually we lookout for failed asia session breakouts as a sign of whats to come in the upcoming London and NY hours – I wouldn't call this a failed breakout as it hardly pierced the previous candle high, but it still does show rejection of an intraday rally.

We’re in a solid downtrend right now, the mean value is angled nicely downward towards that 4-5 O'Clock angle and the market is weakening in a nice gradual fashion.

We've also got an Inside day that formed last session as the market grinded within the previous candle range. I was hoping for a signal to form after a deeper correction but I don't think we're going to get it.

If the failed asian rally weakness follows through this session and breaks the Inside Day low, we could see the next bearish push down to the next critical support level.
Good Luck on the Charts

www.theforexguy.com
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #396
  • Dec 3, 2014 10:21pm Dec 3, 2014 10:21pm
Unfortunately yesterday's AUDNZD trade idea never triggered, so I've abandoned that sell idea.

Ideally, it would be nice if we get a sell signal deeper into the mean value after a bigger correction. Let's wait and see.

Check out today's USDCHF chart. Looking out for buy signals off the old resistance.

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USDCHF is a market we've been talking about in the weekly commentary a lot recently. Price has been jamming up between a stubborn resistance level and a rising trend line - squeezing price into a wedge.

This week the market exploded upwards from an Indecision Candle Doji pattern, and broke through the upper containment line.

Now price has clearly closed in new highs, we will be looking to buy and bullish price action signals that occur when the market comes back down to re-test the old resistance level and hold as new support.

We need to wait for price action to communicate that the level has a good chance of holding as support, and not just slice straight back through.
Reminder that NFP is also being released this week.

www.theforexguy.com
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #397
  • Dec 10, 2014 1:08am Dec 10, 2014 1:08am
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It's been very slim pickings this week on the charts, with none of the pairs offering anything of high value to trade. The Yen pairs seem to be experiencing the highest levels of volatility this week - with the weakening USDJPY losing all its NFP gains - as it corrects back to the mean value.

The strength in the Yen has driven AUDJPY below a critical support level, which the bulls were unable to defend.

Now price has closed lower, and is trading on the negative side of the mean value - our bias has shifted to a bearish stance and we are actively looking to sell. Specifically waiting for this market to retrace its steps and re-test the recent support level as new resistance - to hold as a swing level. If this event occurs we can look for any bearish price action signals that occur at this 'bearish hot spot'.

www.theforexguy.com
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #398
  • Dec 14, 2014 7:09pm Dec 14, 2014 7:09pm
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Most of the markets showing signs of a slow down as we head in towards the Christmas holiday period. Volatility can still remain right up until the last week of trading, then the market takes pause until mid Jan.

The USDSGD has been a hot topic of discussion for War Room traders. The uptrend here is very strong and well organized.

Last week the market corrected back into a hot spot, where we seen a bullish response. An Indecision Candle, followed by an Inside/Bullish Rejection day formed - suggesting further moves higher are likely.

If the market manages to break the signal highs next week, we could see the next extension of this uptrend.

www.theforexguy.com
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #399
  • Dec 16, 2014 10:56pm Dec 16, 2014 10:56pm
Quoting DnBPriceAct
{image} Most of the markets showing signs of a slow down as we head in towards the Christmas holiday period. Volatility can still remain right up until the last week of trading, then the market takes pause until mid Jan. The USDSGD has been a hot topic of discussion for War Room traders. The uptrend here is very strong and well organized. Last week the market corrected back into a hot spot, where we seen a bullish response. An Indecision Candle, followed by an Inside/Bullish Rejection day formed - suggesting further moves higher are likely. If the...

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The previous setup I covered on the USDSGD didn't actually trigger because the market never punched through those hights.

A failed trade can be an opportunity within itself

Now this level has been taken out, and all the dynamics of the daily chart are looking bearish - we can actively look for any sell signals. The best place to hunt for bearish signals would be off the old support acting as new resistance. This would be nice bearish confirmation that the market wants to hold under this level.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #400
  • Dec 22, 2014 6:51pm Dec 22, 2014 6:51pm
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We've probably got 2 good days of trading left before the Christmas holidays cut our volatility off

Looking at the AUDUSD weakness again - a triple inside day combo has formed due to some right price squeezing consolidation. This thing looks like a descending triangle on the lower time frames.

The right way to play this is to take breakouts of the lows - which is already starting to trigger as I write this.

My own concerns here are; This market has not seen a correction for a while and looks very over extended on the weekly chart, and this is a weekly support level the market is grinding up against at the moment.

My point is, we ideally should be playing bearish trades only here but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a bounce higher. We're on the 'fence line' here.


Check out the lastest article on theforexguy.com


New Article: The Best Forex Trades Ending 2014 - Did You Catch Them?
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