EURUSD MultiTimeFrame

An important lesson from yesterday:
- stick to the initial plan for the day and do not switch sides on impulse (which was fine).
- don't have positions even with breakeven stops too close to market right before news (which I failed to do) -- had two longs prepositioned before GDP news yesterday and the spike down closed them with big slippage.

Was a profitable day, had four winners, two losers and three breakevens.

Yesterday had a loss day. Four wins, including one tiny, three breakevens, and many countertrend scratches and losses. I somehow became attached to the idea of shorting and it always looked like it was still a range to short, while in fact a clear bull trend was in progress.

The takeway: better not to short unless an extreme climax occurs and the main trend line is broken first. Entries with the trend from trendline tests and overshoots would have been much more profitable and enjoyable.

Today my plan is as follows: On the daily chart we see a clear Low 1 setup for the bears off the moving average. However, the setup is low probability imo, because the limit entries at the moving average are free to scalp out, while those paying the breakout are doing so into a strong double bottom. So expecting a range day today and will look to buy weakness.

On the 5M timeframe, we see the initial eager but unsuccessful attempt by the bulls to break out above the low of yesterday, so the selloff was a stop flush, which may have also attracted and trapped fresh bears. Went long here and looking to add more for a breakout of LOY, if we get a squeeze around that level, 1.2464.

Yesterday I finished with a profit, had the One Good Trade from the morning. It was a mistake to try to profit more in the afternoon and evening, which I did basically recreationally from my mobile and ended up giving away half of the profit.

The lesson: don't trade after reaching the daily goal, just don't...

For better or worse, added some more to the long -- seeing this as a breakout test into the tight range and a higher low MTR setting up.

Got a breakout and took some scalps, will try to hold as planned.

Closed with my daily profit target, leaving just a tiny position with a BE stop and a 100 pip target to take care of itself. Off for the day.

Finished Friday in profit, but gave some back. Reached my profit goal for the day, but decided to do some more trading in the evening when I saw an opportunity for a downward break. Scratched those shorts prematurely and missed the move, essentially giving back half of the profit to scratches.

The month is over and a big picture outlook is in order. Purely based on price action, this is what I see.

Monthly:
the pair has reached resistance, a bull trend line in a converging triangle trading range. 2 is a double bottom with 1. At the previous swing low 2, the inside-outside-inside bull setup was strong and readily produced a slightly higher low that led to two legs up. At 3, we had a big bear spike consisting of five bear closes. The first three were of increasingly larger size, closing near or at the low, which signifies selling vacuum in a range. The last two bars were range bars and shrank in size above resistance, which likely shows absorption at the range extreme. The last bar in effect became a Low 1 entry bar that turned into a doji and the last bears should be nervous about follow through. Based on this I’d be looking to buy any selloffs, especially to the Close and Low levels of the previous swing low 2. Some impatient bear profit takers must still be waiting for those levels.

Weekly:
Same picture as monthly, only clearer and more in favour of bull last-chance opportunity grabbers. The pair is resting in the zone of bull trend lines, which can be drawn differently. In any case, we technically have a higher low long setup already. There is an inside-outside-inside body setup, albeit with a tail on top on the last bar, which if triggered, would make a second attempt in quick succession to reverse the bear trend (the first attempt was at the previous swing low, but the bull bars had large tails on top. I’d be looking for opportunities to buy if high volume buying kicks in around the red trend line in the middle of the resistance area, around 1.232 as the first level and 1.22 as the ultimate bull trendline/level test.

Daily:
The bear channel trendline seems to be respected so far, but amid congestion, and breaking back below the middle of that tight range may be hard for bears, or may be a shortlived breakout. Plus we have a strong looking double bottom A+B, and double bottoms, if they are true, normally get a double bottom pullback, which may test the double bottom again. So further sideways to down consolidation can be expected to the 1.238-1.236 area, where I’d be looking to fade bear breakouts on 5M and get a position for a bull swing above the bear TL.

The plan for the week: Expect expanding trading range conditions and enter only on fades, no chasing in mid-range intraday. Especially look to buy at. 1.236-1.238, then 1.232 an 1.22. Until those levels are reached, only scalp both long and short breakouts above/below second swing highs/lows intraday and look for failed wedge breakouts.

EU 5M

As planned, based on on range assumptions, faded the breakout below the low of Friday, took a scalp, and will try to just hold at least to above the Daily EMA 20 (1.25) and possibly the top of last week's range (1.255).

UPDATE: Added to the long a scalp position:

Traded in the higher entry for a lower one, exited first one BE, BE stop in.
UPDATE: Took an 8 pip partial scalp on the second long. Will hold for a higher high.
UPDATE: Stopped out of the higher long, considering to take profit on the morning long, too, if no bull breakout to a higher high.
UPDATE: Re-entered long as a small double bottom pullback, think might still be a bear trap and a blow off top breakout.
UPDATE: The small double bottom flag failed, scratched with a pip's loss. Re-entered at a larger potential double bottom bull flag. If this starts to fails, will exit the remaining long. Still looking for a HH breakout.
UPDATE: Another 8 pip partial scalp. Leaving it to play out with a BE stop.
UPDATE: Looking to take pullback long profit at a trend channel line overshoot and double top duelling lines around 1.249. Will not exit the remaining long yet, there may be more up on a pullback.
UPDATE: Took the HH profit. Currently seeing a perfect two bar reversal for a failed wedge breakout on 15 M, but it was followed by a bull signal bar, so a trap entry for bears. Waiting for a second signal short, which should produce either of the two: a slow but sure selloff to mid range of the day, or a trap and an exhaustive rally to a new much higher high.
UPDATE: Out of the long. Calling it a day.

EU 5M

Finally decided to switch to short EURUSD for an overnight swing. Seeing a potential failed High 1 on H1 chart -- both signal bar and entry bar very strong, but in range conditions, too good to be true for bulls. Faded a double top with the previous wedge top, which calls at least for two legs down.

Review of yesterday plus today. Yesterday I focused on scalping the bull trend until it got to an extreme, which turned out profitable. Then switched to short for a swing, which took three or four attempts to re-establish, but which was successful eventually and I held it into today and took profits just now. Met my daily goal of yesterday and today. Should abstain from trading for the rest of today. Expecting a prolonged range around 1.24, as a double bottom pullback formation on the daily chart, so probably not much sense jumping right back into the market,

EU 5M
Positioning for a bull second leg up in the runup to news, hoping to get a position far enough from market in case of good news from Europe.

Technically seeing a breakout from a tight trading range, where bear Low 4 has failed and High 1,2,3,4 play has moved to the leg rather than bar perspective. Current bull breakout can be seen as a High 4 (which still might fail at double top or double top pullback).

Seeing 1.233 as the initial target for the bulls.

UPDATE: Exited/stopped out, but reestablished the long with a tight stop.
UPDATE: Stopped out, waiting for the news.

EU 5M ahead of news
Going long again. BE position in before the news conference.
UPDATE: took a small scalp and leaving with BE stops for the news to play out. Somebody from a bank said on CNBC that EU has potential for a rebound to 1.25. Fingers crossed.

Got stopped out some repeatedly, but got back in as a fade and took some scalps. Still a bit negative closed P&L on the day, but in open profit, intending to hold for a swing into tomorrow.

Yesterday still finished with a small profit. And today I went long again off 1.248, but this was probably the last time I tried to get into a position before news -- did this three times this week, and each time these small open winners turned into losers during the news spikes. Not worth the effort and not worth the money.

EU Big Picture

Starting to look for longs as the bears approach the clearly established trend channel line on the daily chart. Went long on 5M as a lower low major trend reversal, given the strength of the rally earlier in the day. Still a risky and low probability trade, stopout very likely, after which would look to buy lower.

Seeing the current bull effort as an attempt to fail the bear breakout below Friday's outside down day. Expecting spikey range around this level, as bears may want to to fight for follow through.

UPDATE: stopped out for a few dollars. Waiting to buy lower.
UPDATE: Seeing an expanding triangle reversal setting up. Waiting for a bull signal bar after an overshoot of the supposed symetrical dotted red channel line. If no signal, may well go to the daily/weekly support line below (bold red).

EU 5M
Some bull strength on the day, but I'm still thinking bearish. Seeing an expanding triangle range, currently in mid range, and favouring a selloff to the 1.2235 (bold red lines) area at least, where I'm looking to reverse to long.

Bears have some magnet targets below, including bear trendline test, bull channel trendline and expanding triangle lines, so feeling pretty confident to short here.
UPDATE: took short scalps and broke even on the day.
UPDATE: Bears overshot bull channel trendline, but finding few bids here so far. Will reverse to long only on a second signal long. Took partial profit at 14 pips. Still expecting a selloff back below the bear trendline.
UPDATE: BE stops run, but faded that level again, seeing it as a lower high test within today's range and a buy vacuum (large bars)
UPDATE: Also seeing the latest bull rally as a test and overshoot of the median bull channel line. If the bulls manage to close firmly above it, I will consider the always-in as long and will start looking for longs.
UPDATE: stopped out at breakeven. Will wait before placing more trades. Bulls seem gaining strength and produced reversal signal bars on H1 and H4 -- breakouts above may still fail and lead to a quick selloff.

SETUP
An interesting price action setup from yesterday. After the first rally and strong close above the moving average, the bears had a spike and channel with three sell climaxes (pushes) with waning momentum, then followed by a failed final flag breakout and a bull two-bar reversal (also can be seen as inside-outside-inside bull setup at a wedge bottom).

EU Big Picture + Intraday
Buying pressure is emerging in the bear wedge channel, which is transforming into a sideways trading range where the strength of breakouts and breakout tests becomes important. Bear spike A was the last strong bear spike in the developing range. It broke below the bull flag trendline, then the breakout test went above the breakout point, but failed to close above (produced a two-tail micro double top lower high) and completed a bear spike and channel with two more sell climaxes ending at bar 3 and 5 lows. The waning bear momentum is indicated by the bar 2 breakout test, which happened on bar 4, its high going well above the breakout point. Ultimately this bear wedge pattern within the larger bear wedge channel failed to break out below, as bar 6 reversed the bar 5 breakout and also set up a bull inside-outside-inside bodies LONG. Bar 7 was the entry bar on this long, and bar 8 produced immediate follow through and, importantly, a breakout gap with the breakout point. Bar 9, which became a pause bar after the 6-8 bull spike, only managed to test the low of bar 8, which was a strong bull trend bar, and found buying there. Given the strength of the rally, a second leg up may be expected, which is normal after a wedge bottom. So, my intention would be to look for longs intraday.

Trade ideas: The bears are currently breaking below the bull spike trendline, and the first such breakout normally fails. Looking to buy at one of the bear target magnets:
LONG 1.236 area as bar 8 low test, possibly a test below it and a potential Low 1 setup failure on the Daily; careful, needs confirmation by strong buying, and bull signal bars with volume intraday.
LONG 1.2344 bar 7 breakout test, which also happens to be the bear ABC measured move target on Yesterday’s selloff.
SHORT SCALP intraday on bear setups until 1.2344 level reached or bull momentum reverses the day to Always-In Long. Particularly waiting to short for a CD leg in the ABC pattern down to the bear targets, fading the first rally of the day.

EU 5M Intraday
Trying to catch the fresh HOD as a C point for the selloff. Finally got an entry after a couple small stopouts. Seeing this rally as a breakeven stop test for yesterday's bears, expecting them to defend this level short term if the bears are still there.
Also seeing this as a Head and Shoulders pattern, right shoulder, on the 1H chart.
UPDATE 5M: Got stopped out BE, but re-entered, bull momentum too strong to short though. More like a last ditch effort.
UPDATE: A new HOD, must wait for signs of absorption before shorting.
UPDATE:Today's analysis came to naught and resulted in a loss. OK, lessons to be drawn tomorrow.