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How to detect the end of a trend?

  • #21
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:18pm Oct 13, 2014 1:18pm
Further to my earlier post, I'm attaching a current 4H chart of EURUSD that may be showing signs of a trend change from down to up. I've marked my observations on the chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4.jpg Size: 170 KB
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #22
  • Oct 27, 2014 5:12pm Oct 27, 2014 5:12pm
Quoting taru
Further to my earlier post, I'm attaching a current 4H chart of EURUSD that may be showing signs of a trend change from down to up. I've marked my observations on the chart. {image}
Taru thanks for the chart but the trend to which you refer started in May.
Gone to a better place
  • #23
  • Oct 28, 2014 12:35pm Oct 28, 2014 12:35pm
Quoting PJSantos100
Hello All, I was a little bit away from this forum since i'm developing a new indicator for forex trading. My indicator is working well (till now) and ill share the same with you guys since its finished. I just have one problem , when i want to exit the trade i exit a little bit later (although i have profit but not the maximum)... I just want to ask , how can i detect the end of a upwards/downwards trend? any indicator or suggestion ? Thanks all in advance
Stochastic 14,3,3
  • #24
  • Oct 28, 2014 12:36pm Oct 28, 2014 12:36pm
Quoting StingrayEA
{quote} Stochastic 14,3,3
i will check it today
  • #25
  • Oct 29, 2014 2:57am Oct 29, 2014 2:57am
when a bottom fails, you have a down trend, when a top fails you have a up trend !this is it!
  • #26
  • Oct 29, 2014 4:40am Oct 29, 2014 4:40am
Hi PJSantos,

Indicators are very useful. But I really love to read the market and read the candlesticks. If you want to know when a trend is over (or even better, when a trend MIGHT be over), read Al Brooks' Reading price charts bar by bar. It's extremely tough to read but there you'll learn how to read the market and when a trend MIGHT be over.

I hope this helps.
  • #27
  • Oct 30, 2014 2:19am Oct 30, 2014 2:19am
Follow the stop loss along with the trend at a least likely area to stop. To determine exit, use the recent ranges of resistance below the lowest pivot points assuming it will reach them. That's what I do.
  • #28
  • Oct 30, 2014 2:31pm Oct 30, 2014 2:31pm
A gestalt shift
  • #29
  • Oct 30, 2014 2:34pm Oct 30, 2014 2:34pm
Quoting PJSantos100
Hello All, I was a little bit away from this forum since i'm developing a new indicator for forex trading. My indicator is working well (till now) and ill share the same with you guys since its finished. I just have one problem , when i want to exit the trade i exit a little bit later (although i have profit but not the maximum)... I just want to ask , how can i detect the end of a upwards/downwards trend? any indicator or suggestion ? Thanks all in advance
That's the trillion dollar question..how to predict the market accurately, to the nearest pip..and predict all the trends in adv. So far, no one's come close..
  • #30
  • Oct 31, 2014 3:41am Oct 31, 2014 3:41am
Surely there are indicators with a greater degree of accuracy which can detect the beginning or the end of a trend? Ones with high probability of success....
  • #31
  • Oct 31, 2014 8:40am Oct 31, 2014 8:40am
Quoting Millmanz
Surely there are indicators with a greater degree of accuracy which can detect the beginning or the end of a trend?
At the risk of oversimplifying...just use multiple moving averages...they provide a great visual cue on the nature/strength of the price action. The wider the lines apart, the stronger the trend.

I am also a strong personal advocate of range-based charts over time-based ones, as they show trend somewhat more reliably.

To illustrate my point, I have attached two screen grabs, one without MMA's and the other with a set. Fast group (blue) above slow (orange) price is going up.
The FTSE100 (Z Contract) Yesterday: Goes from this...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2014-10-31 at 13.37.37.png Size: 69 KB


To this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2014-10-31 at 13.37.17.png Size: 175 KB
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #32
  • Oct 31, 2014 11:42am Oct 31, 2014 11:42am
Thanks
Quote
HedgePiglet
I am also a strong personal advocate of range-based charts over time-based ones, as they show trend somewhat more reliably.
I will investigate this more seems interesting.

It does seem that some indicators are subjective and every trader tends to have a different view, if the majority agree and stats support it then I guess it becomes and objective technique/ indicator...?

Does this approach work for all asset classes or just some?
  • #33
  • Nov 3, 2014 7:41am Nov 3, 2014 7:41am
Quoting Millmanz
Thanks {quote} I will investigate this more seems interesting. It does seem that some indicators are subjective and every trader tends to have a different view, if the majority agree and stats support it then I guess it becomes and objective technique/ indicator...? Does this approach work for all asset classes or just some?
Indicators are as varied as they come. I believe one should find one/s that have a good following, have good support and are well established and then you should become a relative expert.

As for all asset classes, so far I have been able to modify my settings to fit pretty much any chart, but there are certainly those that work better than others. The risk with curve-fitting in hindsight can very often mean nothing in a live market.

There are a few good threads on FF about Range-bars that are worth looking at.
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #34
  • Dec 7, 2014 4:11am Dec 7, 2014 4:11am
The end of the trend is detected when you have to close all your positions due to a margin call.
You can then watch the market go in the direction that you intended.


It works like this:

Attached Image



On a serious note. To detect the end of a trend is not possible.
  • #35
  • Dec 7, 2014 4:23am Dec 7, 2014 4:23am
Quoting Mingary
The end of the trend is detected when you have to close all your positions due to a margin call. You can then watch the market go in the direction that you intended. It works like this: {image} On a serious note. To detect the end of a trend is not possible.

Order without stop-loss has only one Stop-loss the EQUITY "(all money is the stop-loss )
also time consuming in losing orders is the hardest because it stabilize the wrong decision ,
So any order must have two stop-loss Money and Time i.e Target time is important like money target
I'm not a programmer and i don't like ! , but only I try to catch my view !
  • #36
  • Dec 7, 2014 4:27am Dec 7, 2014 4:27am
Quoting Sasco_me
{quote} Order without stop-loss has only one Stop-loss the EQUITY "(all money is the stop-loss ) also time consuming in losing orders is the hardest because it stabilize the wrong decision , So any order must have two stop-loss Money and Time i.e Target time is important like money target
Our brain are fighting with the market and as we are out of market we are the winner
So kill your enemy by stop fighting with him as long as possible specially when your brain exhausted
I'm not a programmer and i don't like ! , but only I try to catch my view !
  • #37
  • Dec 14, 2014 1:50pm Dec 14, 2014 1:50pm
IMHO, absolutely impossible to predict. For a human brain that is. Wait for the first quantum computer
  • #38
  • Dec 14, 2014 5:29pm Dec 14, 2014 5:29pm
I honestly believe that setting up rules around trend definitions is really easy. The key is to just trust them and not overthink them.

Things like trendlines, MA's, higher highs and higher lows (or lower highs and lower lows) are super simple to identify and incorporate into most trading systems.
  • #39
  • Dec 16, 2014 7:34am Dec 16, 2014 7:34am
As later in a week , a month or a year.. as better the trend is visible .
Very often around the Xmas holidays , trend loses their power because the big fishes closes their orders.
January will bring us a new information , but I am sure it will be a mix from up s and downs for the first few weeks and targets won t be reached in the same frequenty like in the end of the year.
  • #40
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:23pm Dec 19, 2014 3:23pm
Simple, use a crystal ball, shake it around and see what pops up on the screen..
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