No greed. No fear. Just maths.

Alternative Trade Management/Money Management Methods 3 replies
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QuoteDislikedBut what happens when you lose 6 in a row? You keep adding more risk each trade? Plus, as you lose 60% of the time your risk per trade will drift higher and higher.
DislikedYour idea is quite similar to Martingale. At some point it breaks down because you simply don't have the bank to survive a long series of losses. This has nothing to do with being (I quote from your post above) "wrong to forecast the winning ratio of your strategy". Even with a perfect forecast of the average win rate, you will inevitably at some point in time encounter a long series of losers, just like you'll sometimes encounter a long series of winners. If you don't understand that, it's better to stay out of this business - and out of the gambling...Ignored
DislikedYour idea is quite similar to Martingale. At some point it breaks down because you simply don't have the bank to survive a long series of losses. This has nothing to do with being (I quote from your post above) "wrong to forecast the winning ratio of your strategy". Even with a perfect forecast of the average win rate, you will inevitably at some point in time encounter a long series of losers, just like you'll sometimes encounter a long series of winners. If you don't understand that, it's better to stay out of this business - and out of the gambling...Ignored
DislikedI want to remember again this is not a trading system! just a way to manage money in a better way, you have the possibility to have the SAME drawdrown, but higher profits! This is not martingale as well.Ignored
Disliked{quote} hmm again as you don't give the algorithm I can't be certain of the following but... you increase the size when your recent history winrate is below the average winrate and you reduce the size when the recent winrate is above average. When you get a long string of losers you increase the size. The DD will be BIGGER than a fixed or a fractional MM. For the same reason when you get an unsual string of winners you reduce the size and therefore limit the profits. The profits will be LOWER than a fixed or a fractional MM. If you post the algo...Ignored
DislikedCan you post a user's manual, please. The Help menu doesn't work. Even after google translation it is quite confusing. What are "quote iniziali uguali" (initial shares equal) and "quote iniziali diverse" (several initial shares??)? Why shall I enter the winrate twice? (attesi is WR right?) Also it's not obvious I shall enter 50 as opposed to 0.5 At some point I could select the dropdown win/loss. Once you select the value you can't change. I suppose it is a feature to not change the past but for testing purpose it is quite a problem. When an input...Ignored