Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 251 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,001
  • Dec 3, 2014 12:53am Dec 3, 2014 12:53am
An update on how the AUD/CAD D1 short from 0.9836 is progressing. Price made a lower low than last week lows, hopefully it will drop lower. Descending D1 TL has been adjusted to the latest 2 peaks now.

As you all probably know I'm trading mainly Daily imbalances, that gives me a lot of free time for my things and also teaches me to be patient every single day. Trades will happen, no need to be an intraday trading to achieve my monthly account % growth. 5-6 trades a month will achieve that, but there are more than than on the Daily.

The question is, why do I need to stay many hours a day in front of the computer doing intraday or scalping? I've made that decision, each of us needs to make that decision to feel more comfortable with their trading, everything will settle once that decision is made. But each of us is different, we need to make that decision individually.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,002
  • Dec 3, 2014 1:19am Dec 3, 2014 1:19am
AUD/USD Weekly short is still dropping and starting the penetration of MN demand zones. Still holding it, no signal to get out of it. This is just a clear example of trading the bigger picture based on the Weekly supply zones.

Similar drops are occurring on others shorts I'm holding on AUD/NZD, AUD/SGD, and AUD/CAD. Short is the way to go on all aussie pairs except AUD/JPY when Yen's fundamentals look like playing out and not doing the same thing, exactly the opposite really.

My SL is now above current WK candle's high.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,003
  • Dec 3, 2014 4:25am Dec 3, 2014 4:25am
Hey Guys, here is my top-down analysis for EURUSD while trying to learn and use Mr. Alfonso's realignment method. I am Seeing shorts on the way down towards the HTF DZs (MN and WK zones). Someone more versed with the process please check through and correct me.

Thanks.
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L.L.L.T
  • #5,004
  • Edited 6:08am Dec 3, 2014 5:14am | Edited 6:08am
Quoting KayStreet
Hey Guys, here is my top-down analysis for EURUSD while trying to learn and use Mr. Alfonso's realignment method. I am Seeing shorts on the way down towards the HTF DZs (MN and WK zones). Someone more versed with the process please check through and correct me. Thanks.
Take a look at the WK chart I've attached, I drew on top of yours, you're missing 2 WK SZ over there. Lower one is still potential since it didn't remove opposing DZ
Makes sense? Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,005
  • Dec 3, 2014 10:31am Dec 3, 2014 10:31am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Take a look at the WK chart I've attached, I drew on top of yours, you're missing 2 WK SZ over there. Lower one is still potential since it didn't remove opposing DZ Makes sense? Alfonso {image}
Yes, it makes sense to me.
Actually I also see more compression on the way up, more that down (may be wrong, being still just a newbie in studying S/D).

I would have another question concerning the analysis of the Monthly: Ok, TL is broken, I agree. But aren't the areas in the yellow rectangles (yellow just for showing them better on the black chart) DZ broken during the down move ?

I would like to better understand this point.

Many thanks to Kaystreet for the posted analysis and to anybody else in advance for any comment.
(Moreover, as I posted some weeks ago, on Eur/Usd I see a lot of level on top of level on the MN on the way up, so that price could probably drop further)
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  • #5,006
  • Dec 3, 2014 11:23am Dec 3, 2014 11:23am
Quoting Whenever
{quote} Yes, it makes sense to me. Actually I also see more compression on the way up, more that down (may be wrong, being still just a newbie in studying S/D). I would have another question concerning the analysis of the Monthly: Ok, TL is broken, I agree. But aren't the areas in the yellow rectangles (yellow just for showing them better on the black chart) DZ broken during the down move ? I would like to better understand this point. Many thanks to Kaystreet for the posted analysis and to anybody else in advance for any comment. (Moreover, as...
Yes my friend, MN is down after removing demand zones. A downtrend at any given TF is defined by price removing demand zones and respecting/creating supply zones, so EUR/USD is definetely down.

  1. MN is down
  2. WK is down
  3. D1 is down

Which direction to trade? Well, mmm I don't know mmmm, I'm confused

Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,007
  • Dec 3, 2014 11:37am Dec 3, 2014 11:37am
I like how Mr Alfonso gets confused!

But anyway, the answer lies within his statement. MN Down, WK Down, D1 Down. Shorting is the way to go.
My focus is to look out for trendline breaks on H4 TF and short on D1 SZs or D1 trendline breaks and short on WK SZs. Will try to post any opportunity i come across.
Cheers!
L.L.L.T
  • #5,008
  • Dec 3, 2014 4:28pm Dec 3, 2014 4:28pm
Quoting KayStreet
I like how Mr Alfonso gets confused! But anyway, the answer lies within his statement. MN Down, WK Down, D1 Down. Shorting is the way to go. My focus is to look out for trendline breaks on H4 TF and short on D1 SZs or D1 trendline breaks and short on WK SZs. Will try to post any opportunity i come across. Cheers!
I believe Alfonso was being sarcastic

Lux
MT4 EA, Indicator and Alert Coder Since 2006
  • #5,009
  • Dec 3, 2014 4:42pm Dec 3, 2014 4:42pm
Quoting KayStreet
I like how Mr Alfonso gets confused! But anyway, the answer lies within his statement. MN Down, WK Down, D1 Down. Shorting is the way to go. My focus is to look out for trendline breaks on H4 TF and short on D1 SZs or D1 trendline breaks and short on WK SZs. Will try to post any opportunity i come across. Cheers!
I was being sarcastic as Lux pointed out in the next post
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,010
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:21am Dec 4, 2014 6:21am
Quoting panoramia
An update on how the AUD/CAD D1 short from 0.9836 is progressing. Price made a lower low than last week lows, hopefully it will drop lower. Descending D1 TL has been adjusted to the latest 2 peaks now. As you all probably know I'm trading mainly Daily imbalances, that gives me a lot of free time for my things and also teaches me to be patient every single day. Trades will happen, no need to be an intraday trading to achieve my monthly account % growth. 5-6 trades a month will achieve that, but there are more than than on the Daily. The question...
I exited my AUD/CAD D1 short from 0.9836 for a nice profit right at the WK DZ. Happy with this trade and profit. Not greedy. Still holding a few aussie short trades on other aussie cross pairs including main AUD/USD

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,011
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:54am Dec 4, 2014 6:54am
Hello guys,

Where can I find the indicator which shows us what candle's body = 50% or < of the whole candle (from low to high)? I mean about the candles only for the Base. Thanks.
  • #5,012
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:59am Dec 4, 2014 6:59am
Hi,
Is it possible to use the RectangleReader indicator on another trading platform like cTrader or any other?

Thanks
  • #5,013
  • Dec 4, 2014 7:46am Dec 4, 2014 7:46am
Normally, i saw the pros trade 1-5 lots, but you only trade less than 0.1 lot. why? not confident?
  • #5,014
  • Edited 1:52pm Dec 4, 2014 1:09pm | Edited 1:52pm
Quoting cnnewt61
Normally, i saw the pros trade 1-5 lots, but you only trade less than 0.1 lot. why? not confident?
I'm cloning a small risk account to a bigger mam account, I don't want to know number of lots I'm really trading, emotional control. It's not the same to see -20 than -200 or -2000. that's the only reason

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,015
  • Dec 4, 2014 1:10pm Dec 4, 2014 1:10pm
Quoting Alehandro
Hello guys, Where can I find the indicator which shows us what candle's body = 50% or < of the whole candle (from low to high)? I mean about the candles only for the Base. Thanks.
Quoting lakis071051
Hi, Is it possible to use the RectangleReader indicator on another trading platform like cTrader or any other? Thanks
As explained in many videos and first posts, the rectangle reader indicator only works on Metatrader 4. The 50% dot on 50% candles is available in that indicator and can be downloaded by following the instructions on post #1.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,016
  • Dec 4, 2014 1:41pm Dec 4, 2014 1:41pm
Quoting cnnewt61
Normally, i saw the pros trade 1-5 lots, but you only trade less than 0.1 lot. why? not confident?
I think those who trade such 1-5 lots mostly scalp where there's a possibility of making it big or losing big at once.
They also tend to take one trade at a time.
They can't fire and hold 10 different standard lot trades at once...it would mudder them.
They tend to trade mostly one instrument too at a time.
__
My guess is that Mr.Alfonso can take on several tens of different trades at once in several different instruments and hold them for weeks. At the end of the day, it works for him pretty perfectly. Its a matter of strategy.
__
Thats my guess though. I could be wrong.
L.L.L.T
  • #5,017
  • Dec 4, 2014 11:25pm Dec 4, 2014 11:25pm
Alfonso, if a level on the Monthly is retested, and on it's retest, a Weekly level is created within it, and nested within it, it's created a Daily level. Is this Daily level confirmed a level even without removing another Daily level just because he is nested on a brand new Weekly level that is nested on a retested Monthly level (first retest)?

Thanks
  • #5,018
  • Dec 5, 2014 1:43am Dec 5, 2014 1:43am
Hi Alfonso

Being a student of OTA, I was searching for S/D indicator which can reduce some pain in analysis many stocks at a time. Your thread is God-send. Really makes analysis a bit faster. I am a trader from India trading in NSE stocks, fyi.

Thanks again!
  • #5,019
  • Dec 6, 2014 7:16am Dec 6, 2014 7:16am
Quoting neo269
Hi Alfonso Being a student of OTA, I was searching for S/D indicator which can reduce some pain in analysis many stocks at a time. Your thread is God-send. Really makes analysis a bit faster. I am a trader from India trading in NSE stocks, fyi. Thanks again!
You are welcome Neo. Glad the trading rules in this thread is helping you on your NSE stocks!

Have a great weekend.
Best wishes,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,020
  • Dec 6, 2014 7:17am Dec 6, 2014 7:17am
Quoting rtocow
Alfonso, if a level on the Monthly is retested, and on it's retest, a Weekly level is created within it, and nested within it, it's created a Daily level. Is this Daily level confirmed a level even without removing another Daily level just because he is nested on a brand new Weekly level that is nested on a retested Monthly level (first retest)? Thanks
As per the rules, a level needs to either remove an opposing zone on its own timeframe or solidly break a trendline, else it's not a level. Once you apply these two scenarios you will know when a level is a level.

Hope it makese sense,
Alfonso
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