Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 4, 2014 2014-12-04 General Overview for 04/12/2014 09:20 CET
The corrective cycle is getting more complex and time-consuming after the top for wave XX brown has been made. The intraday range is now even wilder as the zone now is between the intraday resistance at the level of 1.1423 and intraday support is at the level of 1.1310. However, there is indication of a possible wave Z brown completion into the area of 1.1265, but please notice this corrective cycle might get even more complex. Support/Resistance:
1.1465 - Swing High
1.1446 - 1.1465 - Supply Zone
1.1423 - Intraday Resistance
1.1379 - Weekly Pivot
1.1317 - WS1
1.1310 - Intraday Support
1.1296 - Wave Z Brown Target Level Trading recommendations:
The uptrend is still not intact and swing traders still should consider buying the dips as the market has to complete more waves to the upside. All SL should be placed below the level of 1.1295. Traders might consider opening sell positions from current price levels for intraday scalping opportunities, with SL above the level of 1.1375 and TP at the level of 1.1310.
Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 4, 2014 2014-12-04 General Overview for 04/12/2014 09:50 CET
The count has been flipped around as the main count now is indicating more impulsive wave developing to the upward direction (waves (i)-(ii), I-II), and alternative count is still pointing out a more complex and time-consuming corrective WXY brown (alt.2 red) cycle targeting the level of 1.4478 - 144.54. The change was made due to an inability of the price to break out the golden corrective channel to the downside. The bullish, neutral and bearish zones have been added as well and the most important thing about the bullish zone is that it starts just above the intraday resistance at the level of 148.17, making this a key level for bulls. On the other hand, the key level for bears would be intraday support at the level of 140.02 and breakout lower would directly expose the technical support at the level of 145.70 and below. Support/Resistance:
149.76 - WR2
149.15 - Swing High
149.11 - WR1
148.77 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level|
147.34 - Weekly Pivot
147.02 - Intraday Support|Key Level|
146.55 - WS1
145.70 - Higher Time Frame Technical Support
144.89 - WS2
144.54 - 144.78 - Target Projection For Wave Y Brown Trading recommendations:
There is no follow through from the sell orders opened yesterday, so they need to be closed with a small profit or on break even. Next orders would be only a buy/sell stop orders placed at the level of 148.20 (buy stop, TP 149.11) and 146.99 (sell stop, TP 145.70), with tight SL (10-15pips).
General overview for 05/12/2014 08:10 CET
The impulsive wave progression continues to the upside with another impulsive wave made yesterday. The top of this wave has hit the upper golden channel boundary at the level of 148.92 and reversed sharply to test the intraday support at the level of 148.17 and bounce. To confirm the intraday bullish bias, the market must break out above the swing high at the level of 149.15 and target the level of 149.76. Otherwise, the wave progression might evolve into an alternative count, that is still indicating rather complex and time-consuming wave X brown possibility before the sell-off. Support/Resistance:
149.76 - WR2
149.15 - Swing High|Intraday Resistance|
149.11- WR1
148.17 - Intraday Support
147.34 - Weekly Pivot
147.02 - Intraday Support
146.55 - WS1
145.70 - Higher Time Frame Technical Support
144.89 - WS2
144.54 - 144.78 - Target Projection For Wave Y Brown Trading recommendations:
Yesterday's buy stop orders from the level of 148.17 should be still kept opened and SL should be moved to the break even level. The target is still at the level of 149.11.
Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 5, 2014 2014-12-05 General overview for 05/12/2014 08:30 CET
The complex and time-consuming corrective cycle continues to unfold, making rather limited progression so far. This pair is range bounded and next breakout might be crucial for providing more clues about possible further price movement. Nevertheless, the bias is still to the upside in the near and mid - term, even intraday. Any breakout above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.1422 is bullish and the market should try to break out even higher to test the recent swing high at the level of 1.1454. Support/Resistance:
1.1454 - Swing High
1.1446 - 1.1465 - Supply Zone
1.1422 - Intraday Resistance
1.1379 - Weekly Pivot
1.1339 - Intraday Support
1.1317 - WS1
1.1296 - Wave Z Brown Target Level Trading recommendations:
The day traders should wait for the range breakout to trade this market in the proper direction. Please remember that the uptrend is still intact and swing traders still should consider buying the dips as the market has to complete more waves to the upside.
Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 8, 2014 2014-12-08 General overview for 08/12/2014 08:20 CET
The main count has been invalidated due to wave one and wave two overlaps. Now, the alternative count is being followed. In this count, the bottom for wave (ii) green has been established at the level of 1.1311 and since then the price has been trying to make impulsive progression to the upside. The key level of the supply zone has just been hit and now more upside prices should be seen soon, with the first target at the level of 1.1519. Support/Resistance:
1.1519 - WR1
1.1474 - Intraday Resistance
1.1450 - 1.1465 - Supply Zone
1.1416 - Weekly Pivot
1.1413 - Intraday Support
1.1357 - WS1 Trading recommendations:
The day traders should wait for the range breakout to trade this market in the upward direction from the level of 1.1474. Please remember that the uptrend is still intact and swing traders still should consider buying the dips as the market has to complete more waves to the upside. The SL orders should be placed below the level of 1.1338.
Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 8, 2014 2014-12-08 General overview for 08/12/2014 08:40 CET
As anticipated the whole last week, the market has made another high and the current wave developing looks impulsive. The key level for this count to remain on the upside track is at the level of 148.08, because any violation of this level will invalidate the bullish impulsive outlook. As long as this level is providing support, bullish wave progression should occur, targeting first the level of 151.00 and then 151.70. Support/Resistance:
151.70 - WR2
151.00 - WR1
149.77 - Intraday Resistance
149.00 - Weekly Pivot
148.92 - Intraday Support
148.50 - Intraday Support
148.32 - WS1
148.08 - Intraday Support|Key Level| Trading recommendations:
The day traders should consider opening buy orders at the current market levels with SL below the level of 148.91 ant TP at the level of 149.77 and beyond.
Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 09, 2014 2014-12-09 General overview for 09/12/2014 11:40 CET
The price got back to the neutral/range area after breaking yesterday all the intraday support levels that supported the impulsive bullish count. So far, the golden trend line has been acting as a dynamic support and the market bounced a little from the area of 147.70. However, to gain more upside momentum and confirm further upward wave progression, the key level of 148.86 must be violated in impulsive fashion. Otherwise, the alternative wave labeling, suggesting and abc irregular flat corrective cycle, will be in play and further downside corrective wave development may be on the way. Support/Resistance:
151.04 - WR1
149.76 - Technical Resistance
149.00 - Weekly Pivot
148.86 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level|
148.32 - WS1
147.68 - Intraday Support
147.37 - Green Impulsive Count Invalidation Level
146.34 - WS2 Trading recommendations:
The level of 147.37 is the most important intraday level now, and if it is violatednly only sell orders should be opened. SL orders should be placed above the level of 148.86 and TP orders should be placed at the level of 146.34 with a possible extension downward to the level of 145.70.
Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 9, 2014 2014-12-09 General overview for 09/12/2014 11;20 CET
Black wave iii of the overall impulsive wave structure looks like it has topped. Now, the corrective cycle of wave iv has started. The key level for this cycle is 1.1422 as any violation of this level invalidates the main impulsive wave progression and put the whole impulsive count into question. The next best count would be then an ending diagonal wave blue 5 with more choppy and overlapping price action to come. Support/Resistance:
1.1579 - WR2
1.1519 - WR1
1.1500 - Intraday Resistance
1.1460 - Intraday Support
1.1422 - Invalidation Level
1.1416 - Weekly Pivot Trading recommendations:
The level of 1.1474 has been broken and buy orders advised yesterday should be still kept open as the TP is at the level of 1.1519 and 1.1579. Please remember that the uptrend is still intact and swing traders still should consider buying the dips as the market has to complete more waves to the upside. The SL orders should be moved a little higher, just below the level of 1.1422.
Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 11, 2014 2014-12-11 General overview for 11/12/2014 07:10 CET
The yesterday's key level has been violated and the market has made another higher high at the level of 1.1501. This level might be considered as the wave v black top, but it does not mean the price will not go any higher than this level. In the matter of fact, only a small corrective cycle is expected now, and further upward wave progression should unfold soon. This view is valid as long as the level of intraday support at 1.1396 is not broken. First targets for the upside are at the levels of 1.1519 and 1.1579. Support/Resistance:
1.1579 - WR2
1.1519 - WR1
1.1500 - Intraday Resistance
1.1460 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level|
1.1416 - Weekly Pivot
1.1396 - Intraday Support
1.1357 - WS1
1.1339 - Leading Diagonal Invalidation Level
Trading recommendations:
Daytraders: yesterday's buy stop entry from the level of 1.1460 should be still kept open, and SL might now be moved to the break even level. First TP is at the level of 1.1519, second TP is at the level of 1.1579. Swingtraders: please remember that the uptrend is still intact, and swing traders still should consider buying the dips as the market has to complete more waves to the upside. Only a sustained breakout below the level of 1.1189 invalidates the mid-term bullish outlook.
Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 11, 2014 2014-12-11 General overview for 11/12/2014 07:30 CET
The 1:1 market geometry corrective move measure has been hit almost to the pip and now market slightly bounced from the level of 146.42 and will make that level an intraday support. The abc green corrective cycle in wave Y brown might be regarded as completed, but to confirm it the market must impulsively break out above the level of 147.33 first, and then test the golden trend line somewhere at the level of 148.32. Otherwise one more leg to the downside still may be expected, with the projected target at the level of 145.70 first. Support/Resistance:
151.04 - WR1
149.76 - Technical Resistance
149.00 - Weekly Pivot
148.32 - WS1
147.33 - Intraday Resistance
146.42 - Intraday Support
146.34 - WS2 Trading recommendations:
Daytraders: Unfortunately, the sell orders from the level of 147.37 have missed the yesterday's TP at the level of 146.34 by mere 7 pips. So if you are the one who did not close this trade yesterday, please move the SL to the BE and keep waiting.
Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 15, 2014 2014-12-15 General overview for 15/12/2014 08:50 CET
The current impulsive wave progression still has some uncompleted waves to the upside and it looks like it is going to make new highs this week to develop further the wave sequence. As the current cycle is now corrective, after the wave (iii) green has topped at the level of 1.1590 (our target was 1.1579). The wave progression should now decline a little to test the weekly pivot at the level of 1.1531 or maybe even lower to the technical support at the level of 1.1500. Then, the uptrend should resume and make new highs, targeting the level of 1.1666 first. Please notice that any violation of the level of 1.1454 invalidates this count. Support/Resistance:
1.1666 - WR1
1.1590 - Intraday Resistance
1.1531 - Weekly Pivot
1.1500 - Technical Support
1.1478 - WS1
1.1454 - Technical Support|Invalidation Level| Trading recommendations:
Larger time frame trends are still bullish and so is near and mid-term outlook for this pair, so buying the dips is the way to trade this pair. SL for swing traders should be placed below the level of 1.1454, TP should be placed at the level of 1.1666.
Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 15, 2014 2014-12-15 General overview for 15/12/2014 09:20 CET
This pair is still in the corrective sub-cycle that was labeled on the chart as wave -ii- black. The intraday range is currently growing from the level of 148.24 to the level of 146.42 and only a clear violation of any of these levels could provide more clues about further wave progression. Please notice that the bias is still to the upside as there are missing impulsive waves, however, the current gains are being limited by the golden trend line resistance that is successfully capping any upward attempts. Support/Resistance:
149.79 - Swing High
149.20 - WR1
148.24 - Intraday Resistance
147.82 - Weekly Pivot
146.42 - Intraday Support
145.84 - WS1
145.70 - Technical Support Trading recommendations:
Larger time frame trends are still bullish and so is the mid-term outlook for this pair, so buying the dips is the way to trade this pair. SL for swing traders should be placed below the level of 145.70, TP should be placed at the level of 151.16.
Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 18, 2014 General overview for 18/12/2014 09:50 CET
The level of 1.1670 acts as a strong intraday resistance level and despite the fact it was tested three times, the market still can not break through it. From the Elliott Wave point of view at least two scenarios can be placed at this period of time, both suggesting the corrective wave progression to the downside, but now the crucial question is the degree cycle of the correction. Nevertheless, the most important support is the intraday support at the level of 1.1559 and the dynamic support provided by the golden trend line. In case of any lower breakout, the weekly pivot point at the level of 1.1533 should provide a strong level to bounce from. Support/Resistance:
1.1727 - WR2
1.1670 - Intraday Resistance
1.1666 - WR1
1.1559 - Intraday Support
1.1531 - Weekly Pivot Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should have now closed the buy positions as yesterday's spike down has hit the SL order at the level of 1.1590. Daytraders might consider to open buy stop orders from the level of 1.1672 with tight SL (15-20 pips) and TP at the level of 1.1727.
Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 18, 2014 General overview for 18/12/2014 09:30 CET
The overall wave development is still consolidating inside of the golden channel, and average daily range is still rather narrow for this pair. The market is still testing the larger time frame support at the level of 145.70; and no decision on the future price movement has been made yet. Nevertheless, the bias is still to the upside, as the wave structure is corrective and there is still a good chance, that the impulsive waves to the upside will unfold soon. Support/Resistance:
144.46 - WS2
144.96 - Intraday Support
145.70 - Technical Support
145.86 - WS1
147.01 - Intraday Resistance
147.82 - Weekly Pivot
148.24 - Intraday Resistance
Trading recommendations:
The trading levels stay as it was said as yesterday: the key intraday resistance is at the level of 147.02 and traders should consider opening buy stop orders from this level, with TP at the level of 148.22 and tight (15-20 pips) SL.
Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 26, 2014 2014-12-26 General overview 26/12/2014 10:20 CET
The market moves are currently very limited as the last wave down in complex corrective cycle is in progression. The preferred count favors one more wave to the downside to complete the triangle pattern and then an impulsive rally to the upside, targeting the levels 1.1672 and then 1.1733. Only a breakout below the level of 1.1500 would invalidate this scenario. Please notice that the mid- and longer-term bias are bullish, and new highs are expected. Support/ Resistance:
1.1733 - WR2
1.1672 - WR1
1.1645 - Intraday Resistance
1.1610 - Weekly Pivot
1.1558 - Intraday Support
1.1546 - WS1
1.1500 - Technical Support Trading recommendations:
The corrective cycle in wave Y brown has not been completed yet as there is one more wave missing to the downside. The Traders should consider opening only buy stop orders from the level of 1.1631 with SL below the level of 1.1558 and TP at the level of 1.1672 with a possible extension upside to the level of 1.1733.
Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 26, 2014 2014-12-26 General overview 26/12/2014 10:30 CET
There are two possible scenarios for the current wave progression. The main scenario indicates a completed corrective structure in wave 2 red and a possible start of the impulsive wave development to the upside. The alternative scenario suggests a more complex structure in wave 2 red that is still developing to the downside and the recent wave progression is a wave alt:XX brown of the overall corrective structure. That means, there is one more wave to the downside missing to complete this structure, and then an impulsive rally up is anticipated. The key level for both scenarios is at the level of 148.23 as any breakout higher favors main scenario, and any failure there favors the alternative scenario . Support/ Resistance:
149.77 - Swing High
149.63 - WR2
148.23 - Bullish Zone Level
147.74 - WR1
147.11 - Intraday Resistance
146.34 - Weekly Pivot
145.70 - Technical Support
144.98 - Intraday Support Trading recommendations:
As long as the golden trend line is not broken, the bias is bullish, and traders should consider opening buy orders only. The SL orders still should be placed below the 146.34 level, and TP orders should be placed at the level of 148.23. Please notice the liquidity is getting low, and the market moves might get very sharp and sudden in either direction.
Elliott Wave Analysis for Forex, Futures and Stock Market
