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  • #6,081
  • Dec 2, 2014 1:01am Dec 2, 2014 1:01am
silver bounced even harder than gold; SLV chart suggests resistance just above $17, IVR still very high
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,082
  • Dec 2, 2014 1:54am Dec 2, 2014 1:54am
lol, The Streak is Dead! Long Live the New Streak........? /ES futures up overnight...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...t-history-over
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,083
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:03am Dec 2, 2014 9:03am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} .... Will be hesitant until after the ECB has its say. Big dovish news there and we see more USD strength, resumption of commodity slide, Santa rally green light....
Yep. You have really good understanding of broad market.

Quoting StrayDog
I am in TWTR Jan 35 / 49 Short Strangle (1 SD wide, 52 DTE) for $1.11 credit. Even with IVR of only 12, still a decent credit and ROC for a $41 stock.
That IVR of 12 is something to avoid, but it was low everywhere... Rolled calls down from 49 to 45, so now it is TWTR Jan 35 / 45 short strangle.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,084
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:11am Dec 2, 2014 9:11am
Quoting The Fool
lol, The Streak is Dead! Long Live the New Streak........? /ES futures up overnight... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...t-history-over {image}

Every day a new EMA... . Just how important is 5 DMA to the "big picture"? Except from really big ones, like daily 200 SMA... just put lines for support / resistance... I still keep MACD and RSI on my charts, but for divergences only - IMHO. I still think every little dip is going to be bought, Christmas is coming, maybe a few %, like 2-3% to the downside, and than another leg up. FOMC would not ruin the party in Dec.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,085
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:13am Dec 2, 2014 9:13am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yep. You have really good understanding of broad market.
Hey, SDog - I'd trade understanding for a lucky chicken bone any day.

I did a small AAPL call vertical, Dec $117/$118 today, $0.33 debit, about a 2:1 r/r max if it will jet up to $120 again....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,086
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:17am Dec 2, 2014 9:17am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Every day a new EMA... . Just how important is 5 DMA to the "big picture"? Except from really big ones, like daily 200 SMA... just put lines for support / resistance... I still keep MACD and RSI on my charts, but for divergences only - IMHO. I still think every little dip is going to be bought, Christmas is coming, maybe a few %, like 2-3% to the downside, and than another leg up. FOMC would not ruin the party in Dec.
In truth, I don't do much at all in the way of TA. Just S/R lines/zones. I look at volume always....re: FOMC, I will be surprised if it's not the same ole shit, but that outlier possibility for a rate rise shock is a nice thought anyway.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,087
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:28am Dec 2, 2014 9:28am
Quoting The Fool
In truth, I don't do much at all in the way of TA. Just S/R lines/zones. I look at volume always...
The most important things for stocks. Lots of people don't look at volume, but that is the first thing to check when you see bigger than usual move.

Quoting The Fool
.... I did a small AAPL call vertical, Dec $117/$118 today, $0.33 debit, about a 2:1 r/r max if it will jet up to $120 again....
Lets see how the market will react to upgrades / downgrades, trial over iTunes etc... lots of info, could be consolidation.
My short strangle is wide, so I am safe in case it is going to $120 again, and I have no intention to hold until expiry.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,088
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:42am Dec 2, 2014 9:42am
$ been looking like it wants to do a 3-4 pt breakout like it did in late October, we could see that by this time next week if Draghi delivers the mail. Would open the trap door on commodities....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,089
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:51am Dec 2, 2014 9:51am
Quoting StrayDog
Lets see how the market will react to upgrades / downgrades, trial over iTunes etc... lots of info, could be consolidation. My short strangle is wide, so I am safe in case it is going to $120 again, and I have no intention to hold until expiry.
AAPL working on a nice long green candle today. I have already made $20! Rare for it to do more than a $2 upmove per day in the last couple months. I remember your spread being way out like $125 or more?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,090
  • Dec 2, 2014 11:24am Dec 2, 2014 11:24am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} AAPL working on a nice long green candle today. I have already made $20! Rare for it to do more than a $2 upmove per day in the last couple months. I remember your spread being way out like $125 or more?
Yes... 104.29 / 127.14. Looking good, IV is contracting.


Looking at ANF (ER's tomorrow BMO) .... one of the crazy teenage retailers bunch... No good stocks for buy and holders, none of them - ANF, ARO or AEO.
ANF is down more than 30% since last ER's. It had outlier moves - more than 20% in either direction before. So, since IVR is already at 85... maybe some $1 wide credit spread? Risk/reward is not appealing on wider spreads with 3 DTE...

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I am not a contrarian, especially on companies with declining businesses.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,091
  • Dec 2, 2014 1:40pm Dec 2, 2014 1:40pm
Well, there you go... why bother trading?

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Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,092
  • Dec 2, 2014 2:03pm Dec 2, 2014 2:03pm
Quoting StrayDog
Well, there you go... why bother trading? {image}
SPY Jan '17 290 calls are only $0.41, I better load up...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,093
  • Dec 2, 2014 2:40pm Dec 2, 2014 2:40pm
looking to buy a call on Haliburton ( HAL) just a short term weekly near the close of today as long as it does not close beneath 40.25, so looking to get in $41.50 for less than 30c, thinking oil may have a little upward move left before it resumes its downtrend

Halliburton Company (HAL)
-NYSE
40.32 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.89(2.16%) 8:35PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #6,094
  • Dec 2, 2014 2:44pm Dec 2, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
looking to buy a call on Haliburton ( HAL) just a short term weekly near the close of today as long as it does not close beneath 40.25, so looking to get in $41.50 for less than 30c, thinking oil may have a little upward move left before it resumes its downtrend Halliburton Company (HAL) -NYSE 40.32 {image} 0.89(2.16%) 8:35PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
disregard now

Halliburton Company (HAL)
-NYSE
40.22 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.99(2.40%) 8:43PM GMT - NYSE Real Time Price
  • #6,095
  • Dec 2, 2014 3:00pm Dec 2, 2014 3:00pm
I'm not in a hurry to do much until the ECB shows its hand. My trade volume is gonna be low this month anyway I expect, have moved into lotsa cash and waiting for something like shooting fish in a barrel....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,096
  • Dec 2, 2014 3:36pm Dec 2, 2014 3:36pm
njr mentioned it a while back. Could the ECB force the SNB's hand & we see a huge defense of the 1.20 floor ala Jan 2013?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,097
  • Dec 2, 2014 7:22pm Dec 2, 2014 7:22pm
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/...w?locale=en-US

L&J discuss setting up calendars in stocks that have earnings coming on in the Jan-Feb cycle, something I have on my list to get crackin on this week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,098
  • Edited Dec 3, 2014 1:33am Dec 2, 2014 9:33pm | Edited Dec 3, 2014 1:33am
Quoting The Fool
... setting up calendars in stocks that have earnings coming on in the Jan-Feb cycle, something I have on my list to get crackin on this week.
So Q4 earnings get going week of Jan 12, runs into the Jan monthly expiry, 38dte from now, with AA, and several of the banks. I will look over the list and see which look good for an iv runup. Some things that catch my eye are: (an asterix before the name indicates favorable i.v. rush/crush)...

JPM 1/14; MS 1/15bmo; *CREE 1/19; *NFLX 1/20; *SNDK 1/20; *EBAY 1/21; *MSFT 1/21; *XLNX 1/21; BMY 1/22; *SBUX 1/22; TBC later

Really gets rolling week of 1/26, AAPL is on 1/26 - AAPL IVR popped up this week on the little crash, maybe we can see that go back down over the next week or so..
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,099
  • Dec 3, 2014 12:45am Dec 3, 2014 12:45am
Quoting The Fool
njr mentioned it a while back. Could the ECB force the SNB's hand & we see a huge defense of the 1.20 floor ala Jan 2013? {image}
Hi guys,

Just prior to the Swiss 'Gold' vote on 30 nov, EURCHF went as low as 1.2012 and given that the majority result was a clear NO, there was no testing of the 1.2 floor put in by the SNB. EURCHF actually 'bounced' a little over the last two days but I suspect Draghi's next steps will have more impact driving this pair further. There is also the SNB meeting on Dec 11
  • #6,100
  • Dec 3, 2014 1:31am Dec 3, 2014 1:31am
Quoting njr
{quote} Hi guys,
Hey, njr, you in the pow yet? Hope things are going well. Let us know when you have the fund up and running - I will send you a check. If I were getting paid by the hour to trade, a job at McDonald's would be a big step up....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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