Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 250 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #4,981
  • Nov 30, 2014 1:38pm Nov 30, 2014 1:38pm
Quoting Mightyzoner
Alfonso, Very interesting Swing setups, I've been watching your videos all weekend. Thanks for all the Vids/Info. Did you ever trade Macd3?
Thanks for your mesage. Yes, macd3 was the first strategy I ever trader until I discover supply and demand. Since then, I've been trading exclusively supply and demand and will always be

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,982
  • Nov 30, 2014 1:52pm Nov 30, 2014 1:52pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Thanks for such a detailed update on the indicator. I will load it next week on my Forex Tester platform and see how it works. If you send me a private email through set-and-forget.com contact form I will send you something that I can share with you. Have a great weekend! Alfonso
Hello

I found some bugs in RR for FT2. Here is updated version of RR form FT2.
Also I am member of your set-and-forget for 3 days now.

I will send you a message through web form.


Attached File(s)
File Type: zip RectrangleReader_v1_2.zip   53 KB | 1,915 downloads
  • #4,983
  • Nov 30, 2014 2:21pm Nov 30, 2014 2:21pm
Alfonso... great thread!! Have been learning alot!! What is your take on JPY and CHF pairs... are we going to see some heavy 300-500 pip movements?
  • #4,984
  • Edited 3:34pm Nov 30, 2014 2:51pm | Edited 3:34pm
Quoting poseikwame
Alfonso... great thread!! Have been learning alot!! What is your take on JPY and CHF pairs... are we going to see some heavy 300-500 pip movements?
Thanks a lot for your words. My take on JPY and CHF pairs? I don't know what's gonna happen, I can only apply the rules. Both Yen and EUR/CHF are very weak in all bigger timeframes.

Yen pairs are very weak and Nikkei very strong. Buying yen not a good idea.
EUR/CHF very weak as well, buying EURO/CHF not a good idea.

That's what the big picture is saying, anything against that is going counter-trend. Applying the rules will get some provide with points for related pairs. I'm long on some Yen cross pairs and also long on Nikkei, because it's the way to go as per the rules.

300-500 pips movements? No idea I don't measure profit by the movement in pips but by the percentages over the risk taken (1% risk normally).
Hope that makes sense!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,985
  • Nov 30, 2014 10:35pm Nov 30, 2014 10:35pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Looks like AUD/USD keeps on dropping and made a lower low. Still holding some shorts on D1 and WK supply on this one as well as other aussie pairs (will post charts of other shorts in the next posts) MN, WK and D1 are down, short is the way to go if there are new supply levels on your entry timeframe. Bias is short on all aussie pairs except AUD/JPY Alfonso {image}
Been reading your thread all weekend and still working though it.

Looking at the AUDUSD weekly chart you posted, wouldn't the Monthly demand zone just below the price cause concerns about going short?

Lux
MT4 EA, Indicator and Alert Coder Since 2006
  • #4,986
  • Dec 1, 2014 12:46am Dec 1, 2014 12:46am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Thanks for your mesage. Yes, macd3 was the first strategy I ever trader until I discover supply and demand. Since then, I've been trading exclusively supply and demand and will always be Alfonso
Cool,
I've been with them off and on at least 3-6mo. out of each year since 2010.
I'm going to stay in this thread from now on!!!!
Over last 3ish mo. I've been stripping one indicator at a time off my charts and now down to just the ma's.

Good to find you again in advanced trading mode.
Cheers
Mightyzoner
aka Prochargedmopar
  • #4,987
  • Dec 1, 2014 1:14am Dec 1, 2014 1:14am
Quoting luxinterior
{quote} Been reading your thread all weekend and still working though it. Looking at the AUDUSD weekly chart you posted, wouldn't the Monthly demand zone just below the price cause concerns about going short? Lux
Yes, there is a MN DZ below... but aren't we in a strong downtrend? If AUD/USD was in a strong uptrend, I would be out of my trade already since I would be counter-trending.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,988
  • Dec 1, 2014 1:17am Dec 1, 2014 1:17am
Quoting Mightyzoner
{quote} Cool, I've been with them off and on at least 3-6mo. out of each year since 2010. I'm going to stay in this thread from now on!!!! Over last 3ish mo. I've been stripping one indicator at a time off my charts and now down to just the ma's. Good to find you again in advanced trading mode. Cheers Mightyzoner aka Prochargedmopar
Glad to have you over here then Steve is great, he's a great teacher and person, and the strategy works. At least I made it work for me.... but it's intraday/scalping mostly and that was not for me, too many indicators as well. I prefer longer term and no indicators at all, reading price and supply and demand imbalances is more than enough.

Enjoy your week!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,989
  • Dec 1, 2014 2:40am Dec 1, 2014 2:40am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Yes, there is a MN DZ below... but aren't we in a strong downtrend? If AUD/USD was in a strong uptrend, I would be out of my trade already since I would be counter-trending. Alfonso
I don't quite understand your response. Could you post your chart showing levels and cycle so I can understand what you're saying?

To me it seems like you're selling into an area of demand... I must be missing something obvious.

Lux
MT4 EA, Indicator and Alert Coder Since 2006
  • #4,990
  • Dec 1, 2014 2:49am Dec 1, 2014 2:49am
Quoting luxinterior
{quote} I don't quite understand your response. Could you post your chart showing levels and cycle so I can understand what you're saying? To me it seems like you're selling into an area of demand... I must be missing something obvious. Lux
Let me try to clear up this confusion, it's mentioned in Post #1.

What defines a downtrend?

  1. Supply zones are respected
  2. Demand zones are taken out

Since we are in a clear downtrend on ALL tiframes on AUD/USD, opposing zones (no matter which TF we're talking about) are expected to be taken out, unless we reach a very important zone or an extreme.

That MN DZ you are talking about is valid MN DZ but it goes against the downtrend. Price will most likely react from it and not break it instantly, it might even be a reversal point but odds are for shorts not for longs.

IF AUD/USD was in an uptrend it would be a COMPLETELY different thing, but AUD/USD is in a clear and strong downtrend, so MN DZ tend to be fully penetrated or even overshot, it's not always the case but it has more odds of happening, so holding my shorts on WK and D1 charts until I see some weakness.

Hope that makes sense!
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,991
  • Dec 1, 2014 3:15am Dec 1, 2014 3:15am
Thanks for the clarification Alfonso. Can you tell me what constitutes a "very important zone"?

Lux
MT4 EA, Indicator and Alert Coder Since 2006
  • #4,992
  • Dec 1, 2014 4:06am Dec 1, 2014 4:06am
Quoting luxinterior
Thanks for the clarification Alfonso. Can you tell me what constitutes a "very important zone"? Lux
A very important zone is a zone that has accomplished the removal of a zone that has been holding for quite some time and then it broke out strongly from there.

Makes sense?

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,993
  • Dec 1, 2014 4:07am Dec 1, 2014 4:07am
Closed my Nikkei index long, WK/MN SZ holding, lot of rejection on the D1 up there and also on the WK, a bigger retracement could be under way. Nothing fresh lower to go long at until much lower at 15775. Some counter-trend shorts could happen if D1 D1 is taken out but beware, there is a WK flip zone and last month highs right below and WK 20 EMA. Doing nothing for now. I removed by buy stop breakout because of the rejection, it is normal to see overshots supply and fakeouts with these rejections on D1/WK candles

Full profit on this one since I closed half almost at the top first time and second half around the same area. Next one. Nikkei not for me now. I also closed my longs on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Let's see what Nikkei wants to do this week. This trade was posted a few days ago with the explanation for the aggressive long on the D1 DZ.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,994
  • Dec 1, 2014 4:38am Dec 1, 2014 4:38am
I was triggered short on AUS 200 Australian index. Price dropping like a rock with a lot of room to reach opposing non-fresh MN DZ and ranging on the monthly chart.

Price was over-extended on the left with lots of CPs, good for shorts since they are normally easily taken out.

It has hit my TP after a few days of continuous drop, a nice short with free fall to opposing D1 DZ based on the latest D1 CP SZ. Nice profit on this one! Next one now. Doing nothing on this one for now.

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MONTHLY was ranging, MN supply zone in control which favoured the shorts

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,995
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:59am Dec 1, 2014 9:59am
Dear Alfonso & team

Is there a guideline on how to draw Supply and demand Zones, where market gaps exist, see pic below.

Was zone marked No.1 valid( they way I drew it) or only zone marked No.2 is valid for going short?


Kind Regards

Abie
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  • #4,996
  • Dec 1, 2014 12:04pm Dec 1, 2014 12:04pm
hi alfonso
look at that i miss it for apips
nevr mine lets go on

have agood week
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  • #4,997
  • Dec 1, 2014 3:00pm Dec 1, 2014 3:00pm
Quoting ronentn
hi alfonso look at that i miss it for apips nevr mine lets go on have agood week {image}
Those things happen, you can't control that! Next one don't worry
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,998
  • Edited 3:31pm Dec 1, 2014 3:03pm | Edited 3:31pm
Quoting Abzozo1
Dear Alfonso & team Is there a guideline on how to draw Supply and demand Zones, where market gaps exist, see pic below. Was zone marked No.1 valid( they way I drew it) or only zone marked No.2 is valid for going short? Kind Regards Abie {image}
Couple of comments. A level with a gap is the biggest imbalance we can have on supply and demand.

Again one very important thing, H1 charts ARE NOT allowed in this thread my friend, we talked about it. People keep on trying to post them. They don't realize also that the lower the timeframe the more levels and more noise you will find, and the more losses you will have. But each of us decides what to do with their trading, lower timeframes are for more experienced traders.

It's like having just passed the driving exam and you buy a Porsche or Lamgorbini that can run 200 miles/h. What is most likely going to happen if you are not a experienced driver?

Please, do NOT post more H1 charts, it's not allowed as per the rules of this forum, or you will have to be banned. Lowest TF that can be posted is H4, this is a swing/position thread on supply and demand, H1 TF is not used for that purpose.

Thanks,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,999
  • Dec 2, 2014 1:22am Dec 2, 2014 1:22am
Oops! Sorry about that, wont happen again.

Thanks for response.
  • #5,000
  • Dec 2, 2014 3:06am Dec 2, 2014 3:06am
As I mentioned in previous posts I'm holding shorts on some aussie pairs, AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/SGD and AUD/CAD. Refer to previous posts to learn about others.

This one trade on D1 SZ shows the shorts I'm holding since the moment it was triggered, I capture screenshots of all my trades while they progress to keep log of them with notes and so on.

Aussie is clearly down, so shorts is the way to go. You will find explanations on the attached charts.

In a downtrend, demand zones are removed, new supply zones are created and respected.
Hope it's clear.
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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