Market View; World Stock Indexes; Trading Journal

After the vertical climb in recent weeks, the European markets, entered a phase of heightened sensitivity to adverse events or news. Some negative factors may bring some weakness in the coming days:
- The apathy in the provision of credit may evidence that the European economy can not engage in a credible and sustainable recovery, even with the multiple aid of ECB. To these fears add up the steep losses on value suffered by Greek banks on Friday.
- Increase of Geo-Political tensions in Ukraine. On Friday it was reported that heavy fighting occurred in the east of the country and that a Russian armored column had entered the Ukraine.
The American markets closed on Friday without major swings. The employment report was the main event of the day and had contained reaction from the equity markets, fitting the expectations of investors. In October, the US economy generated 212,000 jobs, a little less than 235 000 mentioned by economists.
In October, China’s exports grew 11.60%, beating forecasts of 10.60%. Imports registered an increase of 4.60%, slightly below the 5% target. These data are of some importance, to the extent that exports have been one of the strengths of the Chinese economy in 2014 and have enabled China to obtain successive surpluses in the trade balance.

European markets trade without major fluctuations. The earning season continues today with the publication of the quarterly accounts of several Italian banks. The oil drop suggests to many investors a sign of the global economic slowdown, however, it is noted that the downward movement of crude oil is also explained by an oversupply. The fall in the Oil price is a threat that goes beyond the rational perception, to the extent that the situation in many oil producing countries begins to deteriorate. Among these producers, the biggest threat comes from Russia. Germany is the country with the largest trade ties with Russia and the European markets are likely to accuse some vulnerability in the coming days.
US markets closed with modest gains but enough for the Dow Jones and S&P to reach new highs. US stocks continues to be boosted by a favorable moment characterized by low interest rates, positive corporate earnings, auspicious economic data and abundant liquidity. This period of inertial rise will require new catalysts to extend the current rally. Moreover, any adverse event or factor may have a very significant impact on the underlying trend.
Today is the Veterans Day. The stock market is open, unlike the bond market and the liquidity on Wall Street should be less than usual.
Asian markets closed without major fluctuations. The only exception was the Nikkei which reached the maximum of seven years after the Bank of Japan started buying assets. Yesterday, after the closing of the Japanese market, the Bank of Japan acquired the equivalent of 265 M € of ETFs listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

European markets trade with losses. One of the main news of the day is the penalty imposed against several banks by supervisors in England and the USA. In England, the supervisor has stipulated Citibank, HSBC, JPMorgan, Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS to pay a fine of 1100 M.GBP due to irregularities in the forex market. For its part, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported that these banks will have to pay a fine of 1,400 M.USD by irregularities of the same nature. Although the conviction was expected, the fines are much higher than in comparable occasions.
The International Energy Agency will publish its report on the outlook for the end of 2014. Investors will monitor essentially the part on US production of oil and gas. The US became the world’s 3rd largest producer (accounting for about 10% of global production) due to the shale revolution, the horizontal extraction of gas and oil from shale surfaces.
Today, the Bank of England will hold a press conference to coincide with the publication of a bulletin on inflation. The economic growth of recent years has caused some inflationary outbreaks and some speculative levels that some areas of the housing market (especially in London) have reached. Among the various Central Banks there is a high probability that this can be the first to reverse the monetary policy in recent years.
The US markets closed with modest gains, with the Dow Jones and the S&P at new highs. Liquidity has been reduced due to the Veterans Day celebration, with many market players staying aside.

European markets opened slightly higher, recovering some of yesterday’s losses. The day was initially marked by the publication of data relating to some European countries. Today, before the opening, the change in inflation in Germany was published. In October stood at -0.30% compared to September. In France, inflation remained unchanged. By 9:00 am, the ECB reported its monthly newsletter.
Data on the Chinese economy, which were not famous, will condition the feeling of European investors.
The issue of Ukraine and the economic and financial situation in Russia are two interlocking themes that came to the fore again in recent days. Yesterday, several sources of information reported that Russian military columns had entered the eastern Ukraine, worsening the situation for the economies of both countries.
US markets are still going through a consolidation phase. In fact, in the last 5 sessions, the volatility of stock market indices have been much lower than in previous weeks. After a strong rise is normal a correction in the markets (as in the case of European indices) or at least fluctuate within a relatively narrow range consolidation (as have done the American Stocks). The fall of oil conditioned, once again, its sector while the fines imposed on 5 international banks have shaken investor’s sentiment regarding this sector.

Similarly to yesterday’s behavior, European markets opened slightly higher than the previous close. The session will be dominated by important economic data: The GDP of the Eurozone, and the inflation relative to October. The German GDP grew only 0,10%, in line with the estimate for the 3rd quarter. France grew 0,30% in the same period, exceeding economists’ forecasts. Regarding Eurozone´s inflation, economists estimate has increased to 0,40% (compared with 0,30% recorded in September). The reaction of investors will depend on the monetary stimulus measures that may be adopted by the ECB. If economic growth is lower than expected and / or inflation falls below the estimated this will reinforce the possibility of the ECB introduce a bond buying program.
US markets continue to consolidate. The Stock Market have been valued through reports of specific companies and sectors. At the macroeconomic level, one of the major uncertainties in the current economic climate is on consumption at a time when the US economy begins to accelerate. Retail sales are one of the best barometers of this variable, as it represents about 30% of private consumption. The fall in the price of fuel (fruit of the oil drop) has a negative accounting impact on retail sales, to the extent that the value of the sale of gasoline and related products is lower. However, lower expenditures on gasoline allow Americans to buy other goods. Thus, the most relevant of today will be the indicator for retail sales excluding cars (a very volatile component) and fuels.

European markets declined early in the session, reflecting the unexpected news out of Japan whose GDP fell 1,60% in the 3rd quarter. The European indices recovered from early losses and ended higher.
Mario Draghi presented to European legislators a list of political resolutions for 2015, and mentioned that an expanded purchase program to stimulate the economy could include government bonds. The President of the European Central Bank used his testimony from the last quarter of 2014 calling on the European Parliament to political action that complements monetary policy, insisting that his institution alone can not fix the economy of the region.
In Brussels, the foreign ministers gathered to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the position of the European Union on Russia. During the G20 meeting this weekend week, the President of Russia abandoned this event, showing the gap between this country and the West.

At the macroeconomic level, investors were surprised today with excellent numbers forthe ZEW index. This indicator measures the sentiment of investors and is prepared through a survey of 350 financial agents. At a time when the German economy is almost stagnant, the feeling of financial agents is of greater importance.
The SP500 has risen to new highs, with the rally in the health sector and the small-cap companies recovering from yesterday decline. Consumers and Investors Sentiment is quite positive at the moment.

European markets traded in a tight consolidation. The last two days have shown an improvement in investor sentiment, motivated by the reinforcement of ECB’s intentions, by its President Mario Draghi.
The last few weeks were marked by the strong underperformance of European banks. This has been substantiated by the increasing signs of contraction in the eurozone economy, the legal costs and fines of several banks that have shaken investor sentiment and the fact that the ECB has not yet achieved the expectations of the market regarding the implementation of a program purchase sovereign debt.
US markets fell from historic highs with the release of the Fed minutes, which revealed that some members said the central bank should remain alert to the possibility of prices in the US economy are not growing fast enough.
The Housing Market Index (Nov) rose in November to 58.0, thus reaching the maximum of the last nine years.
Asian markets closed with contained losses. In Japan, held a meeting of the Central Bank and a distinguished nuance of today’s meeting last month, since the number of members of the Bank who supported the expansion of monetary stimulus program increased from 5 to 8, a total of 9 members.

The first hours of trading the European Stock Markets were marked by the publication of a relevant economic indicator in China, the PMI index for the manufacturing industry, prepared by HSBC economists. According to HSBC economists the manufacturing activity in this country fell to 50.0, the lowest level in six months. This reading was below the 50.4 recorded in October and 50.3 estimated by economists.

The first hour of trading did reflect investors’ concerns and this was compounded by the publication of the PMI index for the manufacturing industry in Germany and in the Eurozone, as the values were below the estimate. After the opening of US market, the situation was reversed with the publication of US economic data with values above expectations.

The market will be impacted today by Loretta j. Mester’s speach from Fed, and tomorrow at the opening bell of the European markets by the speech of Mario Dragui.

In recent days, European markets had an overperformance comparing to the Americans. There are several reasons for this behavior, of which to highlight the words of Mario Draghi at the European Parliament and a recent study by JP Morgan which maintain their preference for the European Stocks, justified by the possibility of the ECB implement quantitative easing measures and the fact that European indices have better ratios (as the PER, share price divided by earnings per share of the company) more appealing than Americans. Another factor has to do with the expectation of some international investors that the difference in returns between the American and European markets may decrease by the end of the year. For example, since the beginning of the year, the SP500 appreciated by 10.84%, while the DAX fell 0.83%.

The European indexes have opened slightly higher than the previous close and begun to rise after Mario Draghi’s intervention at this morning conference. The conference started at 8:00 and was organized by the Bundesbank and with the participation of several German banks. Mr. Draghi said the ECB must drive inflation higher, and will expand its program of asset purchases, if necessary to achieve this. On Monday, before the European Parliament, Mario Draghi had already repeated that the ECB will continue to support the economy of the Eurozone and could implement a quantitative easing if the situation worsens. So far these promises have been enough to push up the markets as investors believe that his words will gain expression through concrete measures.

This week will be particularly intense and that intensity should focus primarily on the first three days of the week, as the US stock market will be closed on Thursday, Nov. 27, for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and on Friday will have a reduced session. This is an important moment for the assessment of the real state of the economy in the Euro Zone. The indicators to be published should condition the economic projections that the ECB will hold at its December meeting, as well as their propensity to implement a sovereign bond-buying program. In addition to the confidence index of German business, changes in the GDP of the German and Spanish economies will be published, inflation in the Eurozone, as well as some reliable indicators for this region. The more fragile are the numbers of the economic agenda largest is the probability assigned by investors to the implementation of a quantitative easing program by the ECB.
In the US, are also disclosed relevant data such as GDP for the 3rd quarter, consumer confidence, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index, among others. The Thanksgiving Day holiday also precedes the beginning of the Christmas season retail sales, which is one of the factors of great influence in Wall Street this time of year.

The European indices started trading with modest gains. The macroeconomic schedule dominated the session. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany, in the third quarter, grew 12:10%, in line with forecasts. Among the various components of the GDP stand out private consumption, which registered an increase of 0.70%, and exports, which rose 1.90%. On the negative side, investment fell 0.90% due mainly to the Ukrainian crisis and the delicate economic situation in Russia. Technically, many indicators have reached the most extreme levels of overbought in recent months.
The decline of oil on Asian and American markets broke the recent recovery of the European oil sector.

The European Indexes consolidated near highs and investors evaluated data on labor, production and housing to measure the strength of the US economy. The US markets will be closed tomorrow for the Thanksgiving day.
Six of the top 10 industries in the SP500 rose today, with telephone and technology companies presenting the greatest gains. Energy shares were the most depreciated, falling 0.6% before the OPEC meeting tomorrow. Deutsche Telekom said that together with the French Orange is in preliminary talks with the British group BT to launch an offer on the Franco-German joint venture EE.
In order to stabilize crude oil prices, Saudi Arabia led negotiations with Venezuela, Mexico and Russia, to reach an agreement to reduce production. Although the OPEC countries are favorable to a decrease in production, the share of each member is a source of contention.
The US economy grew 3.90% in the 3rd quarter of this year, surpassing not only the estimates of economists (3.30%) as the initial forecast of the Commerce Department, the public agency responsible for the calculation of GDP. Contributing to this upward revision were private consumption (+ 2.20% vs 1.90% estimated) and investment (10.7% vs 5.50% predicted). On the negative side, exports have been revised downwards as well as public spending.
Inflation linked to GDP increased by 1:40% in the 3rd quarter. The price of real estate in 20 major US metropolitan areas increased, year on year, 4.90% in September. Consumer confidence unexpectedly fell from 94.5 seen in October to the current 88.7.
Due to the celebration of the Thanksgiving Day tomorrow and the reduced session on Friday, it is not excluded that at the end of the day some managers reduce their market exposure. While we celebrate the Day of Action Thanksgiving, OPEC will meet in Vienna and will decide if production decreases, a decision that will influence the price of oil and reflection of the equity markets. On the same day, various data will be reported in Europe. Therefore, it is not excluded that many American managers who will only return to their trading rooms on Monday take a prudent stance.

The European Indexes showed some gains today. From a macroeconomic point of view, this week will be important to to understand the current economic situation. The indicators on this week should condition the economic projections of the ECB at its December meeting, as well as their propensity to implement a sovereign bond buying program.
Oil fell to a four-year low after OPEC kept its oil production unchanged at today’s meeting, dragging down the shares of energy companies, Gulf-region stocks, and the Norwegian krone. The oil market is facing a revolution with the production of oil shale in the US. This revolution allowed the US to increase by 50% its production of oil in just two years.
Today was the Thanks Giving Holiday in the United States, and as expected, a day with less volume in the markets. Yesterday US markets closed with modest gains. The costs of American families grew 0.20% in October, offsetting the fall 0.20% observed in September. For the real estate market, sales of new homes during the month of October reached the 458,000, representing an increase of 0.70% compared to the estimation of 470,000. Compared to the previous year, the growth was 1.80%. This data reinforces the perception that the housing market has entered a new phase of expansion after the standoff in the summer of 2013. The Chicago manufacturing activity index PMI recorded a fall in November for 60.80, against the estimation of 63.00.

It has been a great Bullish Ride for the major World Indexes.
I'm grateful for the extraordinary trading week.
The forum is a great help.
Which you all a nice weekend. :-)

US shares rose, after the SP500 Index retreated the most in more than five weeks yesterday. This rise was influenced by the rise in the prices of biotechnology and energy companies and data on construction spending supported the confidence in the economy.

The SP 500 fell 0.7% yesterday, the biggest drop since 22 October, with weaker sales data from Black Friday.
Today’s data showed that construction spending rose more than estimated in October. The government labor report, later this week, may reveal that companies added 230,000 payrolls in November, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.8%, according to the consensus forecast by economists .

Yesterday the major stock indexes ended the session in positive territory, with the optimistic investors believing that new monetary stimulus measures will be announced on the ECB meeting, next Thursday. Leading the gains were the companies in the oil sector, recovering from six consecutive sessions of declines.
Asian markets ended positive with the Chinese market leading the gains after the improvement in the indicator of services in the country.
In macroeconomic terms the disclosure of Retail Sales in the euro area were in line with expectations and in the afternoon the attention will be turned to the ADP Employment Change, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs and ISM Non-Manf. Composite, Beige Book in the United States.
Auto sales in the US showed the following numbers: BMW (-2.3%), Mercedes (00:58 +%), Volkswagen (+ 3.2%), Audi (+ 22%) and Porsche (+ 18%).
Siemens Engineering signed a contract worth 1.3 billion zlotys for the construction of a power plant and heating for the largest refinery in Poland, PKN Orlen to.

Shares recovered after an initial decline after the European Central Bank, mention about considering a proposal for an assets buying program, which may include sovereign debt purchase as early as next month.

U.S. stocks rose, with equities heading for a seventh weekly gain, as better-than-estimated payrolls data bolstered the case that the economy is strong enough to withstand an increase in borrowing costs next year.
Employers in the U.S. added 321,000 jobs in November, the most since January 2012, driving wage gains and highlighting increased corporate confidence the economy will endure a weakening in global markets.