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  • #6,041
  • Nov 28, 2014 7:13am Nov 28, 2014 7:13am
Quoting The Fool
Another place to look for victims of the oil glut is in the solar stocks. FSLR, SPWR, SCTY etc etc. Most have fallen hard with oil since late summer. They might bounce before the oil producers do, though.

Oil Weakness Spreads to Solars...
Solar stocks were weak Friday as WTI futures slide below $70 per barrel in the wake of OPEC's surprise decision to maintain production.
Notable decliners include:

  1. Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ)
  2. First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR)
  3. Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL)
  4. SunEdison (NYSE: SUNE)
  5. SolarCity (NASDAQ: SCTY)


To be honest, never crossed my mind that oil and solar stocks have such strong correlation. CSIQ 8% down.

Daily chart of TAN (Solar ETF) compared with Crude futures

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TAN_CL.png Size: 38 KB


Correlation? Hm...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,042
  • Nov 28, 2014 7:49am Nov 28, 2014 7:49am
O yeah, just flight that drone baby...

Get a degree in drones: earn $100,000 a year

Every single day at least one article about drones...

Well, every stick has 2 ends, and the other might be:

The Drone Hunter - a guy standing in the field with binoculars and a shotgun / sniper rifle watching for drones - and their "cargo"...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,043
  • Nov 28, 2014 8:04am Nov 28, 2014 8:04am
Quoting The Fool
I did a cheap ($0.16 debit, Dec $59/$58) vertical bear put spread on DVN today........
This is in profit about 40% of its max potential - around $0.36 on a $0.16 risk. The P/L shows the problem with these vertical spreads: the profit potential is high, but the time value of the short put works against you early on. If DVN will stay down at $58 or lower for 2-3 weeks I will start to see the P/L steepen and come forward & maybe that will happen, but I may not want to wait...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-28_dvn_001.png Size: 34 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,044
  • Nov 28, 2014 8:39am Nov 28, 2014 8:39am
Quoting StrayDog
To be honest, never crossed my mind that oil and solar stocks have such strong correlation. CSIQ 8% down....
CSIQ is a mover, dropping towards $24 - I see volume in the calls
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,045
  • Nov 28, 2014 8:55am Nov 28, 2014 8:55am
Quoting The Fool
This is in profit about 40% of its max potential - around $0.36 on a $0.16 risk. ...
Nice one TF.

I still don't understand correlation between solar & oil... but do I really must know everything?

I turned my platform off since my internet connection briefly disconnected for about 10 times last 2 hours...
- "Just reset your router...." they said.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,046
  • Nov 28, 2014 9:13am Nov 28, 2014 9:13am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Nice one TF. I still don't understand correlation between solar & oil... but do I really must know everything?
well, it's not crystal clear. As far as power generation goes, there's very little direct oil-to-electricity generating plant in the US. You see oil and diesel generating plant in some places in the less-developed world, though. A little clearer when you consider electric vehicles: falling oil price impacts ev sales - but the connection to solar power there is not necessarily strong, either.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,047
  • Nov 28, 2014 9:28am Nov 28, 2014 9:28am
looks like /CL trying to make a new low into the close. I am on the fence re: DVN
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,048
  • Nov 28, 2014 9:59am Nov 28, 2014 9:59am
Quoting The Fool
looks like /CL trying to make a new low into the close. I am on the fence re: DVN
out of DVN vertical, $0.16 debit made a $0.46 credit, net $0.30, good enough
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,049
  • Nov 28, 2014 7:27pm Nov 28, 2014 7:27pm
How low will oil go? If the Saudis really want to crush the US shale oil boom and then boomerang back to higher prices, we might see a persistent takedown to <$60, maybe even as low as $50/bbl. I will be doing research on N. American oil/gas companies this weekend. There may be some dc bounce action to sell early next week. For the longer term, identify the best of the bunch and play long dated options for a turnaround in mid-late 2015.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,050
  • Nov 28, 2014 7:48pm Nov 28, 2014 7:48pm
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102223823?__s...&doc=102223823#.

Junk in da twunk. Who is gonna be left holding all that shale boom bad paper?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,051
  • Nov 28, 2014 8:28pm Nov 28, 2014 8:28pm
steep selloffs make me dizzy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,052
  • Nov 28, 2014 8:37pm Nov 28, 2014 8:37pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote}I still don't understand correlation between solar & oil
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/solar...181200102.html

I will watch for a bounce in the strongest solar stocks - FSLR, SPWR...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,053
  • Nov 28, 2014 10:13pm Nov 28, 2014 10:13pm
http://www.businessinsider.com/energ...-bonds-2014-10
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/1...about-to-crash#
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,054
  • Edited 9:27pm Nov 29, 2014 8:14pm | Edited 9:27pm
My Brazilian addiction continues. EWZ was due a bounce last week on good news about Dilma's cabinet, but it was cut short (via major holding PBR) by OPEC. I might shoot for a Dec bounce, though. The Dec $43/$44 call vertical risks $20 and pays $80 if it will move enough.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,055
  • Nov 29, 2014 10:54pm Nov 29, 2014 10:54pm
IVR is high in the oil stocks, looking through some of those for potential trades of all kinds. Since I am studying butterflies this weekend, I will be looking at possible BrkWB, BWB, etc...

This DVN BrkWB risks $0.25 (downside) to make $1.37 max at expiry. I will be waiting/watching on the oil stocks because it's likely the dust has not settled yet, we could see more downward action in the coming week...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-29_dvn1.png Size: 61 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,056
  • Nov 29, 2014 11:20pm Nov 29, 2014 11:20pm
why not do opposing put/call BrkWB's that go on for small credit - buy protection to the upside and downside?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-29_su02.png Size: 54 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,057
  • Edited 10:45am Nov 30, 2014 1:04am | Edited 10:45am
Quoting The Fool
why not do opposing put/call BrkWB's that go on for small credit - buy protection to the upside and downside?
a better pair of BrkWB's can be set up. I get what the tastytrade folks talk about with "laddering" butterfly spreads at earnings. The ironic thing about trading these, though, is that you setup better when IVR is high - you pay less, which is necessary because the pop is low - BECAUSE the i.v. is high. Right? You need high i.v. to get in cheap, but since i.v. IS high, the pop is lowered - because with all of these you are trying to pin a strike. Nevertheless, I see the attraction...

Anyway, insofar as the frackers and other oil stocks go, pinning a strike now is gonna be a real crap shoot. I need to see how things shake out early in the new week...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,058
  • Nov 30, 2014 1:09am Nov 30, 2014 1:09am
The other thing I picked up from Liz n Jenny is this: the fly spreads are enticing because you can get in cheap, but you have to watch out - you (may) have to buy to close your double shorts, which could be a pain on something illiquid, so, as always, think ahead to the exit and how expensive that may be due to crummy spreads...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,059
  • Nov 30, 2014 8:44am Nov 30, 2014 8:44am
Quoting The Fool
The other thing I picked up from Liz n Jenny is this: the fly spreads are enticing because you can get in cheap, but you have to watch out - you (may) have to buy to close your double shorts, which could be a pain on something illiquid, so, as always, think ahead to the exit and how expensive that may be due to crummy spreads...
Exactly, any of multi-leg combos like Butterflies, Iron Condors, Iron Flies and so on are crap on less liquid options, due to wide bid/ask spreads. Also, commissions add up...

Interesting article I have just finished reading:
The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,060
  • Nov 30, 2014 11:14am Nov 30, 2014 11:14am
thanks, SDog, I'll have to read that when I get more coffee in me. I see they're already calling the Swiss gold vote "no" - which was presumed for weeks before anyway. I will be watching gold in early Asian Monday. I am in a Dec/Dec4 $110/$109 GLD diagonal that may be challenged. Perhaps "no" was priced in, but the OPEC "no" also helped drag it down heavily on Friday. Idk though, with the various sovereign moves around gold lately, I kinda think the price will be supported. We'll see. The vid clip below shows the P/L progression in my double diagonal from 12/3 thru expiry...

http://screencast.com/t/nqmbXy1ksT
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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