Attachments: Diversified Trend Trading Approach

Diversified Trend Trading Approach

#101
Edited Nov 29, 2014 12:56am Nov 28, 2014 10:33pm | Edited Nov 29, 2014 12:56am

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

Something I personally do over the weekends is review the weekly charts to identify the following:

Overall trend direction of currency pairs in the portfolio;
Review volatility and propensity for current trend trading based on a long term visual history assessment of the instrument;
Determine longer term trend nature and weekly direction to bias my view of daily trends on the watchlist; and
Determine whether current trend performance is consistent with long term history or an anomaly.

While I recognise that many traders would be saying 'why keep instruments in your portfolio that do not have a great track record with trends ?'....my philosophy is that all instruments have their day in the sun....and it is impossible to predict when that will happen. There is more than enough upside potential in this approach through its diversified nature to allow for some instruments to have very stagnant periods.....so I keep them in. What is not trending today, may very well trend tomorrow.

Over the next few posts I will include charts of the weekly assessment. Annotation is included in the charts. If you have trouble reading them then I will start including the annotations in the post.

AUDJPY - Weekly

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.....more to follow in later posts.

#102
Nov 28, 2014 10:35pm Nov 28, 2014 10:35pm

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

AUDUSD Weekly

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CADJPY Weekly

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....more to come.

#103
Nov 28, 2014 11:10pm Nov 28, 2014 11:10pm

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

GBPUSD Weekly

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ASX Weekly

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....more to come.

#104
Nov 28, 2014 11:19pm Nov 28, 2014 11:19pm

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

DJI (Dow Jones)

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Name: DJI Weekly Trend Assessment.JPG
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EURAUD

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.......more to come.

#105
Nov 28, 2014 11:29pm Nov 28, 2014 11:29pm

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

EURJPY Weekly

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EURUSD Weekly

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....more to come shortly.

#106
Nov 28, 2014 11:49pm Nov 28, 2014 11:49pm

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

EURCAD Weekly

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NIKKEI Weekly (the top performer)

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#107
Nov 28, 2014 11:58pm Nov 28, 2014 11:58pm

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

FTSE Weekly

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USDCAD Weekly

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#108
Nov 29, 2014 12:10am Nov 29, 2014 12:10am

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

USDCHF Weekly

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USDJPY Weekly

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#109
Nov 29, 2014 12:28am Nov 29, 2014 12:28am

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

AUDCAD Weekly

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DAX Weekly

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XAUUSD (Spot Gold) Weekly

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USDSGD Weekly

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#110
Edited 1:14am Nov 29, 2014 12:54am | Edited 1:14am

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

This post should wrap the weekly assessment up.

NZDUSD

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Name: NZDUSD Weekly Trend Assessment.JPG
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XAGUSD (Spot Silver)

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NZDJPY

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NZDCAD

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GBPSGD

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That's it folks. I probably won't be doing this again but it gives you an idea of how you can be occupied over the weekend preparing for next weeks outlook.

Regards

C

PS I apologise for the typo's in the chart annotation. The small font proves problematic to read when editing.

#111
Nov 29, 2014 2:45am Nov 29, 2014 2:45am

bassramy
Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Cut Your Losses, Ride Your Winners. | 2,914 Posts

Quoting Copernicus

Disliked

I might leave it here for the moment. This forum is great but can be a bit distracting. There is more than enough here for anyone interested to chew on....(probably too much) but I wish you all well. I will periodically pop in to see how it's going and to see if anyone has got any good ideas regarding amendments and variations. Best of luck and I wish you all the best as we enter the festive season. Regards C

Ignored

Don't have to update it every day, a weekly recap will be nice and less work.

Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)

#112
Nov 29, 2014 2:48am Nov 29, 2014 2:48am

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

Quoting bassramy

Disliked

{quote} Don't have to update it every day, a weekly recap will be nice and less work.

Ignored

A good idea. Thanks B :-)

#113
Nov 29, 2014 2:59am Nov 29, 2014 2:59am

bassramy
Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Cut Your Losses, Ride Your Winners. | 2,914 Posts

Quoting Copernicus

Disliked

This post should wrap the weekly assessment up. NZDUSD {image} XAGUSD (Spot Silver) {image} NZDJPY {image} NZDCAD {image} GBPSGD {image} That's it folks. I probably won't be doing this again but it gives you an idea of how you can be occupied over the weekend preparing for next weeks outlook. Regards C PS I apologise for the typo's in the chart annotation. The small font proves problematic to read when editing.

Ignored

OK, you got me hooked, excellent analysis, keep doing this every week and i will keep coming back for more, in line with everything i do every week and every month.

Great work.

Best,
B.R.

Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)

#114
Nov 29, 2014 3:01am Nov 29, 2014 3:01am

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

Quoting bassramy

Disliked

{quote} OK, you got me hooked, excellent analysis, keep doing this every week and i will keep coming back for more, in line with everything i do every week and every month. Great work. Best, B.R.

Ignored

Ta B

I thought this approach might ferret out the trendies amongst us.....

#115
Nov 29, 2014 9:26pm Nov 29, 2014 9:26pm

pakeha
| Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Trader | 435 Posts

C

Agree with Bassramy. Don't kill yourself, and yes - it is great work. Once a week would be awesome.

Again, many thanks for the spreadsheet - that is what differentiates this strategy from 90% of what I see on this forum. Proven results!

Pakeha

#116
Nov 29, 2014 11:39pm Nov 29, 2014 11:39pm

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

Quoting pakeha

Disliked

C Agree with Bassramy. Don't kill yourself, and yes - it is great work. Once a week would be awesome. Again, many thanks for the spreadsheet - that is what differentiates this strategy from 90% of what I see on this forum. Proven results! Pakeha

Ignored

Thanks Pak :-)

#117
Dec 5, 2014 8:38pm Dec 5, 2014 8:38pm

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

Weekly Wrapup

A tough trading week for a subdued market aside from two major moves both of which I was on the wrong side of, namely the gold/silver spike early on in the week followed by the Draghi announcement and impact on associated currency pairs. Last night saw a return to form for the approach with some nice trends emerging and a bit of momentum picking up.

Below is a summary of closed positions for the week.

DJI: (-34 pips). In retrospect this was a poor trading decision as the W1 chart did not confirm a clear trend direction.

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XAGUSD: (-141.1 pips) - A painful reversal which caught me off guard. Sometimes you just have to suck it up. Fortunately I did not take a position in gold which also sufferred the same fate.

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EURAUD: (-68.5 pips) - It would have got me anyway later with the Draghi announcement. It was a poor trade decision to start with as stated in my prior W1 assessment and I deserved a good spanking on this.

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ASX: (-74.1 pips) - If I had taken heed of my own logic in my prior W1 assessent I probably would have avoided this trade. That's what happens in the heat of the moment when you are scrambling for action with too many distractions. With more attention to the screen this may have been avoided.

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USDCHF: (-88.2 pips) - Thanks to Mario Draghi, this was a near perfect storm. Ouch :-(

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EURUSD: (-126.6 pips) - As above.....but this was the perfect storm....double ouch. Did I mention that I hated Europeans /tic

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.....well that is the bad news over. Coming up is the better news.

C

#118
Edited 11:50pm Dec 5, 2014 9:15pm | Edited 11:50pm

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

Trades still open for the week.

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USDSGD - (currently +376.5 pips) This is turning into a lovely trend trade and I have been riding this since 31 Oct 2014.

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DAX - (currently +511.5 pips) Heading towards 2.5R and things are looking Ok.

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AUDUSD - (currently +146.9 pips)

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NIKKEI - (currently +340.5 pips)

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USDJPY - (currently +207.5 pips)

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AUDCAD - (currently +19.6 pips). The second bite at this cherry.

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CADJPY - (currently +43.8 pips)

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DJI - (currently +22.5 pips). Anoher bite at the cherry.

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EURJPY - (currently -11.4 pips)

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My next post will be the portfolio status and then that should be it for the week.

C

#119
Dec 5, 2014 9:56pm Dec 5, 2014 9:56pm

Copernicus
| Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts

Portfolio Status

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Those charts in D1 mode are in wait and watch condition. Those charts in H1 timeframe are currently live trades.

AUDJPY- Nothing exciting here. This pair is currently trading in a congestion channel. I am anticipating over the longer term a bullish breakout at the green predictive line.

GBPUSD - Am anticipating a short breakout at 1.5521.

ASX - Despite my longer term bearish outlook we may have a shorter term rally. I am not too eager to trade this index until clearer signs emerge on W1 for a direction.

EURAUD - I am anticipating a long breakout and I am likely to enter the trade for a long at the green predictive line.

EURUSD - A very bearish outlook and my trigger finger is getting itchy. Will go short at green predictive line.

EURCAD - Not too sure where this is heading so will wait and watch.

FTSE - Currently some large undecisive bars on D1 so I will wait till the dust settles on this before making a decision.

USDCAD - I am waiting for further confirmation before entering long on this pair.

USDCHF - As above for USDCAD.

XAUUSD - Some games are going on with this pair at the moment (like silver). Will wait for clearer signs of direction on this before entering.

NZDUSD - This is shaping up well for an imminent short position.

XAGUSD - refer to gold above (XAUUSD).

NZDJPY - This is shaping up well for an imminent long position.

NZDCAD - Waiting for clear signs of direction before getting interested in this pair.

GBPSGD - This is shaping up well for an imminent long position but will bide my time on this.

....that's it for the update.

Have a great trading week.

#120
Dec 6, 2014 3:18am Dec 6, 2014 3:18am

bassramy
Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Cut Your Losses, Ride Your Winners. | 2,914 Posts

Quoting Copernicus

Disliked

Weekly Wrapup A tough trading week for a subdued market aside from two major moves both of which I was on the wrong side of, namely the gold/silver spike early on in the week followed by the Draghi announcement and impact on associated currency pairs. Last night saw a return to form for the approach with some nice trends emerging and a bit of momentum picking up. Below is a summary of closed positions for the week. DJI: (-34 pips). In retrospect this was a poor trading decision as the W1 chart did not confirm a clear trend direction. {image} XAGUSD:...

Ignored

Thank you C., your work is much appreciated, keep it up.

This week was really a tough one, the ECB and the NFP surprised us all, the first with their No - Yes we are preparing a QE and the Second with a lot better than expected Numbers and these 2 events injected a lot of volatility in the Market specially the ECB.

As a long term D1 trend follower i was little affected, i was on the right side of 90 % of my trades specially the Yen Pairs, NZD - CHF - GBP - USD - CAD and i sold the EU Rally on the DTL (Down Trend Line) with a tight stop loss just over the DTL after the ECB Announcement and added another lot to my already 2 short, holding my AU pairs short for now which developed into nice trends.

So all is almost well, waiting for the Next week to reasses.

Best,
B.R.

Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)

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