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  • #81
  • Nov 20, 2014 5:20am Nov 20, 2014 5:20am
EUR/USD buying zone
The EUR/USD looks to be turning over as far as the short term is concerned, on the back of below expectation flash manufacturing PMI's in both France and Germany. We've signaled the area in which we may become interested buyers again, it involves the ascending channel support line, the 61.8% retrace, preferably the 35 RSI area, and finally a well defined support zone, where the buyers started the recent bullish impulse. We've outlined how a trade of this nature may look like, with around 5.5 to 1 risk reward. Keep in mind that our long term bias on EUR/USD is still bearish and so this kind of trade is not a long term trade by any means.
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  • #82
  • Nov 20, 2014 7:25am Nov 20, 2014 7:25am
GBP/JPY Pullback into Long Plan
The GBP/JPY has broke through resistance on an impulsive bull move. We're looking to buy the pair on a pullback to our role reversal zone, our entry should also coincide with the ascending trend-line as drawn in the chart. This is a basic breakout-pullback-continuation move, our entry is around the 184.60 handle, with a stop just below the zone and trend-line at around 184.150. We plan to trail out stop on this trade using future swing lows.
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  • #83
  • Nov 20, 2014 7:43am Nov 20, 2014 7:43am
Quoting diavolul
{quote} I am not a very good Elliot analist but the upside movement could go even further, Elliotically speaking, because the 4-wave could run just under the zone of the 2-wave zone. The beggining of the 2-wave is 1.7940 not 1.7900. But, yet again, the 1.79 it's reasonable conservative. Also, as an observation, this leg looks far too strong to be a forth leg of the bearish impulse. Looks like the bearish downturn has finnished for now and develops and 5-3-5 corection of some sort and now is developing A-wave of an zig-zag or something simillar....

Thank you once again for your superb analysis, it is most helpful indeed I hope you can contribute such quality analysis to our forums and site, you could even write a blog for us of your trading analysis and ideas if you'd like, stay in touch
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  • #84
  • Nov 23, 2014 3:41am Nov 23, 2014 3:41am
EUR/GBP Weekly Analysis for the Week of Nov 24-29:
http://www.investingacademy.co.uk/en...-of-nov-24-29/
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  • #85
  • Nov 23, 2014 4:17am Nov 23, 2014 4:17am
Gold Long-Term Analysis

Looking at the daily chart of Gold, we see quite a bit of zig-zag potential in the near future, we're looking to rally towards the descending trend-line, which may induce some selling, however we think there's some significant support still at the 1177-1188 zone. As such, we're not interested in taking a position on such a down move, but we may be interested in looking for a short after gold breaks through the trend-line and reaches a significant resistance area at around 1240-1254. In the meantime, we'd be looking to trade gold on shorter time-frames.
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  • #86
  • Nov 25, 2014 2:40am Nov 25, 2014 2:40am
EUR/USD Shorting Plan
Looking at the EUR/USD hourly chart, we can see the highly impulsive bearish wave marked as X. Currently, we're looking to be in a corrective sequence, we've outlined a general structure of how we'd like to trade this market. We're only looking for shorts, and we'd like to short the pair at the 50% correction, matched up with a support&resistance zone. This type of trade is a clear with-the-trend trade, which means we'd be looking to trail out stops and will be following market momentum closely.
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  • #87
  • Nov 25, 2014 2:51am Nov 25, 2014 2:51am
AUD/USD reversal trade
The Aussie is in rapid decline. It is approaching an interesting buying area for us, which is a point of confluence between a support zone, coupled with an ABCD formation completion. There's some indication in momentum that a bullish reversal may be in the horizon, and in general we like these type of trades as they carry high r&r, meaning we only need them to work out a small percentage of the time to show a good profit.
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  • #88
  • Nov 25, 2014 3:03am Nov 25, 2014 3:03am
GBP/JPY Long
The GBP/JPY is one of our favorite pairs as of late. It has just broken out of the kumo to the upside with a big bullish engulfing candle, on the back of a clearly defined support and resistance zone. RSI is looking to break the 50 equilibrium line, and we're buyers, aiming to ultimately breakout from the recent double top highs.
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  • #89
  • Nov 25, 2014 3:41am Nov 25, 2014 3:41am
AUD/CAD breakout pullback plan
The AUD/CAD has broken out impulsively to the downside, we've got the 0.96800 marked as our handle to short a pullback. It is also the 38.2% of the latest move downwards, and may coincide with the current descending trend-line area. If the pair does correct towards this marked area, we'd be sellers with a fairly tight 50 point stop and a trailing stop mechanism, aiming to move downwards with the trend and place stops at future swing highs within the bear trend.
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  • #90
  • Nov 25, 2014 5:18am Nov 25, 2014 5:18am
USD/CAD looking for long entry
The USD/CAD is trading within a well structured ascending channel. We're looking for the pair to find some resistance at current prices, from both the descending trend-line as well as the kumo cloud. We'd like to buy the pair if it finds support back in the channel ascending support, with backup from momentum, possibly stochastic at the 50 equilibrium point. At that point we'd be interested, and we'll be looking for a kumo breakout+ breakout from the descending trend-line, which would trigger us long, aiming to the upper channel line area.
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  • #91
  • Nov 26, 2014 3:09am Nov 26, 2014 3:09am
AUD/NZD critical breakout, waiting for pullback
The AUD/NZD has just broken out from the long standing 1.09150 support level on the back of massive impulsive selling. We're very interested in trading a pullback back into this area, with the anticipation of it acting as a role reversal level; the level also coincides nicely with the 38.2% and 50% of the latest bearish impulsive waves.
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  • #92
  • Nov 26, 2014 3:24am Nov 26, 2014 3:24am
Oil may be basing
Crude Oil has declined back to the $73 per barrel lows. We're looking for a bounce off of these levels, corroborated by a bullish slow stochastic cross-back signal. we'd be buyers on a break of the current resistance line as marked on the chart. Our plan is to move our stop to break-even on a break of the descending trend-line. Our initial r&r will be around 2.5 to 1 on the trade.
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  • #93
  • Nov 26, 2014 4:04am Nov 26, 2014 4:04am
Dollar may be getting ready to move higher
The dollar index is looking bullish on the 1H chart. We have a nice XABCD type zig-zag formation, with the 61.8% holding up, and the dollar's consolidation between the 50-61.8 being broken to the upside. In addition, we've had the 200 SMA acting as support all along the consolidation phase. Therefore, we're dollar bulls for the immediate future.
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  • #94
  • Nov 26, 2014 5:08am Nov 26, 2014 5:08am
GBP/CAD Longer Term Shorting Plan
The GBP/CAD is trading higher, and has recently broken the descending trend-line. While current market momentum and sentiment is bullish, we still like this pair for a short in the bigger perspective of things. With that in mind, we've outlined the kind of scenario we'd be looking for in order to happily short the pair. What we're looking for is for price to keep correcting towards the support&resistance zone as marked on the chart, coupled with the 50 to 61.8 retracement of the big bear wave. If things work out in such fashion, we'd short the pair at atound the 1.79530 level, aiming for an impulsive wave to attack the lows at around 1.75500.
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  • #95
  • Nov 26, 2014 6:08am Nov 26, 2014 6:08am
EUR/USD Looking for breakout pullback short
The EUR/USD may be getting ready to break down on the back of a bearish zig-zag XABCD formation, with the 61.8% holding up. We're not interested in selling the breakout itself, however, we will be interested in following this possible breakout for a possible pullback to the descending trend-line and support-resistance zone. At that point we'd be sellers, looking to attack the 1.23570 lows.
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  • #96
  • Nov 26, 2014 6:30am Nov 26, 2014 6:30am
Copper looks to be building bullish potential
Copper has been trading lower lately, but seems to have set a bearish trap by breaking down the 2.950 lows, only to sharply reverse to the upside. It is now seeming to find a base of sorts, we're interested in buying copper on a break of the recent resistance coupled with a break of the descending trend-line.
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  • #97
  • Nov 26, 2014 12:30pm Nov 26, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting SamKent
GBP/CAD Longer Term Shorting Plan The GBP/CAD is trading higher, and has recently broken the descending trend-line. While current market momentum and sentiment is bullish, we still like this pair for a short in the bigger perspective of things. With that in mind, we've outlined the kind of scenario we'd be looking for in order to happily short the pair. What we're looking for is for price to keep correcting towards the support&resistance zone as marked on the chart, coupled with the 50 to 61.8 retracement of the big bear wave. If things work out...
I look at the image and still don't get the notation, it must be Elliot waves, wright? Cause you have an impulse, where you put the 1. And then where it suppose to be the corrective 2, you have labeled it 2, 3, 4, what are those numbers, please?
  • #98
  • Nov 27, 2014 1:19am Nov 27, 2014 1:19am
GBP/USD trading at tipping zone

The GBP/USD is currently trading at an interesting zone in our view, one which we might call a tipping point between bulls and bears. The 1.5790 which served as support and was recently broken down from may serve now as resistance. This consolidation zone also coincides with the 50-61.8 fib correction of the impulsive bear move. On the other hand, the pair has recently formed an ascending channel structure, and may now be using the upper line as supportive, which would be a strong bullish sign. It is also worth mentioning that recent price action has been extremely bullish, with 2 major impulsive bullish candles.
Due to all of these considerations, we're neutral on the pair at the moment, and we're looking for a clear breakout of the consolidation zone to one side or another. At that point we'll have our bias to the long or the short side and begin looking for good entry points.
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  • #99
  • Nov 27, 2014 5:42am Nov 27, 2014 5:42am
Quoting diavolul
{quote} I look at the image and still don't get the notation, it must be Elliot waves, wright? Cause you have an impulse, where you put the 1. And then where it suppose to be the corrective 2, you have labeled it 2, 3, 4, what are those numbers, please?

Hey man, yeah, sorry about the notation. Actually, it wasn't mean to signify an Eliot wave sequence, was just a notation I put so that I could refer to the points at which we expect probable market turns. I'm sorry for the confusion, I'll be sure to make things clearer next time
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  • #100
  • Nov 27, 2014 5:52am Nov 27, 2014 5:52am
EUR/GBP at crossroads

The EUR/GBP is at an interesting technical point, it has used the 0.7900 and 50% correction of the big bull move as support, and may now be getting ready to retest it. The pair is trading below the cloud and seems to be using the kijun sen as resistance. We're very interested in following future price action here, a kumo and swing high break to the upside should send us back to retesting the 0.80400 highs, and as such would turn us bullish on the pair. Conversely, if the pair breaks the recent lows, with kijun resistance and future kumo resistance, we'd be bearish on the pair, looking to attack the triple bottom lows at around the 0.7800 handle.
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