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Diversified Trend Trading Approach

  • #81
  • Nov 25, 2014 3:09am Nov 25, 2014 3:09am
A snapshot of active trades (on HI) and inactive trades (watch and wait mode on D1) in the portfolio.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Current trade status.JPG Size: 532 KB



Only one trade remaining from October (USDSGD) with 5 trades entered in November.

18 instruments currently on watch and wait mode.

I would anticipate that the great trend season we have experienced up to now is coming to an end and I wouldn't be surprised if we experience subdued volatility for a while as the markets equilibrate and take some breath....but this is just a bit of crystal ball gazing. October was a stunning month (thank you Japan) racking up the best monthly return I have yet experienced with this approach in the past (nearly) 2 years.

Once the final trade for October is over (USDSGD) I will post the updated analysis spreadsheet for a bit of a *on paper only* boast.
  • #82
  • Nov 25, 2014 6:10am Nov 25, 2014 6:10am
Quoting Copernicus
Hi Pak It's not looking good and never has following the sloppy entry I did. I deserve to get a slap around the chops with this one. :-( Sounds like you are getting the hang of the approach :-) Here is the current status. Is this what you get? A loss is shaping up of about 0.8 to 0.9 R. {image} Regards C PS AUDCAD is shaping up quite well on D1 and my trigger finger is getting itchy. Your thoughts?
Yep, mine looks the same. Bounced nicely off the top SD line on my chart (to the pip), so still in the trade. Will see what the news brings
  • #83
  • Nov 25, 2014 6:15am Nov 25, 2014 6:15am
Quoting Copernicus
A snapshot of active trades (on HI) and inactive trades (watch and wait mode on D1) in the portfolio. {image} Only one trade remaining from October (USDSGD) with 5 trades entered in November. 18 instruments currently on watch and wait mode. I would anticipate that the great trend season we have experienced up to now is coming to an end and I wouldn't be surprised if we experience subdued volatility for a while as the markets equilibrate and take some breath....but this is just a bit of crystal ball gazing. October was a stunning month (thank you...
With EU QE coming up sometime in the next few months and possibly rate increases in 2015 by US and UK (and maybe others) then there should be some nice big moves during the next 12 month period.
  • #84
  • Nov 25, 2014 6:18am Nov 25, 2014 6:18am
So far like you I have survived by a whisker. It appears to be moving into safer territory but that is just the benefit of hindsight. Let's hope those announcements go our way.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD Whisker H1.JPG Size: 205 KB


I see you are over in Canada. I wish I had your weather. It is blistering here down under. :-(
  • #85
  • Nov 25, 2014 6:22am Nov 25, 2014 6:22am
Quoting pakeha
{quote} With EU QE coming up sometime in the next few months and possibly rate increases in 2015 by US and UK (and maybe others) then there should be some nice big moves during the next 12 month period.
That would be nice. I was trading a similar approach a few years back under high volatility and really wish things got rocking again. Still the art lies in staying alive long enough to enjoy those few occassions.

Take care and keep me posted :-)
  • #86
  • Nov 25, 2014 6:32am Nov 25, 2014 6:32am
Quoting Copernicus
So far like you I have survived by a whisker. It appears to be moving into safer territory but that is just the benefit of hindsight. Let's hope those announcements go our way. I see you are over in Canada. I wish I had your weather. It is blistering here down under. :-(
Not sure you would want our weather at this time of the year Can be very cold in parts of this country, and "monsoon" on the west coast. That said I was down your way for a family wedding in Qld during your winter and that was warm enough for me - perfect temps.
  • #87
  • Edited 6:50am Nov 25, 2014 6:39am | Edited 6:50am
Quoting pakeha
{quote} Not sure you would want our weather at this time of the year Can be very cold in parts of this country, and "monsoon" on the west coast. That said I was down your way for a family wedding in Qld during your winter and that was warm enough for me - perfect temps.
The Sunshine State. That's where I am based (Brisbane) and trust me....you wouldn't want this November. I hope you were here at least when it was green (which thinking longingly back to winter it was). I hail from colder climates (Tasmania) and this State is only good for lizards at the moment.....*gasps* :-)

....anyway, back to the game.

PS Your tip regarding CAD seems to be playing out. It's strength seems to be calling the show in the pairs at the moment. It will be great if Thursday's announcement gives even more impetus to things. Thanks for the heads up on this.
  • #88
  • Edited 8:34am Nov 25, 2014 7:11am | Edited 8:34am
Just a tip for this approach.

I tend to be fairly anal in redrawing my SDC's early on in a trades life from entry as it helps to progressively ratchet the SDC in a favourable direction to get you moving towards BE faster. So in this case (having recently entered AUDCAD), every time a new low is reached I redraw. It also helps doing this practice to get quick at doing it.

It's hard to see but on a drill down you should be able to observe the tilt (or ratchet) happening with the yellow exit line. The beauty of the SDC is that at all times during the trade it is progressively biasing the probabilities in your favour based on actual price data accumulated over the course of the trend. That is what I refer to as active trade management (without you having to make subjective judgement calls in moving stops, redefining profit targets etc).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD H1 Trade Management.JPG Size: 217 KB


C
  • #89
  • Nov 25, 2014 9:18am Nov 25, 2014 9:18am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} The Sunshine State. That's where I am based (Brisbane) and trust me....you wouldn't want this November. I hope you were here at least when it was green (which thinking longingly back to winter it was). I hail from colder climates (Tasmania) and this State is only good for lizards at the moment.....*gasps* :-) ....anyway, back to the game. PS Your tip regarding CAD seems to be playing out. It's strength seems to be calling the show in the pairs at the moment. It will be great if Thursday's announcement gives even more impetus to things. Thanks...
Not sure about volumes on Thursday/Friday given it's US Thanksgiving. So will be interesting. The CAD retail news today worked well on the AUDCAD. US GDP data was strong so CAD retail sales data didn't have as much impact on USDCAD.
  • #90
  • Nov 25, 2014 3:57pm Nov 25, 2014 3:57pm
Quoting pakeha
{quote} Not sure about volumes on Thursday/Friday given it's US Thanksgiving. So will be interesting. The CAD retail news today worked well on the AUDCAD. US GDP data was strong so CAD retail sales data didn't have as much impact on USDCAD.
Ta Pak
  • #91
  • Nov 26, 2014 12:58am Nov 26, 2014 12:58am
where & what is the rules that you start draw standar deviation?
  • #92
  • Nov 26, 2014 5:03am Nov 26, 2014 5:03am
Quoting ravenclaw
where & what is the rules that you start draw standar deviation?
It's fairly well detailed if you have a read of the thread. Practice using some of the examples provided. It's pretty easy to use.
  • #93
  • Nov 26, 2014 5:19am Nov 26, 2014 5:19am
Might be having a crack at AUDUSD shortly. Waiting for a bit of momentum to pick up.

D1

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD D1.JPG Size: 197 KB



H1

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H1.JPG Size: 199 KB
  • #94
  • Nov 26, 2014 5:27am Nov 26, 2014 5:27am
I might leave it here for the moment. This forum is great but can be a bit distracting.

There is more than enough here for anyone interested to chew on....(probably too much) but I wish you all well.

I will periodically pop in to see how it's going and to see if anyone has got any good ideas regarding amendments and variations.

Best of luck and I wish you all the best as we enter the festive season.

Regards

C
  • #95
  • Nov 28, 2014 8:01pm Nov 28, 2014 8:01pm
To control my addiction to this forum I thought I might post weekly wrap ups for anyone following this approach for comparative purposes and also to highlight any points worh mentioning or re-emphasising.

Following on from prior posts on the portfolio, the end of the week saw a subdued market associated with the licking of wounds on those traders exposed to Japan's recent significant trend movements and also those partaking in the fat turkey for thanksgiving.

Three exits on the portfolio.

FTSE

A second bit at this cherry which in this instance was moderately rewarding yielding 110.8 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FTSE H1 Exit.JPG Size: 217 KB



USDCAD

A nemesis trade which got off on the wrong foot right from the start. I deserved to get a boot up the backside on this and I did with a -95.8 pip hit. Note however that the SDC ensures that provided you have time in trend you will never get hit with a total 1R loss. The SDC helps to ensure when you have called it incorrectly, it will assist in reducing your risk exposure on the trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD H1 Exit.JPG Size: 223 KB


AUDCAD

Despite best efforts and sticking to the strategy, you just have to pay the piper sometimes. Just accept it, pat yourself on the back for sticking to the strategy and move on....nothing to see here. A -23.3 pip hit. :-)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD H1 Exit.JPG Size: 211 KB
  • #96
  • Nov 28, 2014 8:22pm Nov 28, 2014 8:22pm
Weekly Wrapup continued....

Three live trades remaining in the portfolio of 24, emphasising the subdued nature of the current portfolio.

DJI

Trading in a horizontal congestion pattern at the moment with signs that this trend might end. The pessimist in me is anticipating a small loss or breakeven results.....but the fat lady isn't singing quite yet.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DJI H1 Curent Status.JPG Size: 205 KB


DAX

Currently sitting in a nice trend and hope for price to reach 2.5R profit where I will adjust the SDC accordingly. Note that when redrawing the SDC to the highest high, I always choose the most recent high when we deal with 2 or more data points.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX H1 Curent Status.JPG Size: 228 KB



USDSGD

I might be in for a long haul ride on this one. I entered in late October and there are no current signs that this trend will end. Note that the trade results from this pair will be reflected in October 2014 rather than November 2014 results. In viewing performance results in my opinion, when you entered reveals more relevant info about market conditions than when you exited. This trade fits in October as it was the result of great trending conditions of the overall market at the tale end of October with the resulting trade extending into November or even maybe December etc.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDSGD H1 Curent Status.JPG Size: 241 KB
  • #97
  • Nov 28, 2014 8:24pm Nov 28, 2014 8:24pm
Copernicus

Yep, with oil plummeting, its sell CAD for the foreseeable future. This is an attempt by the big guys to shake out the shale oil and heavy oil suppliers in Canada and the US by ensuring over-supply and lower price. I can see a shakeout in shale oil, however the tar sands investments are massive and long term so they are deeply invested already - just wont see much new stuff.

What instruments are worth watching for breakouts next week?
  • #98
  • Nov 28, 2014 8:31pm Nov 28, 2014 8:31pm
Weekly Wrapup continued...

We have 3 live trades (sitting on H1 TF) and 21 instruments sitting in D1 Wait and Watch Mode.

Some emerging 'trending' candidates that appear to be taking shape at the moment are as follows....but this is simply crystal ball gazing:

  1. AUDUSD - Looking nice and consistent for a short.
  2. CADJPY - Emerging well for a possible short.
  3. ASX - Looking for a fast breakdown on this for a short trade.
  4. EURAUD - For a short and furious ride to the (EDIT...Correction guys...to the upside).
  5. EURUSD - Emerging short but might take some time
  6. USDCAD - Keeping an eye on this for a long
  7. USDJPY - Shaping up for another bite of a long cherry on this.
  8. NZDJPY - As above for USDJPY

Hopefully things start picking up steam next week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Portfolio Status.JPG Size: 503 KB
  • #99
  • Nov 28, 2014 8:38pm Nov 28, 2014 8:38pm
Quoting pakeha
Copernicus Yep, with oil plummeting, its sell CAD for the foreseeable future. This is an attempt by the big guys to shake out the shale oil and heavy oil suppliers in Canada and the US by ensuring over-supply and lower price. I can see a shakeout in shale oil, however the tar sands investments are massive and long term so they are deeply invested already - just wont see much new stuff. What instruments are worth watching for breakouts next week?

Hi Pak. Looks like I was on the wrong side last week....but ready to pounce. Thanks for the debrief. :-)
  • #100
  • Nov 28, 2014 8:46pm Nov 28, 2014 8:46pm
I did mention that I would wait to provide an analysis update till the last of the October trades was over.....but this could take some time.

Please find attached the analytic spreadsheet below for those who like trawling through the stats (looking at you Pak and mkfx ).

I have added some pertinent graphs on the summary page that look at 'approach consistency' and risk management. I have also got rid of those dang ###/div errors in the expectancy sheet.

That's it for the Weekly Update....

Have a great trading week next week. :-)

Regards

C
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx $200K No Compound - Daily Trend Strategy 1.xlsx   3.2 MB | 496 downloads
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