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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #51,161
  • Nov 25, 2014 8:27am Nov 25, 2014 8:27am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi, FXMasterSK, thanks. i noticed your question on breakouts and fakeouts in the other thread, well, to answer your question, i need to know when exactly are you asking this question? before the breakout? during the breakout? or after the breakout? if you want it before, there is no way to know, as no one has the crystalball.
Hey CookieMonsta,

Thanks for your detailed explanation! I actually do pretty much what you do as well. I think you are referring to my question posted on the Institutional Traders thread? When I meant fake breakout vs. real breakout, I really meant is there any way we could try to tilt odds in our favor of telling whether the breakout has real backing to it, or whether it was a stop run, before the retrace movement. The way price acts can tell a story to those willing to listen, and as a good trader we must definitely be able to act at moments notice. I believe FTI uses the three kingdoms and when one pair acts out of sync from the others, something is not right. This doesn't mean that it was a stop run of course, in markets anything can happen as orders come in and go. A fake breakout does not have to be a stop run as new orders could come in and overpower the previous breakout orders. A good trader like I said should be able to react quickly. However, it does provide an indicator whether it was a stop run or not, and this is tilting the odds in our favor. Other traders watch equity markets and bonds as they are correlated to FX. Capital flows are very related nowadays across various assets. I was just wondering what other tactics FX dealers use to track these money flows as they can provide a better edge.

Thanks again for your post!

Btw anyone know what's up with FTI? I don't know if it's like him to be gone without mentioning anything.

-SK
  • #51,162
  • Nov 25, 2014 8:50am Nov 25, 2014 8:50am
SK yes chief does!!!
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #51,163
  • Nov 25, 2014 9:58am Nov 25, 2014 9:58am
Quoting priceaction1
SK yes chief does!!!
Haha okay price glad to know. You know him much better than I and I was just making sure he's alright. Man talking to you reminds me of Pakistan, those delicious sweets lol. They don't make them as good here.
  • #51,164
  • Nov 25, 2014 4:57pm Nov 25, 2014 4:57pm
[quote=jack108;7898970]
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi, FXMasterSK, thanks. i noticed your question on breakouts and fakeouts in the other thread, well, to answer your question, i need to know when exactly are you asking this question? before the breakout? during the breakout? or after the breakout? if you want it before, there is ........../quote] hi cookiemonsta, like your explanation very much!
Hi, jack108, thanks
  • #51,165
  • Nov 25, 2014 5:05pm Nov 25, 2014 5:05pm
Quoting FXMasterSK
{quote} Hey CookieMonsta, Thanks for your detailed explanation! I actually do pretty much what you do as well. I think you are referring to my question posted on the Institutional Traders thread? When I meant fake breakout vs. real breakout, I really meant is there any way we could try to tilt odds in our favor of telling whether the breakout has real backing to it, or whether it was a stop run, before the retrace movement. The way price acts can tell a story to those willing to listen, and as a good trader we must definitely be able to act at moments...
Hi, FXMasterSK, there is some way to tell, just pretend you are a dealer, you are with the trend net long at 0.8575, and this is the end of the London morning session at us 7am, there is news at nfp later at us morning 8.30am, you might deal with high volatility, would you gun the stops at 0.8600 to square down your iinventory and lighten your skew if you are exiting? So during these events, typically everyone is first looking to cover their behinds then after the news, then they reskew up or reenter the markets
  • #51,166
  • Nov 25, 2014 9:44pm Nov 25, 2014 9:44pm
Hi frens,

here is a fairly informative article using simple examples on the fx rigging scandal and the workings of the forex market

https://medium.com/bull-market/orang...e-cd3456089ce4
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #51,167
  • Nov 26, 2014 12:14am Nov 26, 2014 12:14am
..... euro crosses suggesting to me that there MAY be a short opportunity in e/u soon, waiting to find a place for the scout ATM..... around 85 looks interesting.

hope fti is ok

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,168
  • Nov 26, 2014 12:52am Nov 26, 2014 12:52am
Quoting phil13
..... euro crosses suggesting to me that there MAY be a short opportunity in e/u soon, waiting to find a place for the scout ATM..... around 85 looks interesting. hope fti is ok regards Phil.

Watchin' same thing-->gone long so now what??
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #51,169
  • Nov 26, 2014 12:57am Nov 26, 2014 12:57am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Watchin' same thing-->gone long so now what??
Hi Alexandria

that MAY have been a stop run , only time will tell, but long or short i hope we both come out +pips.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,170
  • Nov 26, 2014 12:59am Nov 26, 2014 12:59am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alexandria that MAY have been a stop run , only time will tell, but long or short i hope we both come out +pips. regards Phil.
Yeh watching the "potential" hunt on m15 too ...
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #51,171
  • Nov 26, 2014 1:06am Nov 26, 2014 1:06am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Yeh watching the "potential" hunt on m15 too ...
Hi Alexandria

was in M15 but i have slipped down to M5 now watching the reaction to the run to try to max my attach if opportunity presents.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,172
  • Nov 26, 2014 1:07am Nov 26, 2014 1:07am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alexandria was in M15 but i have slipped down to M5 now watching the reaction to the run to try to max my attach if opportunity presents. regards Phil.
Watchin m5/m15/h1 eur --mostly m5 -- scout in --took some pips in run down to rescue

I never know when to attack on swing turn or individual candle or feel (m5 candles spook me out) - not good at this pump thingy yet.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #51,173
  • Nov 26, 2014 1:12am Nov 26, 2014 1:12am
took some off at 55 (bottom of first range for me). let rest ride for now.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,174
  • Nov 26, 2014 1:18am Nov 26, 2014 1:18am
out for now.... watching p/a for next move to possibly go again????

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,175
  • Nov 26, 2014 1:18am Nov 26, 2014 1:18am
Quoting phil13
took some off at 55 (bottom of first range for me). let rest ride for now. regards Phil.
Yeh I did same - did you leave scout in?
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #51,176
  • Nov 26, 2014 1:22am Nov 26, 2014 1:22am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Watchin m5/m15/h1 eur --mostly m5 -- scout in --took some pips in run down to rescue I never know when to attack on swing turn or individual candle or feel (m5 candles spook me out) - not good at this pump thingy yet.
Hi Alexandria

are using/looking at candles for what the mainstream say are signals???

regards

Phil.

no scout still in, i prefer to start the process again with the new leg i am chasing.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,177
  • Nov 26, 2014 1:33am Nov 26, 2014 1:33am
scouting for the next possible leg now...

regards

Phil.

prelim bus' investment fig's not good on GBP
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,178
  • Nov 26, 2014 1:47am Nov 26, 2014 1:47am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alexandria are using/looking at candles for what the mainstream say are signals??? regards Phil. no scout still in, i prefer to start the process again with the new leg i am chasing.
Yeh - I know the candles are games - coz they use it to affect me - so I know it works - I am starting to ignore them sort of but can use them to feel when power is back - I think. I probably take account more d1/h1/m15 candles in the right place. I guess I like to watch them do 1 thing and then see then turn - if I were "them" I would use them to play games too.

But attack confuses me as of now - PB 1st turn could be abc (or not or ????) so when can you attack it as the b wave could be made up of several candles that bring you into profit then out of it in the C wave - but if it keeps running then all is good so when should you get in attack- do not like trading swing breakout at breakout point as that is good sitting duck area and do not want to go the other way and then flip as that is trading against trend. Guess will learn by doing.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #51,179
  • Edited 2:36am Nov 26, 2014 2:20am | Edited 2:36am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Yeh - I know the candles are games - coz they use it to affect me - so I know it works - I am starting to ignore them sort of but can use them to feel when power is back - I think. I probably take account more d1/h1/m15 candles in the right place. I guess I like to watch them do 1 thing and then see then turn - if I were "them" I would use them to play games too. But attack confuses me as of now - PB 1st turn could be abc (or not or ????) so when can you attack it as the b wave could be made up of several candles that bring you into profit...
Hi Alexandria

the reason i asked about how you view candles is because most people (myself included when i started) just follow what they have read/been told, your brokers/all brokers promote that way of trading!!!... so play the games with them, if you know they play with us then there must still be a way of getting a clue right?? so they set up a nice candle/set of candles for us to throw our unsuspecting selves at, then WHAM they turn the market price, there is your clues.... broken set ups/set up not following through with the next candle you expected to see. as you say some set ups in the right place are good but what i have just said gives me further/more clues to add to the picture.

i personally do not do the abc wave thing, it is to confusing to me, i count the waves 123etc if relevant during my daylight which is about 6am-6pm.

i added my second scout at about 50% retrace, no other reason, it is as good a reason to add it there as any, then i go on feel mixing with what i am seeing direction wise, i do not hang on every candle, i see if they are continuing to 'break set ups' or if i think we may be at the top/bottom of what i think is the range, i use higher time frames for direction and ranges, M5 to try fine tune some entries. the euro crosses were creating flat and rounded tops in H1 and e/u was at/near top of a range, that is why i choose to short e/u this morning.

just come out of e/u again.... bottom of my range again.

regards

Phil.

may consider flipping to long here, let see what is offered..
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,180
  • Nov 26, 2014 2:38am Nov 26, 2014 2:38am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alexandria the reason i asked about how you view candles is
Yeh I understood what you were saying - I have used the candles in the way you said before - just my mind did it instinctively when they used an outside bear bar at end of run down - what happened next I used. I need to work on this aspect - I am slowly improving - I started just trying to feel it and was rather surprised at how well that went and now trying to improve - but I will be slow - taking it easy no stress - it is indeed an ant's job - and I need to improve lots but I am doing it each week. I will think about what you said and work on that aspect. Thanks.

Nice trading with you this morning. I am out too at the mo' - I got in earlier than you on prior turn and rescued in a good rescue

I watched same thing as you for eur - I got in at 50% PB - did you then pump it down as profits ran - not sure what pump it down really means - thinkin' of FTI's horrible muscular women - useful to have his analogies they really work - what a man.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
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