Trading the 'FAKE or BREAK'

Hi Kraven...
it seems you have a very good method of trading, anyway I struggle to understandall the details...
can you explain better how you define your entries? I see in the firs post there is no more the explanation...
Thank you

Hi Chris, if you go to #post 92 or go to the 'paper clip' at the top and click on that. It's the word doc. That will give you a run down on the basic method. I've added extra bit's, like partial profit taking, to the thread as I've went so you may want to go through the thread (it's not that long). Any questions just ask.

It looks like i've been stopped on some of my trades
UC hit BE
EJ hit modified SL for +129

the pic shows the GJ trade still in play and the last few trades. probably the last time i show my trade results. I only show them to back up what i'm saying but i've done that enough.


I was looking at the EA and remembering what i was saying yesterday about waiting for some of the fake-outs to make LH or HL. It's keeping me out of this, we will see? Same with the EG. looks like EU, AU, EG, NU, AN, EA are consolidating somewhat.

this is my third attempt to post today. bloody internet!!

anyway, another goood week busy day at the markets. China and Euro news is always good to stir the pot. Beauty is most have went with trend..

the good news

I sold EG at 7986 fakey, a bit of a LH made me put in a pending before all the news. About +75 up, i'm not to lucky with this pair so i'll take some profit at close.

I also got into the nice EU short on Fakey, wasn't to sure so lowered lot size (I closed this at +150 after pic taken)



Sold NU on a whim at 7900, made a LH after DT (i hope)

Small buy on breaky on AN above 1.1000. lot of clutter until 1.110 but if it pushes through i can see 1.1250 (it's consolidated in a large trading zone)

AJ trying to break out

Other trades doing ok. Glad my stop was at BE on UC yesterday.


Now the Bad.....

Look at the EA trade i was going to take in last post, but waited to see if it would make a LH...have a look at it now...some 270 pips later...cant win em all

""I sold EG at 7986 fakey, a bit of a LH made me put in a pending before all the news. About +75 up, i'm not to lucky with this pair so i'll take some profit at close.""

I just closed this for +82.

just placed a few pending orders, then i realized Japan holiday. probably a slow night.

quick post of current trades and how they are going....

Interesting thread !!!


Still at the 4th page .....

Nice thread. Subscribing.

Thanks Guys. I'm surprised more don't trade like this. It's simple, fairly stress free, makes sense (trading with medium/long term trend, trading pullbacks (fakeys) and breakouts (breakys) and most of the time offers good R:R and most importantly works!

trades from yesterday......



i decided to take some profits off some of those trades after pic was takens: +100 pips on AU and +100 on NU

Just seen the US consumer confidence figures. very mixed, not enough to unsettle market (which is good) as it should continue with the trend

we've had a breaky on AU so i've placed a pending at 8515
also a pending sell breaky on NU at 7790 just became active

keep eye on AN for possible fakey soon
Euro against Aussie (EA) is going mad at the moment (up and down 400 pips in a couple of days) looking for fakey, pending sell at 4578

AU and NU pending trades activated, hoping for good US data today. will be watching closely
Sold EA at 1.4584 but got stopped out for -40, just re-entered sell at 1.4642
.....just bought the AJ on a bounce off RN100 and 20ma for a short term trade

AN made a big statement by continuing downwards breaking major support, still a chance of a fakey though.

seems to be some weakening in the $. is this some insider knowledge before unemployment, durable goods and home sales?????

I sensed the US Data would be worse then expected the way the dollar started to weaken. so i protected a few of my entries

got out of my NU for a loss of -40. need to be wary of the aussie at NZ at the moment, lot of weakening one week then strength the next. It appears the AN has changed from its medium uptrend to continue the more long term down trend, only time will tell (need to see a LH).

jumped out of quick AJ trade for +30

just a quick heads up. If anyone follows cycles in forex they will know November is a sell month on AU (happened), first 2 weeks in November GU is a sell (happened), the last 3 weeks in November UJ is a buy (happening), UC is a buy the first 2 weeks (bit mixed)

Now December is a round the corner look out for strong buy on AU, EU, Chf (and to some smaller extent Gbp)...this has to be some amazing turn around in the aussie for this to happen

looks like i bailed on my AJ bounce off 100RN and 20ma a bit early.

GJ close to a breakout, 3rd attempt to get above 186.0......up +436 pips on this from earlier trade. also looking at a mini Breaky on EJ..........will see if it breaks and pulls back to pick entries

I think that everybody would like to trade like you but I think that is not as easy as you say, you have a very well trained eye, you know much more than a Support and Resistence lines, breaks or fakes but I just say thanks for sharing and for showing us a profitable way to trade.

If you continue sharing your trades I promise to continue working hard to understand and to trade your way.

One of those days I´ll post a possible trade with your strategy and if you can I would like to know is it´s a good one

Thanks

thanks for the kind remarks bypassbo, but honestly it's not that hard. you just need to identify a trend on the daily, mark out the last Highs or lows (wicks) for breakys' and the candle close or open (ignore wicks) for fakeys...this is where the 4hr TF is used to fine tune. Sure some are a little trickier and some plain guess work (when congested ) but just avoid these and stick with clear pairs until you get the hand of it.........here's a breakdown below using the US Dollar.
the trend on daily is clearly up, if need be you could use the stacking of the MA's to verify.







hope this helps.

take profit is up to you, could even do an 'equity millipede' if you like.

tks for your instruction, it's quite clear, as i see you use 3 MA, not only one MA20, is it needed ?

Thanks again Kraven .

I will try it again and again

The MA's are 20, 100 and 200 daily. the ma's are multi timeframe so they show the daily ma's on any timeframe. i posted them earliers. act as floating SR.
try it. it's no holy grail, but it all works well.

placed a few orders on gold incase swiss referendum goes through on Sunday
UC breaky buy at 1369. Cad GDP today so be careful.

As I finish this weeks trading I see my UJ trade has been incredibly close to being stopped out at break even a few times however it's now +150 pips
the UC is +60 (above trade)
my AU trades are +130 and +10
EJ is still good at +375

I just bought the US$ (using the pics above) on a breaky. entry at 11374 above close of 1hr candle, tight stop.

the only downside this week was my inability to trade the aussie and kiwi, they cost me a few pips this week.

it looks like traders are starting to price in a Swiss NO vote on gold as it starts to tank. I'm moving my pending orders closer incase they are wrong. 1182, 1191, 1210.5 (kind of random placements to catch a rally in the unlikely yes vote)
I also have a buy pending on G/Chf and a sell pending on Chf/Jpy. May all come to nothing.

thanks for the post and the education you are giving us here.

Pls, i have two question for you

1) what makes you know that you are wrong ,do you wait for the trade to take out your stop loss or how do do it if the trade is not going as you have planned.

2) how do you determine your take profit .

thanks

I decided to bail on $US trade when the 1hr candle turn tailed and went to my entry. i can always get in later.


hi smartearns,

1) like any trader i get it wrong. 70% of the time i set a tight SL of under 50 pips (i'm trading off 4hr and daily). If i'm unsure of a strong trend and the pair has been ranging and choppy then i tend to use a SL under 50 pips. Sometimes on strong trending pairs I trade with a discretionary SL (say 150 pips) the reason being is I'm trading with the trend so i already have this to my advantage, trends are caused for a reason, big players long term buying or selling on fundamentals and news. Even if the trend changes it tends to pull away then pullback before changing direction. this often allows me to get out.
When i trade with a 150 SL if price pulls back past my entry (so im in a loss) and then rallies again to my entry (so i'm positive) i will then tighten my SL to under 50...looking for RN's and MA's or smaller TF SR's to put my stop under.

2) i've discussed a TP idea on another page (post 106). I like a TP 1 and 2. especially if i've entered on a pullback. tp1 is often at the 23 fib using fakey line and breaky line. Tp2 is discretionary, sometimes i just let it run.