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  • #6,001
  • Nov 23, 2014 3:37pm Nov 23, 2014 3:37pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} CG I thot I remembered you posting you were getting interested in butterflies? Well anyway there's a spread for everybody - I have been trying a little bit of everything, with mixed results. I like credit spreads but you have to know how/be ready to manage them right or your losers can wipe out your winners pretty fast. I am drawn to some of the defined risk spreads specifically because I suck at trade management. the latter mostly because I am working during market hours... I like calendars and I am always looking for opps to get in those...
Yes looked into butterflies and still am doing them on a small scale and GDX will move but not like the way if it was priced at $40 or so because then we see 4%plus moves. While GDX is below $25 best we see is a 2%
  • #6,002
  • Nov 23, 2014 3:39pm Nov 23, 2014 3:39pm
Also I read somewhere steer away from shorting butterflies and broken wing ones unless you have serious capital
  • #6,003
  • Nov 23, 2014 6:39pm Nov 23, 2014 6:39pm
Do any of you use customized or canned trading dashboards? There are some out there for forex:

http://myforexdashboard.com/product_tour.aspx

I will try to make my own that runs in Excel. What I have in mind is a dashboard that sets up a page for each trade that I am actively in. The page would have

1) a link to a realtime chart for the underlying, chart to include volume, IVR, etc; a separate chart(s) could track the options themselves in realtime
2) a link to a trade analyzer that tracks P/L for the trade in real time, graphically and just in $ values
3) A set of windows for data entry and narrative. Should be a box showing the initial conditions at trade initiation - what was the ul price, store a screenshot, i.v. and IVR, etc, and notes justifying trade initiation. Another window outlining trade management milestones: what is the plan for managing the trade under all scenarios?
4) Each account should own its set of dashboards and there needs to be a detailed report for trading performance for each account that links to data in each trade dashboard, updated in realtime....

I'd love to find software that was customizable that covered this, not sure if it exists. Possibly I will be able to customize ToS to some extent to give me what I need...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,004
  • Nov 23, 2014 6:40pm Nov 23, 2014 6:40pm
T.F. can you look into a put calender on FB please that can give >5 times in return, it failed again to close above 74$ on Friday. I'm looking into a butterfly that could yield the same, I like the two strategies to compare. Below $70 is my target.
Thanks
  • #6,005
  • Nov 23, 2014 7:02pm Nov 23, 2014 7:02pm
Here are a couple. 5x is a tall order. I'll say more later, gotta go to the gym...


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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,006
  • Nov 23, 2014 9:34pm Nov 23, 2014 9:34pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
T.F. can you look into a put calender on FB please that can give >5 times in return, it failed again to close above 74$ on Friday. I'm looking into a butterfly that could yield the same, I like the two strategies to compare. Below $70 is my target. Thanks
have not found a calendar that will get ya 5x yet. The otm put vertical spread below returns $2.05 on a risk of $0.45 IF FB will drop to $63 by Jan expiry...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,007
  • Nov 23, 2014 10:07pm Nov 23, 2014 10:07pm
http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/23/inve...id=mkt_SF_news

OPEC meeting this week offers a binary event. If they don't cut production, the price of oil and related stocks will turn lower..
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,008
  • Nov 24, 2014 8:28am Nov 24, 2014 8:28am
Quoting The Fool
http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/23/inve...id=mkt_SF_news OPEC meeting this week offers a binary event. If they don't cut production, the price of oil and related stocks will turn lower..
Lots of the oil patch stocks have been beat down, could rebound fast on news that OPEC will cut production.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,009
  • Edited 9:04am Nov 24, 2014 8:50am | Edited 9:04am
a bet gold will fall back, diag entered for just comm cost
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,010
  • Nov 24, 2014 9:33am Nov 24, 2014 9:33am
Quoting Cecil Gee
........... For me I'm a gamma player so I'm looking at nasdaq stocks with large one day movements. I should take the time to learn more about spreads. The only one I like to discuss are strangle shorts at earnings season
I must say that selling premium in general is very boring, and you have to be patient and wait. But, time decay is very powerful force and those trades do have a very high POP. ER's plays on the other hand are very quick, IF you don't have to adjust position... Here is what I think.

Short strangles are the most effective way to play ER's that I found so far - IMO. I play them very wide, so even if underlying breaks market makers estimated move, I will make money on them. On last of plays - GME, TGT, CSIQ - all 3 stocks breached their estimated move during the day... but I played them very wide and closed position right at open. On those you could made money with buying narrow strangle before earnings, but on BIDU and TSLA, you could only lose with that. IV crush is just enormous, especially if you play ER's with weekly options.

And, it is a good strategy to exploit IVR boost... Like this on BABA:
Quoting StrayDog
I am in above short strangle Dec 100/135 for $2.07 credit. Entered position when BABA traded around $114.90.
That was BABA short strangle from Nov 14, with 36 DTE - I entered when IVR was 65... Now, today - only 10 days later, BABA around $112, IVR 36... and that short strangle is now $0.98... From $2.07 to $0.98 in 10 days. Less than 1/3 of total life time of those options. And cherry on top of that, margin req is about $1,200.

In order to make them more margin friendly, and risk defined, you can always buy cheap protective wings and make a very wide Iron Condor. Like 160/175 + 275/290 for TSLA, instead of 175/275 short strangle. margin req will drop from $2,500+ to $1,500. Same with short puts - if the stock is pricey, and margin too big, buy way OTM put... and you have a synthetic short put.

AND CHOOSE very wisely on what stocks you apply this... look at gap down on GPRO. They will have secondary offering... (not to mention the expiration of lock up period around Christmas... it's going to be TWTR style IMO) Unless you don't know what to do with the stock should you get assigned - don't do it.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,011
  • Nov 24, 2014 10:01am Nov 24, 2014 10:01am
Quoting The Fool
Do any of you use customized or canned trading dashboards? There are some out there for forex: http://myforexdashboard.com/product_tour.aspx I will try to make my own that runs in Excel. .......
Nope... I have archive of everything I do, screenshot of every trade - when I enter them, and I manually insert data in Excel sheet, with these columns:

Underlying Trade Debit Credit Entry Close Closed P/L Comment

So, what is underlying, what type of trade, what debit paid / credit received, dates of entry/close, closed @ what price, P/L goes when position is closed... Comment - i start to fill immediately, like: "trade entered when u/l was $45.70 and IVR 55, options with 26 DTE..." and fill the rest when position is closed, and beyond - how it looks 5-10 days later, for example...

Pretty basic, but useful, you can get good takeaways just for looking at your own past trades... conditions, etc. Then you can see why something got wrong or good, what could you do better, how trade is looking now.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,012
  • Nov 24, 2014 1:30pm Nov 24, 2014 1:30pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote}... Pretty basic, but useful, you can get good takeaways just for looking at your own past trades... conditions, etc. Then you can see why something got wrong or good, what could you do better, how trade is looking now.
Yup I just have notebooks, mechanical pencil. Nothing wrong with that, but need to upgrade to 21st century, would be easier to have charts for ul and the options, P/L charts, all kinds of running narrative, and just screenshot it regularly to archive. Will be working on that in December.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,013
  • Nov 24, 2014 2:23pm Nov 24, 2014 2:23pm
Whaddup, StrayDog? Earnings season's played out, whatcha gonna do now?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,014
  • Nov 24, 2014 2:25pm Nov 24, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yup I just have notebooks, mechanical pencil. Nothing wrong with that, but need to upgrade to 21st century, would be easier to have charts for ul and the options, P/L charts, all kinds of running narrative, and just screenshot it regularly to archive. Will be working on that in December.
Yes, that would be nice...

I looked at PANW, QIHU and WDAY for some ER's plays - short strangles (have no directional bias on any of those stocks), but I just write them down, since I will be out almost entire day tomorrow... Some things to do came up, I have to be in some meeting half an hour after open - in the middle of this short week . So, I will skip all of those, that would be just simple 1 SD short strangles with weeklies, and QIHU would be my favourite, the best margin / credit.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,015
  • Nov 24, 2014 3:07pm Nov 24, 2014 3:07pm
Quoting The Fool
a bet gold will fall back, diag entered for just comm cost {image}
I will try to get in another GLD diag, similar to the above but with calls, for near null debit, to try to catch an upside gold move in December...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,016
  • Nov 24, 2014 6:24pm Nov 24, 2014 6:24pm
Quoting The Fool
http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/23/inve...id=mkt_SF_news OPEC meeting this week offers a binary event. If they don't cut production, the price of oil and related stocks will turn lower..
It's a bfd.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...tml?cmpid=yhoo
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,017
  • Edited 10:59pm Nov 24, 2014 9:41pm | Edited 10:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I will try to get in another GLD diag, similar to the above but with calls, for near null debit, to try to catch an upside gold move in December...
here's the GLD double diagonal I have in mind, I just need to do the call side tomorrow (I like these cuz they look like a kitty)...

Watch the vid to run thru the daily P/L from today til expiry. Notice that there are some lines in the sand there at $108.50 and $120.50. Probably best to close a leg if it gets out there, and if it gets out there too fast you will lose some money. Ideally, GLD stays inside the b/e's and settles near one of the max profit bulges at expiry. pretty good profit range in there, about +/- $60 on gold....

http://screencast.com/t/rzlEwkRDe
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,018
  • Nov 24, 2014 10:04pm Nov 24, 2014 10:04pm
Day 27 of super ultra mega gabbagoo!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/could-...103000201.html
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,019
  • Nov 24, 2014 10:55pm Nov 24, 2014 10:55pm
http://news.yahoo.com/saudi-sights-s...030251315.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraul...ring_proppants

So the Saudis want to muscle out the N. American frackers and tar-sands producers? Or are they putting the squeeze on Iran and Russia? Both? Who knows...? If they succeed in taking the oil price down towards $60 or lower, it will accomplish the first task, with the added consequence of squelching the economic boom that has come to various parts of N. America, because the latter has been based largely on hydrocarbon extraction.

I have kicked around several ports on the west coast and seen giant buildings literally full of bags of fracking sand ("proppant') and been told that that single product accounts for half or more of the throughput at those ports. Seen new steel pipe manufacturing plants planned and built, almost all product heading for the oil fields.

But hey, I'm just a lowly vulture, and I smell a short.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,020
  • Nov 25, 2014 11:51am Nov 25, 2014 11:51am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} here's the GLD double diagonal I have in mind, I just need to do the call side tomorrow (I like these cuz they look like a kitty)...
I am in this trade, just as shown in the double daigonal P/L screenshot above. Just need gold to make a move in Dec, but not too much a move....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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