Diversified Trend Trading Approach

.....and all trends come to an end. Farewell EURJPY....it was nice knowing you :-(







My next post will be a weekly wrapup on the trade status of the portfolio.....and then I will get into that which can only be utterred in orcish tongue (tongue in cheek) ........LOSSES

Below is a visual representation of the trade status of the portfolio I watch. Trade details of active trades on this portfolio have already been discussed previously.




Those instruments that are in Watch and Wait status are as follows:

1. AUDUSD - Horizontal price movement on D1 within a congestion zone with no current signs of a trend emerging;
2. EURUSD - Horizontal price movement on D1 within a congestion zone with no current signs of a trend emerging;
3. EURJPY - This pair has enjoyed an excellent bull run and represents the most recent trade exited. Temporarily this lies in watch and wait until confirmation on D1 of trend continuance or reversal;
4. EURUSD - Appears to almost be in a stage of trend breakdown and will jump on board with a short if price breaches 1.2317. This will be a further bite at this short cherry which previously was profitable (with a short trend commencing 01 Jul 2014 on D1) so we may be coming to the exhaustion phases of this trend. As a result I will be upping the risk-anti to get in and out quickly on this one if a breach of 1.2317 occurs, with a standard deviation channel that commences from 15 Oct 2014. What this achieves is to keep the channel short, narrow and steep therefore increasing my position size (while still keeping risk of 0.5%) but demanding a higher slope of trend to have a quick stab at any favourable price movement;
5. EURCAD - I was closely looking at this for a short at 10.00 GMT +1 last night but preferred the short opportunity provided by USDCAD (due to a better D1 price pattern) at the same time last night, hence deferred on entering this trend opportunity for a later date. Will consider a short opportunity if a breach of 1.3825 occurs with a nice long standard deviation channel commencing 8 Aug 2014 on D1 to reduce risk exposure and allow for more room to breathe on this opportunity;
6. NIKKEI - After an excellent bull run this index, the Nikkei appears to be taking a breather in a narrow congestion channel. If the trend continues I may be jumping on a ride of this one following breakout confirmation at 17855. The bull trend commencing 16 Oct 2014 on D1 has offerred excellent trend trading opportunies;
7. USDCHF - This was showing signs on D1 of a possible short opportunity until the sharp reversal yesterday. It will remain in watch and wait mode until clear signs of a sustainable trend emerges which may be some time;
8. AUDCAD - Signs of a short trend are emerging on D1 but will wait for further confirmation;
9. XAUUSD (Spot Gold) - This is shaping up for a long opportunity with a good long trend beginning to emerge from a low of 7 Nov 2014. Will consider entry long following confirmation at about 1.224 (or maybe a bit earlier);
10. NZDUSD - Bah humbug....this was shaping up for a good long trend opportunity..... but the last 4 days on D1 reflect strong resistance at around 0.79. Watch and wait until clear trend emerges.
11. XAGUSD (Spot Silver) - As per XAUUSD but needs further time for long trend confirmation on D1;
12. NZDCAD - Watch and wait. May be a short trend opportunity emerging on D1 but a long way to go before I am convinced;
13. GBPUSD - Horizontal price movement on D1 within a congestion zone with no current signs of a trend emerging.

That wraps up those instruments on watch and wait mode.

My next post will discuss losses, position sizing and risk management.

This strategy is all about Trading Sustainability for those seeking to trade for a living. To be clear, to trade for a living imposes significant further risk with respect to many alternative trading strategies seeking higher risk-reward (R:R). Remove the security offerred by steady cashflow from an alternative source and this game reaches a new level.

As we all know, for those that use trading to supplement their income, they can afford to be far more aggressive given that their livelihoods don't depend on it. For many aspiring traders, those alternative strategies are for you....but for those looking for a system designed to limit drawdowns, preserve capital and possibly offer a *fairly* regular cashflow, different factors need to be considered in the strategy to achieve this.

Key to this strategy are the following:

1. Sufficient trading capital - Before embarking on your quest for financial independence, be realistic with your capital requirements. Currently as this strategy now stands I would not attempt to consider leaving a primary cashflow source without at least $200K trading capital available. Remember that this strategy has only been tested across a 2 year timeframe and NEVER assume that this represents an accurate forceast of what you may achieve.....This does not stop you trading this strategy however as you can set an objective to build your capital base using this strategy while still drawing on your primary income....but you may need a team of traders to do this to allow for 24/5 trading coverage. I have included as an attachment trade profit results assuming $200K trade capital (no account compounding). Average monthly income is approximately $13K with 0.5% risk but this is still quite lumpy. Closely review this spreadsheet (and the Notes) as you can see why a diversified trading approach is necessary. Conditional formatting (in red) highlights those instruments that traded at a loss for a monthly period. Once this is done, look at your current financial sitiation and determine whether this meets your needs. From this you will be able to get an indication of the trading capital you may require to 'Trade for a Living'.
2. Minimising Drawdowns - This is where a diversified trend trading strategy can shine provided you are merciless in your risk management approach. The whole intent of the original strategy was to address this factor (hence the diversification and tight risk allowance of 0.5%) so obviously profit potential has been sacrificed to achieve this aim. Capital preservation is what allows us to fight another day, let's you sleep peacefully (never at night as a trader in AUS unfortunately) and keep the family off our backs. Not to boast...but I am going to do it anyway........the current strategy for the past 2 years has achieved a drawdown of <1.00% with the most losing consectutive trades = 5.....not that this can be guaranteed to continue,as it won't, but the probabilities are shaping up to suggest that this strategy is quite robust with capital management. As an aside, the max consecttive winning trades = 13.
3. A sound System Quality Number (SQN).........for the analytical types amongst you who like to assess system performance using Van Tharpe's SQN, the current strategy with a sample size of 442 trades is trading in the stratosphere. I won't release this figure at the moment as it appears extraordinary and I need an external independent audit obtained to verify which I might do later with some interested folk here if they are interested in number crunching.
4. A favourable Win/Loss Ratio - Previous versions of this strategy had lower W:L ratio's (about 50%) but with more outstanding profit returns, but my choice has been to adjust the strategy with the D1 filter to improve the W:L ratio which has come at a cost..however given my scaredy cat nature, need for a regular dribble of income and miserly acceptance of risk.....I am happier this way. The result is a current Win ratio of 65.8%. I am aware of the amazing trading conditions for trend traders over the past 4 months so am not holding my breath that this will be sustained in the long term....however I do like a slight probability edge in my trading. Anything skyward of 50% I am happy with provided trade expectancy ratios can deliver.
5. The Standard Deviation Channel - From a risk management perspective, this tool has been a godsend to me. Many trading strategies simply focus on trade entries and trade exists and do not worry about what is between. The Standard deviation Channel however is a device that ensures the trade stays on track in a trend at all phases of the trade from entry to exit. It also expands and contracts to reflect volatility in the market and manages position sizes on entry. Furthermore your maximum loss of 0.5% is only ever obtained if there is a market reversal immediately within the bar of entry. Yes this can happen by the way..but it is a rare event. Given that your exit is defined by the standard deviation channel itself which has a slope commensurate with the current trend, as each bar (H1) elapses your stop is naturally ratcheted up (like a trailing stop) in line with the trend movement. What this means is that time in trend is your friend. Yes, it takes some time before a breakeven position is reached but the condition of breakeven is not an arbitrary decision by you and is dependent of the speed, slope and direction of the trend. Furthermore the standard deviation channel is based on price history and as such is an excellent tool to use to evaluate when a trend ends and it's time to close the trade.
6. The 40 Period Donchian - the longer period Donchian is a great tool if you wish to visually identify when you are in free blue sky un-restricted by any short term support/resistance barriers. Of course they are just a visual tool to assist as provided you can read a primary trend you can easily determine when a prior low or prior high has been breached without them but for a clutterred trading screen, they are a great visual tool to assist. I always ensure on H1 that the Donchian has been breached before entering which ensures I have had at least 40 periods (hours) where price has not previously moved into this territory. Also, but not always, a breach of the Donchian is typically accompanied by increased price momentum so setting pending orders directly above a Donchian Channel on H1 (for a long) or below the Donchian (for a short) is a perfectly valid technique. They are a very handy breakout tool. I also use them on the D1 and consider them when placing my pending trade points for execution consideration but not religiously on the D1 timeframe. By having the longer term 40 period Donchian channel stare you in the face on both the D1 and H1 timeframes, it forces you to consider support and resistance before committing to a trend trade.

Now remember that while appearing impressive,this strategy has only been tested across 24 instruments in the last 2 years and this is no guarantee that it will stand the test of time....however it certainly is looking good at the moment. Where I think it still needs work is in removing discretion on the D1 trend recognition aspect. Once this is achieved then given the mechanics of the H1 entry and trade management till close I would also like to assume that it has the potential for an EA to replicate these achievements.....but....and this is a big but.....the entire logic of this approach must be reflected in the EA preferably using the same mechanisms without programmatic workarounds and the addition of complex proxy indicators that attempt to achieve the same result......that is a work in progress and I am doubtful of the end-result. Furthermore I am not a fan of optimisation at all. It is the trade logic that is essential, not the optimised variables. In hindsight that may be a bit of an unfair statement as I actually do optimise strategies, but not by curve fitting. My amendments to strategy performance relate to risk management decisions as opposed to profit performance alone.

If a robust EA that meets the logic and integrity of the strategy can be achieved, this will also be a godsend in being able to more comprehensively backtest the strategy. Furthermore it will also allow us to focus on some potential additional filters such as Hanover's relative strength EA's and instrument correlation filters (provided we have a commensurate uplift in instruments to trade to keep cashflow trickling)

....that's it for a while now guys with the in depth review.

I will leave this post now up for discussion and pop in and participate for a while.

Happy trading.

Regards

Copernicus :-))

I will keep my fingers (and toes) crossed :-)

Copernicus

Many thanks for all the work in making this clear for us. Greatly appreciated.

I am struggling a little bit to get my Std Dev Channel(std dev = 1.0) to look the same as yours on the charts. For example, my EURJPY channel would still have us in the trade. Any thoughts/advice on how to use this tool effectively?

Cheers

Hi pakeha

Can you please provide an example of your chart in question and we will go from there where I attempt to replicate what you have done in examples to troubleshoot.

I have a live MT4 account as well as the IG markets chart platform I use which we can compare between if we find problems between brokers quotes.

Regards

PS I think I know what your problem is. Set the standard dev channel to 0.5 width as it had exceeded 2.5R profit *crosses fingers that this is the problem*. While a nice wide channel gives the trend room to breathe, when significant profit builds up in trend it leaves too much on the table for those other pesky traders that you want to steal from *sniggers*

The following chart should explain it.




Also below I have included a chart that features all the standard deviation redraws that need to occur over the course of the trend. Remember to redraw on a long trade every time a new high is reached. Pink represents 1.0 std dev channel and light green represents 0.5 std dev channel that you apply when you get to 2.5R profit and beyond. Obviously it clutters up the chart so I only include the current redraw on the chart to keep things clean as the past does not matter. I hope this helps and does not confuse the issue.



PPS Everyone hates an indicator that automatically repaints on the current bar (thinks of experiences using COG indicator....*groans*). To avoid this and ensure that you control the redraw process ensure you never.....and I repeat never.....set the standard deviation channel to touch the current live bar. Always redraw to the PRIOR bar. That means on a new high, wait until the bar is over and then redraw to that bar.

C :-)

Good work, deep systematic analysis, this is how we treat the trading business, being in my 11 trend following year I can relate to all that you are posting, keep up the good work, don't stop, interested and subscribed.

Best,
B.R.

P.S. did u caught the UCAD retest.

Many thanks for your words of support bassramy. It's great to have an experienced trend trader on board.

Unfortunately I committed to USDCAD too late in execution and did not wait till the retest. Your last post came to me too late to make me realise I have a lot to be desired in the details of the execution itself. This is something I need to work on and your advice on this is going to be greatly appreciated. I tend to be a breakout trader on the H1 as opposed to a more patient wait and retest trader when I make my mind up on the D1 timeframe. It is probably a nerves issue which results from a painful trading history in the past.........anyway, great to have you on board and I look very much forward to your contributions to improve this strategy as it currently stands.

....and yes if you are thinking that I should consider executing a trade immediately following a retracement in the primary trend as opposed to the breakout technique I use, then perhaps this is something I need to investigate and particpants in this thread can work with me on. It certainly would enable an increased position size to take further advantage of the trend movements but I need to be convinced of this with comparable backtests...*groans*

Regards

C :-)

Thanks for the detailed explanation. I found the channel on MT4 (I never used Std. Dev. Channel) and downloaded Donchian indis from your post, but the problem is I don't see any breakouts on H1, because Donchian indicator always follow the high and low of the price bars. I have attached USDCAD H1 chart I have with 40period Donchian on it, and as you can see upper boundary of Donchian follows highs (price) and lower boundary of Donchian follows lows (price). As a result, I see no Donchian Breakout.
Any comments?

EDIT: OR did you mean Donchian will break your green lines up for long and down for short trades?

Regards,
Blackeagle

A Donchian Channel as you have discussed simply traces the highest high (blue line) or lowest low (pink line) of price action in the period range we have selected (40 bars). When we are looking for long opportunities, we focus on the blue line for a step up. When we are looking for short opportunities we are looking at the red line for a step down.

A breakout occurs when this horizontal line of the lowest low (for shorts) or highest high (for longs) is breached with a step up or step down. The chart below shows the donchian breakouts that have occurred over the course of the short trend on H1 for USDCAD. When the channel is breached, it signifies that price movement is making new lows or highs for the trend you are on.

I complained last night that I was too late on entry as I missed the breakout that I have labelled on the chart below. It's not a big issue, it is just that in accordance with the rules of this strategy, it is a lashing offence....*gulp*. Note that by the time I chose to trade a short using the D1 filter, all the previous Donchian breakouts that I have labelled on this short trade were over. I arrived on the scene (after a snack and a coffee.....and a ciggie) after the last breakout. A problem that is not faced by an EA and is strictly a human condition.

Edit. To clear things up on the Donchian I have edited the chart to reflect those breakouts that I am interested in labelled with a tick. In understanding Donchian channels, when in a trend you need to appreciate that there is a primary trend and lots of secondary trends within the primary timeframe. The Donchian step downs I have labelled with a cross reflect breakouts of secondary (minor) trends. In trading the primary trend I am only interested in lower lows hence be careful in identifying the correct Donchian breakout to trade.



I hope this makes sense. :-))

C

PPS A tip for this strategy.........Have a close look at the chart above. Based on the standard deviation channel width you would find that trade execution on any of the prior Donchian breakdowns would have been losers. This is where the standard deviation channel and the D1 filter comes into play. With fairly volatile swings in this trend you do not want to enter early as you need time for more data to accumulate so the standard deviation channel naturally widens over time to encompass the majority of price movements (closes) of these volatile conditions 68% on 1.0 std dev. That is why it pays to use D1 as your entry filter to avoid entering these type of trends early. It is also wise in conditions such as these to extend your standard deviation channel as far back as you can to the high (in this instance) of the primary trend. I am fairly confident with the trade execution however in theory this would not be the best trend to trade due to volatility in prior price history on this trend.........all said in hindsight of course......time for further lashings!!!!!!!!

Yes it makes sense now. Thanks again for the prompt answer. One thing to clear. You said a breakout occurs when horizontal line of the lowest low is breached with a step down. Re. the very first cross you put on the chart (the one with the very long down bar on 7/11), when that bar closed, the horizontal Donchian between 6/11 and 7/11 was breached with a step down, so based on your above definition, it should be the primary trend and a tick instead of a cross, am I correct?

Regards,
Blackeagle

Hi Blackeagle

Have a very close look at the chart if you can enlarge it. The very first cross actually has a little step up on the red line immediately prior to the breach. It's pretty hard to see but enough for me to avoid it........and remember you will never according to this strategy at least be able to obtain such an early entry as this was right at the commencement of the primary short trend......but I think you get the picture. :-)

I saw that little step up but I had no idea it had a significance (Can you please clarify its significance?). You said a breakout of the horizontal line of the lowest low needs to be breached. According to this rule, the horizontal line of the lowest low started at the beginning of Nov 6 (No. 1 on my chart) and the long bar you put cross on caused Donchian to breach that horizontal line of the lowest low. If you put a cross on that one, then, I believe the tick after the second cross (on Nov. 12, No. 2 on my chart) should be a cross, too.

Please have a look at my attached chart. You put cross on No. 1 arrow but you put a tick on No.2 arrow on your chart. For me, based on your definitions, these two situations are identical. Donchian stepped up first and then broke down the horizontal line of the lowest low (assuming my horizontal line of the lowest low understanding is correct, I labelled them, please correct me if I am wrong).

I understand that Daily filter will prevent us entering this early, but can you please further elaborate how to identify the correct Donchian breakout (primary trends) considering the above identical situations (No 1 and and No 2 on my chart) and/or with a different chart example.

I really appreciate your time.

Regards,
Blackeagle

Great illustration Blackeagle. I was being a strategy nazi in obeying the principle that I would only consider strict step downs such as those that occurred after 1 and before 2 in your examples. What is occurring at 1 is a trend reversal effect where the step up following the horizontal line you have indicated at 1 is signifying the end of the previous bull phase (well that is my interpretation at least). I actually have no problem in your interpretation however as 1. could be the official beginning of the trend or the end of the prior bull trend...but for an EA programmer this would prove an obstacle to consider. Given this uncertainty at the early stage of trend formation, I tend to avoid these areas anyway.

Your illustration of point 2 is also correct but I only tend to look at the prior 40 bar period and focus on the horizontal lines and if a clean step down occurs. I actually see a step up occurring at this point and my attention is not focussed on these points in the heat of trading. The reality is however is that your purple line at 2 actually represents an excellent further breakdown of the primary trend. I should therefore pay more attention.

Don't get too hung up with Donchians as they are only a visual tool. You can disregard them totally if you simply can identify the primary trend on the fly and determine when the lowest lows in a short or highest highs in a long are breached. This technically is what we are after so you are perfectly correct and I have learnt something from you. :-)

PS to also assist in this when using the Daily Chart in watch and wait mode you will note that I always place a green dotted line above the primary D1 trend (high or low) to ensure that when I revert to H1 for entry I know that I will be dealing with a Donchian breakout on H1 and avoid those problematic areas you have identified.

Copernicus

Regarding Post 46. Thanks for the explanation - helped a lot. Yes for the EJ chart, changing the SD to 0.5 did the trick. interestingly, I have never used the SD tool in MT4 before (lol,I have used every other one) so need to play around with it a bit. I know it is a lot of effort, but your charts are great.

That's great to hear pakeha.

A similar principle is applied to Bollinger Bands and the COG indicator but when you become familiar with this indicator, it has considerable power and extracts significant important information relating to the power of the trend, it's volatility and in particular it's linear regression.

The more I use it the more I appreciate it. It is also an excellent tool to use if your are a range trader as it is effectively employed in both defining congestion channels (horizontal range bound movements) which is how most TA's use it. I actually prefer it however for defining trends as it sets inclined support and resistance levels as trend channels to give confidence that you are remaining in trend and also important volatility information. Also within that trend it provides information to assist in defining pullback levels if you want to trade a trend that way.

Have a play around with different settings. For example 1.00 std dev setting represents 68% of all closes in the data set, 2.00 std dev's represents 95% etc, etc, etc. When you use 1.00 std deviations and sometimes 0.5 settings you will frequently notice that it defines an excellent linear resistance trend of the trend and price often gets to or close to this line and bounces along it for a considerable period of time before either breaching or getting new wind to continue with the current trend. Note, I have thought that to keep clear of this tendency to avoid early exit from continuing trends that I should tweak the setting to say 1.1 std deviations and 0.6 std deviations when deep in profit .....but I may just be reading tea leaves here and I haven't backtested the result. When you get good results you tend to adopt the 'if it's not broke.....' mentality, but perhaps this should be considered for future adaptations. I am vary wary of employing 'magical lines of resistance and support such as 'The Power of 9' etc.etc. and to be honest given by strong science background (hence the avatar I use) anything with a sniff of mysticism or 'woo' about it throws me a wobbly, but that's just me and I cannot dispute great trading results from some of those traders who employ those methods. I just like clear cut and definitive explanations for the why's, not some planetary alignment or quanutum mechanical explanation, or 'The Secret'......*groans*

Case in point 1 below. As detailed before I closed EURJPY when it touched the channel at 0.5 std dev's. Note the resistance effect of that channel after the trade was closed (highlighted in the ellipse)....now is this tea leaf reading or just post exit dissonance?......I will let you guys be the judge. I will provide further examples as I come across them but it is a fairly frequent occurrence and sometimes these resistance patterns can extend for considerable periods of time. Knowing my luck, as soon as I turn to a 0.6 std dev to avoid this, I will probably find the market sniffing this out as well....or maybe I am just paranoid. I never used to be like that. It's the market I tells ya.....ba humbug /tic *puts on alfoil hat*



The drawing of the channel does take some time getting used to but when you are practiced in it, it's a very quick 'click and extend' process. Just a helpful hint, you can commence the standard deviation from any point on a bar and then extend it over future bars if you need to do this quickly. It only considers the close of the bar but you do not need to pinpont the actual close. Anywhere on the bar will do the trick.

Regards

C :-)

Copernicus

I have gone through 5 examples now and traced the trend over time (higher highs or lower lows), including the EJ and UJ examples you provided. So I now feel like I have the basics down, and am now ready for the nuances .

Interestingly, I entered a trade on the UJ pair right after the news on Oct 31 (I trade fundamentals/sentiment/S/R entry) and captured 200 pips. While I did enter again on this pair and got some more pips, I am like many traders who wished they had captured a lot more of the move (give the enormity of the news), which at my entry would have been over 700 pips currently (and at your entry is over 900 pips).

Nice approach. Thanks again

Thanks pakeha

The approach seems to give good room to breathe for a trend but there will be times where you rue the day and wish you had drawn trendlines in the traditional manner to manage the trade...but *most* of the time it is generous.

Interesting to hear you trade fundamentals as my bias in QA and towards logic obviously favours your approach. The intent of the longer timeframe used in this approach is to ensure (or maximise the probability) that fundamentals are driving the trend as opposed to institutional activity.

USDJPY appears to be losing puff on my approach but it has been an exceptional trade. I can't yet hear the fat lady sing though and I am committed to the trade so time will tell.

There are some nuances as you suggest such as catching a trend resurgence when you are re-entering on a 2nd or 3rd approach but as time unfolds on this thread we will discuss in detail these examples. The key thing to keep in your mind is the 'logic' of what you are doing with respect to how much room to breathe you are prepared to give a trend and your associated position sizing to manage risk. This logic is embedded in this standard deviation channel so it helps to become really familiar with the information it is telling you.

If you are analytical, I have attached my detailed spreadsheet that I use to track system performance. Take time in reviewing the different sheets as it gives valuable information to absorb about the merits of the strategy. Many will think this is paralysis by analysis but I use a database to capture trade details and dump into the spreadsheet for automatic update so it only takes a jiffy to update.

Key points to consider:

1. Be sceptical of results as they are from backtesting for a year and forward testing from Jan 2014 onwards. They do not represent live trades so I have yet to put this strategy to the Demo test.
2. The total ROI per annum on $200K is based on 0.5% trade risk. While I am a drawdown scaredy cat, the current very low drawdown allows me to comfortably increase my trade risk to 1.0% to double the return. Most traders would call me a sissy but believe me, I have been burnt before and am paranoid about risk management.
3. It obviously appears to good to be true (at least from my perspective) but on the figures supplied it gives more than enough margin of safety for me to accept before I go live on Demo....which is going to be a long time away as I need a team to work with me to allow for 24/5 coverage.
4. Returns do not include current live trades, only closed trades.
5. Disregard the SQN ratio for the moment as it needs validation.

Enjoy :-)

Copernicus

Fundamentals on UJ haven't changed. USD is strong and JPY is very weak (as is EUR). Sentiment changed a bit this week with the USD up move on all pairs getting a bit tired, even with strong US numbers at the end of the week - big guys need to go look for more liquidity to make the JPY pairs move higher. May now start to see the retrace needed to get the re-entry in pairs like USDJPY.

USDCAD fundamentals are interesting. CAD is oil based hence downtrend, but 75 percent of its exports go to the US. So as US expands so will Canada. However what matters at the moment is who will raise rates first and that will be US, not Canada. So a trend reversal here will likely only happen if the price of oil increases markedly thru supply restrictions by the major producers.

Will give the new spreadsheet a look. I had already dissected the first one and then you put up the second which basically dissected what I had already done. .

Thanks for the update on the fundamentals pakeha. It's good to know, and why working in teams with diverse skill sets has significant advantages in this game.

I don't have much room to move unless Monday brings some joy in UJ, otherwise it's likely according to the rules of this approach that I will be closed out. If this happens I will simply re-enter on continuance of trend with a breakout on H1 but miss a small portion of the movement to breakout.....such is life :-(

I will keep my eye out on UC. Thanks for this.

PS Sorry about wasting your time on the spreadsheet. I actually wasn't planning to divulge my analysis....but I can't keep my *.....ggin* mouth shut. It's all out there anyway now so what the hell. I hope it brings joy to some. It's a shame I don't believe in 'karma' but just to keep my bridges open, if I am wrong, there may be some upside for me :-)

Keep in touch.

C