Oktoberfest Nightclub | Page 516 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: Oktoberfest Nightclub
Exit Attachments

Oktoberfest Nightclub

  • #10,301
  • Nov 21, 2014 12:40pm Nov 21, 2014 12:40pm
Well, just came home, sit and checked charts. On EUR pairs i have missed so many pips just from m1 scalping after Draghi trend that my head hurts. Missed probably one of best trading days in past few months. Need to make ice bucket bath and cool down my overheated head from stupidity.

AUD signaling very strong bull signal, it was able to gather all dollar rally loses against other counterparts.

Today it has shown what should QE do to EUR overall when it comes. Moves at least double that. Need to wait now for Jan 1st-5th for central bank conferences updates on calendar, so shorting can be done ahead of it.

Anyways shorts on GU and EU are no brainer in next weeks, staying away from shorting AU as AUD is too strong, CAD is very strong, so is USD so UCAD is pin-pong to come. Very interesting one is gold, on major dollar rally gold was also being able to rally. Certainly there was something bullish happening behind scenes, could it be news of Netherland 122 tones repatriation? Maybe.
I think EU will reach 1.22 before QE will come.
  • #10,302
  • Nov 21, 2014 2:05pm Nov 21, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting janpec1000
Well, just came home, sit and checked charts. On EUR pairs i have missed so many pips just from m1 scalping after Draghi trend that my head hurts. Missed probably one of best trading days in past few months. Need to make ice bucket bath and cool down my overheated head from stupidity. AUD signaling very strong bull signal, it was able to gather all dollar rally loses against other counterparts. Today it has shown what should QE do to EUR overall when it comes. Moves at least double that. Need to wait now for Jan 1st-5th for central bank conferences...
Yup, nice market scan. I am not so sure for Aussie, it has been very bearish recently but shown resilience during the last sessions. Same goes for NZD/USD. If we see a clear break of 0.80 I want to be long here again.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #10,303
  • Nov 21, 2014 2:11pm Nov 21, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Yup, nice market scan. I am not so sure for Aussie, it has been very bearish recently but shown resilience during the last sessions. Same goes for NZD/USD. If we see a clear break of 0.80 I want to be long here again.
Yep thats good rule, Asian currencies rebounded into bullish today. Lets see if it can last, i think it can, and BOJ QE (JPY+AUD+NZD)retracement could happen.
  • #10,304
  • Nov 21, 2014 2:11pm Nov 21, 2014 2:11pm
EURUSD, Long @ 1.2386 (1 Lot / 10-K-Account)
Max. expected Drawdown: 40%
  • #10,305
  • Nov 21, 2014 3:41pm Nov 21, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting infinitus
will the black upsloping channel hold, do we see a retest of big bue? sorry guys, was carried away and did not spent my time with you. Am back now someone with a good EW count here? {image}
For me has jumped the big blue again. For you???
  • #10,306
  • Nov 21, 2014 3:56pm Nov 21, 2014 3:56pm
[quote=janpec1000;7891774]Well, just came home, sit and checked charts. On EUR pairs i have missed so many pips just from m1 scalping after Draghi trend that my head hurts. Missed probably one of best trading days in past few months.

I suppose you mean the meeting of BCE in December. Anyway, the QE is settled IF inflation goals are not achieved. So, high important data on thursday and Friday, next week,with CPI'S in Europe.
  • #10,307
  • Nov 21, 2014 4:03pm Nov 21, 2014 4:03pm
[quote=Lavanda;7892085]
Quoting janpec1000
Well, just came home, sit and checked charts. On EUR pairs i have missed so many pips just from m1 scalping after Draghi trend that my head hurts. Missed probably one of best trading days in past few months. I suppose you mean the meeting of BCE in December. Anyway, the QE is settled IF inflation goals are not achieved. So, high important data on thursday and Friday, next week,with CPI'S in Europe.
Haha no no no. Thats not how fundamental trading in FX works. You cannot predict policies of central banks on their lies. You need facts to do so. I have posted many times year ago that CPI has no value at all on decision of rate cut, increase or QE. And so it was. It is only number to make believe those who are guided, into false.
I havent made 350 pips on April 2013 BOJ QE, and 120 pips on ECB rate cut April 2014, on any lies or fairy tales that came from CBs. If you want to trade fundamentals you need solid ground, and you cant have solid ground with following those that want you to drawn in live sand.
  • #10,308
  • Nov 21, 2014 4:15pm Nov 21, 2014 4:15pm
Quoting janpec1000
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Haha no no no. Thats not how fundamental trading in FX works. You cannot predict policies of central banks on their lies. You need facts to do so. I have posted many times year ago that CPI has no value at all on decision of rate cut, increase or QE. And so it was. It is only number to make believe those who are guided, into false. I havent made 350 pips on April 2013 BOJ QE, and 120 pips on ECB rate cut April 2014, on any lies or fairy tales that came from CBs. If you want to trade fundamentals you need solid ground,
...
Of course, fundamentals are now in favor of one QE in Europe, but sure that we will see movemnents during the next weeks due this news. That's all.
What makes me think, is what can happen if they really announce one QE to boost inflation.
  • #10,309
  • Nov 21, 2014 4:22pm Nov 21, 2014 4:22pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote}{quote} Of course, fundamentals are now in favor of one QE in Europe, but sure that we will see movemnents during the next weeks due this news. That's all. What makes me think, is what can happen if they really announce one QE to boost inflation.
THIS:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro-down-7938567.jpg Size: 144 KB
  • #10,310
  • Nov 21, 2014 5:03pm Nov 21, 2014 5:03pm
Current financial-currency war cannot be summed up with better words than this:
Liberty or death, what we so proudly hail
Once you provoke her, rattling of her tail
Never begins it, never, but once engaged...
Never surrenders, showing the fangs of rage

Don't tread on me

So be it
Threaten no more
To secure peace is to prepare for war
So be it
Settle the score
Touch me again for the words that you'll hear evermore...

Don't tread on me

Love it or live it, she with the deadly bite
Quick is the blue tongue, forked as lighting strike
Shining with brightness, always on surveillance
The eyes, they never close, emblem of vigilance

Don't tread on me

So be it
Threaten no more
To secure peace is to prepare for war
So be it
Settle the score
Touch me again for the words that you'll hear evermore...

Don't tread on me

So be it
Threaten no more
To secure peace is to prepare for war

Liberty or death, what we so proudly hail
Once you provoke her, rattling on her tail

So be it
Threaten no more
To secure peace is to prepare for war
So be it
Settle the score
Touch me again for the words that you'll hear evermore...

Don't tread on me



Dollar, gold, nukes.
  • #10,311
  • Nov 21, 2014 5:33pm Nov 21, 2014 5:33pm
Or to follow more existential way of life. Which one is it. Above song, or bellow one. It is complete divergence. Objectivity, or sensitivity.


We're the day birds
Deciding to fly against the sky
Within our dreams, we all wake up
To kiss the ones who are born to die

We're the greying herds
Hurting each other with our lies
Within our dreams, we all wake up
To kiss the ones who are born...
Born to die
Born to die

The drum fish
They beached themselves in Harakiri
The blackbirds
They fell in thousands from the sky
Their red wings
Streaming down from the higher seas
Deflected by the ground
They crowned the sun

They crowned the sun (They crowned the sun)
They crowned the sun (They crowned the sun)
But I believe that they are free
When their time was done (Their time was done)
They were drowned by the only one (They crowned the sun)
But I believe that they are free
Washed by the sun

Our statues
The soaring edifice of our times
Detracted from the ways of the wise
The future will view all history as a crime
So father, tell us when is the time to rise

They crowned the sun (They crowned the sun)
They crowned the sun (They crowned the sun)
But I believe that they are free
When their time was done (Their time was done)
They were drowned by the only one (They crowned the sun)
But I believe that they are free

We're the day birds
Deciding to fly against the sky
Within our dreams, we all wake up
To kiss the ones who are born to die

We're the greying herds
Hurting each other with our lies
Within our dreams, we all wake up
To kiss the ones who are born...
Born to die

They crowned the sun (They crowned the sun)
They crowned the sun (They crowned the sun)
But I believe that they are free
When their time was done (Their time was done)
They were drowned by the only one (They crowned the sun)
But I believe that they are free
They crowned the sun (They crowned the sun)
They crowned the sun (They crowned the sun)
But I believe that they are free
And we believe that they are free
Cause I believe that they are me
Washed by the sun
  • #10,312
  • Nov 21, 2014 6:42pm Nov 21, 2014 6:42pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} For me has jumped the big blue again. For you???
yes, also now below of big blue
  • #10,313
  • Nov 22, 2014 11:44am Nov 22, 2014 11:44am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} yes, also now below of big blue
In my opinion, this movement from 1.235x to 1.26 is a movement to break the 1.235x hurdle. We will know soon. I wait your EW analysis when you will be able to do it.
Best Regards
  • #10,314
  • Nov 22, 2014 12:18pm Nov 22, 2014 12:18pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} In my opinion, this movement from 1.235x to 1.26 is a movement to break the 1.235x hurdle. We will know soon. I wait your EW analysis when you will be able to do it. Best Regards

Hi Lavanda,

right now I am exploring some EW counts, but can not make my mind up right now. Maybe I spent too much time in the asylum LOL


But weekend is not over yet, so some time is left for some counts :-)


Catch you later,


Markus
  • #10,315
  • Nov 22, 2014 3:40pm Nov 22, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Lavanda, right now I am exploring some EW counts, but can not make my mind up right now. Maybe I spent too much time in the asylum LOL But weekend is not over yet, so some time is left for some counts :-) Catch you later, Markus
Never is enough time going to make sports... I usually go running, four days a week. It's very good for persons who are nearly always in front of one screen and sat down doing one activity which makes you sometimes get nervous as is trading.
  • #10,316
  • Nov 23, 2014 4:29am Nov 23, 2014 4:29am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Never is enough time going to make sports... I usually go running, four days a week. It's very good for persons who are nearly always in front of one screen and sat down doing one activity which makes you sometimes get nervous as is trading.
  • #10,317
  • Nov 23, 2014 5:53am Nov 23, 2014 5:53am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Lavanda, right now I am exploring some EW counts, but can not make my mind up right now. Maybe I spent too much time in the asylum LOL But weekend is not over yet, so some time is left for some counts :-) Catch you later, Markus

maybe this

https://twitter.com/DocClaude
  • #10,318
  • Nov 23, 2014 6:54am Nov 23, 2014 6:54am
here we go:

EU daily TF


the last waves down from the red 4 high seems to develop as ending diagonal, because the substructure of the waves do not really look impulsive

alternative the waves down could also only be the wave B of an ABC expanded flat of wave red 4

The other alternative, which may become my new main count, is, that we are almost in wave blue 5. When we play this scenario, and simply look at the Awesome oscillator, it would fit nicely



most likely targets from fib analysis point of view are now the 2266 and 2115 area


On Sunday/Monday we may see first a push higher

Invalidation would come with a push above 2599 before makink a new low of the year In this case one has to assess anew the situation
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 58 KB
  • #10,319
  • Nov 23, 2014 9:52am Nov 23, 2014 9:52am
DAX, target 3 months 11000+:
http://prntscr.com/59bdjt
  • #10,320
  • Nov 23, 2014 7:08pm Nov 23, 2014 7:08pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
The Massively Crowded 'Long-USD, Short-Treasuries' Trade Just Got Crowded-er
15 traders viewing now