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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #4,921
  • Nov 17, 2014 1:15pm Nov 17, 2014 1:15pm
Quoting hougie
As an OTA student this entire thread makes me ill. For several reasons. As someone who always wanted to learn how to trade I had no clue where to start. So I received a mailer about trading and ended up spending 21k for education with OTA. Basically their "patented" supply and demand principles are not so exclusive as I thought. Shame on me. But what did I know. Its a bummer. On one hand I can appreciate what your doing but on the other hand when I see all the EXACT terminology and even verbiage as in our textbooks I become quite ill. Sir you may...
This possibility crossed my mind:
What if the core of terminology and verbiage were not initially created by OTA either? What if they too assembled them from common used notions in S/D trading circles? (i won't buy in any argument that there was no S/D trading before OTA). They may have enriched and copyrighted the assembled material but copyright does not necessary means originality, does it? What if they just were the first to systematize, package and market S/D trading?

I don't try to defend the OP (probably he needs no defenders anyway), just want to see the issue from a different perspective.

I sincerely hope that you are harvesting a rich yield from the time and money you invested. I wouldn't mind spending that kind of money if i could afford it and knew that i was buying being mentored to success.
George
  • #4,922
  • Nov 17, 2014 2:24pm Nov 17, 2014 2:24pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} They are not CP's my friend , they are obvious valleys. Believe me when I say it does not detect CP's, its bases on zig zag indicator to draw zones, so its not possible for the automatic indicator to detect them.Also if u think those blue levels are CP's, u are then not understanding the core rules on supply and demand, the formation of the zones. You need to or anything else can't be applied and nothing will work
Does the indicator draw correct the reversal supply and demand levels?
  • #4,923
  • Nov 17, 2014 3:48pm Nov 17, 2014 3:48pm
Quoting lakis071051
{quote} Does the indicator draw correct the reversal supply and demand levels?
I don't know what a reversal supply or demand level is, so the indicator won't do that. Remember the automatic SD indicator is not my creation, it was originally created by insanities industries and it does have limitations imposed by the methodoly used. I am NOT using the the automatic indicator, use it at your own risk.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,924
  • Edited 4:56pm Nov 17, 2014 4:03pm | Edited 4:56pm
Quoting hougie
As an OTA student this entire thread makes me ill. For several reasons. As someone who always wanted to learn how to trade I had no clue where to start. So I received a mailer about trading and ended up spending 21k for education with OTA. Basically their "patented" supply and demand principles are not so exclusive as I thought. Shame on me. But what did I know. Its a bummer. On one hand I can appreciate what your doing but on the other hand when I see all the exact terminology and even verbiage as in our textbooks I become quite ill. Sir you may...
It's great to read such a nice first message Shouldn't you be spending your time in applying the rules in your texts books and not complaining in this thread which has no relationship whatsoever with yourself and the decisions you have taken?

You should be happy to trade the rules you have on your text books, you should not complain to me or anybody else about trading supply and demand. You should be spending all your spare time in applying the methodology of your text books, testing it and gaining conficence in trading them, because it's the only way you are going to make it, not by writting posts in forums complaining about your decisions.

Take a close look at your text book, there will be no reference at all at many of the rules decribed in the methodology in post #1 (for instance, the way I use trendlines, what a level has accomplished - it should take out opposing zone -, etc), it's unavoidable to use terminology like supply, demand, rally, base, drop, depature, arrival, imbalance, they can't be patented the same way air cannot be patented because we all breath it. How else do you want the rest of the world to call those? Rise instead of rally? Fall instead of drop? Look around in the internet, you will see dozens if not hundreds of forums calling it the same way.

I won't let a discussion to be started on this topic, it's not the first time either unfortunately, anybody who does will be banned from this thread. This thread is about trading supply and demand not complaining about it. Any charts/questions will be answered, none about this topoc. You'd better use your time wisely to forward test any rules you trade and then you MIGHT have a chance to succeed. You need as much time as possible to focus on your trading not on complaining to others about the decisions you've taken in your life. You've been ignored and won't be allowed to post in this thread, negativity is not welcome, use your energy effectively on your trading and not on complaining to me, I have nothing to do with you or the decisions you've taken.

This thread is about trading supply and demand, please post any charts or trade setups, we can discuss about those freely, complaints should be left to those have time for negativity.

Good luck with your trading.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,925
  • Nov 17, 2014 4:35pm Nov 17, 2014 4:35pm
Quoting lakis071051
{quote} Thanks for the reply. You misunderstood me. I did not want doubt your knowledge that this indicator is not drawing the levels correct. These levels on the chart looked for me like CPs. I was wrong. I have downloaded a set of indicators from the email you sent me: ATM_Pure_Market_Price.ex4, EMA_line.ex4, Fractals (Bill Williams).ex4, PositionSizeCalculator.ex4, RectangleReader.ex4, Supply_Demand_Zones.ex4, SupportAndResistance.ex4. Do you suggest me to use all of them except of Supply_Demand_Zones.ex4? I see in your videos you use an indicator...
I would suggest that you learn how to draw the zones by yourself and not depending on an indicator that does it in a way you don't fully understand. Understanding how to draw zones will help you so much in your trading, you will not require any indicator in the future if you know how to draw them manually, but it will take you a LOT of time to learn how to do it, be prepared for a lot of work. The small dot in the middle of the basing candles is automatically drawn by default by the rectangle reader indicator, there is no other indicator needed for that.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,926
  • Nov 18, 2014 2:56am Nov 18, 2014 2:56am
Example of an aggressive long on the Daily chart on Nikkei index. Took an aggressive long very high in the curve nested within a potential WK CP DZ that didn't consolidate away yet. Taking the risk because trend is so strong. Will manage my SL more aggressively as well in this scenario.

Bias is long on Nikkei as well as most Yen cross pairs since Nikkei is inversely correlated with with the Yen, strong Nikkei normally equals to weak yen. EUR/JPY, GBPJY and Yen cross pairs are rallying, meaning Yen is weak in confluence with the general look on Nikkei.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,927
  • Edited 1:24pm Nov 18, 2014 11:32am | Edited 1:24pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} You are not drawing the zones correctly George, please watch the video on how to draw the zones, there is a mechanical way of drawing them. Those zones you drew are hugh and are not correct bases. It's gonna take you some time to learn how to do it, it requires a lot of testing and hundreds of hours watching the charts but the video on how to draw them mechanically should help you A LOT. Please watch it and let me know if it really helped you understand better how to draw supply and demand zones mechanically. Have a great weekend. Alfonso...
I watched the webinar about drawing levels mechanically. Actually, it was the 4rth time i have watched it but i did it again for discipline.
I am pretty familiar with level drawing but still not confident enough about finding the right levels for curve extremes.
I am currently testing some nuances on expanding level width when basing candles wicks are long. Anyway, out of respect for Alfonso's work, i will draw levels exactly as per the rules on the charts i upload to the thread (until i present the outcome of my testing, if welcome of course).

Analysis on NZDUSD:
The CP SZ on Daily sitting approx. at the proximal of WK Fresh & Original CP SZ is a very good candidate for price reversal and realigning to the downtrend on all TFs.
Additional confluences: MN & WK Flipzone, MN 50%, W1 20 EMA.

Testing shows that not only curve extremes but HTF flipzones and 50% of HTF width spots are also effective areas for reversal and realigning, e.g. MN flipzone and 50% for WK realignment, WK flipzone and 50% for D realignment etc.

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George
  • #4,928
  • Nov 18, 2014 1:56pm Nov 18, 2014 1:56pm
Quoting panoramia
Example of an aggressive long on the Daily chart on Nikkei index. Took an aggressive long very high in the curve nested within a potential WK CP DZ that didn't consolidate away yet. Taking the risk because trend is so strong. Will manage my SL more aggressively as well in this scenario. Bias is long on Nikkei as well as most Yen cross pairs since Nikkei is inversely correlated with with the Yen, strong Nikkei normally equals to weak yen. EUR/JPY, GBPJY and Yen cross pairs are rallying, meaning Yen is weak in confluence with the general look on Nikkei....
It can be a scary ride. IMHO judging from the corrective form of the current leg up (in H4) that follows an impulsing leg down, it is probable that price will retest entry before moving to TP.

But anyway, this is just my point of view and i may be wrong because i am a lot less experienced than you. We will just wait and see. Thank you for sharing your trade
George
  • #4,929
  • Nov 18, 2014 3:10pm Nov 18, 2014 3:10pm
Quoting 1m40th
{quote} It can be a scary ride. IMHO judging from the corrective form of the current leg up (in H4) that follows an impulsing leg down, it is probable that price will retest entry before moving to TP. But anyway, this is just my point of view and i may be wrong because i am a lot less experienced than you. We will just wait and see. Thank you for sharing your trade
Yes, this is why it's a bit aggressive and managing it aggressively as well. I can be wrong, you can be wrong, we don't know. It's an aggressive long as we both agree. Let's see what the market has in store for us
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,930
  • Nov 18, 2014 10:40pm Nov 18, 2014 10:40pm
Quoting 1m40th
{quote} I watched the webinar about drawing levels mechanically. Actually, it was the 4rth time i have watched it but i did it again for discipline. I am pretty familiar with level drawing but still not confident enough about finding the right levels for curve extremes. I am currently testing some nuances on expanding level width when basing candles wicks are long. Anyway, out of respect for Alfonso's work, i will draw levels exactly as per the rules on the charts i upload to the thread (until i present the outcome of my testing, if welcome of course)....
Alfonso do you have any remarks on the analysis? Where could it be wrong?
George
  • #4,931
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:01am Nov 19, 2014 1:01am
Quoting 1m40th
{quote} Alfonso do you have any remarks on the analysis? Where could it be wrong?
Yes, there are nice odds for that short to work on nzd/usd my friend. But that might take some time to happen since NZD/USD could be dropping from where it's now, a non 2:1 WK supply zone, we had 2 pin candles the last couple of days, we could have some shorts on H4 if it finally drops.
Hope it makes sense

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,932
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:03am Nov 19, 2014 1:03am
Weekly short trade triggered on AUD/USD. Monthly and Weekly are down, selling Weekly supply zones is higher odds since bigger picture is down. I am also short on my Daily account on a nested D1 supply zone.

Monthly is down, Weekly is down. In a downtrend demand zones are taken out and supply zones are respected. If a supply zone is not respected in a downtrend it's normally when we have reached a bigger TF of demand and a bigger pullback is likely going to happen.

Have a great day!
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,933
  • Nov 19, 2014 4:30am Nov 19, 2014 4:30am
Hi there. What do you think about eur gbp. Thanks an have a great day.
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  • #4,934
  • Nov 19, 2014 4:52am Nov 19, 2014 4:52am
Quoting FXmagnets
Hi there. What do you think about eur gbp. Thanks an have a great day.{image}
Weekly supply zone in control on EUR/GBP. Weekly supply is not fresh and bigger penetration was expected. D1 against Weekly, weekly normally wins. Good level to go long at on the Daily but WK supply is in control. I am not in front of my computer now so I can't post the chart, but if you could please share it and post your weekly chart, we'll all see what I mean. That doesn't mean that D1 long can't work, but score is lower due to WK bearish consolidation and WK SZ in control

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,935
  • Nov 19, 2014 5:12am Nov 19, 2014 5:12am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Weekly supply zone in control on EUR/GBP. Weekly supply is not fresh and bigger penetration was expected. D1 against Weekly, weekly normally wins. Good level to go long at on the Daily but WK supply is in control. I am not in front of my computer now so I can't post the chart, but if you could please share it and post your weekly chart, we'll all see what I mean. That doesn't mean that D1 long can't work, but score is lower due to WK bearish consolidation and WK SZ in control Cheers, Alfonso
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  • #4,936
  • Nov 19, 2014 8:32am Nov 19, 2014 8:32am
Quoting FXmagnets
{quote} {image}
You missed a WK SZ, makes sense? WK SZ is under attack but still WK SZ. I also drew the WK TL

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,937
  • Nov 19, 2014 12:49pm Nov 19, 2014 12:49pm
Hi Alfonso

In terms of the rules,we connect two valleys( in uptrend) to draw a trend line and once a trend line has been breached, all demand levels are negated and we wait for a a demand zone of a higher time frame to be hit before going long, am I correct Sir?

I have attached a chart of what happened to Gold today, I trade 1 hour chart. What confused me here was that there was a gap in the market and I' m not sure if it affects the way we should draw the levels in anyway.

Have I drawn levels correctly, where I have marked No.1 and No.2?

Is there an explanation of why price went up demand zone marked " No.2"?

Kind Regards

Abie
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  • #4,938
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:18pm Nov 19, 2014 1:18pm
Quoting Abzozo1
Hi Alfonso In terms of the rules,we connect two valleys( in uptrend) to draw a trend line and once a trend line has been breached, all demand levels are negated and we wait for a a demand zone of a higher time frame to be hit before going long, am I correct Sir? I have attached a chart of what happened to Gold today, I trade 1 hour chart. What confused me here was that there was a gap in the market and I' m not sure if it affects the way we should draw the levels in anyway. Have I drawn levels correctly, where I have marked No.1 and No.2? Is there...
There is no way to know why price rallied from zone #1 Only that there were more buyers than sellers, who knows why exactly? I will never know

When TL is broken we wait for 1 TF higher than the TF where the TL was detected as broken. Nested zone within a higher TF zone, if that higher TF is trending, else you'll experience many unnecessary losses counter-trending
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,939
  • Nov 20, 2014 12:50am Nov 20, 2014 12:50am
Thanks for the response Sir, noted.
  • #4,940
  • Nov 20, 2014 12:47pm Nov 20, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I would suggest that you learn how to draw the zones by yourself and not depending on an indicator that does it in a way you don't fully understand. Understanding how to draw zones will help you so much in your trading, you will not require any indicator in the future if you know how to draw them manually, but it will take you a LOT of time to learn how to do it, be prepared for a lot of work. The small dot in the middle of the basing candles is automatically drawn by default by the rectangle reader indicator, there is no other indicator...
I saw the video “How to Draw Supply and Demand trading levels and Trendlines in a mechanical way” Time: 18:47 and I have a question:
You do not draw the lower level of the Supply Area at the open of the fourth big Basing Bullish Engulfing Candle, because the lowest level of its Body is below the lowest Body level of the first, second and third Basing candle.
According to the same logic why you do not draw the lower level of the Supply Area at the close (lowest level) of the first Basing candle since the lowest level of the second and third Basing candle is also below the lowest Body level of the first Basing candle.
Thanks
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