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Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

  • #481
  • Nov 14, 2014 10:14am Nov 14, 2014 10:14am
Quoting Nefser
{quote} Ok, that is what I believe you were doing/suggesting, but it seems to slightly contradict 'staying in' a trade, which is what longer term traders would do. --- If you are in trades A,B,C,D and price shifts back down to where D goes back to BE or less, you could take D and A to average a nice gain, but still be ready to run with B,C. If the trend has failed (or it's a rather large retrace - hard to tell which), you can decide what % of what is 'left' from the profit of C you want to take and set a limit there. This also goes for B, but you...
Hi Nefser. There are a few things I know I must do consistently to win over the long haul. I know have to cut losers short. I put a lot of thought in how to do that without letting losses mount up and get out of control or exiting good trades too early. Sometimes I just exit quickly when an entry proves to be a bad choice. Sometimes I'll exit days later when what was a good trade, perhaps with winning and losing positions in the same pair, turns bad. If I'm already in a position to take some profits off another trade anyway and that offsets my loss(es), then I can maintain a smooth equity curve, and continue making profit on the remaining trades.

But losses must be taken eventually and generally it's better to take them when they are so small that one doesn't have to worry about offsetting them by taking a win off another trade. In that way trading just flows naturally and at the end of the day or week a few very small losses were taken and a some nice profits more than offset them to produce a smooth increase in the equity curve. Canceling out a large loss with a large win DOES NOT cancel out the mistake of having let a small loss grow into a large one in the first place. Anytime you have a large loss, you have already made a critical trading mistake by letting a small loss turn into a large one. Avoid that initial mistake and you wont have to spend much time worrying over how to mitigate that loss to smooth the equity curve.

Swing trading is a little different style that attempts to take advantage of the market's intrinsic volatility. It requires that the trade be held through the downswings so that it can be cashed in later on an even higher upswing. I know it works quite well for some people, but I don't subscribe to it because it doesn't allow me to cut my losses short. This is just a question of personal trading style and everyone should do what works best for them.

Best success to you.

G
  • #482
  • Nov 14, 2014 10:17am Nov 14, 2014 10:17am
Quoting mk5
{quote} basically out of 9 timeframes if theres one going againt the rest i'll just look for entry there yeah ?
Yes. At least I want to see that it has turned in my direction to enter.

G
  • #483
  • Nov 14, 2014 10:21am Nov 14, 2014 10:21am
Quoting AlbinaGrande
{quote} Thanks G, I currently have a wide Stop back at 112.5 for insurance purposes which hopefully does not get hit. If so, I would still be up 500 pips in total. When the Pull Back comes, I would obviously like to cover at a higher level which for me would at least initially mean an opposing Entry Order until things sorted out in a few days. From Panama I can Hedge/Freeze my position unlike the story in the US. I really appreciate the time that you spend with us. AG
Sounds like you have already considered the worst case scenario AG. Good job! Keep calm and carry on.

G
  • #484
  • Nov 14, 2014 10:44am Nov 14, 2014 10:44am
Quoting roughtrader
in a trend, just buy and wait, the trend will take care of the rest, could anything be more easy?
Good point. A very wealthy trader once said, I made most of my money by doing nothing. Another said, I made most of my money sitting on my hands.


Here are nine surprising things Jesse Livermore said regarding excessive trading:
1. “Money is made by sitting, not trading.”
2. “It takes time to make money.”
3. “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”
4. “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.”
5. “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.”
6. “Buy right, sit tight.”
7. “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”
8. “Don’t give me timing, give me time.”
and finally, the most important thing:
9. “There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.”

I had to wait for three weeks for the uptrend to resume in the Yen. It was a long and sometimes agonizing wait. I'm actually now long large in AJ, CadJ, NJ, and UJ. I had no choice but wait for the market to come to me. If I had to wait for three months, or three years, from my point of view I had no other choice. That said, I now have to choose if and how to take my profits. Just giving that some serious thought at the moment.

"Buy right, sit tight." I like that one.

Best success.

G
  • #485
  • Nov 14, 2014 12:41pm Nov 14, 2014 12:41pm
We don't have enough of these threads. Keep it up!
  • #486
  • Nov 14, 2014 1:02pm Nov 14, 2014 1:02pm
Quoting Myo
We don't have enough of these threads. Keep it up!
Thanks Myo. Glad to have you aboard.

G
  • #487
  • Edited 8:06am Nov 18, 2014 7:53am | Edited 8:06am
Hit one preset TP on NJ during the night. I always set a very generous TP on a trade when I put it on, but I rarely hit them. When I do, I'm almost always taking profit out on a local maximum. Making money while sleeping. I love it when a plan comes together. CadJpy and UJ pulling back a bit now, but NJ and still going strong and AJ just recovering from a small retracement. NJ now at levels not seen since 2007. I have more TP's set at that high, about 400 pips up, but like I said, I rarely hit those. It sure would make a nice Christmas present though
  • #488
  • Nov 18, 2014 9:39am Nov 18, 2014 9:39am
Quoting Graviton
Hit one preset TP on NJ during the night. I always set a very generous TP on a trade when I put it on, but I rarely hit them. When I do, I'm almost always taking profit out on a local maximum. Making money while sleeping. I love it when a plan comes together. CadJpy and UJ pulling back a bit now, but NJ and still going strong and AJ just recovering from a small retracement. NJ now at levels not seen since 2007. I have more TP's set at that high, about 400 pips up, but like I said, I rarely hit those. It sure would make a nice Christmas present though...
Very Nice G,

Just in general terms how do you set your TP? Did you close all NJ at once or layer out of your positions and still hold some?

My UJ positions continue to soldier on, up 1700 in Floating Profit. I have moved my emergency Stop up to 113.6, the D1 21EMA.

Best, AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #489
  • Edited 1:27pm Nov 19, 2014 8:24am | Edited 1:27pm
Hi AG,

I set the TP at a number that I don't think I'm likely to hit in a week or so in the trade. In this case the NJ Long trade was taken a week ago and TP was 400 pips. It was hit at 93.038 which was close to the peak price hit back in Oct 2007. In order to win, you have to take profits sometime. Of course we'd like to let good trades run on and on forever, but that's just not going to happen. Every trend comes to an end, eventually. So, if we are forced to take profits sometime, when is the best time? The answer is always the best time to take profits is on the very peak move up in price over a very long time. Setting this initial TP always guarantees that if it is hit I will be taking profits off a peak over a long time of trading, my profit taking goal.

As long as the trend is still running, I scale out with profits, either by hitting a TP goal or by other methods. Of course, I'm not always going to hit this TP goal. In fact, if I'm setting it correctly I usually wont, but if I do I will almost always be taking profits at the very best time possible. I have other less effective methods to take profits as well, like trailing stops way behind supports to get me out with profits in case of a major unexpected retracement and of course, the tried and true method of taking one lot off as close to a peak as I can judge it and putting another on to replace as close to the bottom of a dip in price as I can judge it.

Making pips in this business is rather easy. Keeping pips is hard as hell. To keep them you must "have" them and to have them you must take them. The tricks are to take them as near a maximum profit point as possible, and yet to continue to participate in the trend as long as it runs. Entering a good trade is also rather easy as it turns out. A child could do it by accident with about a 50/50 chance just by hitting random keys. Exiting the trade properly takes real trading skill and it's where all the money is really won or lost. I advise everyone to give LOTS of thought and study to Exit skills. Read everything you can find on it. It wont be much. Top traders keep their exit methods as closely guarded secrets for good reasons. Think about it, over and over. Consider it from every angle and practice it to perfection. That's just my humble advice.

G
  • #490
  • Edited 1:39pm Nov 19, 2014 1:24pm | Edited 1:39pm
Wow, I just made another ton of profits on my long Yen trades. I've been suggesting these long Yen trades for both technical and fundamental reasons since back in March in this thread. I have actually been trading the Yen long since late 2012 when it hit a bottom and turned up in all timeframes. I have to take a break every once in a while as it consolidates, but it pretty much been a steady run up for two years now. These sorts of moves are what fortunes are made of. I hope readers of this thread got some of that. I did everything I could to encourage the trade. I'm not a signal service, but when I see a good one, I'll try to note it here. From there, you have to make your own decisions. I love to talk about trading though, so if anyone has questions, comments, or suggestions, don't be too shy to post. It's a discussion forum, so let's discuss.

G
  • #491
  • Edited 2:18pm Nov 19, 2014 2:03pm | Edited 2:18pm
I think most readers of this thread probably got bored when they found out it was a get rich slowly thread vs. a get rich quick scheme. That's ok. The few that are left are the hard core traders that never give up. They are the ones that will make their fortunes in the markets. I don't mean to offend anyone, but as they say, quitters never win and winners never quit. That was my boxing coach's favorite saying. His other favorite was, if you don't punch your way out of that like I taught you I'll get in there and kick your a$$ myself! He wasn't kidding either.

Moving on. I've given the surviving readers of this thread plenty of tools to enter good trend trades and manage those trades. If there are any questions about that at all I'll try my best to answer them. Sometimes what I do is more instinct than rule driven. Over many years, I think anyone can develop the instincts to trade well. Of course, each must find her or his own path to enlightenment. Honestly, I'm probably a slow learner at this stuff, but once I have it I have it good.

Now, let's examine exiting trades, in excruciating detail. Let's look at every possible reason to exit. We want to discuss the how, what, when, where and why of good exiting. After all, we really only do two things here. We enter trades and we exit them. We can enter lots of bad trades and still make a huge fortune if we exit them well. Let that thought sink in a bit. Trading is 10% about the entry and 90% about the exit. That's all there is, entries and exits, and exits are SO much more important than entries. We could probably enter at random and still make a huge fortune with wise exits. Let's call this next section, Expert Exits. Before I start, any questions, comments, suggestions?
  • #492
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:11pm Nov 19, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting Graviton
I think most readers of this thread probably got bored when they found out it was a get rich slowly thread vs. a get rich quick scheme. That's ok. The few that are left are the hard core traders that never give up. They are the ones that will make their fortunes in the markets. I don't mean to offend anyone, but as they say, quitters never win and winners never quit. That was my boxing coach's favorite saying. His other favorite was, if you don't if you don't punch your way out of that like I taught you I'll get in there and kick your a$$ myself!...
Hi G,

Keep it coming. I am with you all the way!!

Today I closed my UJ 108 and 109, but still have 116, 117 and 118 on my ladder still open with a SL at a composite BE.

AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #493
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:14pm Nov 19, 2014 2:14pm
do you know why people share?
because they unknowingly gain more than anybody from what they share.
people come and go to your thread, take what they get and most of them will not even say you a word. this is absolutely fine. this is usually how it is.
but what you need to know is, no matter what you say, you are the one who benefits multiple times more than anybody else from what you give.
this is one of the universal laws.
As Above, So Below
  • #494
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:39pm Nov 19, 2014 2:39pm
Quoting Graviton
Now, let's examine exiting trades, in excruciating detail. Let's look at every possible reason to exit. We want to discuss the how, what, when, where and why of good exiting. After all, we really only do two things here. We enter trades and we exit them. We can enter lots of bad trades and still make a huge fortune if we exit them well. Let that thought sink in a bit. Trading is 10% about the entry and 90% about the exit. That's all there is, entries and exits, and exits are SO much more important than entries. We could probably enter at random...
your post sound familiar:


Quoting tashkent
{quote} Trade consists of three parts:
1) entry
2) trade/position management
3) exit

parts one and three take less than a second to complete. click of a mouse button. click, your in and click, you are out. the main, the most important part, however, is the second. let's say, now you are in and have an open position. what would you do? basically nothing, just wait until it hits the profit or sl, right? or enter, walk away, and come back to see if you hit tp or sl. but i have to tell you: this is ABSOLUTELY WRONG attitude. Actually, one has to spend...
As Above, So Below
  • #495
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:50pm Nov 19, 2014 2:50pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
{quote} Hi G, Keep it coming. I am with you all the way!! Today I closed my UJ 108 and 109, but still have 116, 117 and 118 on my ladder still open with a SL at a composite BE. AG
Way to go AG!
  • #496
  • Nov 19, 2014 3:01pm Nov 19, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting tashkent
do you know why people share? because they unknowingly gain more than anybody from what they share. people come and go to your thread, take what they get and most of them will not even say you a word. this is absolutely fine. this is usually how it is. but what you need to know is, no matter what you say, you are the one who benefits multiple times more than anybody else from what you give. this is one of the universal laws.
I agree 100%. I've gotten lots more out of this thread than I have put into it. The questions and comments have caused me to re-examine things that I was just ignoring or taking for granted earlier. We are all on the learning curve somewhere.

Here's a trick for you. I actually have two live accounts. I trade them a little differently. The first is my test account. I call it my LTG (Line To God) account. It has a balance currently about 1/6th of my Main Account. I trade it with 1/2 the position size as in my main account. When I think I see a good trade, it first goes into my LTG account. If it works well, I continue the trade into my main account. If it doesn't, I cut the loss short and move on. I can't even say why that works so well for me, but it does. I'm not sure if it would work for anyone else or not. I haven't told anyone about it before.
  • #497
  • Edited 4:52pm Nov 19, 2014 4:40pm | Edited 4:52pm
Expert Exits

Several years ago, before Egypt fell into chaos, I decided I wanted to see the pyramids. They are after all the only surviving wonder from the 7 Wonders of the ancient world. I wanted this to be a First Class adventure all the way, so I bought first class tickets for family members, hired private tour guides, stayed in the best hotels, etc. It was the adventure of a lifetime. Being able to go anywhere and experience anything is just one of the perks of good trading. While traveling down the Nile river on a first class river cruise, I met a fellow trader who was also out for a bit of adventure. As we sipped the best French wine I have ever tasted, he told me his story. He had started trading at about 30 years old and by 45 had made his fortune, more than he could possibly spend in a lifetime, so he quit. Just like that! Now he just spends time with family and friends and travels the world enjoying it's sights, foods, cultures and such. Of course, I had to ask him his secret, and he smiled and said everyone asks him that. He then said his secret was he knew when to get out. At the time, I though the answer meant he knew when to get out of trading, and I was a little disappointed with it. I played that conversation over in my head about 500 times and finally, years later, I understood what he meant. He meant he knew how and when to exit a trade. I thought he was being arrogant with me and he was actually giving me the best advice he could. I've now understood that knowing when to get out is the most important bit of knowledge in trading.


I'd like this to be a collaborative section. I'll put down everything I know about exiting a trade and if anyone has anything to add, toss it in. In the end, I hope we are all making better exits than we have ever made. I'll start with the "Why?" of exiting trades. What are all the possible reasons we can think of to exit a trade?

1) It's losing - I've already gone on and on about exiting losing trades before the losses pile up. There is absolutely no reason for anyone who has read this thread to ever suffer a large loss again in their trading career. Large losses are for suckers. If I had every large loss back that I suffered early on in my trading career, I could afford a dozen around the world trips. Now, I know better. Cut the loss short and find a winner instead. It doesn't matter how hard it is to find a winner, holding a small loser until it becomes a large loss is worse. Much worse.

2) It's winning - As noted earlier, in order to win at trading, we must take profit sometime. It may be this week, or next week, or next year, but eventually we have to take our profits out of a trade to win. This isn't the stock market. We can't hold a trade for 30 years and be sure it will only go up like Warren Buffett does. Eventually price will reverse and we will have to take our profits out to win.

3) It's doing nothing - We've probably all had trades that just stalled after we entered them. Sometimes they take off in our desired direction days after we enter, but the simple fact is that for us to win, the price has to move.

4) Reduce risk - I currently have 24 positions long Yen with no offsetting hedges. Out of those 24 positions, 23 are positive and one, my latest position on AJ long is -3 pips, but it is now steadily climbing. I am very uncomfortable with this level of risk. I'll soon exit some of the positions, not because they aren't winning, but simply to reduce my risk to a reasonable level and restore my level of comfort.

5) Live life - Like the trader I met on the ship, at some point we just need to go out and live life. As much fun as making pips is, and it's a hell of a lot of fun, there has to be more to life. At some point we all need to shut it down for some reason or another and go do something else for a while.

Can anyone think of another good reason to exit a trade that couldn't fall into one of the above 5?
  • #498
  • Nov 19, 2014 6:10pm Nov 19, 2014 6:10pm
This one is linked to (3)doing nothing and (4) reducing positions:

6) Desire to enter a trade for a different pair? In this case, we may want to close one or more trades in one pair (due to it under-performing/stalled or because we need to reduce our outstanding risk)
  • #499
  • Nov 19, 2014 6:19pm Nov 19, 2014 6:19pm
Quoting Nefser
This one is linked to (3)doing nothing and (4) reducing positions: 6) Desire to enter a trade for a different pair? In this case, we may want to close one or more trades in one pair (due to it under-performing/stalled or because we need to reduce our outstanding risk)
OK, sure. Perhaps we are trying to raise our margin level. That's a good one.
  • #500
  • Nov 19, 2014 8:18pm Nov 19, 2014 8:18pm
Quoting Graviton
Expert Exits ...... 2) It's winning - As noted earlier, in order to win at trading, we must take profit sometime. It may be this week, or next week, or next year, but eventually we have to take our profits out of a trade to win. This isn't the stock market. We can't hold a trade for 30 years and be sure it will only go up like Warren Buffett does. Eventually price will reverse and we will have to take our profits out to win. 3) It's doing nothing - We've probably all had trades that just stalled after we entered them. Sometimes they take off in...
Hi G,

It is probably self evident, but the maintenance of a smooth positive Equity Curve strikes me as being a worthy goal in its own right. Obviously this can be accomplished only by selling winning positions. In addition, limiting the gap between your Floating Profit and your Balance probably will help you get a better nights sleep even if this means that in effect your FP will be diminished to a certain extent.

Just a Noob's mumblings, AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
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