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  • #5,861
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:43am Nov 13, 2014 2:43am
Quoting The Fool
/ES futures pointing to more upside Thurs. I would like to see some fat red candles.
never conflate deflation with disinflation

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/world...073000659.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,862
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:59am Nov 13, 2014 2:59am
current bull market closing in on 6 years. 1990's Nasdaq run went 9 years.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-13_nasdaq.png Size: 50 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,863
  • Nov 13, 2014 9:05am Nov 13, 2014 9:05am
Quoting The Fool
.... With EEM trading at $41.21 today, this calendar is a bet that it will fall into the new year. The conventional wisdom is that em's will fall if/when the Fed begins raising rates....the latter will slow or turn back the US bull market also. Best outcome below is EEM finishes Jan cycle just below $37 and the $0.25 risk returns $0.48 max. I saw $39's also...
Other markets behave quite differently than SnP, even DAX has lost the correlation (because of Ukraine, IMO)...
I have just read an article comparing the two markets that makes higher highs - US and Japan market, with other markets.

2 Countries For Old Bulls

Summary

  1. The bulls are off and running once again in the U.S.
  2. But what about stocks across the rest of the world?
  3. While the bulls are stampeding in the U.S., the bears are out of hibernation and on the hunt across most other parts of the globe.

I like this author. Simple charts, easy language.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

About your ideas, I can't tell much, given my lack of experience in trading calendars and especially diagonals. I can tell that tastytrade guys are doing both of them when IV is low, and I have seen calendars like Nov/March '15... so Nov expires, you than sell Dec, and so on... I personally would rather hold calendars than diagonals, for margin reasons. We both have seen, thanks to your ideas, that cheap calendars can be used in high IV environment, and even as cheap shots for ER's plays.

Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,864
  • Nov 13, 2014 9:32am Nov 13, 2014 9:32am
2 interesting things...

IV rise and crush observation on JCP
In last ER's cycle I did a small bullish trade - just bought some OTM JCP calls, BUT 3-4 days BEFORE earnings, and closed them for profit also BEFORE earnings... profited from both small rise of price of U/L AND rising IV. I noticed JCP ER's to late now.


I was thinking yesterday what to trade, and ditched WMT, CSCO, TYC... no big moves on either, options was very cheap... and than I was thinking about JCP, and stock was already up about 4% to $7.5, and I was bullish again - so I looked at weekly 7 puts and those traded around $0.30... I was thinking to sell them, IV was super high, a bit over 200%. Today, JCP is down to $7.00, and those puts are trading for $0.18 / $0.19... IV collapsed from 200+% to 122%. So, no matter that directional assumption - bullish - was wrong, IV crush was so hard that you could make money solely on it.

WMT is UP post earnings... was down 5 times in a row (from daily close to daily open)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,865
  • Nov 13, 2014 9:35am Nov 13, 2014 9:35am
hello fool I am interested in binary and thanks to God I meet you, I am very new in binary or option trading so I need guidance please can you or any one come to my rescue? please hit me up thanks
My personality is Me and My attitude depends on You
  • #5,866
  • Nov 13, 2014 9:51am Nov 13, 2014 9:51am
Quoting The Fool
I use the ToS Spread Book utility to look at spreads that have been entered - you can search by type (calendar, diag, etc) and then sort by debit/credit size, etc. Noticed this one ( and similar) on EEM. With EEM trading at $41.21 today, this calendar is a bet that it will fall into the new year. The conventional wisdom is that em's will fall if/when the Fed begins raising rates....the latter will slow or turn back the US bull market also. Best outcome below is EEM finishes Jan cycle just below $37 and the $0.25 risk returns $0.48 max. I saw $39's...
I did the EEM $37 Feb/Jan calendar for $0.25.....actually got filled for $0.12
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,867
  • Nov 13, 2014 10:02am Nov 13, 2014 10:02am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Other markets behave quite differently than SnP, even DAX has lost the correlation (because of Ukraine, IMO)... I have just read an article comparing the two markets that makes higher highs - US and Japan market, with other markets. 2 Countries For Old Bulls Summary The bulls are off and running once again
yep, US equities last best refuge for the yieldseekers, not to change until Fed Fear sets in, perhaps hard dropping oil could put a chill on things, not sure there. Probably best bet is Fed Dec meeting, maybe they push the rate raise, maybe they will, we'll see...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,868
  • Nov 13, 2014 11:50am Nov 13, 2014 11:50am
Quoting hope4charles
hello fool I am interested in binary and thanks to God I meet you, I am very new in binary or option trading so I need guidance please can you or any one come to my rescue? please hit me up thanks
Sorry, Bud, we are trading equity and futures options here, not binaries. I think there are some other threads on FF that focus on binary options trading. Good luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,869
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:19pm Nov 13, 2014 2:19pm
Another flat day for the SnP. Almost 2 weeks gone in November, mostly sideways action, SnP crept up an average of <0.1% per day. I say shit or get off the pot, SnP!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,870
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:27pm Nov 13, 2014 2:27pm
Yow, oyul <$74.50, no wonder Putin is wiggin out. Can we see sub $70?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,871
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:42pm Nov 13, 2014 2:42pm
Hi TF.

I didn't trade anything today... was looking for some ER's action, but I don't like none of the stocks AND their options (SINA, YOKU, AMAT, JWN).

I don't have any directional bias on them, but I was looking at JWN put butterfly out of curiosity, 67.50/70/72.50 Nov... I see there is some volume on that butterfly, for $0.34 debit. Low POP with short strikes at lower edge of EM. I will just watch how it will behave tomorrow... I don't have cojones for retailers.

Lot to learn just watching some of my former trades or some combos / options... For example, I didn't had the balls for LNKD ER's, but I still keep that 160/240 Nov strangle on my platform, and once a day I look at option prices and IV. That strangle was a loser a day after ER's, since LNKD smashed EM to the upside... It was $2.60 credit on 10/30, but now it is under $1.00.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,872
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:47pm Nov 13, 2014 2:47pm
Quoting The Fool
Yow, oyul <$74.50, no wonder Putin is wiggin out. Can we see sub $70?
Maybe.

I wonder is this a buyable dip on BABA? It is down today because of bond offering, but these things have short term effect on wanted stocks...
With bigger account I would think of shorting a 105 Dec put, for $2.00 credit. B/E on $103...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,873
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:50pm Nov 13, 2014 2:50pm
Quoting StrayDog
Hi TF. I didn't trade anything today...
Whattup, SDog? I am babysitting trades, none doing much good, too much flatline action. Seems like consolidation setting up for a big break - I'd guess down, but could be wrong. US politics may heat up and spook the stock market, idk. A break down needs some kind of catalyst. I thought maybe they would have found alien radio station on that comet, but no... Well, something will happen, eventually. My UVXY bull put spread is looking safer, just need to ride that out until next week. I hate being on the bubble on something like UVXY, because the spreads are so sorry.

Anyway, I sure would like to see some long red candles, no telling when that will be, but we are so overdue.....trade safe, amigo.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,874
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:53pm Nov 13, 2014 2:53pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Maybe. I wonder is this a buyable dip on BABA? It is down today because of bond offering, but these things have short term effect on wanted stocks... With bigger account I would think of shorting a 105 Dec put, for $2.00 credit. B/E on $103...
BABA, AAPL, a few others keep grinding the markets upwards. BABA fotm diag debit call spreads could be a play, I just don't like the wide strikes. But BABA looks like another NFLX.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,875
  • Nov 13, 2014 3:01pm Nov 13, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting The Fool
... Anyway, I sure would like to see some long red candles, no telling when that will be, but we are so overdue.....trade safe, amigo.
Yeah, no aliens... I am babysitting cash, not too keen to risk anything now, happy for 4-in-a-row winning trades, plus one really small winner on TWTR that I should just leave for theta decay to do its job... I have only some VIX call debit spreads which are in the land of pain, with good chance of expiring worthless. Manage to salvage something buy selling lower strikes, and now instead of $4 wide - 16/20, I have $2 wide spread - 16/18...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,876
  • Nov 13, 2014 11:30pm Nov 13, 2014 11:30pm
oh man, I should never have gone to Brazil. PBR. A major holding of EWZ. PBR's earnings were due out a week or so ago. But they did not release - the auditor (PWC - PriceWaterhouseCooper) was pressuring them to fire one or more upper level company people who were implicated in fraud and/or other criminal activity. So, they said they were working on that and that they would release the ER by tomorrow - which is the deadline for them to do it anyway. You know, I'm sure, that the SEC requires publically-traded companies to release these ERs quarterly, and if you fail to do that by the deadline then they will suspend trading for 10 days, and if you fail beyond that, you face being delisted. And so, voila, that's where we're at: PBR comes out late today and says they won't release an audited ER, that PWC won't sign off on it.

PBR traded right around $10 at the close today. I saw somebody bought $2mio worth of Jan '16 $10 calls this morning. They might have got in cheaper tomorrow. Watching for a large drop in the morning on PBR and on EWZ, as well. I would not touch PBR now - Holy Smokes they might get delisted! But EWZ will still be around, just trading lower starting tomorrow...

Still time for something to get resolved tomorrow, maybe....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-13_pbr.png Size: 124 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,877
  • Nov 14, 2014 8:46am Nov 14, 2014 8:46am
Quoting The Fool
.... And so, voila, that's where we're at: PBR comes out late today and says they won't release an audited ER, that PWC won't sign off on it. PBR traded right around $10 at the close today. ....
I am just reading about all of that...

Petrobras Slumps as Kickback Probe Delays Earnings Report

Stock is falling like a brick...

What Will Petrobras Look Like After This Scandal?

Petrobras (PBR) Former Director Ensnared in Corruption Case
Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) declined Friday on reports former director of engineering Renato Duque was arrested along with 26 others in connection with a money laundering and kickback scheme. Yesterday Petrobras delayed its Q3 earning release due to issues involving internal and external probes on alleged corruption. Its release in now expected on December 12.

Really heavy shit...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,878
  • Nov 14, 2014 9:15am Nov 14, 2014 9:15am
Quoting StrayDog
Really heavy shit...
yup. I will be watching, might be worth a lottery ticket shot - PBR was trading at $20+ just a month ago....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,879
  • Nov 14, 2014 9:49am Nov 14, 2014 9:49am
woohoo another flatlining day...I shoulda sold some SPY straddles....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,880
  • Edited 10:36am Nov 14, 2014 10:22am | Edited 10:36am
Quoting The Fool
woohoo another flatlining day...I shoulda sold some SPY straddles....
Yeah. Nothing going on... Waiting for 11/19 and FOMC Meeting Minutes?

I see increase in BABA IVR... using time to learn. Did you watched this video? It is from yesterday, I suppose you get tastytrade emails, like me.

-------------------------------------
Theta Vs. Max Profit

Tom Preston joins Liz & Jenny today on Calling All Millionaires, and they discuss a different way of viewing your portfolio.
--------------------------------------

Very interesting discussion, and some talking about margin accounts, portfolio margin accounts - comparing margin for SPY put selling, and then some talks about large IRA accounts. Also, TP explained how is that margin on PM acc calculated... Yeah... on regular margin account selling SPY Dec 199 put requires $3,500+ but on PM account only $1,000...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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