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Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator

  • #301
  • Oct 9, 2014 10:27pm Oct 9, 2014 10:27pm
Quoting seanwg
Some stops for sure sprang today... $84.06 low? Is this the end!!
It is certainly a bit of concern if your bullish or holding longs. Next support past $84 is something like 80.60ish but even that support base is pretty meek considering the falls. If you look at the big falls over the past fews, when there is a sell off it moves fast and deep.

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  • #302
  • Oct 9, 2014 11:06pm Oct 9, 2014 11:06pm
Crude, when it turns... its violent.

I've got some long option "hedges" from NFP, that are super in the red. Now that we are below $84 they can turn into infinity!

Stupid greed.

I should have closed them when I closed the shorts I... or hedged cheaply then!!
  • #303
  • Oct 9, 2014 11:27pm Oct 9, 2014 11:27pm
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  • #304
  • Oct 11, 2014 6:14am Oct 11, 2014 6:14am
Quoting mahk90
Hi all, i'm going through my fair share of sleepless nights in trying to be a competent trader. is anyone having any luck trading crude oil using price action but with an indicator to help confirm entries and exits. Thanks in Advance MAHK
Hi mahk,

i'm not sure if u found what u were looking for, i hope so. As for myself, i gave up intraday trading...i don't have the inclination nor the time to be glued to my screens for a few pips, nor do i have a desire to willingly increase my stress levels by raising my lots above my comfort zone in order to increase my daily take.

So i use a very simple method over a longer holding period, from days to weeks. i know people say that technicals and chart reading doesn't work here ...that one should watch fundamentals, the various war mongering going on, storage capacity, rumours, etc...etc...with respect to those who hold that view...i don't care what people say...i care what my reading of my charts say...period...as an example, see Weekly Chart below.

Briefly,
...below follows one variation of what i do,
...i glance at the Weekly Chart to get an idea of the general direction of price over the past several weeks,
...to further clarify direction, i employ a 5 & 10b EMA
...the MACD in the bottom pane is use as an aid of when to close a trade, its not necessary but i like it so i have it on my charts.
...once trend is established, i enter either long or short with a lot size that i am comfortable with,
...then i let the trend takes it course.
Attached Image
  • #305
  • Oct 11, 2014 9:21am Oct 11, 2014 9:21am
Quoting sunshine
{quote} Hi mahk, i'm not sure if u found what u were looking for, i hope so. As for myself, i gave up intraday trading...i don't have the inclination nor the time to be glued to my screens for a few pips, nor do i have a desire to willingly increase my stress levels by raising my lots above my comfort zone in order to increase my daily take. So i use a very simple method over a longer holding period, from days to weeks. i know people say that technicals and chart reading doesn't work here ...that one should watch fundamentals, the various war mongering...

Hi Sunshine. Your broker allows you to hold positions for weeks. Most brokers close positions at exparation date of contracts. One contract - one month. My broker takes the swap. It was great surprise for me and a little bit shock(on the picture) Now I dont hold position more than few days
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  • #306
  • Oct 16, 2014 3:25am Oct 16, 2014 3:25am
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10...from-75-to-80/


In scrutinizing the following chart, I think the possibility of crude oil prices stabilizing from 75 to 80 is very high. Moreover, based on history, Crude Oil prices tend to rebound when it touched the said support zone.
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...g?w=1028&h=510
Besides, as we all know, decline of oil prices also impact the performance of oil exploration/production and services companies. Here, I posted two ETF charts: XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explor & Product and OIH Market Vectors Oil Services ETF.

  1. XOP The S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index represents the oil and gas exploration and production sub-industry portion of the S&P Total Markets Index. The S&P TMI tracks all the U.S. common stocks listed on the NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ National Market and NASDAQ Small Cap exchanges. The Oil & Gas Exploration Index is an equal weighted market cap index
  2. OIH The Index is a rules based index intended to track the overall performance of 25 of the largest U.S. listed, publicly traded oil service companies.

Both charts show that both indexes approaching its respective support zone. So, in theory, the indexes may stabilizing in the zone. Of course, I dont eliminate the possibility of breaking below the support zone if the oil prices continue to decline.
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...g?w=1028&h=516
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...g?w=1028&h=516

  • #307
  • Oct 16, 2014 4:36am Oct 16, 2014 4:36am
Quoting clc4x
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10...from-75-to-80/ In scrutinizing the following chart, I think the possibility of crude oil prices stabilizing from 75 to 80 is very high. Moreover, based on history, Crude Oil prices tend to rebound when it touched the said support zone. {image} Besides, as we all know, decline of oil prices also impact the performance of oil exploration/production and services companies. Here, I posted two ETF charts: XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explor & Product...
Very nice
  • #308
  • Oct 17, 2014 12:25am Oct 17, 2014 12:25am
[quote=clc4x;7804779]http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10...from-75-to-80/ In scrutinizing the following chart, I think the possibility of crude oil prices stabilizing from 75 to 80 is very high. Moreover, based on history, Crude Oil prices tend to rebound when it touched the said support zone.

Good review, thanks.... I also think we are at potential support levels and for those also interested in stock asset investment some oil related stocks are currently good value.
  • #309
  • Oct 25, 2014 2:25am Oct 25, 2014 2:25am
We have the flat or possible triangle on the bottom. Main price levels to be broken 80 and 82.50. Targets 67 and 95
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  • #310
  • Oct 25, 2014 2:34am Oct 25, 2014 2:34am
Loaded the boat in long positions on this baby. Not only is it a good price but I am getting great interest off holding a long.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #311
  • Oct 31, 2014 10:02am Oct 31, 2014 10:02am
$79.10 WTI going to hold today??
  • #312
  • Nov 7, 2014 3:09pm Nov 7, 2014 3:09pm
If you want a strategy that work well for trading Oil (Brent & WTI) in intraday check Trading Made Simple http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=291622
  • #313
  • Nov 9, 2014 8:24am Nov 9, 2014 8:24am
Forex Factory has a great calendar telling us the potential impact of certain economic news. Does anyone know if there is a calendar for futures / commodities that tell us which have the highest impact on movement? Can't seem to find one anywhere.
  • #314
  • Nov 11, 2014 11:51am Nov 11, 2014 11:51am
looks like a nice double bottom on hourly in the weekly support zone ... worth a try going long for me ...
  • #315
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:40pm Nov 11, 2014 10:40pm
Too many fundamentals working against it until production is cut... Bear! Until at least 27th meeting
  • #316
  • Nov 12, 2014 12:17am Nov 12, 2014 12:17am
Quoting toncuz
Forex Factory has a great calendar telling us the potential impact of certain economic news. Does anyone know if there is a calendar for futures / commodities that tell us which have the highest impact on movement? Can't seem to find one anywhere.
Most news have no impact on oil. Now, the main fundamental news are the russian agression in Ukraine. Till the troops in Ukraine, the price will fall, in order to cut the russian earnings/ BTW the sunctions against the energy sector (GAZPROM, ROSNEFT)
  • #317
  • Nov 12, 2014 3:40am Nov 12, 2014 3:40am
got out of my long at 78.20 last night which was just short of the high.
trying long again on the key-reversal at level on the 15M chart at 77.53, not going exactly my way for the moment but I got a tight stop ...
  • #318
  • Nov 12, 2014 3:56am Nov 12, 2014 3:56am
and there goes the stop
  • #319
  • Nov 12, 2014 4:30am Nov 12, 2014 4:30am
hourly doji, 15M looks like another try to me
  • #320
  • Nov 12, 2014 5:45am Nov 12, 2014 5:45am
moving stop to 77.40
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