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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #50,921
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:27am Nov 11, 2014 8:27am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I know the secret already - preserve cap. + ME I will read what you have posted.
thank you. on ww table, i remb the last time i posted on this to you but i used images in my post. the table info is a quick glance on the attack, defend and turn wind. it shows you the strength of different skew. if you worked out the rescue maths, you will arrive at the same table. try and do that.

in rescue, if you expect market to retrace only 5%, what is the ratio of rescue troops to your current number of troops trapped to BE?
how about 10%? how about 25%? how about 38.2%? how about 61.8%?

in attack, if you expect that if market retraces by 50% from the current px, it means that the move is false and you want out at BE, what is the attack ratio to current number of troops?

how about turn wind?

how about position avg after taking profit by spiralling in with a fixed ratio?

0.618 is special, note 0.618 ratio to 61.8% retrace
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #50,922
  • Edited 8:49am Nov 11, 2014 8:33am | Edited 8:49am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} thank you. on ww table, i remb the last time i posted on this to you but i used images in my post. the table info is a quick glance on the attack, defend and turn wind. it shows you the strength of different skew. if you worked out the rescue maths, you will arrive at the same table. try and do that. in rescue, if you expect market to retrace only 5%, what is the ratio of rescue troops to your current number of troops trapped to BE? how about 10%? how about 25%? how about 38.2%? how about 61.8%? in attack, if you expect that if market retraces...
try not do spreadsheet. One will become rigid.
use brain with terrain reads.
if you use spreadsheet robots can id your strategic respondse.
becomes predictable.

There are many ways impliment strategys. The spreadsheet reads can only tell you whats necessary.
If you train properly you not need maths, spread sheet becomes thoughts distracting from the now.

Also what you mentioned invokes bias. you planning respondse with expectation of future events outcomes.
In real life, is not like that, is a contineous flow. You may want use the spread sheet plan. But i find that gets in way when real movements occuring.
rigidity blocks the execute and respondse change. If adhered to steadfastly, one will be responding to events on lag basis , same as averages.
and when on respondse one not considers if the expectations is totally out. Instead of cutting away a counter trend err. one would be inclined add to worstening situation. Can become dangerous habit.

The brain once have trained skills and strategic necessaries, it works at lighting speed.
Much faster than any mechanical methodology.
In fact you will find your brain knows exactly what necessary respondse faster than you can speak it.

regards
  • #50,923
  • Edited 8:51am Nov 11, 2014 8:38am | Edited 8:51am
Quoting fti
{quote} try not do spreadsheet. One will become rigid. use brain with terrain reads. if you use spreadsheet robots can id your strategic respondse. becomes predictable. regards
hey fti, thanks for pointing this out. when i was still early on this thread, i was trying to understand the maths behind it and this is what i have worked out.
and as you rightly pointed out many times, rigidity kills. and after a period of training, i have already thrown the training wheels away, i dont use spreadsheet when i trade. i only remb the key figures that i always used which is fibo and pi and use them as guesstimate of where i am, how far away is the target and roughly how much cushion i have and using these guestimate to strategize my next steps.

the purpose of bringing out the table is to discuss what it is and hopefully alexandria can take something away from it

yes, i can see that there are lots bias with what i mentioned. and you have rightly pointed out the pitfall in my examples. however, that is to show alex how to use it with some examples and I am of the view that you probably understood my intentions. so just wanted to let you know I am aware of these things and it was good that you have pointed out so as to prevent news peeps from getting the wrong idea.

the dance dictates what i do with the MM instead of MM dictating what I do with the dance.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #50,924
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:42am Nov 11, 2014 8:42am
It was swis!!!!!! he did a blunder, even can't got Address bar warning!!!!!!! 4tiger
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #50,925
  • Edited 9:36am Nov 11, 2014 8:54am | Edited 9:36am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} hey fti, thanks for pointing this out. when i was still early on this thread, i was trying to understand the maths behind it and this is what i have worked out. and as you rightly pointed out many times, rigidity kills. and after a period of training, i have already thrown the training wheels away, i dont use spreadsheet when i trade. i only remb the key figures that i always used which is fibo and pi and use them as guesstimate of where i am, how far away is the target and roughly how much cushion i have and using these guestimate to strategize...
noted. Thanks for sharing.
The maths is correct. I just wanted highlight the pitfalls mechanically using it.

For newbies they can use that as guide.
When they have internalised then is easy ABC. The mind takes over.

In fact if cost is in range, errs or jumping skews has minimal effects. One knows minimum skew is a fibo. In fact in an attack scenario would be > than a double martingale. If cost was out of range, snowballing can kill book unless one have access to unlimited capital.Anyway , this not rocket science, mostly any dealer knows , only many retail newbies not aware. I find is reason why some gets killed by volitility. no money management and tolerance limits.

Is good i see you understand much already.

regards
  • #50,926
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:21am Nov 11, 2014 9:21am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I know the secret already - preserve cap. + ME I will read what you have posted.
whats the secrets?

Inserted Video


regards
  • #50,927
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:27am Nov 11, 2014 9:27am
Hmnn - I have not been using pi - just working out myself as I go. Not sure what is being said here. Need to read and work out.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #50,928
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:30am Nov 11, 2014 9:30am
Quoting alexandria
Hmnn - I have not been using pi - just working out myself as I go. Not sure what is being said here. Need to read and work out.
noted.

regards
  • #50,929
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:34am Nov 11, 2014 9:34am
The secret is "very simple" but still secret!!!!!!! at some point every trader come to that eurica point!!!!!!!!!!!!!
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #50,930
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:38am Nov 11, 2014 9:38am
Quoting priceaction1
The secret is "very simple" but still secret!!!!!!! at some point every trader come to that eurica point!!!!!!!!!!!!!
whats said on open forum secret.

ok ok next time i go open toilets.

do secret things. ai yaa

This world so full of secrets.
everytime i see peeps go into one of these is no secret, quantitative easing.

regards
Attached Image
  • #50,931
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:02am Nov 11, 2014 10:02am
Quoting priceaction1
The secret is "very simple" but still secret!!!!!!! at some point every trader come to that eurica point!!!!!!!!!!!!!

now read this way. secret is ( to be remain) "very simple" ( even naked that is nature). as close to nature as good.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #50,932
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:23am Nov 11, 2014 10:23am
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} now read this way. secret is ( to be remain) "very simple" ( even naked that is nature). as close to nature as good.
ok very quaLItative ease.
maybe is wrong day speak to me. today i belly happy.

is market want go moon yet?
today i outscalping my normal self.
Is dangerous when i get feeling. I can control this yoyo.
This imortality feeling always comes before the big bang.

regards

Inserted Video
  • #50,933
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:25am Nov 11, 2014 10:25am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} thank you. on ww table
Let me break this down bit at a time:
Need to get head round what being said a bit....

fib: 1 1 2 3 5 8 13.....

each fib number is 1.618 of prior fib

if I have 4 men in ( 2 1 1) * 0.618 = 2.4 --> 3

if I have 12 men in (5 3 2 1 1) * 0.618 = 7.4 --> 8

if I have 20 men in ( 8 5 3 2 1 1) * 0.618 = 12.36 --> 13

so need think BE now?
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #50,934
  • Nov 12, 2014 2:51am Nov 12, 2014 2:51am
CFTC Orders Five Banks to Pay over $1.4B in Penalties for Attempted Manipulation of Foreign Exchange Benchmark Rates. FTI please say about this.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...96#post7864477
  • #50,935
  • Nov 12, 2014 4:07am Nov 12, 2014 4:07am
Checking in .
  • #50,936
  • Nov 12, 2014 6:40am Nov 12, 2014 6:40am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} hey cookie, to me, price action or the dance is everything about how traders from professional to the ants works, the strategy they used, reading the order flows, looking at the mkt depth and time sales. if no market depth or time sales, its about reading the tick chart, or as fti has found decent for fx - the 5min chart, larger time frame chart has loss of data because you cant see how the price moved or how it "danced", fti has pointed out the problem of larger time frame before. what you ahve pointed out is just one strategy that the...
hi jacque,

yes i think gann was talking about price action, but i don't think his method was purely price action, he watches for the general conditions too.
you remember how fti was talking about how the big boys are thinking when the fundamentals are pricing in? like the news and numbers release, we do not trade before these numbers release, and we see the reaction to how much long or short interest they generate too, say we get a bullish news, but the long interest was so weak, we might prepare to short once pa shows it going down with momentum. we maybe thinking how the big boys may act, but we want to see it happen on the charts before we act on it so as to get confirmation that yes, it was correct.

well i haven't thought much about the diamond theory, but i am guessing that when you look inside a diamond, you can see many smaller diamonds inside, so when you pyramid such that the market is far enough for you to have a good cushion on your trade, you might increase your attack on a higher level skew, but i don't really have any number or skew to show for it, i just buy more as it goes my direction, and take some out as i feel it might be OB, then buy more when it is OS. i mean its kind of like an extension of myself, as i see nice long legs, i buy more, i see choppy move maybe i take some out and see how, i see it slow i buy slow and lesser, if i see it turning already, i can change and up my scout's initial position size a little bit more with foreign cap and hit it a little harder when it is changing since i have booked foreign cap from the previous campaign to support me.

as for the, store owner example, yep, the store owner is only interested in making a spread, but whether it is a firesale or not depends on what is the actual reason for it not selling at 5 dollars, because if it is good to sell at 2 dollars, while i can buy at 1.90, i would be interested in buying more and selling to average my losses, as there is actual demand for it, but i bought it at too high a price, while if i take an outright loss, it is $3 down the drain while the situation is salvageable. however, if it was because few people wants to buy it, i would just fire sale it, that is sales volume is low.

well i thought of another way to speculate a non directional trade, its to buy a 3 months long straddle, while buying a 1 month long butterfly to finance the long straddle and using the time decay to work in my favour, so sort of theta hedge to my long straddle, maybe at the end of the 3months, i get enough short theta to generate an income, while if the markets just crashes, well ill be making a huge amount of money, so i created this because im working and i want to be exposed to black swan events in a good way, that is if the markets are working in normal conditions, ill make average returns, but if the markets are in abnormal conditions and i cannot know it before hand since i have no crystal ball, i can simply be exposed to it in a good way, and when i recognize it after the fact, ill be happily celebrating
  • #50,937
  • Nov 12, 2014 9:35am Nov 12, 2014 9:35am
http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topst...nes/ar-AA7IsJQ

Five big banks hit with $3.2bn forex rigging fines

see link above,

loveandpeace.
  • #50,938
  • Nov 12, 2014 10:14pm Nov 12, 2014 10:14pm
where are u FTI. we are waiting for your replay.
regards
  • #50,939
  • Nov 13, 2014 1:14am Nov 13, 2014 1:14am
Quoting fxmusa
where are u FTI. we are waiting for your replay. regards
Hi Fxmusa

he has a problem he is trying to sort out, be patient he will back as soon as he has fixed/sorted it out.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #50,940
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:35am Nov 13, 2014 2:35am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} thank you. on ww table, i remb the last time i posted on this to you but i used images in my post. the table info is a quick glance on the attack,
Hi - am working on what you said - not fully studied the implications of the fibo progressions before.

But to anyone else fib. prog. is like a calculator (sort of) but it is not set in stone - you have to adjust to terrain always - no rigidity - cap. you and market.

Thanks Jacque for pointing me to this area.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
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