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5 PIPS - Only Five

  • #641
  • Nov 11, 2014 7:33am Nov 11, 2014 7:33am
EU +10 TS. Looking to short the EU to stay "with the Trend" there is a bit in the way. Where as a long had a lot of supporting factors, Div with Pin Bar at confluence of S&R and BRN. My TS was taken for +10 other wise +20 was available.
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Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #642
  • Nov 11, 2014 7:48am Nov 11, 2014 7:48am
Quoting sardinian
{quote} Yes I agree, but I suppose we need an Volatility indicator for properly define take the profit (why always 5?) and stop loss.
If I recall correctly, Tk5 has discussed his views on stop loss and I'm not sure he trades with a stop loss in place - if the trade doesn't go your way, stop out and wait for the next trade setup. If you feel the need for a stop loss, maybe do 15 points. If you're stopped out, you just need 3 positive trades to recover. That's why we say it's crucial to wait and be patient rather than taking every single trade when the HA changes color.
No Trend, No Trade!!
  • #643
  • Nov 11, 2014 7:55am Nov 11, 2014 7:55am
TK5, just a suggestion: it may be useful to update your first post with the 200EMA precision and the use of RSI, so that everything appears in the first post. Then you can just point people back to the first post again and again and they would not be surprised to see where their setups were wrong.
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #644
  • Nov 11, 2014 7:57am Nov 11, 2014 7:57am
Quoting dee50
EU +10 TS. Looking to short the EU to stay "with the Trend" there is a bit in the way. Where as a long had a lot of supporting factors, Div with Pin Bar at confluence of S&R and BRN. My TS was taken for +10 other wise +20 was available. {image}
Why buy under EMA200 ? Only divergence signal?
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  • #645
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:02am Nov 11, 2014 8:02am
The undeniable logic of profit: you can only make a profit from breakeven into your favour -- a wider stop may make you feel better for longer, but will definitely reduce your risk-reward and ruin your trader's equation. That's why you keep hearing "cut your losers, run your winners". If your initial stop is very tight, like 3-5 pips, and you tighten to BE after 2-3 pips in favour, you may well be profitable with just 30 pct expectancy if you get 3-5R multiple reward in a third of your entries (10-25 pip), which is very realistic intraday. A 5 pip profit would be the minimal 1R multiple, which is still fine, most entries would be scratch/stopout near BE or partial profit at 5 pip, and you get some stopouts right away, but then you get a little swing run once every few attempts and it makes up very well for all your small losses and scratches. When a strong tend emerges, holding to 50 pips for a 10R multiple is realistic.

I'm still working on my system, or rather on my ability to implement it and not break the rules (and still struggling with discipline and psychology).

Volatility is not an issue here, it's even better -- in high volatility, you just need to act faster, be more selective of your entry locations and increase your swing profit targets. I'd just not agree with Tk5 on using no stops, even in slow conditions -- that is just unthinkable -- one big unexpected 40 pip swing against your entry would leave you badly in the red and kill eight winners, not a good idea... And what if your 5-MA breakout were the kickoff of a slow multiday trend against you...
"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #646
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:03am Nov 11, 2014 8:03am
kubiasty..... you are right, dunno what these others guys are upset about, that is countertrend yes, but that is what we call a double bottom, if you are going to go countertrend that would be a safe place to do it, the trade is pretty much gone at this point, but longs look much better than shorts to me this morning countertrend or not. obviously its risky to go against trend but when you see setups like that its pretty good chance you could get 20 pips +.
  • #647
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:21am Nov 11, 2014 8:21am
Quoting srmiller82
kubiasty..... you are right, dunno what these others guys are upset about, that is countertrend yes, but that is what we call a double bottom, if you are going to go countertrend that would be a safe place to do it, the trade is pretty much gone at this point, but longs look much better than shorts to me this morning countertrend or not. obviously its risky to go against trend but when you see setups like that its pretty good chance you could get 20 pips +.
Thank you.
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #648
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:23am Nov 11, 2014 8:23am
Quoting srmiller82
kubiasty..... you are right, dunno what these others guys are upset about, that is countertrend yes, but that is what we call a double bottom, if you are going to go countertrend that would be a safe place to do it, the trade is pretty much gone at this point, but longs look much better than shorts to me this morning countertrend or not. obviously its risky to go against trend but when you see setups like that its pretty good chance you could get 20 pips +.
Agree, wouldn't have taken the trade in the down trend - but then we're not all familiar with double tops and bottoms and all the other stuff that indicates good trades.
No Trend, No Trade!!
  • #649
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:30am Nov 11, 2014 8:30am
Quoting Slingshot500
{quote} Agree, wouldn't have taken the trade in the down trend - but then we're not all familiar with double tops and bottoms and all the other stuff that indicates good trades.

No problem just saying dee's trade look good to me, not saying i wouldnt have taken a short before the bottom, but after it was looking good for long.
  • #650
  • Edited 8:50am Nov 11, 2014 8:33am | Edited 8:50am
Bulls seem to have established a channel in EU and have incentives to take profits by now (around 30 pip), but the question is whether strong bears will be stepping in right now? To me it looks a bit like a parabolic channel trending up in steps that could break out above the High of the Day. Sellers may be lurking a bit higher -- will be watching for price action confirmation around 1.245 to reverse to Short. Alternatively, even that short could be a bear trap and set up a Long for a high momentum spike to 1.2485, to test the 4-hour / Daily trendline.
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"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #651
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:45am Nov 11, 2014 8:45am
Quoting Slingshot500
{quote} Agree, wouldn't have taken the trade in the down trend - but then we're not all familiar with double tops and bottoms and all the other stuff that indicates good trades.
At the end of the day, it is not just cross of M5, Heiken etc. One must have deeper knowledge and understanding. Today, many MA setups have gone bad and only deeper understanding may have worked better. I say "may" as the "deeper understanding" is still very highly subjective. Money management with understanding is what is needed.
  • #652
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:45am Nov 11, 2014 8:45am
Quoting StopRunFx
Bulls seem to have established a channel in EU and have incentives to take profits by now (around 30 pip), but the question is whether strong bears will be stepping in right now? To me it looks a bit like a parabolic channel trending up in steps that could break out above the High of the Day. Sellers may be lurking a bit higher -- will be watching for price action confirmation around 1.245 to reverse to Short. Alternatively, even that short could be a bear trap and set up a Long for a high momentum spike to 1.2485.
Nothing to do with this thread. Please post in the EUR/USD thread.
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #653
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:07am Nov 11, 2014 9:07am
Quoting jakucha
{quote} Nothing to do with this thread. Please post in the EUR/USD thread.
Convergence, divergence, confluence, price action, double tops, double bottoms, Pin Bar, S&R, BRN, reference to other indicators, time of the day, and other things are brought into discussion as reasons to take or not to take the basic MA/HA setups. Perhaps other elements introduced for discussion should therefore also be tolerated.
  • #654
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:31am Nov 11, 2014 9:31am
DONE FOR DE DAY! 4 trades, 4 wins!

very thanks tk5!
Attached Image
  • #655
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:42am Nov 11, 2014 9:42am
Quoting Clipi
DONE FOR DE DAY! 4 trades, 4 wins! very thanks tk5! {image}
Nice..
  • #656
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:44am Nov 11, 2014 9:44am
Quoting sardinian
Hi mates Did somebody tested strategy with lower profit < 5 pips, in lower time frame and in lower SL (5 M, 1 M) ? p.s. Not easy today for me...
I watch M1 and M3 to confirm trend and watch for correction.
  • #657
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:48am Nov 11, 2014 9:48am
Have I missed something here? Where have all Tk5's charts gone, there is only 1 chart now and that is on page 1. What happened to all the others? For example

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post7851476
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #658
  • Nov 11, 2014 11:25am Nov 11, 2014 11:25am
Quoting dee50
Have I missed something here? Where have all Tk5's charts gone, there is only 1 chart now and that is on page 1. What happened to all the others? For example http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post7851476

Maybe cause they were not posted inside the post as pics but hosted somewhere else and linked to.
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #659
  • Nov 11, 2014 11:31am Nov 11, 2014 11:31am
Quoting jakucha
{quote} Maybe cause they were not posted inside the post as pics but hosted somewhere else and linked to.
Yeah, that must be it.
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #660
  • Nov 11, 2014 11:34am Nov 11, 2014 11:34am
Looks like I got it wrong again today.

Good Luck to you all.
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Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
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