Investing Academy Trading&Money Management Courses

NZD/USD still holding some bullish momentum
While the Dollar has been rallying against pretty much anything, the NZD seems to be holding its own in a fairly impressive manner. Looking at current price action on the 4hourly, the pair has been trading in a descending channel, it's currently at support, while momentum has maintained a fairly neutral structure diverging from price. All this suggests that the pair may be getting ready to bounce back to the mid consolidation level. We'd be looking for the candle to close as a hammer to further verify this scenario.

GBP/USD Long-Term Outlook
The cable has been fairly resilient in the last coupled of days in the face of the big dollar rally. The pair is process of retesting the 50% fib, on the back of bouncing from the 1.5800 supportive zone. With strong bullish divergence to back it, we'd be looking for the pair to break the descending trend-line and the 50 SMA for bullish confirmation. Fundamentally, the pound is the one who may benefit from rate hikes before the dollar does, which may support a bullish continuation in the pair.

AUD/NZD Kumo Breakout+Retest on the 4 Hourly
The AUD/NZD has broken out of the kumo to the donwside, it has since retested the kumo, with the teknan-sen acting as resistance. This coupled with a thick bearish kumo cloud future, and RSI 40 level looking like resistance for momentum purposes, we're interested in shorting the pair at around the 1.1100 handle, aiming for an extended move downwards, we'd be looking to exit the trade on a kijun break to the upside.

I agree with your analysis up to a certain point: you didn't mentioned anything about the targeting (any value?), because on the daily the price is sitting just over the Senkou Span A resistance and any short from this point could be limited and short lived, any comments on that?

You're quite correct that there's some support on the daily. However, notice that we may be looking at a triple top formation, which is backed by bearish divergence, with kumo support being at its weakest point, a breakout is certainly possible. That's what generally happens with trend reversals, the entry shows up in the shorter time-frame prior to the longer one, which leaves you the choice of trying to enter the new trend early, or to wait for confirmation on the longer timeframe. I think in an instance like this both alternatives are certainly viable, I'd generally lean to jumping in earlier with a tight enough stop such as 4hour RSI breaking the 40 line, but I think the more conservative approach of waiting for a daily kumo breakout will provide you a much higher probability of a winning trade, so I agree with your analysis.

Regarding the the triple top formation, I have some doubts on its correctness, I would prefer a more airly formation, like this double bottom:



The lows are still in an upper configuration, higher lows.



Secondly, the present divergence from the chart it's a classic bearish divergence, which is mostly found in corrections.



Regarding the kumo break, I've considered your approach more reliable: the one with the kumo break out.

Here's my view



The thing is you and me could bring countless arguments for sustaining our beliefe on how the price could evolve, we should rely on just few basic things when we do an analysis.

I think your analysis is spot on, it's certainly the best way to trade the daily at the moment, so if you're focusing on that timeframe I'd go with your plan, looks good.

EUR/USD 1h line-chart analysis
The EUR/USD is in a well defined down-trend. Sometimes, it's good to simplify your analysis with a line chart. By looking at the hourly line chart, we can see the pair's down-trend seems to obey the 61.8% retracement level as the key reversal/trend continuation area. We can also see that the RSI and slow stochastic have been at close to overbought levels on the highlighted occasions. Therefore, our current plan of action would be to look for a short at the 61.8% level of the previous down move, which comes up at about 1.24645 area, we also want RSI to be somewhere in the 60-70 area, and stochastic to be at 70-80 area. We can also use the 100 SMA as resistance for the purpose of this trade. If all of these conditions do indeed materialize, we are happy sellers on the 1 hour chart.

EUR/AUD Weekly Analysis for the Week of Nov. 10th-15th

The EUR/AUD seems to be consolidating for the last few months as indicated by the flatness of the 100 SMA (remember flat averages convey range trading in the market). It currently sits at a very interesting level, after breaking the kumo to the upside, the pair has since retested the kumo only to find strong support and bounce back up. It seems to be forming a bullish flag formation, with last week’s move possibly being the last sequence of impulsive bull move followed by corrective bear move prior to the big breakout move. This narrative will be strengthened if the RSI manages to maintain the 45-50 level as supportive, while the stochastic continues to point upwards. The move will also be supported by the 50-61.8 fib of the previous leg up, coupled with a thick bullish future kumo. Therefore, our plan of entry is rather straightforward, we’re looking to buy on a breakout and close above the descending flag trend-line and the kijun sen, coupled with tenkan kijun bullish crossover, as well as momentum confirmation from RSI and stochastics. Our profit target will be the May highs at around 1.500, which also coincide nicely with an ABCD formation from the September bull move, which by the way also retracted to the 50% fib line.

GBP/AUD Long Term Long
The GBP/AUD looks to be in a possible sequence for a big bull move. The pair has broken above the kumo and has since retested its upper level and found it supportive. It has also found the 38.2% fib retrace as support, and is now looking at a possible tenkan-kijun bullish crossover above the kumo. We're looking at RSI above 50, at a thick kumo future and 50 SMA sitting at the top of the cloud. We're looking to go long on the bullish crossover, aiming initially towards the 1.900 highs, and ultimately towards 1.94500 which will complete a picture perfect ABCD pattern.

Keeping things simple with EUR/USD trend following
While the trend in the EUR/USD remains intact, the current outlook on the 4hour looks bullish, with a significant bullish divergence on the RSI. This should be an opportunity to look for a point in which the trend may continue. Currently, we're looking at the 50% retracement of the previous impulsive down-move as a good candidate. We're looking for resistance from the flat upper kumo, coupled with the 100 SMA, and slow stochastic nearing overbought levels. If things allign, we'd be looking for the 1.214 handle as our main target, this would complete an ABCD pattern. Like most trend trading plans, we should have very good r&r on our trade.

Dollar may have to slow down for the next couple of weeks
The Dollar's rally has been impressive to say the least, looking at the weekly line chart, we can see the straight shoot up bull move of recent weeks. In terms of the technical outlook, the Dollar seems prime for a slowdown, looking at recent RSI overbought points, we can see that they proved quite significant. To add to that, price looks to be running into the current ascending channel resistance line. This all means to us that it may be time to lower some of our current exposure to the Dollar, it does not however change our overall bullish bias and outlook for the greenback.

AUD/NZD Looking for Kumo Breakout Trade on the Daily
The AUD/NZD is trading in a tight range this week, the pair looks to be unable to push back from the recent impulsive bear move. This type of sequence is often labeled as a bearish rectangle continuation pattern. We're looking at the sequence of shooting stars as a bearish indication coupled with sub 50 RSI level; a break and close below the cloud, below the ascending price trend-line and ascending RSI trend-line will be enough to trigger us short. Our initial target will be at around the 2 to 1 risk:reward at the 1.092 lows.

Recent Price Action Analaysis of the Cable
The GBP/USD is consolidating after another impulsive bearish move which wiped over half the gains of the corrective bull move in short order. We're interested sellers on a bearish break of the horizontal channel, which would also be a break of the 61.8% fib of the corrective bull move, providing further confirmation that the sellers are still in control of this market. On the other hand, if the pair does break higher, a break of the 1.5916 highs will signal that buyers may be getting ready to turn this pair around.

EUR/GBP range trade
The EUR/GBP is trading within a well defined range. As we can see, this range seems to be defined by lows that are formed by a small consolidation period, while the highs are sharper, with more of a V structure to them. We're currently trading towards the lower part of the horizontal channel, and so our plan of entry will be to look for a small period of consolidation in both price and the RSI, which will then allow us to set a long trigger just above the consolidation zone, with a stop loss under the channel, and a profit target at the upper part of the channel, making for solid r&r.

GBP/JPY looking for a corrective move to long from
The GBP/JPY is trading at recent highs, the momentum is looking very bullish indeed. We're interested buyers of this pair for both technical as well as fundamental reasons, however we feel that some corrective sequence is needed before the buyers will keep pushing towards the 185 handle. With that i mind, we're looking for a 382% correction of the previous bull move, at which point we would like to see some slight consolidation, enabling us to go long with some momentum, and with a tight stop. We're looking for the RSI 55 level not to be broken, and our target will be a completion of an ABCD pattern at around 185.5.

GBP/USD Breakout Trade
The GBP is at the center of attention today with some important news coming out as well as BoE Governor Carney Speech. The pair looks to be in the process of breaking to the upside, and we're buyers on a breakout, aiming for the 1.6 highs, with a stop just below the 1.5900 handle, making for solid r&r. We'd be following momentum as well on this trade, since it is aimed at being short-term, a significant cool down in momentum could make us exit early.

AUD/USD 1H Price Action Analysis
The AUD/USD is looking bullish, with the 38.2% retrace of the recent strong bull move holding up. We're buyers of the signified breakout, looking for another impulsive bull move to complete an ABCD pattern.

AUD/CAD SIMPLE PRICE ACTION SHORTING OPPORTUNITY
The AUD/CAD has taken 28 4H bars to recoup 50% of what it lost over the course of 4 Bearish 4H candles. This is a classic Impulsive-Corrective setup, we're happy to short this market, with a stop just above the 61.8% fib and an initial target around the 0.9700 handle.

NZD/USD shorting opportunity on the 4H
The NZD/USD is trading at the descending trend-line level. We're following the current candle, if it shows an exhaustion of the recent bull move we're interested sellers. We have outlined our plan of entry, with around 3:1 risk reward ratio on our trade.