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Simple "Make Pips" Strategy

  • #41
  • Nov 10, 2014 4:18am Nov 10, 2014 4:18am
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} so you risking for example 40 pips to get 20 pips on higher timeframe and have 60-70 percent win rate ? it is like this of 10 trades you win 6-7 120-140 pips and loose 120-160 depending on the win rate. Is this how i shall understand it or am i whrong somewhere ? Best regards
Hi,
Kindly spend a little more time to read. The risk reward I recommended for higher timeframes here is a minimum 1:2.
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  • #42
  • Nov 10, 2014 4:26am Nov 10, 2014 4:26am
Quoting mikeh3855
SHORT when there are TWO CONSECUTIVE BEARISH BARS and the SECOND closes WITH a LOWER CLOSE PRICE Do you mean that the second bar simply...

SHORT when there are TWO CONSECUTIVE BEARISH BARS and the SECOND closes WITH a LOWER CLOSE PRICE

Do you mean that the second bar simply needs to be another bearish bar? Or does the close need to be toward the low of the candle?

No, I had addressed this question in an earlier post. There must be two consecutive bearish bars AND the second MUST have a lower close price than the first. Remember than GAPS in the market price can permit a different picture, so this is important.

LONG when there are TWO CONSECUTIVE BULLISH BARS and the SECOND closes WITH a HIGHER CLOSE PRICE

Same question only for a long.

The WIN PROBABILITY is HIGHER when the CLOSE PRICES are NOT FAR APART.

​Please specify.. Close prices? There is one close price per bar. Do you mean close price is not far from the high or low or open of the current bar. Which is it?

Remember that we are essentially comparing two bars. So close prices is referring to the close price of each bar being compared.

Notes:

 

  1. It is best to wait for a little pullback if close prices are not very close.


​ A pullback to the open price? A pull back towards what exactly? I'm afraid I don't understand.
We are looking for an entry as close as possible to the CLOSE price of the first bar. The close price of the first bar is key because it creates support/resistance.

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  • #43
  • Nov 10, 2014 4:28am Nov 10, 2014 4:28am
Quoting eamaster
have you automated this? could you share us your code
Hi eamaster,

Unfortunately, I am not a coder. Hopefully a more able participant will afford us an EA for the system.
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  • #44
  • Nov 10, 2014 4:30am Nov 10, 2014 4:30am
Quoting ForexSamsam
I try this on my Backtester with EUR_USD TP must be greater than SL .. here my result with 5/7 pips for the last 3 month Maybe better result on low volatility ? {image}
Nice work ForexSamsam! Have you also tried on the H4 and daily?
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  • #45
  • Nov 10, 2014 4:37am Nov 10, 2014 4:37am
Quoting simoneg
Sell Limit Order on GBPJPY H4 {image}
Short positions currently +121 and +110pips.
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  • #46
  • Nov 10, 2014 4:39am Nov 10, 2014 4:39am
Quoting simoneg
Short EURJPY H4 {image}
stopped -35pips
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  • #47
  • Nov 10, 2014 10:35am Nov 10, 2014 10:35am
This is a very good system to lose your all money gently! I did a backtest for 6 months (EURUSD, H1), and I can surely claim that this strategy at the current state will ruin your deposit at the end of the day.
Trading is the hardest way to make easy money...
  • #48
  • Nov 10, 2014 10:42am Nov 10, 2014 10:42am
Quoting MathTrader7
This is a very good system to lose your all money gently! I did a backtest for 6 months (EURUSD, H1), and I can surely claim that this strategy at the current state will ruin your deposit at the end of the day.
Son there is an essential bit of information I see missing from the brilliant minds behind backtests. Realistically, no one would be trading every single hour, 24hours...no one trades in that way.
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  • #49
  • Nov 10, 2014 11:05am Nov 10, 2014 11:05am
i can't trade 24h per day... but my robot can..
  • #50
  • Nov 10, 2014 12:11pm Nov 10, 2014 12:11pm
Hi I think you can have a great system here but i think know one but you understands it, because what you have tell this far have made alot off confusion i think for all atleast for me. But i try to help you pulling out what you mean and the rules so we all can understand this. On the 1 hour you risk 10 pips to get 5 and have a high win rate on this that make this strategy a winner. On the higher timeframes you do the opposite here you risk 1 to get 2. Is this right understanded ?

Best regards
  • #51
  • Nov 10, 2014 5:16pm Nov 10, 2014 5:16pm
Quoting simoneg
{quote} Son there is an essential bit of information I see missing from the brilliant minds behind backtests. Realistically, no one would be trading every single hour, 24hours...no one trades in that way.
I will modify the EA to include time of trading filter. However, I doubt it help this strategy become a winner. If you have an ability to realize when to take a trade and when avoid a trade, then your strategy is subjective to your feelings and hence it is only good for you! Otherwise, please write down your strategy in a mechanical way so that every body can repeat what you are doing, and please avoid saying fuzzy things such as "It is best to wait for a little pullback if close prices are not very close."
Trading is the hardest way to make easy money...
  • #52
  • Nov 10, 2014 7:55pm Nov 10, 2014 7:55pm
I improve your strategy with a minimum candle height of 5 pips (2 consecutive candle of 5 pips)
I also add 5Minute SMA with timeperiod of 10. This for trend confirmation juste before enter.
I set a TP of 10pips and SL of 30pips.

Then this begin to become positif..

See my chart..

I get 71% success
and 29% loss

.71*15pips + .29*-30pips = 1.95pips average per trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #53
  • Nov 10, 2014 8:07pm Nov 10, 2014 8:07pm
Quoting simoneg
{quote} SHORT when there are TWO CONSECUTIVE BEARISH BARS and the SECOND closes WITH a LOWER CLOSE PRICE Do you mean that the second bar simply needs to be another bearish bar? Or does the close need to be toward the low of the candle? No, I had addressed this question in an earlier post. There must be two consecutive bearish bars AND the second MUST have a lower close price than the first. Remember than GAPS in the market price can permit a different picture, so this is important. LONG when there are TWO CONSECUTIVE BULLISH BARS and the SECOND...
Thank you.
  • #54
  • Nov 11, 2014 6:25am Nov 11, 2014 6:25am
Hi everyone,

Thank you for your input and feedback! ForexSamSam. Very nice work! Happy to see a bid to improve the system. I would love to see how the completed EA runs. 30/10 is rough though. It may be better to take a max of say 5 trades in less volatile periods so your stop is smaller. Don't know how or whether the EMA is the best idea. However forward testing will prove.

@MathTrader7 - Because you are looking through the eyes of a programmer, you are looking for a fixed set of rules. So maybe my advice to wait for pullback when close prices are far apart would seem fuzzy, but another approach is to convert subjective to non-subjective by saying for example, execute the trade if and only if close prices are no more than 5 pips apart.

@Mikeh3855 - You're welcome!
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  • #55
  • Nov 11, 2014 6:29am Nov 11, 2014 6:29am
Closed my GJ shorts for +63 and +52pips.

Bought EJ daily setup yesterday evening for nice overnight +104pips.
Bought GJ H4 setup yesterday evening for nice overnight +80pips.
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  • #56
  • Nov 11, 2014 7:04am Nov 11, 2014 7:04am
Quoting jgadefelth
Hi I think you can have a great system here but i think know one but you understands it, because what you have tell this far have made alot off confusion i think for all atleast for me. But i try to help you pulling out what you mean and the rules so we all can understand this. On the 1 hour you risk 10 pips to get 5 and have a high win rate on this that make this strategy a winner. On the higher timeframes you do the opposite here you risk 1 to get 2. Is this right understanded ? Best regards
Hi jgadefelth,

Yes 2:1 on 1 hour, minimum 1:2 on higher timeframes.
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  • #57
  • Nov 11, 2014 7:41am Nov 11, 2014 7:41am
Quoting simoneg
{quote} Hi jgadefelth, Yes 2:1 on 1 hour, minimum 1:2 on higher timeframes.
OK great are there any other rules or tools that we can use ? In what cases are you try to get more then 1:2 risk reward ?

Best regards
  • #58
  • Nov 11, 2014 7:50am Nov 11, 2014 7:50am
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} OK great are there any other rules or tools that we can use ? In what cases are you try to get more then 1:2 risk reward ? Best regards
Hi jgadfelth,

If the setup occurs soon after retracement/reversal then your 1:2+ is high probability win. The later down in a trend the setup occurs, the more confirmation is required. For example, what I will do when iffy, is wait for at least one bar to test the first close price then take the trade.
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  • #59
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:06am Nov 11, 2014 8:06am
No other tools or indicators used.
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  • #60
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:06am Nov 11, 2014 9:06am
Interesting stuff Simoneg + subscribed

I took this on the UCad

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD-1111.png Size: 13 KB


I guess we're trying to ride the retracement back down? (or at least take some crumbs from the table on the way?)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad_retracement.png Size: 20 KB
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