Why Oil Prices May Shoot Back Up

In "real time" we cannot ever know for sure when a top (or bottom) has been made. Sometime later - days, weeks, months - we can look back on charts and see what is what. That is the best we can do because what market makers to with pricing in "real time" simply cannot be predicted reliably.

If anyone could do this, they would be "zillionaires", and not wasting their time posting on media like Forex Factory. That is for sure!

Has gold "already turned up"? Only time will tell. However, there is cause to suspect that it has not. Temporary upturns simply engage more market liquidity so the down driving bears at the big banks that close their shorts into the cyclical lows can rebuild them again into the next cyclical high, for the next drive down. And, they know where these high and lows will be because they are the market makers that manipulate price to achieve them.

People can do it, its more just a matter if they can do it so that the times they win are bigger wins than the times they loose.

Gold has already turned up and gold and oil often fall in lock step with each other. According to my analysis the SP has reached a possible yearly top and a decline from here would not be unexpected.

I posted my analysis here on ff calling the exact high to within 0.4 of the actual high.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=511245#post7856415

I do it to keep a record of my predictions, posting in public is my way of keeping my analysis sharp. Of course you can never know is your top will be exceeded. But as a trader you have to put all the odds in your favour. I am not always right of course, but my knowledge keeps me aware of what is going on or might be happening.

A couple of traders are able to do this on this forum, myself included. and RTM is correct how many times do you get it right and how many times do you get it wrong.

Good for me that I get it right more often then getting it wrong and when I lose I will loses 2 trades then win the next 8-10 trades before hitting the next couple of losers.

But predicting the market is only a hobby for me, to be a successful trader you need only follow price.

Much as I understand your views (and by that I mean you assess the markets by cycles but less the cycles of price and more the cycles of time which in my view may not be directly correlated even if on wild chance you might see that relationship play here and there) I think your proposals with respect to Gold etc will be found to be incompetent for the periods ahead.

I propose that we trade mean reverting markets (that is to say markets are mathematically chaotic systems) and as such cyclic yes - but this cyclicity of price is driven by monetary balances not time. So in this case we have that AUD, Gold, Eur etc are bound for their monthly average lines right now (MAVLs) - from which points they will all drop significantly. For instance this supposes the next key trade in the Euro to be 1.26313 - 1.18757 with the probability high that the pair will undershoot that level to 1.15 this should come through within the next week or two. Other risk and metals are equally due down dramatically but because of space I am not putting up precise figures for the others here but suffice it to say you will find this view the more competent description of the future.

Cheers my friend

The Crow (-_-)

"since men have learnt to shoot without missing I have learnt to fly without perching" - a bird in a book.

If anyone could do this, they would be "zillionaires", and not wasting their time posting on media like Forex Factory. That is for sure!

how does one market maker know what other market makers are doing? gold and oil are traded on several different exchanges.

Exactly markets are hard to predict,but not impossible, at least Mike Haran has the nerve to make a call.