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  • #5,801
  • Nov 7, 2014 7:21am Nov 7, 2014 7:21am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} That 207/207.50 debit spread looking good... just push indices some more with nice NFP and there you have it... 32 tanks enter Ukraine from Russia on Friday: reports 32 tanks? It would take 3,200 tanks to lift VIX above 15... Ukraine is old news. What was that Ma Yellen was saying before? Complacency?
It's a stampede. Nobody believes the US markets can do anything but ascend. If all of the Fed governors come down with ebola and start babbling about a rate hike, maybe we could see a down day or two.

Just the opposite in Brazil and my EWZ Nov/Jan calendars are all crushed. I had such high hopes.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,802
  • Nov 7, 2014 8:06am Nov 7, 2014 8:06am
The Home Depot Reports Findings in Payment Data Breach Investigation

"In addition to the previously disclosed payment card data, separate files containing approximately 53 million email addresses were also taken during the breach. "

Yeah. Short HD? Anybody short something?

Add-on - WOW MAN! HD is down 0.2% premarket - buy the dip!!!!


Well.... judging by the quantity of FX, penny stock and other speculative spam I get - my e-mail address was taken a long, long time ago...
I get like 10 mails per day just for f....ng RayBan and Michael Kors bs. I have like 50 different spam filters in Outlook Express...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,803
  • Nov 7, 2014 8:09am Nov 7, 2014 8:09am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} It's a stampede. Nobody believes the US markets can do anything but ascend. If all of the Fed governors come down with ebola and start babbling about a rate hike, maybe we could see a down day or two. Just the opposite in Brazil and my EWZ Nov/Jan calendars are all crushed. I had such high hopes.....
Sorry to hear that about your EWZ calendars... to tell you the truth I didn't watch Brazil for some time.

Bad NFP, but who cares... just give us some more of that delicious stock market while it is still "cheap"... Nobody said that something expensive can't get even more expensive... and than some more.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,804
  • Nov 7, 2014 8:39am Nov 7, 2014 8:39am
Quoting StrayDog
I did a wide short strangle on FSLR after all... a 45/67.50 Nov monthlies, for $1.00 credit. Short strikes are 20% away from price, E.M. is $5, or close to 9%. 87% POP according to IB. That is it for today for me.

I just closed that strangles for $0.47. I did 2 lots this time, since margin req was low.

O yeah, StrayDog is on fire! Ha, can't believe - 3 in a row... $102 in tha bank dog...

And now - an avalanche of downgrades...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fslr-coverage.png Size: 12 KB


That Needham obviously has a big long position... PT $70?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,805
  • Nov 7, 2014 9:17am Nov 7, 2014 9:17am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} FB had no follow through but I'm still bearish on it, may take another trade on this tomorrow like a 74.50 put for 10c or less near the open should in open under 75.30 again, also still have the original trade from previous post that may end up a loss Facebook, Inc. (FB) -NasdaqGS 75.24 {image} 0.41(0.55%) 20:54 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
ok moved up a strike for today's expiration and long FB $75 PUT for 15c or 15$ per contract, FB price now is 75.16

MY 74 put for 28c I don't hold much hope ffor it

Facebook, Inc. (FB)
-NasdaqGS
75.16 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.10(0.13%) 3:15PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

FB Nov 2014 75.000 put (FB141107P00075000)
-OPR
0.15 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.16(51.61%) 14:55

market wants a up move again so trying to recover the two trades I did in FB which will lose I longed the DIA 175.50 calls for 13c today expiry when it was 175.09 and is now up to 175.33

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
-NYSEArca
175.33 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.04(0.02%) 3:58PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price


DIA Nov 2014 175.500 call (DIA141107C00175500)
-OPR
0.13 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.32(71.11%) 15:33
  • #5,806
  • Nov 7, 2014 11:24am Nov 7, 2014 11:24am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} ok moved up a strike for today's expiration and long FB $75 PUT for 15c or 15$ per contract, FB price now is 75.16 MY 74 put for 28c I don't hold much hope ffor it Facebook, Inc. (FB) -NasdaqGS 75.16 {image} 0.10(0.13%) 3:15PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price FB Nov 2014 75.000 put (FB141107P00075000) -OPR 0.15 {image} 0.16(51.61%) 14:55 market wants a up move again so trying to recover the two trades I did in FB which will lose I longed the DIA 175.50 calls for 13c today expiry when it was 175.09 and is now up to...
My FB long put trades are a complete loss
  • #5,807
  • Edited 12:44pm Nov 7, 2014 12:19pm | Edited 12:44pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Sorry to hear that about your EWZ calendars... to tell you the truth I didn't watch Brazil for some time. Bad NFP, but who cares... just give us some more of that delicious stock market while it is still "cheap"... Nobody said that something expensive can't get even more expensive... and than some more.
EWZ calendars are mostly Nov/Jan - so I have time. Looks like Nov short legs are heading for safe expiry. PBR is a major holding in EWZ and PBR has been tanking on a mess of problems. Looks like those might have a chance of going away in the coming weeks, though, we'll see. Bovespa also generally funked because of Brazil CB raising the SELIC (st ir) and hinting that they will be doing that again stepwise in the coming months. So....

Flat day is what you might get in lieu of actual down days in US indices, unless the fear of the Fed sets in. I doubt it will, though, and I'd bet we are on track for an epic Santa rally.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,808
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:07pm Nov 7, 2014 2:07pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} bullish SPY, Nov $107/$107.50 vertical call spread debits $0.10. Risk $10 to make $40 - needs a finish above $210 on expiration day, b/e then is @ $206.30. {image}
To match the above I did Nov SPY $201.50/$201.00 puts for a $0.11 debit today. ...typo in the quote above re: strikes...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,809
  • Edited 10:48pm Nov 7, 2014 10:18pm | Edited 10:48pm
Still calendar opps in EWZ. A $48 Dec/Jan risks $0.16 and has b/e at $43 and $52.75 on 12/19, has a 2x or better return (on 12/19) between $45 and $51, with a peak of $1.05 at $48...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-07_ewz.png Size: 34 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,810
  • Nov 8, 2014 3:46am Nov 8, 2014 3:46am
Quoting The Fool
Still calendar opps in EWZ. A $48 Dec/Jan risks $0.16 and has b/e at $43 and $52.75 on 12/19, has a 2x or better return (on 12/19) between $45 and $51, with a peak of $1.05 at $48...
$0.16 diag below protects the above calendar until 11/21, profits between $37.18 and $41.65, max at $38.50 = $0.37...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-08_ewz2.png Size: 46 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,811
  • Nov 9, 2014 12:48am Nov 9, 2014 12:48am
Quoting The Fool
Still calendar opps in EWZ. A $48 Dec/Jan risks $0.16 and has b/e at $43 and $52.75 on 12/19, has a 2x or better return (on 12/19) between $45 and $51, with a peak of $1.05 at $48... {image}
guard the downside for $0.09 - the Dec/Jan $39/$38 put diagonal spread b/e between $37.25 and $44.00 on 12/19, max profit $0.65 around $39.00...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-08_EWZPUTS.png Size: 39 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,812
  • Nov 9, 2014 12:59am Nov 9, 2014 12:59am
Quoting The Fool
guard the downside for $0.09 - the Dec/Jan $39/$38 put diagonal spread b/e between $37.25 and $44.00 on 12/19, max profit $0.65 around $39.00...
here they are together - the combo trade makes money between $37.60 and $52.20, gets on for $100/contract margin. The middle dip is <$0.20 from $41.20 to $44.50...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-08_combo.png Size: 50 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,813
  • Nov 9, 2014 6:21am Nov 9, 2014 6:21am
a bet on AAPL upside, Jan/Dec diag, $120/$122.86, b/e at $112.00, max P $0.94 at $119.00-$119.50 (on 12/19), risks $0.15, $286/contract margin
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-09_AAPL.png Size: 46 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,814
  • Nov 10, 2014 1:53am Nov 10, 2014 1:53am
hey, good morning SDog. Hope things are swell in Belgrade. I was looking thru the AAPL options trades from Friday, saw somebody did a pretty big Jan $110 short straddle. The P/L is shown below at 11/17 and near expiry at 1/16. It's a bet AAPL will trade between the b/e's at $102.40 and $117.64 at expiry. The closer you are to the original $110 straddle strike at expiry, the better the payout - up to $6.71 at $110. Margin required for 1 contract is $13,095...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-09_AAPL1.png Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-09_AAPL2.png Size: 14 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,815
  • Nov 10, 2014 1:53am Nov 10, 2014 1:53am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} here they are together - the combo trade makes money between $37.60 and $52.20, gets on for $100/contract margin. The middle dip is <$0.20 from $41.20 to $44.50... {image}
Hi TF!

You have diag put spread and call calendar. What would be a difference between that combo and double calendar, except in margin requirement?

Is there some edge in combining calendar with diagonal, comparing with double calendar or double diagonal?
On first look I can only tell that risk seems to be smaller on calendars, and that whatever combo you apply, the biggest payout is when price of U/L is close to one of yours short strikes, so that they can expire while back month still have lot of premium left.

I like your speculative ideas to make a potential 4x or more with small debits, if it plays right (for both debit spreads and calendars) . I have seen that calendars can be powerful in case of good timing... just as you said there are danger in "killing the trade to early", like I did with TWTR put calendar for ER's . There is also another side - waiting too long, and at the end banking less, like in every other trade. Yes, better to do this on indices, like you did - better chance to avoid possible binary events that comes with individual stocks, that can make a loser out of a winner over night.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,816
  • Nov 10, 2014 1:59am Nov 10, 2014 1:59am
Quoting The Fool
I was looking thru the AAPL options trades from Friday, saw somebody did a pretty big Jan $110 short straddle. The P/L is shown below at 11/17 and near expiry at 1/16. It's a bet AAPL will trade between the b/e's at $102.40 and $117.64 at expiry. The closer you are to the original $110 straddle strike at expiry, the better the payout - up to $6.71 at $110. Margin required for 1 contract is $13,095...
somebody did 725 of them for $765 each.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-09_straddle.png Size: 22 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,817
  • Nov 10, 2014 1:59am Nov 10, 2014 1:59am
Quoting The Fool
hey, good morning SDog. Hope things are swell in Belgrade. I was looking thru the AAPL options trades from Friday, saw somebody did a pretty big Jan $110 short straddle. The P/L is shown below at 11/17 and near expiry at 1/16. It's a bet AAPL will trade between the b/e's at $102.40 and $117.64 at expiry. The closer you are to the original $110 straddle strike at expiry, the better the payout - up to $6.71 at $110. Margin required for 1 contract is $13,095... {image} {image}
Well, the temperature here is good, nice weather... other than that, just usual .

Tastytrade did a variety of studies for short straddles recently. While it is a larger credit received comparing to strangles, POP is lower. They found that unlike the strangles, where the "sweet spot" for redeployment of money is banking at 50%, for straddles that is at 22-25%. A valid strategy, since the b/e point can be pretty wide.

Quoting The Fool
{quote} somebody did 725 of them for $765 each..... {image}
You can tell those are short straddles because of red color?
About margin req - it is much lower for portfolio margin accounts, I guess.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,818
  • Nov 10, 2014 2:29am Nov 10, 2014 2:29am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hi TF! You have diag put spread and call calendar. What would be a difference between that combo and double calendar, except in margin requirement? Is there some edge in combining calendar with diagonal, comparing with double calendar or double diagonal? On first look I can only tell that risk seems to be smaller on calendars, and that whatever combo you apply, the biggest payout is when price of U/L is close to one of yours short strikes, so that they can expire while back month still have lot of premium left.
No just looking at various ideas, not sure what is the best - diagonal is cheaper than calendar, but calendar is safer. I like the easier margin requirements of calendars, also - I am always pushing the limit of my margin cutoffs. Anyway, I like looking for ways to extend the profitable range, many ways to skin a cat there. I am watching EWZ, iBovespa is having problems, doubt if I will get in anything new there. If EWZ could catch an uptrend soon, my Nov/Jan call calendars can still work out for very high returns....

re: the AAPL short straddle, yes - some (but not all) of the exchanges indicate buy/sell with green/red color. A trade like that is beyond my reach, I just thought it was interesting. I really like the idea of selling naked, I just don't have the equity to front the high margin requirements on those trades....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,819
  • Nov 10, 2014 3:42am Nov 10, 2014 3:42am
one of the larger NFLX options trades from Fri, somebody did 90 x Jan '16 $600/$650 vertical for $3.60 credit. Risk downside is $46.15, margin $5k/ea....I can think of better ways to tie up some margin
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-10_nflx.png Size: 36 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,820
  • Nov 10, 2014 11:33am Nov 10, 2014 11:33am
Quoting The Fool
.........I was looking thru the AAPL options trades from Friday, saw somebody did a pretty big Jan $110 short straddle. ...........Margin required for 1 contract is $13,095...
Hey TF... I just looked at that AAPL short straddle. Jan 15 110 right? It is about $7.50 credit now.
Margin req on IB for my account is EUR 2,353 currently. As you know it is a small Reg-T EUR nominated account.
So, about 2,353 x 1.2424 = $2,923... Imagine what that margin req would be on a portfolio margin account... (Hey njr, you can check that for us!)
That is how the dough traders with large accounts can maintain so many positions (and trade small relative to account size).
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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