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  • #5,781
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:54pm Nov 5, 2014 11:54pm
Quoting StrayDog
You can probably better time SPY than IWM. Both very liquid, and good ideas for bullish bias... Nice, TF. Joke or not? What other bias except bullish for the broad market should we really have? The mofos are just going to go up and up and than more QE, and then some more milk and cookies, with occasional scares, and... just sell 1SD OTM puts and wait... can it really be that simple?
No joke...and it's not funny. But when everyone and their uncle is of the same bullish mind, that is a good time to get something on short - which is what I will be doing the rest of the week. Nothing reckless, just debit put spreads as shown above.

Otherwise, yeah, it could be just same old same old, sell bull put spreads or naked puts if you got the equity, & maybe if you get a chance, btfd & go long calls. If Draghi doesn't come through with some punch for the Eurozone tomorrow, maybe we can get a down move with meat on it. Or maybe the NFP will rock and it's back to "bad news is good news", - oh no, the Fed might be hiking because there's no inflation at all....

I don't think fondly about what may lie on the other side of the endless QE bubble inflation.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,782
  • Nov 6, 2014 12:49am Nov 6, 2014 12:49am
I've been trying to use the ToS SpreadHacker to find skew, good calendar & diagonal possibilities, not very successfully. But noticed some things on GMCR, which ER's 11/19.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,783
  • Nov 6, 2014 1:22am Nov 6, 2014 1:22am
Quoting The Fool
I've been trying to use the ToS SpreadHacker to find skew, good calendar & diagonal possibilities, not very successfully. But noticed some things on GMCR, which ER's 11/19.
the Nov/Dec1 $125/$120 put spread debits $0.02. The P/L shown below is for 11/18, the day before the ER. The trade is in profit from $166 to $122 on that day. IV may ramp up til then, especially for the front week option, and that would hurt the pre-ER profitability. Peak profit shown is $0.93 at $132.00. $0.02 to $0.93 a 46 bagger. The theoretical high profit is $3.16....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,784
  • Nov 6, 2014 1:38am Nov 6, 2014 1:38am
the call end of the GMCR DDD (double debit diagonal) - also a $0.02 debit, profits from $129.35 to $177.85 on 11/18. Best to ride these to day b4 ER. Will be checking in the morning. $500/contract margin is the worst of it, that and hanging on til the end if next week or later, but GMCR likely will consolidate before the ER, just need to be ready to get out if something exogenous moves it - stay off the death slide....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,785
  • Nov 6, 2014 1:48am Nov 6, 2014 1:48am
here they are together - the dip in the middle is $0.69 at $145.50 (on 11/18). All P/L values subject to change as iv runs up to the ER date, but iv already somewhat high, may not go much higher, another 10% up...?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,786
  • Nov 6, 2014 7:47am Nov 6, 2014 7:47am
Quoting The Fool
.... But noticed some things on GMCR, which ER's 11/19. ....
Comment in my archive: Tight Iron Condor - a.k.a. Chicken IC - was good choice for last GMCR ER's. Good options.

The same IC, with short strikes at edges of estimated move was good for TSLA also... here are the stock at $233.xx almost the same price as yesterday before close. I see now that one of the dough traders did that with weeklies...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,787
  • Nov 6, 2014 8:38am Nov 6, 2014 8:38am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I entered that Nov 175/275 short strangle as a TSLA ER's play. Put for $1.18 and call for $1.45, total $2.63 credit. If i can bank tomorrow anything above 1/3 of credit received, I will close. Will do nothing for QCOM, WFM or any other... that is it for today.
That TSLA short strangle worked out like a charm... already closed it.
Difficult to judge what price you can get for it, because bid/ask spreads at open are just huge, and you do not now what to expect. I could close better, but I am very pleased with this. I did only one lot.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Sold yesterday for $2.63 credit, bought back for $0.90, making $169 when commissions included.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,788
  • Nov 6, 2014 8:45am Nov 6, 2014 8:45am
Quoting StrayDog
... Will do nothing for QCOM, WFM or any other... that is it for today.
At open
QCOM minus 10% $7 move, WFM plus 10%, $4.50 move- both stocks with outlier moves. Estimated move WAS $2.50 for both stocks...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,789
  • Edited 2:01pm Nov 6, 2014 12:10pm | Edited 2:01pm
re: GMCR, I got in a DDD for net $0.02 debit - $170.00/$172.50 and $129.00/$131.00 @ Nov 22/Nov 28. I need GMCR to move up/down some ($10-15?) by the end of next week, or even better, by ~11/18 - the day before the ER.

remember the Nov4 week, week of 11/24, is a short week - Thur-Fri the xchanges are closed for Thanksgiving. So, only three trading days difference between the expiries above. Front week iv was somewhere like 5-7% more than back week. I had wanted to do Dec1 for the back weeks but didn't like the larger margin requirements...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,790
  • Nov 6, 2014 12:45pm Nov 6, 2014 12:45pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} At open QCOM minus 10% $7 move, WFM plus 10%, $4.50 move- both stocks with outlier moves. Estimated move WAS $2.50 for both stocks...
good job on TSLA strangle, SDog. Seems like there have been more outlier ER moves than normal, but I'm just guessing about that....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,791
  • Nov 6, 2014 1:27pm Nov 6, 2014 1:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} good job on TSLA strangle, SDog. Seems like there have been more outlier ER moves than normal, but I'm just guessing about that....
Thank you my friend. Looking at ER's tonight... Last time I did well on long KING strangle, but I will skip that stock now.

Looking at DIS, MNST and FSLR...

Last time DIS IC would be good, but I didn't trade that day. It has no $0.5 strikes, so a little problem for making perfect IC.

FSLR have very expensive options, IV is sky high... looking back and measuring post ER's moves - but just from close of ER's day to open of next day - there has been 2 x 10% and one time 14% move out of last 5 occurrences. Last 2 was smaller, just 3% and a no-move. EM is around $5... thinking of another wide strangle, like 45/67 Nov21, but this stock gives me scares... no matter that it is a $56 stock, comparing with BIDU or TSLA... TSLA is volatile stock, but ER's moves are smaller in percents, compared to FSLR.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,792
  • Nov 6, 2014 1:45pm Nov 6, 2014 1:45pm
Quoting The Fool
re: GMCR, I got in a DDD for net $0.02 debit - $170.00/$172.50 and $129.00/$131.00 @ Nov 22/Nov 28. I need GMCR to move up/down some ($10-15?) by the end of next week, or even better, by ~11/18 - the day before the ER. remember the Nov4 week, week of 11/24, is a short week - Thur-Fri the xchanges are closed for Thanksgiving. So, only three trading days difference between the expities above. Fron week iv was somewhere like 5-7% more than back week.
Hey TF!
Interesting thing that double diagonals, thanks to you I have some understanding of them. I keep lots of your explanations in one file and I have some other links to articles and tt videos.

I am forcing some trades in order to build experience, confidence and peace of mind faster... Just looking all day at closed TSLA options I learned something about IV and option pricing. I am aware that with this account I am probably taking to much risk with shorting strangles, that is why I widen them so much, and trying hard to pick my trades... I could do 4 lots on FSLR with the same margin requirements like for TSLA or BIDU, but better NOT - better to be smaller for now... 1 or 2 lots.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,793
  • Nov 6, 2014 2:06pm Nov 6, 2014 2:06pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hey TF! Interesting thing that double diagonals, thanks to you I have some understanding of them. I keep lots of your explanations in one file and I have some other links to articles and tt videos.
OK, cool, just keep in mind that I'm a dumbass. That DDD is only the second or third one that I have traded live. The ul has to move a bit for them to pay off, I am curious to see if GMCR DDD can perform anywhere near as well as the ToS P/L analysis utility suggests it might.

I wonder if we will ever see S&P <2,000 again? I wouldn't be surprised if 2k fits in the rearview for months to come...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,794
  • Nov 6, 2014 2:45pm Nov 6, 2014 2:45pm
I did a wide short strangle on FSLR after all... a 45/67.50 Nov monthlies, for $1.00 credit.
Short strikes are 20% away from price, E.M. is $5, or close to 9%. 87% POP according to IB.

That is it for today for me.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,795
  • Nov 6, 2014 2:59pm Nov 6, 2014 2:59pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I'm already in once FB broke 75.30, I'm not waiting as there is a lot of momentum so took the $74 put for Friday 7 NOV expiration FB Nov 2014 74.000 put (FB141107P00074000) -OPR 0.28 {image} 0.06(27.27%) 17:56 FB is now trading at 75.18 Facebook, Inc. (FB) -NasdaqGS 75.18 {image} 0.58(0.77%) 6:25PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
FB had no follow through but I'm still bearish on it, may take another trade on this tomorrow like a 74.50 put for 10c or less near the open should in open under 75.30 again, also still have the original trade from previous post that may end up a loss

Facebook, Inc. (FB)
-NasdaqGS
75.24 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.41(0.55%) 20:54 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #5,796
  • Nov 6, 2014 3:03pm Nov 6, 2014 3:03pm
Quoting StrayDog
I did a wide short strangle on FSLR after all... a 45/67.50 Nov monthlies, for $1.00 credit. Short strikes are 20% away from price, E.M. is $5, or close to 9%. 87% POP according to IB. That is it for today for me.
these strangle shorts your doing are good like the one you did on TSLA, there's a recurring theme, hope you figure it out because I think its a good strategy
  • #5,797
  • Edited 11:00pm Nov 6, 2014 3:42pm | Edited 11:00pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} these strangle shorts your doing are good like the one you did on TSLA, there's a recurring theme, hope you figure it out because I think its a good strategy
yep I like the naked shorts, too - my only issue with them is the high margin requirement - plus in the IRA accounts I can't even do short naked calls at all, bummer...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,798
  • Nov 6, 2014 9:41pm Nov 6, 2014 9:41pm
Quoting The Fool
Below are the Nov UVXY puts - I saw a price break on the $17's, sold the $20.5 puts for $0.36, bought the $17's for $0.03. Previous low on UVXY was $22.22. I'd bet we can make new lows, but $20.5 is down there...
yeah $20.50 is down there, except UVXY dropped 7% today and we could be in for another epic bull run. With the world markets literally drowning in QE or the promise of QE to come, I shoulda known better than to put on any kind of contra trade. There's nothing on the horizon that could possibly stop the bull market from achieving a near vertical trajectory straight into 2015. NFP tomorrow, meh....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,799
  • Nov 7, 2014 12:06am Nov 7, 2014 12:06am
Quoting The Fool
With the world markets literally drowning in QE or the promise of QE to come, I shoulda known better than to put on any kind of contra trade. There's nothing on the horizon that could possibly stop the bull market from achieving a near vertical trajectory straight into 2015. NFP tomorrow, meh....
bullish SPY, Nov $107/$107.50 vertical call spread debits $0.10. Risk $10 to make $40 - needs a finish above $210 on expiration day, b/e then is @ $206.30.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-06_spycalls.png Size: 49 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,800
  • Nov 7, 2014 6:34am Nov 7, 2014 6:34am
Quoting The Fool
bullish SPY, Nov $107/$107.50 vertical call spread debits $0.10. Risk $10 to make $40 - needs a finish above $210 on expiration day, b/e then is @ $206.30. {image}
That 207/207.50 debit spread looking good... just push indices some more with nice NFP and there you have it...



32 tanks enter Ukraine from Russia on Friday: reports

32 tanks? It would take 3,200 tanks to lift VIX above 15... Ukraine is old news.
What was that Ma Yellen was saying before? Complacency?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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