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A "new" simple system based on MA

  • #1,381
  • Sep 20, 2014 5:19pm Sep 20, 2014 5:19pm
Hmaoui,
Thank you for your post andanalysis/explanation. One question: do you always use stoch 5,3,3 (and on all time-frames)? I am asking because in one of your earlier posts (a few months ago) I saw a stochastics that looked more like 20,3,3 to me.

Thank you again and please post more often if you can!
  • #1,382
  • Sep 21, 2014 1:59pm Sep 21, 2014 1:59pm
TY Francisakz !

I know that hopefully my thread should be useful for some people. And that' my first motivation to keep the thread alive.

Quoting francisakz
Hamoui Thanks a Lot, God will continue to Bless and Keep you, it's a pity many people don't know the worth of ur thread, but just keep in mind that not all people don't appreciate, there are people who do appreciate ur work, keep it up Hamoui.
  • #1,383
  • Sep 23, 2014 3:01am Sep 23, 2014 3:01am
This thread like a Home for me in the Forex jungle. I take big curves to learn more about tradig and try some systems, but then always come back
  • #1,384
  • Sep 23, 2014 8:03am Sep 23, 2014 8:03am
I use cci histogram for idetnify thrend and for timing. Trend if cci (210) > 100 or < 100, and pullback is valid if cci(14) break down or up the 0 level. This is some settings as how Clivepackham use this tool, it's a bit comfortable for me.
This was demo today, EURAUD, 1 min. Very important to find the trending pairs, and don't trade if there isn't.
19+3 pips, out at pivot resistance 1.
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  • #1,385
  • Sep 28, 2014 9:15am Sep 28, 2014 9:15am
Welcome back Bowforex ! Hope that you will continue to post your charts and so that I can comment it to better describe the system (even if it is pretty simple).

About your trade, it is clearly a good one : the trend is established, you have a nice pullback with interesting price action candles, price above pivot, etc... All signs for a safe buy : this is an A+ setup and it gives you 19 pips. No secret at all !


Quoting bowforex
I use cci histogram for idetnify thrend and for timing. Trend if cci (210) > 100 or < 100, and pullback is valid if cci(14) break down or up the 0 level. This is some settings as how Clivepackham use this tool, it's a bit comfortable for me. This was demo today, EURAUD, 1 min. Very important to find the trending pairs, and don't trade if there isn't. 19+3 pips, out at pivot resistance 1. {image}
  • #1,386
  • Sep 30, 2014 5:45pm Sep 30, 2014 5:45pm
After some questions in private messages, I think it is necessary to give you more information on the trade of Bowforex using CCI. Some of you asked me why I accept CCI as an indicator and why did I change the system ? Please !!! Read the first posts !!! The system is based on a simple philosophy : you determine the trend through EMAs, you confirm with one indicator, and then you look for a good pullback to enter at the best price, confirming with an oscillator. The indicator and oscillators you used is not the most important. You just have to master the indicators you use.

Bowforex chose the CCI to determine the trend and also to get the timing (with a shorter time period). Also he simplified the EMAs as he only use a 15EMA to get the longer of the short EMAs and the 30EMA and 60EMA to get the Guppy's tunnel (long terme EMAs). This is not a problem at all ! The thing is to master the indicators you use and to understand the phylosophy of the system : getting the best price on a pullback in a trend clearly established ! Nothing more !!!

And this is the way my brother trade : he uses the RSI21 to get the trend, and the RSI5 to get the timing so that he has only one indicator to master. That is a personal choice.

So to conclude : I did not change anything in the system. This is always the same thing : buying cheap in a clear uptrend, and selling high in a clear downtrend. To do it the best way you must choose some indicators to help you to define the trend (Guppy's EMAs, and MACD, DMI, or CCI for example) and an oscillator to help you to get the best price (and also combined with price action candles). Never forget it !
  • #1,387
  • Oct 6, 2014 9:53am Oct 6, 2014 9:53am
i take this trade today. can you give some advice？
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  • #1,388
  • Oct 7, 2014 11:36am Oct 7, 2014 11:36am
Ok. If we look at the 1h trend which is the LT chart if I understand (you trade on 5mn chart, dont you?), we can see that the trend is up but this is not a very clean trend as LT EMAs are almost flat. But price is above EMAs, MACD is positive. Of course you can see the resistance on the H1 level. If we have a look on the 15mn chart (intermediate trend), price broke a support and MADC is under zero. Nevertheless, we have the pivot point level which can act as a support. Also the slope of the EMAs is not very good. On the 5mn chart we can see that your timing is perfect. The first entry could have been an interesting trade, but it is a corrective one : so the target would have been the Pivot point level. The second entry is more risky because Pivot point is a potentially strong support on a day trading basis and it is not very far from your entry. So the R/R ratio is not very good.

So, I think that this is not an A+ setup because long term trend is not down and this could be a corrective trade. In these cases you can have a serious bounce of the price on the pivot point level so be very careful with corrective trade. I may have taken the first one for scalping but not the second one. And I think that some markets are better to trade : I mean clear trend on all TF, with nice pullback, and a better R/R ratio. So this is not a bad trade, especially the first one), but I think this is not the trades a beginner should take.

My advice is to focus on A+ setup first ! And if you cant find an A+ setup on the markets you trade, then dont do anything and stay concentrated ! Dont be nervous. This is like a pizza dealer : he doesnt do anything before people place their order and when the rush is coming he is focused on his work : this is the philosophy of A+ setup.
  • #1,389
  • Nov 3, 2014 2:58am Nov 3, 2014 2:58am
Hello ! Wow....about 1 month without any questions nor charts posted ! Unbelievable ! Maybe you master the system and you get pips so you dont want to waste your time on this thread ? Or maybe you are disappointed because you still lose money ? If you are in the second case (a mail I received in private), dont believe that it is because of the system. The key is to get the right psychology to master the system and to act like a robot, I mean without any emotion. This is why some people win money and others lose theirto g money ! So please, be sure that to seriously improve your trading, the system is not enough. And the right psychology to trade successfully is not something we naturally have in mind : 90% of people has the inverted psychology !!! That's why 90% of people lose money on FX. But dont believe that you cant change. At the beginning, I had the wrong psychology too. I met my mentor and I changed. And then, with this simple system, I managed to get my money from the markets.

So I hope you win enough money to quit this thread but I think this is not the for almost people here. And even if it is the case, after all it would be so nice to give back a little bit to pepole who are not successful yet. Please, feel free to post your charts, your trades (successful or not) so that we can all learn form your experience. This is the way to continually improve our trading.

Waiting for some news....
  • #1,390
  • Nov 5, 2014 2:33am Nov 5, 2014 2:33am
Hello,

Here are USDJPY charts : a perfect market to trade these last days ! Up on all TF ! So you can trade very safely and take some risks increasing your position size. I let you see the charts and find the entry points....
Of course, you look at charts from the biggest TF to the smallest TF.
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  • #1,391
  • Nov 5, 2014 12:25pm Nov 5, 2014 12:25pm
If you want to make some pips, please look at oil, gold (XAU/USD), and €/$. Apply the system, you will trade safely and make many pips !!!
  • #1,392
  • Nov 5, 2014 1:37pm Nov 5, 2014 1:37pm
Yesterday, I told you that the USD/JPY is a perfect market to trade safely....today we had 3 A+ setup on the 5mn chart ! When it is so clear, it is not very difficult to make some pips. For those who doubt, look at the chart uploaded.

Do your analysis, select a clear trending market, trade with the trend according to the system rules, and you will get your bucks for sure ! Repeat it everyday and after a year or two you will have enough capital to start a real business. As simple as I tell you.
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  • #1,393
  • Nov 5, 2014 1:50pm Nov 5, 2014 1:50pm
Hi @Hmaoui!

I found this thread before this afternoon and I have been reading all your 'instructions' and checking your charts.

I found this system very comfortable to me and it's quite similar to the system that I'm personally 'developing' but I think that yours is fantastic!

I've put all the indicators on the MT4 and I've checked the EU chart on H1 and I've spot this, for example. It would be awesome if you could tell me if I have understood well the system and if not, tell me why I'm wrong.

Here I attach the chart 'painted' for clearly understanding what I have spotted.

Thank you very much!

Alber

P.S: I'm quite newbie at trading
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,394
  • Nov 6, 2014 7:48am Nov 6, 2014 7:48am
Hi Alberduris !

Nice to meet you. Well, your trade example is a perfect setup according to the rules of the system. You have a clearly downtrend established after a breakdown. Then a pullback near the EMA and a stochastic overbought in a downtrend movement. Trend is not finished anyway and iti is confirmed by DMI, so you can jump in ! The target should have been near 1,25 which is a major support and a RN. You would have won about 120 pips or something like that.

Please can you confirme what EMAs you use ? I suppose it is 15 EMA and 60 or 55EMA something like that, isnt it ? The fact is that I advise you to use 2 ST EMAs and 2 LT EMAs to get an idea of the spread between each one. And it gives you the long term tunnel and the short term tunnel. It is visually easier and it gives you more information which can be very useful.


Quoting alberduris
Hi @Hmaoui! I found this thread before this afternoon and I have been reading all your 'instructions' and checking your charts. I found this system very comfortable to me and it's quite similar to the system that I'm personally 'developing' but I think that yours is fantastic! I've put all the indicators on the MT4 and I've checked the EU chart on H1 and I've spot this, for example. It would be awesome if you could tell me if I have understood well the system and if not, tell me why I'm wrong. Here I attach the chart 'painted' for clearly understanding...
  • #1,395
  • Nov 6, 2014 7:50am Nov 6, 2014 7:50am
As I told you yesterday, watch out at the €/$....it goes south !!! And it was predictable ! Now the long term targets are 1,23 and 1,2150 for those who trade LT charts.
  • #1,396
  • Edited 12:22pm Nov 6, 2014 12:10pm | Edited 12:22pm
Quoting hmaoui
Hi Alberduris ! Nice to meet you. Well, your trade example is a perfect setup according to the rules of the system. You have a clearly downtrend established after a breakdown. Then a pullback near the EMA and a stochastic overbought in a downtrend movement. Trend is not finished anyway and iti is confirmed by DMI, so you can jump in ! The target should have been near 1,25 which is a major support and a RN. You would have won about 120 pips or something like that. Please can you confirme what EMAs you use ? I suppose it is 15 EMA and 60 or 55EMA...
Thank you for your answer!

Quite close! I was using a 12 EMA as ST and a 50 EMA (Instead of 60 because 60 is a fib number ) as LT. But I was thinking about using all the EMA's that you use and advise to use.
-->[ST (3/5/8/10/12/15) LT (30/35/40/45/50/55)] <--

But now I don't know what it's better to do, because you've just answer me that using only 2 ST EMA's and 2 LT EMA's is what you advise... " The fact is that I advise you to use 2 ST EMAs and 2 LT EMAs"

So please, what do you think it's better? The 6 EMA's pack or the just 2 pack?

Edit: This is how I have it right now. (Attached)
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  • #1,397
  • Nov 8, 2014 2:36pm Nov 8, 2014 2:36pm
Hello Alberduris,

Well, what I advise you is to use 4 EMAs AT LEAST. But the original system uses Guppy Multiple Moving Average. The fact is that Guppys allow you to have a very visual idea of the trend and the relation between LT and ST. Also, you can easily see the market rythm and cycle because of the spreading. But on the other hand, I can understand that all EMAs can a little bit confuse some traders. So that's why I advise you to use 4 EMA as a minimum (2 ST and 2 LT). I hope I am clear enough to you.


Quoting alberduris
{quote} Thank you for your answer! Quite close! I was using a 12 EMA as ST and a 50 EMA (Instead of 60 because 60 is a fib number ) as LT. But I was thinking about using all the EMA's that you use and advise to use. -->[ST (3/5/8/10/12/15) LT (30/35/40/45/50/55)] <-- But now I don't know what it's better to do, because you've just answer me that using only 2 ST EMA's and 2 LT EMA's is what you advise... " The fact is that I advise you to use 2 ST EMAs and 2 LT EMAs" So please, what do you think it's better? The 6 EMA's pack or the just 2 pack?...
  • #1,398
  • Nov 9, 2014 4:50am Nov 9, 2014 4:50am
Quoting alberduris
{quote} Thank you for your answer! Quite close! I was using a 12 EMA as ST and a 50 EMA (Instead of 60 because 60 is a fib number ) as LT. But I was thinking about using all the EMA's that you use and advise to use. -->[ST (3/5/8/10/12/15) LT (30/35/40/45/50/55)] <-- But now I don't know what it's better to do, because you've just answer me that using only 2 ST EMA's and 2 LT EMA's is what you advise... " The fact is that I advise you to use 2 ST EMAs and 2 LT EMAs" So please, what do you think it's better? The 6 EMA's pack or the just 2 pack?...
Just to remember you that 60 is not a Fib number ! Fib numbers are 3/5/8/13/21/34/55/89/144/233/377.....So the closest number is 50 or 60.
  • #1,399
  • Nov 9, 2014 11:03am Nov 9, 2014 11:03am
Quoting hmaoui
Hello Alberduris, Well, what I advise you is to use 4 EMAs AT LEAST. But the original system uses Guppy Multiple Moving Average. The fact is that Guppys allow you to have a very visual idea of the trend and the relation between LT and ST. Also, you can easily see the market rythm and cycle because of the spreading. But on the other hand, I can understand that all EMAs can a little bit confuse some traders. So that's why I advise you to use 4 EMA as a minimum (2 ST and 2 LT). I hope I am clear enough to you. {quote}
Hi Hmaoui!

Thank you very much for your explanation! Personally I feel really comfortable with all the EMAs and ,as you say, allows to have a very visual idea of the trend so I've decided to use the system in that way

About the fib number... Yes, my fault
  • #1,400
  • Nov 9, 2014 3:57pm Nov 9, 2014 3:57pm
Hmaoui,
As always, thanks for your posts and the trading method. You often mention (and quite rightly so!) psychology of trading. My problem, that I have been trying to overcome (and am still struggling with it) is that sometimes I develop a bias, i.e. I start to believe that market will go in a certain direction even if the current price action and indicators point otherwise. At such moments I am wondering if it is my subconscious that suggests this to me? (And some authors suggest that "your subconsciousness is not stupid, and if it tells you something, listen"). Problem is sometimes a bias is right, sometimes it is wrong.

So, my question is this: do you ever have "biases" like this and give them a thought? Or do you strictly follow what the moving averages and the respective position of price relative to the guppy MAs, as well as indicators, show you? And another question: which of the two indicators, i.e. MACD or DMI appears more important in your decision-making?

Thanks again, hopefully you'll find time to answer.
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