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  • #5,741
  • Nov 3, 2014 10:46am Nov 3, 2014 10:46am
Quoting StrayDog
A lot of negativity around TWTR... Could this be a good idea? This trade has no downside risk, since total credit is larger than $1, which is the width of put spread, and I do not see that stock above $47, which is b/e point. IV rank is low, though... {image}
TWTR spread looks interesting. SPY IC calls might give you problems, we could see SPY 2,100 by Dec....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,742
  • Nov 3, 2014 10:55am Nov 3, 2014 10:55am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I did buy some BABA 11/7 $113 calls for $0.35 today, just a little lotto ticket. I might look to play something larger on YHOO weeklies on Monday. BABA IVR @ 94%; YHOO scraping bottom at 24%. {image}
BABA has come up $4+ today and I am up $0.30, leaning hard towards closing. $113 calls iv will crash after the ER, and I might end up losing money if BABA does not move up far enough.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,743
  • Nov 3, 2014 11:03am Nov 3, 2014 11:03am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} TWTR spread looks interesting. SPY IC calls might give you problems, we could see SPY 2,100 by Dec....
Yeah, that TWTR thing was much better when U/L traded above $41...
Still thinking about that SPY IC... Idea is to close by the end of November, for 40-50% gain, or before... I am aware of possible Santa Claus rally.
I am reluctant to pull a trigger on anything, because of some possible ER's plays, but that TWTR thing could be nice.

For ER's plays - a lot of them this week. For tomorrow BABA and PCLN (last time IC on PCLN would be a nice winner)... Skipping them since I will be on the road, but for the rest of the week - QCOM, TSLA, WFM, APA, KING and DIS - with good options.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,744
  • Nov 3, 2014 11:04am Nov 3, 2014 11:04am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} BABA has come up $4+ today and I am up $0.30, leaning hard towards closing. $113 calls iv will crash after the ER, and I might end up losing money if BABA does not move up far enough.
Exactly. Most of the time it is smart to bank a quick buck... not always, but most of the time. Buying calls in advance for BABA was a good speculation... everybody expecting a miracle and pushing price higher. Good call, TF!
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,745
  • Nov 3, 2014 11:23am Nov 3, 2014 11:23am
Quoting The Fool
An example is FB. After the ER drop from $81+ to $74, IVR dropped down to 13%. IVR might flatline or go a little lower, but it can not go very much lower. And, given the equity-positive QE-forever environment we are in, one could see FB rebounding over the next months. Buying a call calendar could do well on FB. The Nov/Dec $80 call calendar gets bought for $0.87. A Dec/Jan debit is nearly same at $0.89 and may benefit from rising iv into the Jan Q4 ER date.
Reading up on FB recent events, I see why it is selling off and will wait for it to find a floor, not sure where/when that will be - staying away for now.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,746
  • Nov 3, 2014 12:36pm Nov 3, 2014 12:36pm
Never boring with TWTR...

Rumors Twitter's (TWTR) Costolo Could Step Down and Jim Cramer is Fueling the Fire

Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,747
  • Nov 3, 2014 1:00pm Nov 3, 2014 1:00pm
Quoting StrayDog
Hey guys... interesting stuff about SPX 2 SD moves. (This one is for njr, since he is a hard core Snp naked option seller ) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 Standard Deviation Moves Naked options are thought to have undefined risk. However, we know that an underlying can only go to zero so naked puts technically have a max loss. Since...
Hey SD - Many thanks for this. Yup, this clearly demonstrates the reason why I prefer to trade the indices considering 'win' percentage rates such as these. I'm not quite at Karen's level yet but on the way there Yes, there are certainly better percentages on indices than individual stock options. The other part of the 'Karen strategy' is the "flipping" of the options from the 56 DTE to around 45DTE. Given this amazing melt-up, selling puts on a down-day at less than 2SD movements and closing on an up-day has been quite profitable. I'll take a look at the TT site and watch the full details of the study they did. Thanks again
  • #5,748
  • Edited 2:59pm Nov 3, 2014 2:45pm | Edited 2:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} BABA has come up $4+ today and I am up $0.30, leaning hard towards closing. $113 calls iv will crash after the ER, and I might end up losing money if BABA does not move up far enough.
yes, tanx, SDog - I got out for $0.25-$0.30 net, now watch it pop tomorrow to $120. That would be my typical luck...

Got tired of watching my UVXY Nov $22/$20 bull put spread bleeding and got out (near b/e) for a $15 loss.....then to close the day UVXY comes up 4%. But, hey, that's trading.

Anyway, that m/l summarizes my day - just dinking around on existing trades, closing many, and now I have lotsa dry powder. Waiting for inspiration....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,749
  • Nov 3, 2014 3:15pm Nov 3, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting The Fool
- just dinking around on existing trades, closing many, and now I have lotsa dry powder. Waiting for inspiration....
looks like bulls just pausing to catch breath, and upside is open for this week. Maybe NFP prints low, but does it matter? Maybe what will matter is further crashing oil price, stronger USD, some confusion or upsets in the US midterms. As always, I am looking for that easy money...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,750
  • Nov 4, 2014 12:45pm Nov 4, 2014 12:45pm
I sold a YHOO bear put credit spread this morning, Nov $51/$49 - for about $0.25 net, when YHOO was trading around $47.00.

Battling burnout, and lack of screen time - need to try to put on some more trades tomorrow
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,751
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:11pm Nov 4, 2014 7:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Reading up on FB recent events, I see why it is selling off and will wait for it to find a floor, not sure where/when that will be - staying away for now.
maybe looks like I missed it, FB rebounded well today....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,752
  • Edited 11:53pm Nov 4, 2014 10:57pm | Edited 11:53pm
who are the frackers? WTI to $75 or lower puts the squeeze on em....

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0IJ29J20141031

HK, GDP, KOG....TPLM, CLR, APC, OXY,

I have been pondering whether I might buy Jan '16 or later otm calls on some of these guys. There's no hurry - oil prices will likely go lower and stay low for some time. Big Oil honchos say " hey, we not worried - low prices will shake out the weak hand drillers and frackers and oil sands producers and with less producers there will be less overproduction and prices will come back up, no prob" - and that may be true, but it will take some time to unfold, and then there's the question of decreasing demand. More worrisome is the issue of how central to the US "recovery" has been the hydrocarbon production boom. The reason unemployment is low low in N. Dakota and Texas and all points in between has everything to do with the US oil boom and the high cost of oil. A secular bear market for crude would be very bad for the US economy...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,753
  • Nov 5, 2014 8:44am Nov 5, 2014 8:44am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} maybe looks like I missed it, FB rebounded well today....
Ups... On Monday FB was briefly under $74... I was looking on 70/72 Dec12 bull put spreads, since there are only $2.5 strikes on monthlies... comparing it with 67.50/70 Dec19.... but now FB @ 76.40.

Well, I am still tired from driving half a day yesterday, so if I don't figure something "clever" there are always some ER's plays. I can see a big move on CHK, and decent up moves from TWX and MDLZ which all had ER's today BMO.

For AH there are TSLA, QCOM and WFM. I will play some of those three.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,754
  • Nov 5, 2014 9:36am Nov 5, 2014 9:36am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Ups... On Monday FB was briefly under $74... I was looking on 70/72 Dec12 bull put spreads, since there are only $2.5 strikes on monthlies... comparing it with 67.50/70 Dec19.... but now FB @ 76.40. Well, I am still tired from driving half a day yesterday, so if I don't figure something "clever" there are always some ER's plays. I can see a big move on CHK, and decent up moves from TWX and MDLZ which all had ER's today BMO. For AH there are TSLA, QCOM and WFM. I will play some of...
If FB close under 75.30 then I'm long puts, so your bull put spread may have a chance
  • #5,755
  • Edited 10:31am Nov 5, 2014 10:00am | Edited 10:31am
Hi, CG!

As TF would said "lot of dry powder" on my account right now... I only have some long VIX positions from before... underwater off course.
Just looking everywhere... Lot of tech stocks in red now


Add-on
With TWTR around $41, I shorted a 1 SD strangle 34/48 Dec19 with 45 DTE, for $1.07 credit.
Price skew is to the upside, since puts are $0.45 and calls are $0.62...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TWTR_1SD-strangle.png Size: 74 KB


With b/e points $32.93 and $49.07... this has to move 20%+ either way... plan is not to hold until expiration, rather to close according to "cheat sheet"

Attached Image


This table is for options with 45 DTE and have served me well, and every time I didn't close when wining pct was achieved faster then here, it was mistake, like making a b/e trade from a wining trade or worse. For example if that strangle lose 30% of value in 8 days instead of 10 days - close that and move on.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,756
  • Nov 5, 2014 10:30am Nov 5, 2014 10:30am
Quoting StrayDog
Hi, CG! As TF would said "lot of dry powder" on my account right now... I only have some long VIX positions from before... underwater off course. Just looking everywhere... Lot of tech stocks in red now Add-on With TWTR around $41, I shorted a 1 SD strangle 34/48 Dec19 with 45 DTE, for $1.07 credit. Price skew is to the upside, since puts are $0.45 and calls are $0.62...
Below are the Nov UVXY puts - I saw a price break on the $17's, sold the $20.5 puts for $0.36, bought the $17's for $0.03. Previous low on UVXY was $22.22. I'd bet we can make new lows, but $20.5 is down there...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-UVXY.png Size: 12 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,757
  • Nov 5, 2014 10:36am Nov 5, 2014 10:36am
Quoting The Fool
I sold a YHOO bear put credit spread this morning, Nov $51/$49 - for about $0.25 net, when YHOO was trading around $47.00. Battling burnout, and lack of screen time - need to try to put on some more trades tomorrow
closed this for a $25 loss. I miss-entered the entry, did 1 contract spread - I usually do 10x multiples in this account. Mistake saved me beaucoup, lucky me. Trying to get my head on straight....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,758
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:10am Nov 5, 2014 11:10am
Hi TF.... while I also trying to get my head straight... Just saw this trade. Nice example how she got away with rolling, and saved a losing trade.
Easier with bigger account off course, and experience... but still a nice example... all in the text inside picture.

Attached Image


Looking at these 3 stocks (WFM, QCOM and TSLA) for ER's plays... and I still don't like either of them. WFM had some big ER's gaps... on TSLA there is a $20 E.M..... (maybe something really wide like I did on BIDU) which brings me to QCOM, with $2.5 estimated move on a ~$77 stock...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,759
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:34am Nov 5, 2014 11:34am
Quoting StrayDog
Looking at these 3 stocks (WFM, QCOM and TSLA) for ER's plays... and I still don't like either of them. WFM had some big ER's gaps... on TSLA there is a $20 E.M..... (maybe something really wide like I did on BIDU) which brings me to QCOM, with $2.5 estimated move on a ~$77 stock...
I looked at TSLA, will maybe look again, I lean bearish there, but likely will skip it. If we're in for a bullish run to Xmas, I may look at index calendars. I like calendars since the margin requirement is easy - just the debit to put on the spread. The IWM $125 call Dec/Jan costs $0.30, can return 4x that if things work out...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-05_iwm.png Size: 56 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,760
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:49am Nov 5, 2014 11:49am
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/sante...154000249.html

QE forever. Don't fight the ECB, the BoJ, the Fed, etc. If Draghi doesn't deliver, though, could be an interesting end to the week....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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