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Oppositional thinking on demand and supply

  • #21
  • Nov 4, 2014 2:43pm Nov 4, 2014 2:43pm
I ONLY ever trade positive swap. My broker pays my grocery bill every week LOL!
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #22
  • Nov 4, 2014 3:08pm Nov 4, 2014 3:08pm
Be careful though.Positive swap isn't always an indication of direction (not unless you've got huge pockets!).Gbp/Nzd right now is a perfect example
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #23
  • Nov 4, 2014 4:37pm Nov 4, 2014 4:37pm
Quoting Jenx
Be careful though.Positive swap isn't always an indication of direction (not unless you've got huge pockets!).Gbp/Nzd right now is a perfect example
We should have more "symmetrical" conversation on this - I am making myself 101 on all that jazz:nerd:

On a more skeptical note - if we oversimplify just for the discussion sake, and follow the thumb rule that
1/2 is the "probabliest" Fib retracement, then on the (hypothetical) way back Up , au will have at least TWO MAJOR impediments:
0.95 as a well grooved in S/R - from the just before the 2008 dive infamy, and
your suggested 50% - which is approx 1.0 (The 1/2 Fib).

One has to admit that two breaks of trend (as of now) often serve as precursors of its sunset time... so after two major resistance levels
big questions will exist as to the further UP-retrace.
Remember - today both Gold an Real Estate bow before the greenback in Crises, and crises we have aplenty economic and military , and also a new arrival - biomedical one ...,
so $ is practically THE ONLY liquid safe haven. So AUD is risk-on mood currency...
Siddhartha G
  • #24
  • Nov 5, 2014 2:05am Nov 5, 2014 2:05am
To be fair, the retracement on the monthly is pretty incidental. It's more the possible accumulation that has me interested.Theres a lot of other stuff as well.RBA saying that AUD is over-priced should have you thinking about buying for a start!! Metals are junk, USD only safe buy, etc etc.Theres currently a huge exchange going on between weak and strong holders if you ask me.
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #25
  • Nov 5, 2014 2:25am Nov 5, 2014 2:25am
This was issued right at the end of June.Have a quick look at the daily chart on cable! LOL

"We stay bullish for a break above 1.7063 to test 1.7118 next, then our core medium-term target at 1.7332." Credit Suisse
GBPUSD has rallied to retest the recent high at 1.7063, which is again capping for now. However, we look for an eventual extension above to test trend resistance, now at 1.7118. We allow for another dip back from here, before moving onto our long-held medium-term target at 1.7330/32 – the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 collapse – which we would look to cap for a correction lower. Bigger picture though, we target 1.8235. Read more: Market Watch
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #26
  • Nov 8, 2014 8:35am Nov 8, 2014 8:35am
Jenx, In reference to post #1, that is the way I see it too. Things are not always what they seem in
this market. I trade what I see, not what I think I see. Good thought provoking thread you have started.
Thanks for sharing your views.

_______________________
  • #27
  • Nov 8, 2014 10:03am Nov 8, 2014 10:03am
Quoting acetrader
Jenx, In reference to post #1, that is the way I see it too. Things are not always what they seem in this market. I trade what I see, not what I think I see. Good thought provoking thread you have started. Thanks for sharing your views. _______________________
Hello acetrader
Sorry for the last few posts,went a bit off track of the thread!
I very much believe this is how the markets work. How I try to use it is when I identify what I think maybe for instance a bottom,(accumulation,daily range,extreme levels that sort off stuff) first thing I do is look at general opinion.If everyones screaming buy,buy,buy, then I'm staying out.What I'm waiting for is stuff like "as soon as this gets to x I'm off it" "Thats me out, never trading this pair again" "I'm taking the loss and waiting for some confirmation" etc etc. But the real money shot is when everyone once again starts to scream "Sell,Sell,Sell" !!!
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #28
  • Nov 8, 2014 10:17am Nov 8, 2014 10:17am
Dears,
Just it caused by broker. Because when we do entering the trade, then they automatically open their another order with trading position agains us. It is 100% sure if your account is under 5,000 usd.
By statistics: allmost of trader will loose after 2 years. Then their problem for winnign is just simply a time.
that is why we see , when we enter the order , almost of the time market run agains us.
when we gain pip ? it just happen when BB comes/ news comes/ volume in ECN is ENOUGH.
  • #29
  • Nov 12, 2014 6:13am Nov 12, 2014 6:13am
If you ever have an overwhelming urge to trade in a certain direction, you have 2 choices, and neither should be to trade in that direction.
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #30
  • Nov 12, 2014 11:20am Nov 12, 2014 11:20am
Quoting Jenx
An idea that I adopted a while ago was that the forex market operates in a way that is in opposition to how traditional markets operate in relation to demand and supply. My thinking was,and is, that the exchange market, unlike the stock market, can only survive if it always moves against the majority.Therefore ,the more buyers come into the market the lower price will fall until there becomes an imbalance. This obviously happens when stops are hit,turning those buys into sells, buyers can't stand the pain any longer ,relinquishing their buy orders...

Hi

i get what you are trying to say , but i dont agree when u say " the more buyers come into the market the lower the price wil fall" its not true .. more buyers means more demand therfore according to the law of supply and demand , price "should" rise .. if it doesent then its a a whole different story alltogether.. speaking of buying pressure... and the "quality" of buying / demand .. which is the significant point u are trying to explain... is the following if the quality and quantity of demand is weak then price does decline due to the exchange of demand from strong to weak holders...

what one could say thou is "the more Weak holders buy (quality of demand is weak) the sooner and further price will drop IF the selling of strong holders (quality of supply is strong) is done...." due to the quantity and quality of supply exchanging from one hand to the other...

aswell as " price will fall until there becomes an imbalance" wrong! if price is falling there allready is an imbalance in the market and we will find balance again if price goes sideways... (most agreed on price)

and " attracts new sellers and we now have a new imbalance of more sellers than buyers and therefore price starts to move up" if price attracts more sellers and therefore creates an imbalance ... price will move down , not up...

ive made some examples on why price may turn down or up even if it "looks" attractive to buyers or sellers... which again is all a mather of the quantity and quality of supply and demand...


Quoting PrymeTyme
As a daytrader, we get excited when we see this, but we need to think like an institution. If I was an institutional Buyer , I'd be more likely to react to a real offer than a tiny offer . That's what the MarketMaker (xy) is looking for. But if he can't lure one in, he'll have to just pick away, which means selling at the Bid (Not many small orders will feel the need to buy 1million into such a strong offer). So the price moves down slightly as different bids are taken, but how does XY handle this? If he distributed 10mill already does he sit tight...
Quoting PrymeTyme
an example
if one sees that price approaches a res. level.. with a HUGE OFFER side , ie making the market "look" weak .. but actually u see some contracts hitting the BID
but the BID size refreshes and we stay BID at the price.. u can anticipate something is in the making (breakout) .. yes the market looks weak but we stay BID, we
see a refereshing of the BID u should get suspicios and should be ready or be placed allreayd for abreakout to the longside.... as soon as the OFFER size gets
Pulled.. price breaks resistance... and shoots .. up.. and...
Quoting PrymeTyme
let’s say the market has been moving down all day. It’s approaching a “support” level. Everyone knows it’s a support level.
The average retail, inexperienced trader is thinking “buy support” or “sell after the break”.

So we have some people going long at this level cause it is support, it looks , feels, good to buy here or what ever PA or Pattern ,
Formation , indicator signal service etc.. says so. then all of a sudden price breaks support heavily , because we have some
people selling the break of support , which probably triggered some...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...12#post7696812
  • #31
  • Nov 22, 2014 9:06am Nov 22, 2014 9:06am
Quoting Jenx
An idea that I adopted a while ago was that the forex market operates in a way that is in opposition to how traditional markets operate in relation to demand and supply. My thinking was,and is, that the exchange market, unlike the stock market, can only survive if it always moves against the majority.Therefore ,the more buyers come into the market the lower price will fall until there becomes an imbalance. This obviously happens when stops are hit,turning those buys into sells, buyers can't stand the pain any longer ,relinquishing their buy orders...
No wonder we "get along"...

I've worked on what you're describing for years....and it's true in my opinion. the 'herd' has listened to what their broker wants them to know so that the broker's interest is catered to, not the traders.

https://www.evernote.com/shard/s22/s...SDTracking.png
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #32
  • Nov 22, 2014 9:40am Nov 22, 2014 9:40am
Buy under lows and sell above highs
  • #33
  • Nov 22, 2014 9:41am Nov 22, 2014 9:41am
Quoting GDR3k
Buy under lows and sell above highs
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #34
  • Nov 22, 2014 10:43am Nov 22, 2014 10:43am
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} No wonder we "get along"... I've worked on what you're describing for years....and it's true in my opinion. the 'herd' has listened to what their broker wants them to know so that the broker's interest is catered to, not the traders. {image}
I also read your stuff and we definitely think along the same lines. I actually have a "losers profile" loaded onto my chart. It involves macd, rsi, and a couple of moving averages.This gives me an idea of when the herd will be itching to get in.Its then just a matter of waiting for them to go into huge drawdown. Takes a certain shift of psyche to view it consistently though.
Your chart above is interesting.How exactly have you set it up?
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #35
  • Edited 11:36am Nov 22, 2014 10:58am | Edited 11:36am
I have a mate who is an institutional trader in London.It was he who shifted my whole thinking.
He has a really good take on the whole thing.
When we first met I had only recently started trading.I was having spectacular results on demo and it was he who said get off demo asap. You don't need it anymore as you now know the process of operating your platform and thats all that demo is good for.Go live and start small.Keep doing what your doing and when you blow it we'll chat.
Of course I did what I was doing on demo and did indeed blow my account.Only a few hundred quid but it was tough to take as I thought I'd cracked it.
We went to the rugby and then out for a few beers and I discovered his whole ethos.
VaBikePacker , you'll find this really interesting.
It was hard for me to comprehend at first, but basically his view is that those patterns that you see on the charts are there because the majority of money DIDNT trade it.Had they done so that pattern would never have materialised.This is why when those same patterns start to occur they rarely manifest themselves into the whole winning pattern as the herd get in on it and it then reverses.When you look back on a chart you obviously don't see the start of the winning patterns occurring as they never materialised. You only see the winning patterns that most were losing on.
This also showed me why never to trust indicators and technical analysis as those are generally compiled from losing data.
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #36
  • Nov 22, 2014 11:13am Nov 22, 2014 11:13am
Quoting Jenx
{quote} I also read your stuff and we definitely think along the same lines. I actually have a "losers profile" loaded onto my chart. It involves macd, rsi, and a couple of moving averages.This gives me an idea of when the herd will be itching to get in.Its then just a matter of waiting for them to go into huge drawdown. Takes a certain shift of psyche to view it consistently though. Your chart above is interesting.How exactly have you set it up?
my whole opinion on trading is in my signature line. "The longer things stay the same, the more they need to change."

...and the more dramatically they usually will...

The chart I posted is actually from a spreadsheet I use. I don't trade so much on price levels, but more on "distance traveled". It's the "level below the level of price" that's very revealing in my opinion. Through this work, I've noticed things, say, on the AU, where the pair has a LONG history of making it's highs/lows for the week in the weds am > thurs mid day period and reverses. happens over and over again...Also not uncommon for the pair to run 85-100 pips and turn...there are exceptions and with good money management all a trade running against you means is that you're closer to right than you have been.

I also use a stupid simple calc to generate, I guess, what most would call pivot points that I track and keep up with progress on.

Since I came back to live trading in April, I've started adding on the same methodology to GA also. I'm finding the method works with any pair you want to apply it to. Getting ready to add on GN too... I don't care to trade the JPYs...probably could with no issue, I just don't care to - I'm into swap payers like you...but I'm also comfy with paying some swap here and there as well...we're here to make money in both directions right? ..swaps are just a cost of business...no big deal as long as you're on the right side..

I'm adapting the method so it's simpler and more efficient so that more pairs can be added.

Cool on your m8 in London - sounds precisely correct.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #37
  • Last Post: Nov 22, 2014 4:12pm Nov 22, 2014 4:12pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} my whole opinion on trading is in my signature line. "The longer things stay the same, the more they need to change." ...and the more dramatically they usually will... The chart I posted is actually from a spreadsheet I use. I don't trade so much on price levels, but more on "distance traveled". It's the "level below the level of price" that's very revealing in my opinion. Through this work, I've noticed things, say, on the AU, where the pair has a LONG history of making it's highs/lows for the week in the weds am > thurs mid day period...
Cheers.Good view. TBH I used to trade pivots and was actually doing ok for a while but I found I was soon getting drawn back into that herd mentality.I now try to stay out of the box.
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
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