Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

I think you are over-complicating things. There are clear rules to draw CP patterns and valleys/peaks. Sometimes I will cover use the shadows as well if it's a single candle, I'll adjust lot size accordingly. There is no rule to consider previous bar or spread, that's just over-complicating what is simple by nature. There are rules for all that, there is a video on how to mechanically draw the zones, that's the way to do it.

Alfonso

Clear like water and usefull as all the nutshell, as always. thanks you (I had only seen webinars > 60 min)

Glad to hear that! It's great to see that all is getting clearer. That's really important, because in order to make any strategy work one needs to fully understand the concepts, they have to be logical and clear so the same scenarios can be extrapolated to other currencies and/or instruments without any further addition to the rules set.

Alfonso

IF THEN SCENARIO on GBP/JPY

1. MN, WK and D1 are up now, it broke higher above last month Highs and previous potential SZ (Supply Zone).
2. There is a new flip zone created there on the D1/WK where we could have some longs on lower timeframes like H4, D1 longs are much lower
3. Flip zone on D1 and WK, price could react to those before dropping all the way down to D1 DZ which would signify weakness if it happens that fast. Price normally continues rallying higher and zones will be revisited in the future. Extreme D1 DZ level is the origin of the whole move up for higher odds
4. Previous H4 DZ at the flip zone could work but too aggressive. There is a stair step ladder formation lower that would require confirmation
5. Nikkei index is now bouncing off MN fresh supply zone

Long bias for medium/long term

Example of a Weekly long trade taken on GBP/NZD. Brand new WK demand levels being formed, nested D1 demand zones within WK zones. Long was the way to go. Holding a couple of trades. Intraday and lower timeframes entries happened as well, but I'm mainly focused on Daily and WK entries so that I have leisure time.

I wanted to share with you a couple of trades on GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD. I'm mainly trading Daily and Weekly supply and demand imbalances now for a few reasons :

1. It matches my way of life, trading should be a way of living, money is secondary, money is nothing if you don't have time to enjoy it and spend it with your loving ones
2. Less stressed trading, much more leisure time
3. News events are out of the equation since I'm trading with the bigger picture's trend

There was a D1 demand zone nested within valid WK demand zone was the D1 entry on the D1 account. The whole Weekly DZ was taken as well on this Weeklly account. Valid D1 demand that broke desceding D1 trendline. Not taken because I was holding 2 trades already.

A similar trade happened on EUR/NZD Weekly demand zone, NZD is weak which gives more support to the longs. Both trades are at breakeven because there are bigger timeframes above, let's see what happens. There were similar shorts on NZD/USD and NZD/CAD, took also NZD/CAD short.

All these trades are following the bigger picture's trend and new imbalances in the strongest direction.

Many thanks. Could I draw this new weekly demand zone? (fresh, not original) Thanks

The whole Weekly DZ was taken as well on this Weeklly account. Valid D1 demand that broke desceding D1 trendline. Not taken because I was holding 2 trades already. {image} {image}



for GBPNZD
the valid D1 demand you mentioned broke the descending Trendline but did not removed any opposing supply. why would it be a tradeable D1 demand ?

Hi all, interesting thread, first post here. I was having trouble reading the SD levels flowchart so created the attached pdf.

The zone you draw has to make 2:1 to prove its strength. It's potential for sure though, since it started a respectable move.

Thanks 1m40th. Do you mean new demand zone, but potential trade until rule 2:1?

Thank you for your answer Alfonso ;-)

There is demand in the zone for sure, otherwise it wouldn't cause this move upwards.
However, until this demand proves its strength by reaching a 2:1 distance, it is very risky to consider it a valid level either for taking a trade on it or taking it into account if it is on a HTF than your entry TF.

thats a valid DZ because that zone broke the descending TL. as per rule the zone break the TL will be consider as valid SZ DZ.

Alfonso what if a level took out a valid opposing one but didn't make 2:1? Is it considered valid?

Rules are very clear about it, 2:1 imbalance to confirm a zone

Alfonso

A new live webinar will be held this Today 10th October.

I comletely forgot to mention it in the thread All those that had subscribed to previous webinars were notified a few days ago. Sorry for that. It will be too late for most of you, but it will be recorded as always.

A new live webinar will be held on Monday 10th November 2014. We'll go through a bunch of currency pairs/instruments and locate trade setups and IF THEN scenarios for longer term trading. Those that have attended previous supply and demand webinars will know what an IF THEN scenario is all about.

 

1. TITLE: Long term trade analysis
2. DATE: Friday, October 17th
3. TIME: 9:00 AM - 10:30 AM CEST | At London open
4. LINK TO JOIN: if you have joined previous webinars, you will have the link on your inbox, else use fill in this form to obtain the link

What will the webinar cover?

1. Longer term position trade analysis. You can use this analysis for lower timeframe entries on H4 and lower
2. We'll use the Sequence and The Realignment to locate setups
3. How to trade with D1 supply and demand imbalances
4. Under which conditions we should hold a trade and why

Hope to see you there if you are available
Cheers,
Alfonso

Hi Alfonso

am new to this thread , would you please tell me what is the latest indicator that used here to draw sup&dem area ??

Hello there!

The indicator has not been updated for quite some time, it can be downloaded by filling out the form at this www.set-and-forget.com site link
It's an indicator that is stable, you have to draw the zones and trendlines manually, it does not draw zones automatically, it just helps you in many senses as described in the videos that explain how to use it.

Cheers,
Alfonso

Today's webinar has been uploaded and can be seen at Set and Forget's supply and demand YouTube channel

On today's webinar we went through some pairs trying to look for bigger timeframes longer term analysis. You can watch the video by visiting this link or clicking on the image lower.

1. Trading with the bigger picture's trend for higher probability. How to apply the rules and find high odds nested supply and demand zones within higher timeframe zones. Going against that would go against the main trend and will not have the best odds. Remember we're talking about longer term position trading, not swing or intraday, you'd need to apply different timeframe sequences for those entries
2. Realignment rules. If the bigger timeframe of our sequence is in consolidation, we can't set and forget our trades against the intermediate timeframe direction. That is, if Monthly is consolidating, Weekly and Daily are down, we are allowed to short as long as opposing Monthly demand zone in the Monthly range takes control, we'd have to wait for confirmation to go long and shorts, trendline breaks, new demand zones, etc
3. Location and what a level accomplished is crucial. A level that is nested within bigger timeframe's imbalances has better odds than one that did not. A level that caused the break of an important zone has higher odds than one that did not
4. Respect the bigger timeframes, don't try to go against a bigger timeframe in control, wait for it to be broken or wait for a bigger retracement before the new attack to the zone happens

A few instruments were analyzed:

1. DOLLAR INDEX. Bullish trend reacting from a bigger timeframe non original supply zone. Long bias, counter-trend shorts for aggressive traders but WK demand zone right below
2. NZD/USD. Monthly trend not up any more, WK and D1 down. Short bias
3. USD/TRY. Monthly and weekly uptrend. No close above Monthly flip zone. Waiting bias, it could retrace further down within Monthly demand zone
4. EUR/CAD. Monthly is got a bullish consolidation and retraced all the way down to a Monthly flip zone, we could have some longs from there if the Weekly market dynamics continue to be bullish and we break higher, else shorts
5. GBP/JPY. Monthly, weekly and Daily are up. Price reacted to higher timeframe ares of demand and Nikkei is also bullish. Yen is highly inversely correlated with the Nikkei index. Long bias
6. GBP/NZD Monthly, weekly and Daily are up. But price is now dropping and will probably break the ascending D1 trendline. We have no fresh levels to the left, it's much lower, we could have further drops, but bullish trend
7. GOLD. Monthly, weekly and Daily downtrend. No close on WK/MN charts underneath previous valid Monthly demand, shorts on D1 lower odds, we need at least WK supply zone
8. IBEX 35 Spanish index. Monthly DZ in control, WK and Daily look like realigning with that bullish trend. Still long bias

Have a great day and week!
My best wishes,
Alfonso

Hi alfonso, thanks for the video it makes sense to me. this is what i feel about GU.

MONTHLY IS DOWN
WEEKLY DOWN
DAILY DOWN



4HR LOOSES MOMENTUM. We wait for price reach the next daily supply level to sell.


1HR Also looses momentum so we wait for price to reach 4HR supply level for a sell.