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Attachments: Always in 4 Hr trend following
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Always in 4 Hr trend following

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 28, 2014 6:40am Oct 28, 2014 6:40am
Hello everyone,

This journal is about how I trade. It is not meant as a teaching thread or a signal generator. This is merely a way for me to keep myself honest and make sure that I adhere to the rules that I have set out for myself.
I trade a portfolio of 5 currencies on the 4 hr chart. I am always in, meaning that on a stopped out position, I will reverse to the opposite side.
I have attempted to keep a basket of non correlated pairs that do not move alike....I have tried to keep the correlations under 80 and ideally under 60.
EURCAD EURJPY GBPJPY GBPNZD USDJPY
EURCAD 100 57.3 -62 -49.3 -68.9
EURJPY 57.3 100 -25.8 -27.4 -17
GBPJPY -62 -25.8 100 31.9 61.4
GBPNZD -49.3 -27.4 31.9 100 69.6
USDJPY -68.9 -17 61.4 69.6 100


As you can see from the weekly correlation chart above, we have a mix of pairs that that are not highly correlated and should produce the desired results from the system itself and not be market dependent for one way moves.

The system itself, based on the nature of trend following methodologies, does not have a high win rate. It has historically produced about 48% winners.
Where the system makes it's money is in the Win / Loss ratio. the system historically produces about 3.75 to 1 win to loss.
This is a method that requires patience. the average trade length right now is about 4.5 days. It very much requires discipline to simply sit and wait.

This methodology also has large and sometimes very large stops / reverse points....meaning 100+ pips.

On the flip side, this method has in the last 90 days produced several winners that are several hundred pips....and a couple over 400 pips. This is where we get paid, if we will simply watch and wait.

I will be posting charts as I go along.
For those who are curious please feel free to watch along as this journey continues.

The current portfolio positions as of this morning are:

EUR/JPY: LONG from 137.01
GBP/JPY: LONG from 173.67
USD/JPY : LONG from 107.98 (stopped and reversed this morning)
GBP/NZD: SHORT from 2.0397
EUR/CAD : LONG from 1.4251

Many Pips !
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #2
  • Oct 28, 2014 8:36am Oct 28, 2014 8:36am
A couple of the charts...will add the others later
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY.png Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD.png Size: 35 KB
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #3
  • Oct 28, 2014 10:29am Oct 28, 2014 10:29am
EUR/CAD chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.png Size: 84 KB
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #4
  • Oct 28, 2014 1:04pm Oct 28, 2014 1:04pm
I'm glad you have started this thread. Your posts back in 2008 on the Peaks and valleys thread really helped me.Thanks.
Are your trades recently that you have posted on Claudia's thread using this method?
Could you tell us what triggers an entry and a TP?
Cheers,Bogus.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #5
  • Oct 28, 2014 3:09pm Oct 28, 2014 3:09pm
Quoting bogus
I'm glad you have started this thread. Your posts back in 2008 on the Peaks and valleys thread really helped me.Thanks. Are your trades recently that you have posted on Claudia's thread using this method? Could you tell us what triggers an entry and a TP? Cheers,Bogus.
Bogus,
Thanks for the kind words. Yes, I have posted a few of my trades on Claudia's thread.
As far as entries etc, we will get to that as we move along, but primarily I want to keep myself on track....we all need the mental part much more that the actual system parts .


Many Pips
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #6
  • Oct 28, 2014 8:09pm Oct 28, 2014 8:09pm
Quoting swingtrade65
{quote} Bogus, Thanks for the kind words. Yes, I have posted a few of my trades on Claudia's thread. As far as entries etc, we will get to that as we move along, but primarily I want to keep myself on track....we all need the mental part much more that the actual system parts . Many Pips
Fair enough. I quite agree.
Green pips to you.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #7
  • Oct 29, 2014 10:41am Oct 29, 2014 10:41am
A couple of positions stopped and reversed

EUR/JPY: LONG from 137.01...(still long +90...stop moved to +36)
GBP/JPY: LONG from 173.67 (Still long +80 stop moved to B/E)
USD/JPY : LONG from 107.98..... (Still long +8 )
GBP/NZD: SHORT from 2.0397 ....(Still short +108)
EUR/CAD : Short from 1.4172 (reversed from long at 1.4251... - 79)


Will post some charts a little later

Many Pips
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #8
  • Oct 29, 2014 12:36pm Oct 29, 2014 12:36pm
I want to talk about why I got stopped out of the EUR/CAD with a 79 pip loss when I had a ~ 50 pip gain in this pair.

The answer is really really simple....My Rules Told Me To!

I have a couple of questions to ponder for anyone reading this.
1) What is the only way to get a 150 or 200+ pip gain?
2)What is the only required trait to get those type of gains

My answer 1) Be willing to just sit with a 70 or 80 pip gain and do nothing but wait, if that is what your proven rules tell you to do. You have to be willing to watch a good size portion if not all of your gains disappear in order to have the opportunity to be there for the next move in your direction.
My answer 2) Confidence in your system that allows you to be patient enough to sit through the ups and downs to realize the full potential of a trade.

I know based on all of the 20 pip systems I see on these boards that 95% of those traders are not willing to watch 30 pips disappear. This is the absolute bottom line of trend following....sit and wait

Just my .02

Many Pips!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.png Size: 45 KB
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #9
  • Oct 31, 2014 1:43am Oct 31, 2014 1:43am
Quoting swingtrade65
I want to talk about why I got stopped out of the EUR/CAD with a 79 pip loss when I had a ~ 50 pip gain in this pair. The answer is really really simple....My Rules Told Me To! I have a couple of questions to ponder for anyone reading this. 1) What is the only way to get a 150 or 200+ pip gain? 2)What is the only required trait to get those type of gains My answer 1) Be willing to just sit with a 70 or 80 pip gain and do nothing but wait, if that is what your proven rules tell you to do. You have to be willing to watch a good size portion if not...
Hi swingtrade65. Good thread. I like swing trades & more so long term trades. For me it's swing trades on the 4H & long term on the daily & above.
I think you got stopped out on this trade because you broke your own rules. 100+ SL. If you had a 100 pip SL & if you were to draw trend lines to show direction changes you would have got out in profit.
To make it easier to see direction changes, I use the Heiken Ashi & the 3 candle rule.( nobody knows that rule 'cos I made it up myself. LOL. 3 candles past the trend line with the third clear of the line. it also pays to have a target BEFORE you take the trade. But thats another story using standard candles & MLs.
Hope this helps. Cheers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADH4.png Size: 33 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #10
  • Oct 31, 2014 1:46am Oct 31, 2014 1:46am
A quick update on the portfolio

As of last update:
EUR/JPY: LONG from 137.01...(still long +90...stop moved to +36)
GBP/JPY: LONG from 173.67 (Still long +80 stop moved to B/E)
USD/JPY : LONG from 107.98..... (Still long +8 )
GBP/NZD: SHORT from 2.0397 ....(Still short +108)
EUR/CAD : Short from 1.4172 (reversed from long at 1.4251... - 79)


CURRENT

EUR/JPY: Long from 137.01 (still holding + 272...stop moved to +50)
GBP/JPY: Long from 173.67 (still holding +375...stop moved to 175)
USD/JPY: Long from 107.98 (still holding +309...stop moved to 109.42)
GBP/NZD: Long from 2.0425 (stopped out of previous short on spike @ -28)
EUR/CAD: Short from 1.4172 (still holding +76 stop moved to +12)
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #11
  • Oct 31, 2014 1:54am Oct 31, 2014 1:54am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hi swingtrade65. Good thread. I like swing trades & more so long term trades. For me it's swing trades on the 4H & long term on the daily & above. I think you got stopped out on this trade because you broke your own rules. 100+ SL. If you had a 100 pip SL & if you were to draw trend lines to show direction changes you would have got out in profit. To make it easier to see direction changes, I use the Heiken Ashi & the 3 candle rule.( nobody knows that rule 'cos I made it up myself. LOL. 3 candles past the trend line with the third clear...
KiwiOz....Thanks for the Input !! All feedback is appreciated. The stop out was a direct result of sticking to my rules. I dont use trendlines to determine entries or exits. It is not very much more complex than that, but a different set of rules altogether.

I totally agree with your outlook on timeframes. I use the larger timeframes, weekly and monthly to determine direction, the I use the 4 hr for all trade entry.


Many pips!


EDIT: and I really like the color scheme on your charts! makes things easy to see
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #12
  • Oct 31, 2014 2:01am Oct 31, 2014 2:01am
Hey mate. Why have you got this thread in the Trading Journals Thread.?? You will get much more participation in the Interactive Trading Thead. I only found you by accident.
Money Makes Money
  • #13
  • Oct 31, 2014 2:29am Oct 31, 2014 2:29am
Quoting KiwiOz
Hey mate. Why have you got this thread in the Trading Journals Thread.?? You will get much more participation in the Interactive Trading Thead. I only found you by accident.
Very valid question there Kiwi...and I dont really have an answer other than the original intent was to keep myself in check with my rules.....something to think about...
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #14
  • Oct 31, 2014 12:31pm Oct 31, 2014 12:31pm
WOW...what a day guys....it is days like these that only happen once or twice a year that keep you coming back for more and make the weekly grind to meet your goals so much fun.

So, the before picture...
EUR/JPY: Long from 137.01 (still holding + 272...stop moved to +50)
GBP/JPY: Long from 173.67 (still holding +375...stop moved to 175)
USD/JPY: Long from 107.98 (still holding +309...stop moved to 109.42)
GBP/NZD: Long from 2.0425 (stopped out of previous short on spike @ -28)
EUR/CAD: Short from 1.4172 (still holding +76 stop moved to +12)

As of now:

EUR/JPY: Long from 137.01 ( took 1/2 position off at + 299...still holding the other 1/2 @ +338...locked in +200 with moved stop)
GBP/JPY: Long from 173.67 ( took 1/2 position off at +400...still holding 1/2 @ +546....locked in +300 with moved stop)
USD/JPY: Long from 107.98 ( took 1/2 position off at +200...still holding 1/2 @ +393....locked in +200 with moved stop)
GBP/NZD: Long from 2.0425 ( still holding position @ +110...no stop move)
EUR/CAD: Short from 1.4172 ( still holding position @ +36...no stop move)



Many Pips
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #15
  • Nov 3, 2014 11:33am Nov 3, 2014 11:33am
Daily update for Mondays action

As of Friday update:

EUR/JPY: Long from 137.01 ( took 1/2 position off at + 299...still holding the other 1/2 @ +338...locked in +200 with moved stop)
GBP/JPY: Long from 173.67 ( took 1/2 position off at +400...still holding 1/2 @ +546....locked in +300 with moved stop)
USD/JPY: Long from 107.98 ( took 1/2 position off at +200...still holding 1/2 @ +393....locked in +200 with moved stop)
GBP/NZD: Long from 2.0425 ( still holding position @ +110...no stop move)
EUR/CAD: Short from 1.4172 ( still holding position @ +36...no stop move)

As of 6:30pm CET Monday

EUR/JPY: Long from 137.01 ( still holding 1/2 position +530...stop moved to +300)
GBP/JPY: Long from 173.67 ( still holding 1/2 position +844....stop moved to lock in +500)
USD/JPY: Long from 107.98 ( still holding 1/2 position +800...stop moved to lock in +500)
GBP/NZD: Long from 2.0425 (still long + 257...stop moved to 2.0517)
EUR/CAD: Short from 1.4172 ( still short + 27....stop @ break even)

new update tomorrow evening CET time ( Germany)
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #16
  • Nov 3, 2014 12:28pm Nov 3, 2014 12:28pm
good morning,

you are taking the direction from the monthly and weekly charts for your trades...........

the long-term trend is up, you take a long on 4H chart, get stopped out and now you reverse the trade and go short.

is this not against the long-term trend?
  • #17
  • Nov 3, 2014 1:41pm Nov 3, 2014 1:41pm
Quoting yonnie
good morning, you are taking the direction from the monthly and weekly charts for your trades........... the long-term trend is up, you take a long on 4H chart, get stopped out and now you reverse the trade and go short. is this not against the long-term trend?
Yonnie.... I am not sure exactly what you are asking. Yes...I mentioned the weekly and monthly in a post when referring to a question from KiwiOz. They do determine the overall trend, but When a signal is given, I take it...no questions asked.

I dont pick and choose which signals to take, they all are valid from my perspective and many will be countertrend for a period of time and thats OK. I do not try to filter the signals, only to have a good understanding of the overall bigger picture. Sometimes those turn out to be at the trend change and will be significant winners.

As I said from the beginning, this is primarily for my benefit and to help keep myself accountable


Many pips!
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #18
  • Nov 6, 2014 12:31pm Nov 6, 2014 12:31pm
Hey ST, how's it going?
I assume you are long U/J,E/J,G/J and G/N and short E/C?
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #19
  • Nov 6, 2014 12:36pm Nov 6, 2014 12:36pm
Quoting bogus
Hey ST, how's it going? I assume you are long U/J,E/J,G/J and G/N and short E/C?
Hello Bogus!....You would be correct sir in your assumptions...
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #20
  • Nov 6, 2014 1:26pm Nov 6, 2014 1:26pm
Quoting swingtrade65
{quote} Hello Bogus!....You would be correct sir in your assumptions...
Cool. I'm following along a demo. I'm short E/Y my live account.
I'd like to be able to trade higher timeframes and free up a bit of time away from the computer.
Cheers.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
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