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  • #20,121
  • Oct 30, 2014 8:33am Oct 30, 2014 8:33am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Haha, im not sure about 4454..Who knows what could happen meanwhile? I just dont like long term projections, they are very inaccurate due to macro/micro economical surges and unexpected world events.

i understand... a previous post i made on here was 1.31 before 1.4150 which happened.. i could well have been wrong but i like to keep the mindset that 'its no coincidence'... i have been better at this game because of it... i say long to 1.4454.. look everyone is shouting 1.23 and 1.20... this is how market screws with you.. maybe it'll take a year or more but as long as 1.25 doesn't break - that is the story for now
  • #20,122
  • Nov 3, 2014 6:11am Nov 3, 2014 6:11am
Today we might see nice AUDUSD shorts. Will post the analysis in next 1h
  • #20,123
  • Nov 3, 2014 7:00am Nov 3, 2014 7:00am
Quoting T@rantula
Today we might see nice AUDUSD shorts. Will post the analysis in next 1h
Yes, probably around 8770-8780 level can provide one. But Aud news ahead, indecisive of.
  • #20,124
  • Nov 3, 2014 7:13am Nov 3, 2014 7:13am
AUDUSD has a nice confluence around 8755-65 region. We can spot Hidden Bearish Divergence, which is a sign of bearish continuation, Inner Trend line, previous breakout and 50.0-61.8 fib of the divergence swing down. Above we see H3, DPP and 78.6 fib which should provide strong resistance. Target is 8675.

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  • #20,125
  • Nov 4, 2014 3:33am Nov 4, 2014 3:33am
Quoting T@rantula
AUDUSD has a nice confluence around 8755-65 region. We can spot Hidden Bearish Divergence, which is a sign of bearish continuation, Inner Trend line, previous breakout and 50.0-61.8 fib of the divergence swing down. Above we see H3, DPP and 78.6 fib which should provide strong resistance. Target is 8675. {image}
We got price at 8735, before it dropped. Seems to be that 8340 is indeed very strong resistance. Last month was all about selling 8840.
  • #20,126
  • Edited 3:53am Nov 4, 2014 3:40am | Edited 3:53am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} We got price at 8735, before it dropped. Seems to be that 8340 is indeed very strong resistance. Last month was all about selling 8840.
closed long.. expecting down.. or maybe too early..
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  • #20,127
  • Nov 4, 2014 4:12am Nov 4, 2014 4:12am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} We got price at 8735, before it dropped. Seems to be that 8340 is indeed very strong resistance. Last month was all about selling 8840.
But the gap is not yet closed, may not be so important. But It needs to come to 8770 atleast to close the gap. I still see near to 8780.
  • #20,128
  • Nov 4, 2014 5:13am Nov 4, 2014 5:13am
Quoting bolehbah69
{quote} closed long.. expecting down.. or maybe too early.. {image}
Yep it hit the short target after it retraced a bit. Id careful on longs..

Quoting kalyan
{quote} But the gap is not yet closed, may not be so important. But It needs to come to 8770 atleast to close the gap. I still see near to 8780.
So far, we have so called "runaway gap " on couple of those pairs. Trend is still to the short side.
  • #20,129
  • Nov 4, 2014 6:38am Nov 4, 2014 6:38am
just speculation
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  • #20,130
  • Nov 4, 2014 6:47am Nov 4, 2014 6:47am
Quoting bolehbah69
just speculation {image}
1 2 3 pattern- powerful. Yes if the gap closes that zone is also very good for shorting. 8755-75 is still good for shorting. That what you have on your chart is inner trend line- one of my favorite trend lines.
  • #20,131
  • Nov 5, 2014 2:51am Nov 5, 2014 2:51am
There has been an increased volatility on some pairs. So far it seems that USDCHF wants to proceed further up to test 9680 region. Pullback to 9575-80 (POC1) or 9555-65 (POC2) could give us fresh buying on this pair as it seems that both fundamentals and techs are aligned. History of buyers especially at POC2, Hidden bullish divergence, L4 and Fib levels are making great zone for any fresh buying. If the pair retraces it will also be a good r:r as stops are placed around 9535, just below 61.8.
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  • #20,132
  • Nov 5, 2014 3:09am Nov 5, 2014 3:09am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Yep it hit the short target after it retraced a bit. Id careful on longs.. {quote} So far, we have so called "runaway gap " on couple of those pairs. Trend is still to the short side.

You see...No longs in strong trends. Trend is strong on this pair also.
  • #20,133
  • Nov 5, 2014 4:04am Nov 5, 2014 4:04am
ALso.. pay attention to USDJPY 114.50-70. We might see selling up there.
  • #20,134
  • Nov 5, 2014 7:26am Nov 5, 2014 7:26am
Quoting T@rantula
ALso.. pay attention to USDJPY 114.50-70. We might see selling up there.
I see 114.760. But petrified to short here, because of the previous massive up move.
  • #20,135
  • Nov 5, 2014 7:37am Nov 5, 2014 7:37am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} You see...No longs in strong trends. Trend is strong on this pair also.
you are right
  • #20,136
  • Nov 5, 2014 9:39am Nov 5, 2014 9:39am
Quoting kalyan
{quote} I see 114.760. But petrified to short here, because of the previous massive up move.
Correct! Its still trying to sell. 70 was a good level for a sell attempt.
  • #20,137
  • Nov 5, 2014 9:42am Nov 5, 2014 9:42am
Hi T, what's the target for USD JPY sell?
  • #20,138
  • Nov 5, 2014 4:09pm Nov 5, 2014 4:09pm
Quoting margin_stop
Hi T, what's the target for USD JPY sell?
I am itching to sell right now at 114.65, but Nikkei good performance is bothering me. It might release some bulls tonight.
  • #20,139
  • Nov 5, 2014 5:31pm Nov 5, 2014 5:31pm
Quoting GoldenCaviar
{quote} I am itching to sell right now at 114.65, but Nikkei good performance is bothering me. It might release some bulls tonight.
Exactly.

Quoting margin_stop
Hi T, what's the target for USD JPY sell?

Technical target is 111.50 but we wont see it in next 2 days. Remember ADP results are wind in the back for NFP prediction. I sold at 114.70 only to be stopped out for +20 pips.

Technical retracement hasnt started yet.
  • #20,140
  • Nov 6, 2014 3:49am Nov 6, 2014 3:49am
USDJPY is trapped in a strong ascending channel and even fundamentals are aligned with techs. Thats why we should not expect any big retracement prior to NFP results. From technical standpoint USDJPY has 3 important POCs. The first POC is the 114.20 to 114.30 zone and it marks L3, DPP and 50.0 fib of the last swing. Also POC1 is very close to the channel bottom, making up for additional confluence. POC2 should only be touched if channel gets broken to the downside where we see deeper retracement level 88.6 % fib and previous buyers. POC2 comes around 113.40-50 region. Target for 1st POC is 115.50 for 2nd POC is 114.30 as the first target and 115.50 as the 2nd target.
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