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The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #50,621
  • Quote
  • Edited 3:06am Nov 3, 2014 2:31am | Edited 3:06am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} how the tape fools people.

1st fear 1.25
then vibrate 1.23

you look at the charts you see euro cracks 1.25 decisively?
what a lie. they thinks i stupid?


regards

take a close look at the cross ec
seems some one is buying more than selling?
only they playing elsewhere. while waiting the ducks arrive?
no play elsewhere?

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Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi jacque, well, it is the dance on the smaller time frames, thats is why i guess elliot has his degree of the many many cycles embedded in each other, just the scope for analysis is defined by the trader according to his stamina to cope with the management strategy. remember the video of the wiggle by fti? http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...liott_wave.svg the fear and greed, i guess is what gann refers to as the natural law, as well as the law of vibration, first the natural law acts, then the law of vibration...
The Elliott stuff is not as simple as this chart makes out so far as I can tell - as larger corrections are made of complex sub patterns - just look at lots of people's elliott charts - all different - and I have watched when the world said oh it is going this way defo on Elliott while market did what market wants. Elliott to me is just not that simple - but of course there are waves inside waves look at candle patterns they must be a wave pattern in another chart. I am not good at counting stuff now as often I see start of A is abc ie 123 wave and then B and then very long C wave which some would call a trend - si it is just not so simple - unless I have just got it all wrong but large triangles 5 x 3 wave structures are complex lower down.

Elliott counts mess with my head a bit - the feel not so much mess with my head.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
ok lor force 1.23 happen lor, my friend. i can see.

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regards
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Quoting fti
whats new? forgot the emperor moth story already? {image}

No never forget Phil whip me about that - just sucker for a good story - spies everywhere
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #50,625
  • Quote
  • Edited 3:38am Nov 3, 2014 3:08am | Edited 3:38am
ok where's my bench.
The girls have i also need.

oooops . need think carefully.
can't have everything the girls have hor.
moment pls, need ask hello kitty.


http://fc01.deviantart.net/fs47/f/20...by_edinaus.jpg
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Quoting fti
{quote} 1st fear 1.25 then vibrate 1.23 you look at the charts you see euro cracks 1.25 decisively? what a lie. they thinks i stupid? regards take a close look at the cross ec seems some one is buying more than selling? only they playing elsewhere. while waiting the ducks arrive? no play elsewhere? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NPKjD0FjLA
well, seems there is still some support present at 1.25, but with a strong gap down, so, makes me wonder why they gap so strongly down, no orders between that gap, makes me wonder if they are looking for people to offload to first, though if the down trend ensues with strong sticks i'd be still inclined to short the smaller tfs, but i thinking, is outside day island reversal possible? i guess id wait alittle more then see what happens.
Quoting alexandria
{quote} The Elliott stuff is not as simple as this chart makes out so far as I can tell - as larger corrections are made of complex sub patterns - just look at lots of people's elliott charts - all different - and I have watched when the world said oh it is going this way defo on Elliott while market did what market wants. Elliott to me is just not that simple - but of course there are waves inside waves look at candle patterns they must be a wave pattern in another chart. I am not good at counting stuff now as often I see start of A is abc ie 123...
erm, i don't really count waves, if it goes to 100 waves, i would be long for 100 waves, but what was interesting in the picture was the fractal nature of the markets, that what elliot was doing was like the candle sticks, its all in how u divide the time, but that in itself is problematic right? so thats why form read with respect to the hip and lop points at these turning points is more than enough, anymore and it may become predictive. all elliot has to do is reduce the time frame say maybe 1minute and we get 1000x998 wave maybe? thats where the fallacy is, being too rigid about the time frame, and taking out of context the original usage of the method.

i think fti mentioned before that the later works of elliot wave theory has problems in being predictive as to how many waves the markets should do like the 5 x 3 structure, which is a fallacy like u mentioned, the markets does what they do, elliot simply observed the data which he has and concluded so, but is not necessarily so, if we can theorize that, if we have a manipulator, he can manipulate the markets to have 10x8 waves all the time right? so if that is the case, then that means the 5x3 structure is just a small subset of observed waves with some kind of statistical validity during that time period elliot obtained, and studied the data.
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} erm, i don't really count waves, if it goes to 100 waves, i would be long for 100 waves, but what was interesting in the picture was the fractal nature of the markets, that what elliot was doing was like the candle sticks, its all in how u divide the time, but that in itself is problematic right? so thats why form read with respect to the hip and lop points at these turning points is more than enough, anymore and it may become predictive. all elliot has to do is reduce the time frame say maybe 1minute and we get 1000x998 wave maybe? thats...
ahh thank you for the explanation - very clear what you are saying now - much appreciated.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
need lay down, support head high high and think.
can borrow pls?
after finish i promise lend you back.
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Quoting alexandria
{quote} ahh thank you for the explanation - very clear what you are saying now - much appreciated.
no prob, glad to help
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} well, seems there is still some support present at 1.25, but with a strong gap down, so, makes me wonder why they gap so strongly down, no orders between that gap, makes me wonder if they are looking for people to offload to first, though if the down trend ensues with strong sticks i'd be still inclined to short the smaller tfs, but i thinking, is outside day island reversal possible? i guess id wait alittle more then see what happens.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
Quoting priceaction1
{quote}
Quoting fti
{quote} take a close look at the cross ec seems some one is buying more than selling? only they playing elsewhere. while waiting the ducks arrive? no play elsewhere?
ec = euro cable cross?
me and BB king are waitin.....

jpy and cable goin same way?
check out the terrain - follow never lead
FTI, How r u doing? l tried to send u a private msg but it seems like u disabled them.

Sorry this post is out of topic.

I work for a major bank , and I need your help to qualify for working as fixed income trader in Global Markets Team.

What books should I study to get myself qualified?

Appreciate you mention some references as a start.
Enter Signature
  • #50,636
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:21am Nov 3, 2014 4:07am | Edited 4:21am
I promise.
cross my ...... and hope ..........
promise. ai yo......
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Quoting CHFJunkie
FTI, How r u doing? l tried to send u a private msg but it seems like u disabled them. Sorry this post is out of topic. I work for a major bank , and I need your help to qualify for working as fixed income trader in Global Markets Team. What books should I study to get myself qualified? Appreciate you mention some references as a start.
Marcia stigum.

major tier hor, my bill very BIG leh.


regards
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
{quote} ec = euro cable cross?
That is how I read it....

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check out the terrain - follow never lead
Quoting alexandria
{quote} That is how I read it.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNvl-p4n3jI
ooooooou , lovely.

encore.

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regards
Quoting fti
{quote} ooooooou , lovely. encore. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4OXrmxDp44 regards
cool - "riding with the king" on my cd here
check out the terrain - follow never lead
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