EUR/USD: Sell-Off Overdone; We Stick To Our Long - Credit Agricole | Forex Factory

EUR/USD: Sell-Off Overdone; We Stick To Our Long - Credit Agricole | Forex Factory

EUR/USD: Sell-Off Overdone; We Stick To Our Long - Credit Agricole

From efxnews.com

Following yesterday’s EUR/USD decline many have questioned our conviction regarding the long EUR/USD trade we entered October 10. In short, we are sticking with this tactical trade into year-end. Our initial motivation was the anticipation of a contrarian (i.e. EUR/USD favourable) move in short-term spreads. From its October 6 nadir this spread move did occur lifting EUR/USD to its October 15 high before stalling on renewed Eurozone concerns. Thereafter however EUR/USD pressure resumed, most recently accentuated overnight by a seeming hawkish turn in the FOMC statement. Even so, we are reluctant to capitulate given ... (full story)

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Oct 31, 2014 7:11am

They may have a point though.

E/U has been falling 5 months from 1.3995 - there is quite a room for big upward correction before any down-trend could be resumed again - it might even get to 1.33.

I see the same pattern in cable - tried to breach the 1.5850 support but 3 times it jumps back. Cable might well go to 1.65 or 1.67 also. Just avoid "mechanical" shorting with crowds. And yes - hedge funds were quite wrong about how the dollar would get high after Oct-2013 and stocks will tank - we all had seen what actually happened until June-2014.

Safe trading!

Nov 2, 2014 2:13am

Quoting bdebaere

Disliked

I agree, though this bank went long a little early for my taste: the 10th of October. I will be looking for longs on this pair starting next week.

Ignored

It is a simple risk assessment - is it safer to short euro after such a big fall, knowing that it doesn't go under 1.22 for a long time, or tilt your chance estimation toward long position. Of course I don't exclude the E/U pair to touch 1.22, but yet in pure statistical risk estimation - I would not short it right now.

Most of the articles advocating for shorting are citing some alleged "net outflow from investors" - but frankly - we had heard the same when gold was 1650 - that Chinese are buying and gold will go to 1800 - we all remember what happened...

Oct 31, 2014 7:14pm

This is off-chart analysis, which I am not a fan of. Even they point out that they are "reluctant to capitulate", indicating that there is at least a hint of doubt in their minds as to the soundness of the premise on which they are basing their trade position. Moreover, their stop acknowledges at least a possibility that it will continue substantially downward, which is in keeping with the trend and the fundamental view that the Eurozone is a complete train wreck ... .

Oct 31, 2014 7:30am

if their order book is unstable and they are loosing money they try to manipulate the market...

When you place your order the order goes to them.. if you are trading on a serious broker they use agency model and they pass the orders to the banks as liquity provider...

So i think is market manipulation

Oct 31, 2014 7:34am

All hybrid brokers will send the trades of their profitable traders out to their liquidity providers. This flow is known as ‘toxic flow’, because these are profitable traders and no one wants to bet against them correct?

When banks and other LPs receive these toxic flow, their trade rejection rates are higher. Some of your trades will be rejected by the banks or LPs (known as ‘last look’) and you will receive a worse price, because you will be filled at the next best price.

if the banks are loosing too much money they provide false information to manipulate the market to find dumb people to pass their risks!

Oct 31, 2014 4:44pm

Quoting sharabela

Disliked

Do not know sir. All the big analysts like them keep anticipate market which does not make sense. I remember some analysts kept crying market will go to 1.50000 when EU was at 1.30000.

Here we are EU is at 1.25000.

Ignored

If I were an analysts, I would keep my mouth shut and let people think that I am smart, instead of opening it, thus proving them all wrong.

Nov 1, 2014 11:04am

Quoting insomniawawa

Disliked

No, insider trading is when you trade using confidential information.

Ignored

Why did you start your statement with a disagreeing "NO", then basically say the same thing he said, just in a different way, thus agreeing with him?

I love the Polish.

Oct 31, 2014 8:34am

Quoting ktlouitsile

Disliked

The sooner you accept that nobody knows were the Market is going, the sooner you will trust your system and you will grow in confidence and you might start making money..Remember this is anybody knows where the market is going its called INSIDER TRADING and they should be in jail..

Ignored

No, insider trading is when you trade using confidential information.

Nov 1, 2014 5:46am

Quoting michaelpelly

Disliked

They may have a point though.

E/U has been falling 5 months from 1.3995 - there is quite a room for big upward correction before any down-trend could be resumed again - it might even get to 1.33.

I see the same pattern in cable - tried to breach the 1.5850 support but 3 times it jumps back. Cable might well go to 1.65 or 1.67 also. Just avoid "mechanical" shorting with crowds. And yes - hedge funds were quite wrong about how the dollar would get high after Oct-2013 and stocks will tank - we all had seen what actually happened until June-2014.

Safe...

Ignored

I agree, though this bank went long a little early for my taste: the 10th of October. I will be looking for longs on this pair starting next week.

Oct 31, 2014 7:04am

Yeah, and the 'analysts' said that the Aussie sell off from 1.04 was overdone when it hit 95......but it went on down to 89. Don't listen to any of these clowns...trade it as you see it.

Oct 31, 2014 6:52am

Why are they long, when 75% of the Hedge Funds are EUR/USD Short? This does not make any sense.

Oct 31, 2014 7:29am

this banks are liquity provider aka Market maker, they provide analysis based on theirs book i suppose...

Oct 31, 2014 7:49am

Wow, what a great trade, SL 330 pips, TP 440 pips, R:R 1:1,33 and months of waiting!!! buahaha. If you have billions of USD on your account it's trade for you

Oct 31, 2014 7:34am

The sooner you accept that nobody knows were the Market is going, the sooner you will trust your system and you will grow in confidence and you might start making money..Remember this is anybody knows where the market is going its called INSIDER TRADING and they should be in jail..

Oct 31, 2014 3:52pm

The trade that they want to enter will be executed after all the conditions

At first 1.26500 has to be broken, then it has to be confirmed.

At last a solid buy weekly candle has to be created from 1.26500.

See how many things to wait for. Meanwhile, why should not they just have a target for a break of 1.25000,so that they could easily get to 1.23000.

Oct 31, 2014 3:55pm

Quoting trader121

Disliked

Why are they long, when 75% of the Hedge Funds are EUR/USD Short? This does not make any sense.

Ignored

Do not know sir. All the big analysts like them keep anticipate market which does not make sense. I remember some analysts kept crying market will go to 1.50000 when EU was at 1.30000.

Here we are EU is at 1.25000.

Oct 31, 2014 5:45pm

Quoting insomniawawa

Disliked

Wow, what a great trade, SL 330 pips, TP 440 pips, R:R 1:1,33 and months of waiting!!! buahaha. If you have billions of USD on your account it's trade for you

Ignored

Try this set aside in a demo account 1 lot with this trade as described and then trade 1 lot as many times as you choose during the time it takes to have the first trade complete. When I finally started trading with large stop loss adjusting for total risk I found I stopped out far less and hit those 300 400 pip trades enough that it made me a profitable trader .

Oct 31, 2014 7:58am

I'll buy when the chart shows an uptrend. Up, down - don't care. Just need it to move one way or the other to make $$$.

Trader#53EC

Oct 31, 2014 7:59pm

Parity here we come.There's no economic way that the Euro is worth more than the USD.If it wasn/t for the swap lines from the Fed these guys would be toast already.By the way,the Greek situation is still unresolved.

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Oct 31, 2014 6:48am
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Fundamental Analysis

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