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The Wanderings of Tashkent

  • #101
  • Oct 31, 2014 6:34am Oct 31, 2014 6:34am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} despite sometimes we can correctly predict the direction, i still prefer to consider price random and act accordingly. so i guess taking the profit when see signs of bounce is advisable....
I like your comment.
The reason I asked is to learn KNOWING HOW TO LOSE, in reference to another comment earlier.
Yesterday, I had a significant loss on my USDJPY short, partly because I did not set SL, but mainly due to an inability to abandon a loser. Such a behavior was not the first time, but repeated MANY MANY times before. Yesterday loss, hopefully was the last one of its type and never again.

Quoting tashkent
{quote} hey AdelPC, you are welcome to post here anything you like, we will discuss our trades together and learn from each other but do not ever think giving up worse case scenario open a micro account, do not pay attention to how much money you make at this point. we can start our discussion from the topic on how to lose. this is the most important thing in forex: KNOWING HOW TO LOSE. once you master this, profit will come to you begging to have it
When in doubt, HEDGE
  • #102
  • Oct 31, 2014 7:01am Oct 31, 2014 7:01am
Quoting AdelPC
{quote} I like your comment. The reason I asked is to learn KNOWING HOW TO LOSE, in reference to another comment earlier. Yesterday, I had a significant loss on my USDJPY short, partly because I did not set SL, but mainly due to an inability to abandon a loser. Such a behavior was not the first time, but repeated MANY MANY times before. Yesterday loss, hopefully was the last one of its type and never again. {quote}
losing is inseparable part of the trade. a successful trader is not who knows how to win. a successful trader is who know how to lose, e.i. who has the skill to reduce the damage before one trade destroys him. so you may train yourself excessively on this issue once you master it, you will be invincible. find those 10 exit strategies on both losers and winners.
USDJPY was a no no to short. it is too obvious. if trading against the trend do not stay too long. 5-10 pips profit or whatever you can get, and run as fast as you can. i have been buying it on tops and still winning. this is the power of the trend.
and do not run after winning rate. it is misleading. winning rate means nothing. so do not be afraid to take a loss. you can have 50-50 winning rate but still make tonns of money are have incredible equity curve. think about these
As Above, So Below
  • #103
  • Oct 31, 2014 7:18am Oct 31, 2014 7:18am
ok, here is a live example.
i had a loser on NZDUSD. you can see how price dropped from top after the US news. the size was small enough and i could let it go down up to 500 pips. if it was bigger size i would kill that position soon after the news.
so it dropped and hit the ground. i started buying at bounces with 2-5 times bigger size and taking profits in every 5-10 pips and ALSO reducing the size of the initial loser position by quarter at the tops. now even if it hits the ground again i will be still at breakeven on this pair. not long ago took 10 pip profit with 5 times times bigger position than the original position and reduced the initial size again.
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As Above, So Below
  • #104
  • Edited 7:32am Oct 31, 2014 7:22am | Edited 7:32am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} losing is inseparable part of the trade. a successful trader is not who knows how to win. a successful trader is who know how to lose, e.i. who has the skill to reduce the damage before one trade destroys him. so you may train yourself excessively on this issue once you master it, you will be invincible. find those 10 exit strategies on both losers and winners. USDJPY was a no no to short. it is too obvious. if trading against the trend do not stay too long. 5-10 pips profit or whatever you can get, and run as fast as you can. i have been...
My USDJPY trades... a result of confidence in Ullen's trade call, I might say, and added more positions as I trusted him and then kept holding the losers
What's your view on GBPAUD? Given that AUDUSD is bullish and EUR & GBP bearish, how can anyone not short it? But I find its price action on H1 confusing and there are traders that are confident it will sky rocket.
Besides, RBA rates event next week may trigger a strong pre-news AUD bounce that may cause GBPAUD to plunge below critical support level.

p/s. I did sensed USDJPY was bearish last 2 weeks and that Ullen was correct. But later USDJPY held up in a strange way. I now suspect BOJ insiders have been secretly buying, knowing something was going to happen today.
When in doubt, HEDGE
  • #105
  • Oct 31, 2014 7:28am Oct 31, 2014 7:28am
Quoting tashkent
ok, here is a live example. i had a loser on NZDUSD. you can see how price dropped from top after the US news. the size was small enough and i could let it go down up to 500 pips. if it was bigger size i would kill that position soon after the news. so it dropped and hit the ground. i started buying at bounces with 2-5 times bigger size and taking profits in every 5-10 pips and ALSO reducing the size of the initial loser position by quarter at the tops. now even if it hits the ground again i will be still at breakeven on this pair. not long ago...

why i just do not martingale and keep adding? because i have no clue how further it may drop more. i must accept i have a loser. once realize that the first objective to reduce the loss. coming up with profit is out of question unless you are well versed at reading the moves correctly and clearly seeing what is happening.
As Above, So Below
  • #106
  • Oct 31, 2014 7:32am Oct 31, 2014 7:32am
Quoting AdelPC
{quote} My USDJPY trades... a result of confidence in Ullen's trade call, I might say, and added more positions as I trusted him and then kept holding the losers What's your view on GBPAUD? Given that AUDUSD is bullish and EUR & GBP bearish, how can anyone not short it? But I find its price action on H1 confusing and there are traders that are confident it will sky rocket. Besides, RBA rates event next week may trigger a strong pre-news AUD bounce that may cause GBPAUD to plunge below critical support level.
never ever trade other people's calls. i said that in Ullen's thread too. you do not know how he trades and he does not always trade his own calls. may i see your charts and view on GA first?
As Above, So Below
  • #107
  • Oct 31, 2014 7:45am Oct 31, 2014 7:45am
waiting for opportunity to buy
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As Above, So Below
  • #108
  • Oct 31, 2014 7:51am Oct 31, 2014 7:51am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} never ever trade other people's calls. i said that in Ullen's thread too. you do not know how he trades and he does not always trade his own calls. may i see your charts and view on GA first?
Tried to paste my GA screenshots... attached.
Attached Images
When in doubt, HEDGE
  • #109
  • Oct 31, 2014 8:03am Oct 31, 2014 8:03am
Quoting AdelPC
{quote} Tried to paste my GA screenshots... attached. {image} {image}
i could not see anything tradeable. no clear direction. only good to scalp on 5 min. i do not know maybe others have different ideas.
As Above, So Below
  • #110
  • Oct 31, 2014 8:06am Oct 31, 2014 8:06am
this one looks interesting
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As Above, So Below
  • #111
  • Oct 31, 2014 9:46am Oct 31, 2014 9:46am
Quoting tashkent
this one looks interesting {image}
Yeah, looks like breaking below critical level some days soon. My hunch is CAD as a commodity currency should strengthen with AUD somewhat. It's now weaker than EUR. This seems strange to me. I feel EUR will continue weakening and CAD will fluctuate, causing EURCAD to break below that critical level soon.
I think RBA rates decision next Tuesday will cause AUD to bounce strongly pre-news.
When in doubt, HEDGE
  • #112
  • Oct 31, 2014 9:48am Oct 31, 2014 9:48am
OK. EU sellers trying really hard to invalidate that previous 1H pin bar. no matter whatever they do, time to start building small longs on both eu and au.
As Above, So Below
  • #113
  • Oct 31, 2014 9:55am Oct 31, 2014 9:55am
Quoting tashkent
OK. EU sellers trying really hard to invalidate that pin bar. whatever they do, time to start building small longs on both eu and au.
I read that BOJ decision may cause EUR to continue weakening because of perception ECB may be more inclined to do QE. So I'm not sure EUR will pickup. But AUD & NZD always seem to lose out in a currency war. Whatever happen to RBA & RBNZ saying their currencies are over-valued, their jawboning never work, so much so that RBA is shy about talking down AUD. Hence I would count on EUR & GBP weakening against AUD & NZD over time.
When in doubt, HEDGE
  • #114
  • Oct 31, 2014 10:02am Oct 31, 2014 10:02am
Quoting AdelPC
{quote} I read that BOJ decision may cause EUR to continue weakening because of perception ECB may be more inclined to do QE. So I'm not sure EUR will pickup. But AUD & NZD always seem to lose out in a currency war. Whatever happen to RBA & RBNZ saying their currencies are over-valued, their jawboning never work, so much so that RBA is shy about talking down AUD. Hence I would count on EUR & GBP weakening against AUD & NZD over time.
you might be right on the fundamentals. if you are good at it, you may try position trading which require small size, martingale/averaging, more patience, longer TF - weekly and daily charts. i trade for 20-30 pips average so fundamentals really do not bother me
As Above, So Below
  • #115
  • Oct 31, 2014 11:06am Oct 31, 2014 11:06am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} you might be right on the fundamentals. if you are good at it, you may try position trading which require small size, martingale/averaging, more patience, longer TF - weekly and daily charts. i trade for 20-30 pips average so fundamentals really do not bother me
Unfortunately I cannot control my emotion well enough. Will always end up cutting profit short, closing at big loss at the worst time.
I'd rather learn to scalp successfully.
When in doubt, HEDGE
  • #116
  • Oct 31, 2014 11:11am Oct 31, 2014 11:11am
Currency War do I hear correctly?
Will look for price actions to short EUR & GBP against AUD & NZD.
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=511254
When in doubt, HEDGE
  • #117
  • Oct 31, 2014 11:30am Oct 31, 2014 11:30am
Quoting AdelPC
Currency War do I hear correctly? Will look for price actions to short EUR & GBP against AUD & NZD. http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=511254
sure, if this is what you believe in, it is perfectly fine to short eu and gu against au and nu.
i prefer to stay flexible and not biased against any pair. if i am long now, could be short the next hour. all i care is what is see and perceive from the chart in front of me. i would not blink eye taking long on EURUSD if see a chance despite the news that EU is breaking up or going to hell.
i have ONE OBJECT: MAKE PROFIT. that is why i trade, not work as economist.
As Above, So Below
  • #118
  • Oct 31, 2014 11:59am Oct 31, 2014 11:59am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} sure, if this is what you believe in, it is perfectly fine to short eu and gu against au and nu. i prefer to stay flexible and not biased against any pair. if i am long now, could be short the next hour. all i care is what is see and perceive from the chart in front of me. i would not blink eye taking long on EURUSD if see a chance despite the news that EU is breaking up or going to hell. i have ONE OBJECT: MAKE PROFIT. that is why i trade, not work as economist.
Good point. I totally agree !!
Need to tune my mindset to be a trader.

Good night.
When in doubt, HEDGE
  • #119
  • Oct 31, 2014 12:10pm Oct 31, 2014 12:10pm
Quoting AdelPC
{quote} Good point. I totally agree !! Need to tune my mindset to be a trader. Good night.
exactly, MINDSET!
that comes before everything.
have a great weekend!
As Above, So Below
  • #120
  • Oct 31, 2014 6:57pm Oct 31, 2014 6:57pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} exactly, MINDSET! that comes before everything. have a great weekend!
I like your Illusion trade explorer results.

Couple of years ago I heard an FX trainer commented that to successfully learn to trade, his student must be TEACHABLE.
I observe there are biased, narrow/closed-minded individuals that are UNTEACHABLE in a realistic sense, but never thought I belong in such a category.
Over past 5 years, I believe I have experienced all that there are to experience in FX - all the emotional roller-coaster, $up and mostly $down. It seemed no matter how I try & learn, there could only be failures. Started to think I am indeed a good example of someone unteachable in FX.
It's still very early days, but at least I'm sensing this week could be a turning point - I'm actually starting to get the mindset !!
And I would credit you, you alone for triggering this possibility. Thank you for your generous/open teaching, kind words and also, your commonsense simple approach to trading.
Yes, still very early days... but I have more optimism than ever in becoming a successful trader. ....
When in doubt, HEDGE
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