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  • #8,661
  • Oct 30, 2014 8:47am Oct 30, 2014 8:47am
Quoting infinitus
we are here: EU 2h TF {image}

Hi Friends,

back from some outside activities

let us have a look again at the blue channel

now I zoom to the 15min TF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,662
  • Edited 9:00am Oct 30, 2014 8:48am | Edited 9:00am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} 1.2500 is good defended by 1.2544. 1.2544 indicates today 1.2730 and my target is 1.2993.5 (it's a expanded triangle). If 1.2544 don't hold 1.2500-15 area is on the cards for 1.2993.5. On my system EU can not go lower (1.2500) before we don't hit 1.2900. 1.2900 is key zone atm. Short view: Market will range here now between 1.2600-20 and start an new rallye to 1.2730 when US-Session is open. that is my view. I'm long 1.2544 to 1.2730 today.
Nice mate, that almost totally fits to my view, I got 1.2490/80 as minimum here and do pay attention to recent dailys high atm.
If it can stand above 1.2670/60* I see 1.2960/00 which is close to 1.3080/70. Well time will tell, nice job

Add: I corrected* this one, mistype, sorry.
  • #8,663
  • Oct 30, 2014 8:53am Oct 30, 2014 8:53am
i like these levels

1.2490/80 as minimum here
looking for investors . pm me
  • #8,664
  • Edited 8:55am Oct 30, 2014 8:53am | Edited 8:55am
Quoting kbmoonshinex
{quote} dont dreaming mate.
You´re right if I took that level subjective. I didnt, I just follow numbers, remaining is Money - and Riskmanagement.
So if you ask why it took my attention, its simple: What if those sellers are still holding? Market will be attracted to that price; Reason: Liquidity.

Add: I hope I dont have to mention I can be wrong
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  • #8,665
  • Oct 30, 2014 8:54am Oct 30, 2014 8:54am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} 1.2500 is good defended by 1.2544. 1.2544 indicates today 1.2730 and my target is 1.2993.5 (it's a expanded triangle). If 1.2544 don't hold 1.2500-15 area is on the cards for 1.2993.5. On my system EU can not go lower (1.2500) before we don't hit 1.2900. 1.2900 is key zone atm. Short view: Market will range here now between 1.2600-20 and start an new rallye to 1.2730 when US-Session is open. that is my view. I'm long 1.2544 to 1.2730 today.
have short and i took long here. i see formation not bad for long move
looking for investors . pm me
  • #8,666
  • Oct 30, 2014 8:56am Oct 30, 2014 8:56am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Friends, back from some outside activities let us have a look again at the blue channel now I zoom to the 15min TF {image}
Hi,

C Wave drop is a corrective one - labeled w-x-y and this should be the target of Wave D.

We are now in WAVE E on my view.
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  • #8,667
  • Oct 30, 2014 8:57am Oct 30, 2014 8:57am
EU

2h TF

pink ABCDE

BC = DE

1.618 x A = BE

1,236 x A = BC

AE retraced nearly 90% of the move from 2500 to 2887 (would nicely qualify for a B-wave of an ABC-flat


so let us wait and see, what price will do around 2660 zone with the broken upsloping corrective channel
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,668
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:00am Oct 30, 2014 9:00am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} You´re right if I took that level subjective. I didnt, I just follow numbers, remaining is Money - and Riskmanagement. So if you ask why it took my attention, its simple: What if those sellers are still holding? Market will be attracted to that price; Reason: Liquidity. Add: I hope I dont have to mention I can be wrong {image}
Missed your charts! And i like it............................

This are futures from EURUSD and i say good luck to ALL SELLERS here for 1.22xx etc.....
Attached Image
  • #8,669
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:01am Oct 30, 2014 9:01am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yes completly agree. I think Russia needs raise probably 1.5 maybe even 2% (over 1 year peroid) which is very big but that is only way to not compose severe capital controls and kick dollar out of Russia along with other assets. But then again if USA really is that determined in this economical war to defeat Russia, they could start hiking rates too, rate hike of even 1% in USA would probably put Russian banks out of control so they will be left aloane. So in the end i think there is more to come from this economical war in next year and...

Cuted of EU short -12. Heh went against my own level, didnt wait for it to break. Thats what one gets not following rules
  • #8,670
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:01am Oct 30, 2014 9:01am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Missed your charts! And i like it............................ This are futures from EURUSD and i say good luck to ALL SELLERS here for 1.22xx etc..... {image}
Dat made me laugh mate nice one
  • #8,671
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:15am Oct 30, 2014 9:15am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} You´re right if I took that level subjective. I didnt, I just follow numbers, remaining is Money - and Riskmanagement. So if you ask why it took my attention, its simple: What if those sellers are still holding? Market will be attracted to that price; Reason: Liquidity. Add: I hope I dont have to mention I can be wrong {image}

Hi my friend,

good to see you back


The "hole" in your shown distribution curve marked as excessive selling:


maybe we have to interpret this area in another way, because on long term distributions, this area is a very high volume zone. On my charts the POC is around 3092 +/- 8 pips

So in the move down to this levels, there was trading facilitated just above that level, and when market decided to drive the price lower, the mentioned area was nearly bidless, causing a severe drop.

So we can assume, that the fresh-buyers of EUR above that area were trapped in their positions. Question is: who were the buyers in the area above? Maybe retail trader, then the chance of retesting that area is dim.

If there were many institutional traders trapped, chance is high for a re-visit of the 3092
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  • #8,672
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:20am Oct 30, 2014 9:20am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi my friend, good to see you back The "hole" in your shown distribution curve marked as excessive selling: maybe we have to interpret this area in another way, because on long term distributions, this area is a very high volume zone. On my charts the POC is around 3092 +/- 8 pips So in the move down to this levels, there was trading facilitated just above that level, and when market decided to drive the price lower, the mentioned area was nearly bidless, causing a severe drop. So we can assume, that the fresh-buyers of EUR above that...
Mate it cant be POC because that area from all areas price couldnt hold itself there least of all. I guess I can see your missing link here, write me PM pls.
  • #8,673
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:20am Oct 30, 2014 9:20am
Quoting infinitus
EU 2h TF pink ABCDE BC = DE 1.618 x A = BE 1,236 x A = BC AE retraced nearly 90% of the move from 2500 to 2887 (would nicely qualify for a B-wave of an ABC-flat so let us wait and see, what price will do around 2660 zone with the broken upsloping corrective channel {image}


let us assume, that the pink ABCDE is a leading diagonal (down).

Leading diagonals are relatively rare, so we have a bigger chance of being wrong.

The wave 2 after a leading diagonal normally retraces very deep. We should expect 85% retracement. The 2760 and the 2800 area would look as nice targets then.
  • #8,674
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:33am Oct 30, 2014 9:33am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Mate it cant be POC because that area from all areas price couldnt hold itself there least of all. I guess I can see your missing link here, write me PM pls.

POC's are dependent on the duration of your distribution. As you can see on my two charts I gave with my posting, the long term distribution (864 days time span) shows the 3092 as the POC of a very high volume area (also the POC of the whole distribution is 3213, but they have nearly same underlying volume).

When we have a look at the more near-term data of 160 days, the mentioned 3092 is in no way a POC. It is a "no-business-zone". Traders could not agree on that price zone and they simply pushed the price deeper until agreement was reached.

Since that time, price has formed a new distribution area between 2500 and roughly 2975 as can be seen in the 160 days distribution curve. The POC of this is 2665 +/- 5 pips in my calculation

Funnily enough, this 2665 is round about the location for a retest of the broken upsloping corrective channel
  • #8,675
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:35am Oct 30, 2014 9:35am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} POC's are dependent on the duration of your distribution. As you can see on my two charts I gave with my posting, the long term distribution (864 days time span) shows the 3092 as the POC of a very high volume area (also the POC of the whole distribution is 3213, but they have nearly same underlying volume). When we have a look at the more near-term data of 160 days, the mentioned 3092 is in no way a POC. It is a "no-business-zone". Traders could not agree on that price zone and they simply pushed the price deeper until agreement was reached....

Both POC's and "no-business-zones" are many times prone for a retest
  • #8,676
  • Edited 9:49am Oct 30, 2014 9:45am | Edited 9:49am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Both POC's and "no-business-zones" are many times prone for a retest
Well maybe thats the point. My calculations are based on time, range & volatility. For me a POC is simply a level where price spent more time relative to other levels. And those "no-business-zones" you call are most of the times:

1. Reverse never looks back
2. Continuation never looks back
3. Becoming new POC´s

Add: So by definition, thats why 1.3080/70 cant be a POC.
  • #8,677
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:53am Oct 30, 2014 9:53am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} let us assume, that the pink ABCDE is a leading diagonal (down). Leading diagonals are relatively rare, so we have a bigger chance of being wrong. The wave 2 after a leading diagonal normally retraces very deep. We should expect 85% retracement. The 2760 and the 2800 area would look as nice targets then.
you mean ending diagonal ??? i counted it - and it's not possible on my view

this is my view atm.. incl. GAP filling

WAVE E = Wave D *200% = GAP Close area
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  • #8,678
  • Oct 30, 2014 10:04am Oct 30, 2014 10:04am
long a little 2618
looking for investors . pm me
  • #8,679
  • Oct 30, 2014 10:11am Oct 30, 2014 10:11am
Quoting kbmoonshinex
long a little 2618
Dont think that long was good, you were longing after eaten demand. Structure calls now for another 8-10 pips drop.
http://prntscr.com/51a4vb
  • #8,680
  • Oct 30, 2014 10:18am Oct 30, 2014 10:18am
maybe a pullback in the AUD to 8784/94ish, still like a chance at higher however...if not today, then tomorrow...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
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